Английская Википедия:2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:For Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsNY
The 2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election was a special election held on August 23, 2022.[1] The seat became vacant after incumbent Democratic representative Antonio Delgado resigned on May 25, 2022, to become lieutenant governor of New York.[2][3] Democratic nominee Pat Ryan won a slight victory over Republican nominee Marc Molinaro in what was seen as an upset due to Molinaro's lead in polls and fundraising in the weeks leading to the election.[4]
Candidates
Democratic Party
Nominee
- Pat Ryan, Ulster County executive and candidate for this district in 2018[5]
Declined
- Michelle Hinchey, state senator from the 46th district (endorsed Ryan)[3][6]
- Zephyr Teachout, special advisor in the office of the Attorney General of New York, Fordham University law professor; candidate for governor in 2014, nominee for this district in 2016, candidate for attorney general in 2018 and 2022[2]
Republican Party
Nominee
- Marc Molinaro, Dutchess County executive and former state assemblyman; nominee for governor in 2018[2]
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements boxШаблон:Endorsements box
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | May 5, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[8] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | July 21, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | May 11, 2022 |
Polling
- Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Pat Ryan (D) |
Marc Molinaro (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D) | August 17–22, 2022 | 1,222 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|53% | 2% |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | August 6–8, 2022 | 480 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% | 11% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | July 26–28, 2022 | 407 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | June 29–30, 2022 | 581 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% | 16% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | June 16–20, 2022 | 505 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% | 10% |
- Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | August 6–8, 2022 | 480 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | 12% |
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of August 3, 2022 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Amount raised | Amount spent | Cash on hand |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Marc Molinaro (R) | $1,593,762 | $993,626 | $600,136 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Pat Ryan (D) | $1,582,369 | $1,265,848 | $316,522 |
| Source: OpenSecrets[10] | |||
Results
Pat Ryan won the election with 66,088 votes or 51.2% of the vote compared to Marc Molinaro's 48.8% of the vote or 63,010 votes. This defied most polls, which had Molinaro winning by a somewhat comfortable margin as well as Sabato's Crystal Ball rating of Lean R. His victory can be attributed to his large margins in Ulster County. Ryan overperformed Joe Biden's 2020 margin in this district by about 0.8%. The result was considered an upset by some, as Molinaro had led by as much as 14 percentage points in public polling of the race, and Molinaro outspent Ryan on television advertising.[11][12] Ryan's victory led some forecasters to change some of their predictions for the 2022 House election.[13] Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box winning candidate Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box turnout Шаблон:Election box registered electors Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
- Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Dutchess (largest municipality: Poughkeepsie)
- Otsego (largest municipality: Oneonta)
- Rensselaer (largest municipality: Troy)
- Sullivan (largest municipality: Monticello)
See also
- 2022 United States House of Representatives elections
- 2022 United States elections
- 117th United States Congress
- List of special elections to the United States House of Representatives
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
Шаблон:2022 United States elections
- Английская Википедия
- Special elections to the 117th United States Congress
- United States House of Representatives special elections
- United States House of Representatives elections in New York (state)
- 2022 United States House of Representatives elections
- 2022 New York (state) elections
- New York (state) special elections
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- Страницы с телепортом
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