Английская Википедия:2022 United States Senate election in Washington

The 2022 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Washington. Incumbent senator Patty Murray was first elected in 1992 with 54% of the vote to succeed retiring fellow Democrat Brock Adams; Murray most recently won re-election to a fifth term in 2016 with 59% of the vote.^[1]

Because Washington has a blanket primary system, parties did not nominate their own candidates to run in the general election. Instead, every candidate appeared on the same ballot, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two candidates in the August 2 nonpartisan blanket primary then advanced to the general election. Murray received 52.2% of the primary vote and advanced to face Republican Tiffany Smiley.^[2]

Although Washington has been a reliably blue state for over 30 years, many polls showed that Murray only had a narrow lead over Smiley, and some polls had Smiley within the margin of error. A couple of late polls had the two candidates tied; such polls caused most pundits to downgrade their forecast from "safe Democratic" to "likely Democratic", and Republicans believed that Smiley had a chance of pulling off an upset.^[3] Despite the predictions of a close race, Murray defeated Smiley and won re-election to a sixth term by a 14.5-point margin. Although this was a significantly larger margin of victory for Murray than what was expected, it was fairly consistent with Washington's partisan lean.^[4] Smiley conceded the following day. Despite her loss, she made significant gains in several counties, particularly in the Southwestern and Eastern parts of the state.^[5]

Following the election, Murray was elected president pro tempore for the 118th Congress, becoming the first woman to hold the role.^[6]

Primary election

Democratic candidates

Advanced to general

Patty Murray, incumbent U.S. Senator and Assistant Democratic Leader^[1]^[7]

Eliminated in primary

Pano Churchill, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016^[7]
Sam Cusmir^[7]
Ravin Pierre, aerospace engineer and data scientist^[7]
Mohammed Said, physician and perennial candidate^[7]
Bryan Solstin, aerospace engineer and software developer^[7]

Republican candidates

Advanced to general

Tiffany Smiley, nurse^[8]^[7]

Eliminated in primary

John Guenther, state employee^[7]
Bill Hirt, perennial candidate^[7]

Third party and independent candidates

Eliminated in primary

Thor Amundson (independent), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018 and governor in 2020^[7]
Jon Butler (No party preference)^[7]
Henry Clay Dennison (Socialist Workers), perennial candidate^[7]
Dan Phan Doan (No party preference)^[7]
Martin D. Hash (No party preference)^[7]
Chuck Jackson (independent), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012 and 2016^[7]
Leon Lawson (Trump Republican), candidate for governor in 2020^[7]
Naz Paul (independent), real estate developer^[7]
Dave Saulibio (JFK Republican), U.S. Army veteran, candidate for Washington's 5th congressional district in 2018 and Washington's 8th congressional district in 2020^[7]

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box

Results

Файл:2022 United States Senate primary election in Washington results map by county.svg

Blanket primary results by county Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Collapsible list

General election

Debates

Two debates were held, the first on October 23 at Gonzaga University.^[9] The second was town hall-style forum on October 30 in the KIRO-TV studio in Seattle.^[10]

Murray's campaign declined an invitation to a scheduled debate on October 25 at Seattle University.

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[11]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 18, 2022
Inside Elections^[12]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	July 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[13]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 19, 2022
Politico^[14]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 3, 2022
RCP^[15]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 30, 2022
Fox News^[16]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 1, 2022
DDHQ^[17]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	September 12, 2022
538^[18]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 19, 2022
The Economist^[19]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	September 7, 2022

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Patty Murray (D)	Tiffany Smiley (R)	Undecided Шаблон:Efn	Margin
Real Clear Politics	October 14 – October 31, 2022	November 3, 2022	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|49.3%	46.3%	4.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Murray +3.0
FiveThirtyEight	May 25, 2021 – November 8, 2022	November 7, 2022	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|49.6%	44.9%	6.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Murray +4.7
270ToWin	October 21 – November 1, 2022	November 7, 2022	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|49.5%	44.5%	6.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Murray +4.3
Average			Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|49.5%	45.2%	5.3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Murray +4.3

Graphical summary

Шаблон:Graph:Chart

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Patty Murray (D)	Tiffany Smiley (R)	Other	Undecided
Moore Information Group (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	November 3–5, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	47%	–	5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	October 31, 2022	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|48%	46%	–	6%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	October 25–28, 2022	1,207 (LV)	± 2.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|49%	48%	–	2%
Triton Polling & Research Шаблон:Efn-ua	October 26–27, 2022	506 (LV)	± 4.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|51%	45%	–	4%
Moore Information Group (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	October 20–22, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	46%	–	8%
KAConsulting (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	October 20–22, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|48%	42%	4%Шаблон:Efn	6%
co/efficient (R)	October 19–20, 2022	1,181 (LV)	± 3.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|48%	45%	–	7%
Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	October 19–20, 2022	782 (LV)	± 3.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|52%	42%	–	6%
SurveyUSA	October 14–19, 2022	589 (LV)	± 5.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|49%	41%	–	10%
Civiqs	October 15–18, 2022	698 (LV)	± 4.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|55%	41%	3%Шаблон:Efn	2%
Emerson College	September 29 – October 1, 2022	782 (LV)	± 3.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|51%	42%	–	7%
Public Policy Polling (D)	September 27–28, 2022	770 (V)	± 3.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|52%	40%	–	8%
OnMessage Inc. (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	September 20–27, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|46%	42%	5%Шаблон:Efn	6%
Strategies 360	September 22–25, 2022	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|50%	36%	–	14%
Strategies 360	September 22–25, 2022	370 (LV)	± 5.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|52%	40%	–	8%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	September 21–24, 2022	1,091 (LV)	± 2.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|49%	47%	–	5%
Elway Research	September 12–15, 2022	403 (LV)	± 3.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|50%	37%	–	12%
Public Policy Polling (D)	September 6–7, 2022	620 (V)	± 3.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|48%	39%	–	13%
Moore Information Group (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	September 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|48%	44%	–	8%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	August 30 – September 1, 2022	1,087 (LV)	± 2.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|49%	46%	–	5%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)	August 15–17, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|49%	43%	–	8%
Elway Research	July 7–11, 2022	400 (RV)	± 4.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|53%	33%	–	15%
SurveyUSA	July 6–10, 2022	596 (LV)	± 5.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|51%	33%	–	16%
The Tarrance Group (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	June 14–19, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|48%	43%	–	9%
Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	June 1–2, 2022	1,039 (LV)	± 3.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|51%	40%	–	8%
Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	February 17–18, 2022	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|50%	41%	–	9%
Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	November 10–11, 2021	909 (LV)	± 3.3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|50%	37%	–	13%
SurveyUSA	October 25–28, 2021	542 (RV)	± 5.2%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|49%	31%	–	20%
Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	May 25–26, 2021	992 (LV)	± 3.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|53%	37%	–	10%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Patty Murray vs. generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Patty Murray (D)	Generic Republican	Undecided
Elway Research	December 26–28, 2021	400 (RV)	± 5.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|42%	39%	19%

Patty Murray vs. generic opponent

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Patty Murray (D)	Generic Opponent	Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates (R)	August 15–17, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	44%	44%	12%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

Results by county

County	Patty Murray Democratic		Tiffany Smiley Republican		Write-In		Total
County	%	#	%	#	%	#	Total
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Adams	23.46%	969	76.25%	3,150	0.29%	12	4,131
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Asotin	35.27%	3,181	64.58%	5,824	0.14%	13	9,018
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Benton	33.68%	25,513	66.15%	50,108	0.17%	128	75,749
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Chelan	41.94%	14,373	57.87%	19,833	0.20%	67	34,273
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Clallam	51.60%	20,784	48.17%	19,401	0.23%	94	40,279
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Clark	51.09%	105,058	48.76%	100,260	0.14%	298	205,616
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Columbia	27.17%	592	72.28%	1,575	0.55%	12	2,179
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Cowlitz	38.80%	17,439	61.07%	27,446	0.13%	57	44,942
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Douglas	32.73%	5,275	67.05%	10,086	0.22%	36	16,117
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Ferry	31.04%	1,060	68.76%	2,348	0.20%	7	3,415
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Franklin	31.61%	7,022	68.31%	15,174	0.08%	18	22,214
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Garfield	23.85%	307	75.91%	977	0.23%	3	1,287
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Grant	26.83%	7,221	73.03%	19,655	0.13%	36	26,912
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Grays Harbor	46.26%	13,600	53.46%	15,718	0.28%	81	29,399
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Island	55.00%	23,680	44.77%	19,275	0.24%	102	43,057
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Jefferson	70.62%	14,970	29.18%	6,185	0.21%	44	21,199
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|King	75.05%	668,692	24.73%	220,307	0.22%	1,943	890,942
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Kitsap	57.51%	70,939	42.26%	52,134	0.23%	276	123,351
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Kittitas	39.99%	8,318	59.84%	12,446	0.16%	34	20,798
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Klickitat	41.89%	4,798	57.96%	6,639	0.16%	18	11,455
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Lewis	31.29%	11,263	68.50%	24,654	0.21%	75	35,992
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Lincoln	23.12%	1,423	76.63%	4,716	0.24%	15	6,154
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Mason	46.74%	13,777	52.97%	15,612	0.29%	86	29,475
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Okanogan	40.01%	6,644	59.78%	9,926	0.20%	34	16,605
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Pacific	48.32%	5,771	51.39%	6,137	0.29%	35	11,943
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Pend Oreille	29.94%	2,032	69.82%	4,739	0.24%	16	6,787
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Pierce	52.69%	175,164	47.02%	156,331	0.29%	959	332,454
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|San Juan	72.88%	8,254	26.97%	3,055	0.15%	17	11,326
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Skagit	51.57%	29,316	48.19%	27,394	0.24%	139	56,849
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Skamania	42.07%	2,620	57.80%	3,599	0.13%	8	6,227
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Snohomish	57.52%	184,430	42.21%	135,339	0.27%	864	320,633
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Spokane	45.46%	100,719	54.34%	120,369	0.20%	443	221,531
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Stevens	26.50%	6,073	73.31%	16,803	0.19%	43	22,919
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Thurston	58.04%	73,189	41.69%	52,570	0.28%	347	126,106
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Wahkiakum	39.26%	1,007	60.47%	1,551	0.27%	7	2,565
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Walla Walla	41.38%	10,039	58.50%	14,192	0.12%	29	24,260
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Whatcom	59.32%	65,950	40.51%	45,038	0.16%	182	111,170
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Whitman	49.81%	7,824	49.96%	7,848	0.22%	35	15,707
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Yakima	35.86%	22,541	63.93%	40,188	0.22%	136	62,865
Total	57.15%	1,741,827	42.63%	1,299,322	0.22	6,751	3,047,900

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Grays Harbor (largest city: Aberdeen)
Mason (largest city: Shelton)
Pacific (largest city: Raymond)
Whitman (largest city: Pullman)

By congressional district

Murray won 7 of 10 congressional districts, with the remaining 3 going to Smiley, including one that elected a Democrat.^[20]

District	Murray	Smiley	Representative
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Шаблон:Ushr	62%	37%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Suzan DelBene
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Шаблон:Ushr	59%	41%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Rick Larsen
rowspan=2 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Шаблон:Ushr	46%	54%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Jaime Herrera Beutler (117th Congress)
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (118th Congress)	46%	54%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Шаблон:Ushr	34%	66%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Dan Newhouse
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Шаблон:Ushr	42%	58%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Cathy McMorris Rodgers
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Шаблон:Ushr	57%	43%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Derek Kilmer
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Шаблон:Ushr	87%	13%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Pramila Jayapal
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Шаблон:Ushr	51%	49%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Kim Schrier
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Шаблон:Ushr	71%	29%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Adam Smith
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Шаблон:Ushr	57%	43%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Marilyn Strickland

Notes

Шаблон:Notelist

Partisan clients

Шаблон:Notelist-ua

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Official campaign websites

Шаблон:2022 United States elections Шаблон:Washington elections

[MurrayRunning-1] 1,0 ^1,1 Шаблон:Cite news

[2] Шаблон:Cite web

[3] Шаблон:Cite web

[4] Шаблон:Cite news

[5] Шаблон:Cite web

[6] Шаблон:Cite web

[:0-7] 7,00 ^7,01 ^7,02 ^7,03 ^7,04 ^7,05 ^7,06 ^7,07 ^7,08 ^7,09 ^7,10 ^7,11 ^7,12 ^7,13 ^7,14 ^7,15 ^7,16 ^7,17 Шаблон:Cite web

[8] Шаблон:Cite web

[9] Шаблон:Cite web

[10] Шаблон:Cite news

[Cook_PR-11] Шаблон:Cite web

[Inside_Elections-12] Шаблон:Cite web

[Sabato's_Crystal_Ball-13] Шаблон:Cite web

[Politico-14] Шаблон:Cite web

[RCP-15] Шаблон:Cite web

[Fox_News-16] Шаблон:Cite web

[DDHQ-17] Шаблон:Cite web

[FiveThirtyEight-18] Шаблон:Cite web

[The_Economist-19] Шаблон:Cite news

[20] Шаблон:Cite report

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Английская Википедия:2022 United States Senate election in Washington

Содержание

Primary election

Democratic candidates

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

Republican candidates

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

Third party and independent candidates

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Results

General election

Debates

Predictions

Endorsements

Polling

Results

Results by county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

See also

Notes

References

External links

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