Английская Википедия:2020 United States Senate election in Alabama
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:See also Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Use American English Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Alabama sidebar The 2020 United States Senate election in Alabama was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alabama, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
Incumbent senator Doug Jones, first elected in a 2017 special election, ran for a full term, facing Tommy Tuberville in the general election.
This race was one of two-Democratic held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2020 in a state President Trump won in 2016. [1] Jones was widely considered the most vulnerable senator among those seeking re-election in 2020 due to Alabama's heavy Republican partisan balance, with analysts predicting a Republican pickup; Jones's 2017 win was in part due to sexual misconduct allegations against Republican Roy Moore.[2]
As was predicted, Tuberville easily defeated Jones,[3][4][5][6] who suffered the largest margin of defeat for an incumbent U.S. Senator since Arkansas' Blanche Lincoln in 2010. Tuberville received the highest percentage of the vote for any challenger since Joseph D. Tydings in 1964. Jones became the first Democratic senator to lose reelection in Alabama, and the only Democratic senator to be defeated in 2020. He outperformed Biden in the state by about 5 points. This was the only Republican flip of the 2020 U.S. Senate elections, and as of 2024 is the last time Republicans flipped a Senate seat.
Democratic primary
The candidate filing deadline was November 8, 2019. Jones ran unopposed.[7][8]
Candidates
Nominee
- Doug Jones, incumbent U.S. senator[9]
Declined
- John Rogers, state representative[10]
- Randall Woodfin, mayor of Birmingham[11] (endorsed Doug Jones)
Endorsements
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Tommy Tuberville, former Auburn Tigers football head coach[12]
Eliminated in runoff
- Jeff Sessions, former United States attorney general, former holder of this seat, and former attorney general of Alabama[13]
Eliminated in primary
- Stanley Adair, businessman[14]
- Bradley Byrne, incumbent U.S. representative for Alabama's 1st congressional district[15]
- Arnold Mooney, state representative
- Roy Moore, former chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court, former candidate for Governor of Alabama in 2006 and 2010 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2017[16]
- Ruth Page Nelson, community activist[17]
Withdrew
- Marty Preston Hatley[18][19]
- John Merrill, Secretary of State of Alabama[20]
- John Paul Serbin[21][19]
Declined
- Robert Aderholt, incumbent U.S. representative for Alabama's 4th congressional district[22]
- Will Ainsworth, Alabama lieutenant governor[23]
- Mo Brooks, incumbent U.S. representative for Alabama's 5th congressional district and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2017[24]
- Will Dismukes, state representative[25]
- Matt Gaetz, incumbent U.S. representative for Florida's 1st congressional district[26]
- Del Marsh, president pro tempore of the Alabama Senate[27]
- Arthur Orr, state senator[11] (endorsed Bradley Byrne)
- Martha Roby, incumbent U.S. representative for Alabama's 2nd congressional district[28]
- Heather Whitestone, former Miss America[29][30]
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
First round
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Stanley Adair |
Mo Brooks |
Bradley Byrne |
Del Marsh |
John Merrill |
Arnold Mooney |
Roy Moore |
Ruth Page Nelson |
Gary Palmer |
Jeff Sessions |
Tommy Tuberville |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA IntelligenceШаблон:Efn-ua | February 18–19, 2020 | 607 (LV) | ± 4% | <1% | – | 17% | – | – | <1% | 5% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|29% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|32% | <1% | 15% |
| WPA Intelligence Шаблон:WebarchiveШаблон:Efn-ua | February 10–12, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | <1% | – | 17% | – | – | 1% | 6% | <1% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|34% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|29% | – | 15% |
| Harper Polling Шаблон:WebarchiveШаблон:Efn-ua | February 8–9, 2020 | 609 (LV) | ± 3.97% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|26% | – | – | – | 5% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 31% | 24% | – | 14% |
| Mason-Dixon | February 4–6, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | – | 17% | – | – | – | 5% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 31% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|29% | 2% | 16% |
| OnMessageШаблон:Efn-ua | January 13–15, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 2.5% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|22% | – | – | – | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% | 21% | – | – |
| OnMessageШаблон:Efn-ua | December 3–5, 2019 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | – | – | 14% | – | – | 1% | 7% | 1% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|21% | – | 12% |
| Cherry CommunicationsШаблон:Efn-ua | December 1–3, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1% | – | 12% | – | – | 1% | 8% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 35% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|31% | – | – |
| Merrill withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Filing deadline, by which Palmer had not declared his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
| Nelson and Sessions announce their candidacies | ||||||||||||||||
| WPA IntelligenceШаблон:Efn-ua | October 29–31, 2019 | 511 (V) | ± 4.4% | – | – | 11% | – | 6% | 2% | 11% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 36% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 23% | – | – |
| Cygnal | October 10–12, 2019 | 536 (LV) | – | 1% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 18% | – | 9% | 2% | 11% | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 32% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided| 28% |
| Tommy for SenateШаблон:Efn-ua | Released on October 5, 2019 |
– (LV)Шаблон:Efn | – | 1% | – | 13% | – | 9% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|15% | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|36% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|26% |
| Moore InformationШаблон:Efn-ua | August 11–13, 2019 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|17% | – | 13% | 1% | 15% | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 33% | 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided| 17% |
| Merrill announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
| Cygnal | June 22–23, 2019 | 612 (LV) | 4.0% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 21% | – | 12% | 2% | 13% | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 29% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided| 22% |
| – | – | 13% | – | 8% | – | 9% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|29% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 21% | – | – | ||||
| Moore announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
| Moore InformationШаблон:Efn-ua | June 10–11, 2019 | 650 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | – | 16% | – | 7% | 2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 18% | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 23% | 6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided| 28% |
| Brooks announces he will not run | ||||||||||||||||
| Marsh announces he will not run | ||||||||||||||||
| Mason-Dixon | April 9–11, 2019 | 400 (RV) | ± 5.0% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|18% | 13% | 4% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|27% | – | 11% | – | – | 2%Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|25% |
| Victory PhonesШаблон:Efn-ua | Released in February 2019 |
400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 30% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 17% | 7% | – | – | – | – | 12% | – | – | 6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided| 27% |
Primary results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Runoff
The runoff for the Republican Senate nomination was planned for March 31, 2020,[31] but it was delayed until July 14 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.[32]
Polling
- with Bradley Byrne and Gary Palmer
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Bradley Byrne |
Gary Palmer |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | February 10–12, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 27% | 27% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided| 46% |
- with Bradley Byrne and Jeff Sessions
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Bradley Byrne |
Jeff Sessions |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL Daily News/Mason-Dixon | February 4–6, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 35% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 48% | 17% |
- with Mo Brooks and Bradley Byrne
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Mo Brooks |
Bradley Byrne |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence (R) Шаблон:WebarchiveШаблон:Efn-ua | March 10–12, 2019 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 43% | 32% | 25% |
- with Mo Brooks and Roy Moore
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Mo Brooks |
Roy Moore |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence (R) Шаблон:WebarchiveШаблон:Efn-uaШаблон:Efn-ua | March 10–12, 2019 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 52% | 32% | 16% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Independents
Candidates
Withdrawn
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[37] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[38] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[39] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[40] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico[41] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[42] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[43] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[44] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[45] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Doug Jones (D) |
Tommy Tuberville (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable Шаблон:Webarchive | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 294 (LV) | ± 8.5% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|58% | – | – |
| Data for Progress | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 1,045 (LV) | ± 3% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|56% | 0%Шаблон:Efn | – |
| Morning Consult | October 22–31, 2020 | 850 (LV) | ± 3% | 39% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51% | – | – |
| Auburn University At Montgomery | October 23–28, 2020 | 853 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|54% | 3% | – |
| Swayable | October 23–26, 2020 | 232 (LV) | ± 8.7% | 46% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|54% | – | – |
| Cygnal | October 21–23, 2020 | 645 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|55% | – | 4% |
| Moore Information (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | October 11–14, 2020 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|55% | – | – |
| FM3 Research (D) Шаблон:WebarchiveШаблон:Efn-ua | October 11–14, 2020 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% | 47% | – | 5%Шаблон:Efn |
| Auburn University at Montgomery Шаблон:Webarchive | September 30 – October 3, 2020 | 1,072 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|54% | 4% | – |
| Morning Consult | September 11–20, 2020 | 658 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 34% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% | – | – |
| Morning Consult | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 609 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% | 4%Шаблон:Efn | 9% |
| Auburn University at Montgomery Шаблон:Webarchive | July 2–9, 2020 | 567 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 36% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|44% | 7%Шаблон:Efn | 14% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | June 29 – July 2, 2020 | 509 (LV)Шаблон:Efn | ± 3.8% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | – | – |
| ALG Research (D) | June 18–22, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% | 1% | 8% |
| Cygnal (R) | June 13–16, 2020 | 530 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 36% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 13% |
| FM3 Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | May 14–18, 2020 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% | – | 9% |
| Mason-Dixon | February 4–6, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 50% | – | 8% |
| JMC Analytics | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 47% | – | 13% |
- With Jeff Sessions
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Doug Jones (D) |
Jeff Sessions (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn University at Montgomery Шаблон:Webarchive | July 2–9, 2020 | 567 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% | 7%Шаблон:Efn | 1% |
| ALG Research (D) | June 18–22, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | 3% | 9% |
| Cygnal (R) | June 13–16, 2020 | 530 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 35% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 18% |
| Mason-Dixon | February 4–6, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 54% | – | 5% |
| JMC Analytics | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 46% | – | 13% |
- With Bradley Byrne
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Doug Jones (D) |
Bradley Byrne (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL Daily News/Mason-Dixon | February 4–6, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 51% | 7% |
| JMC Analytics | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 44% | 16% |
- With Arnold Mooney
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Doug Jones (D) |
Arnold Mooney (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 40% | 34% | 25% |
- With Roy Moore
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Doug Jones (D) |
Roy Moore (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 47% | 33% | 20% |
- With Generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Doug Jones (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon | Apr 9–11, 2019 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 10% |
- With Generic Opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Doug Jones (D) |
Generic Opponent |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 34% | Шаблон:Party shading/Other|48%Шаблон:Efn-ua | 18% |
- with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal | October 21–23, 2020 | 645 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|55% | 6% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box gain with party link no swing
Шаблон:Election box end Шаблон:Collapse top
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Barbour (largest city: Eufaula)
- Butler (largest city: Greenville)
- Chambers (largest city: Valley)
- Choctaw (largest town: Butler)
- Clarke (largest city: Jackson)
- Conecuh (largest city: Evergreen)
- Lee (largest city: Auburn)
- Madison (largest city: Huntsville)
- Mobile (largest city: Mobile)
- Pickens (largest city: Aliceville)
- Talladega (largest city: Talladega)
- Tuscaloosa (largest city: Tuscaloosa)
Analysis
The result was a landslide victory for Tuberville. Tuberville's 20-point margin of victory is largely attributed to the presence of Donald Trump on the ballot, and Jones' votes against Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett, as well as his vote to convict Donald Trump in his first impeachment trial. Jones was widely considered the most vulnerable senator in 2020, and his victory in 2017 was largely attributed to allegations of child molestation against his opponent. While Jones was able to receive more raw votes than he did in 2017, Tuberville received nearly double the number of votes Roy Moore did in 2017, largely due to the high Republican turnout. Jones did perform well in Jefferson County and Montgomery County, but still vastly underperformed his margins in 2017, while Tuberville easily won the rural areas, and successfully flipped many counties that went to Jones by significant margins.
In the 2017 election, Jones won several traditionally Republican counties while also driving up margins and turnout in traditionally Democratic counties: he added onto massive margins in Birmingham and Montgomery with narrow wins in the state's other, previously more conservative metropolitan areas, such as Huntsville, Mobile, and Tuscaloosa, alongside several other small counties encircling the Black Belt.[47] Jones' win, though attributable to a spike in Democratic turnout and a decline in Republican turnout, was primarily reliant on allegations of child sexual abuse and pedophilia against Moore, resulting in several prominent Republicans rescinding their endorsements.[48][49][50] With Tuberville lacking such controversies, the state swung hard into the Republican column in 2020,[51] and he flipped 12 counties Jones won in 2017. Jones only won the 13 counties won by Joe Biden in the concurrent 2020 presidential election, and his victories in Jefferson County (Birmingham) and Montgomery County (Montgomery) were insufficient to overcome Tuberville's performance in the rest of the state.
Notes
- Partisan clients and other notes
- Voter samples
References
Further reading
External links
- Шаблон:Cite web
- Шаблон:Cite web
- Шаблон:Cite web (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Шаблон:Ballotpedia
- Official campaign websites
Шаблон:2020 United States elections
- ↑ The other was in Michigan, where Senator Gary Peters was re-elected over Republican John James
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
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