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{{Short description|Current rise in Earth's average temperature and its effects}}
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{{Redirect|Global warming||Climate change (disambiguation)|and|Global warming (disambiguation)}}
{{About|contemporary climate change|historical climate trends|Climate variability and change}}
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[[File:Change in Average Temperature With Fahrenheit.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|alt=The global map shows sea temperature rises of 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius; land temperature rises of 1 to 2 degree Celsius; and Arctic temperature rises of up to 4 degrees Celsius.|Changes in [[surface air temperature]] over the past 50 years.<ref>{{Cite web |title=GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4) |url=https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/index_v4.html |access-date=12 January 2024 |website=NASA}}</ref> The [[Arctic]] has warmed the most, and temperatures on land have generally increased more than [[Sea surface temperature|sea surface temperatures]].]]
[[File:Global Temperature And Forces With Fahrenheit.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Earth's average surface air temperature has increased almost 1.5{{nbsp}}°C (about{{nbsp}}2.5 °F) since the [[Industrial Revolution]]. Natural forces cause some variability, but the 20-year average shows the progressive influence of human activity.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1|2021|loc=SPM-7}}</ref>]]
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In common usage, '''climate change''' describes '''global warming'''—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's [[climate system]]. [[Climate variability and change|Climate change in a broader sense]] also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate. The [[Instrumental temperature record|current rise in global average temperature]] is more rapid than previous changes, and is [[Scientific consensus on climate change|primarily caused by humans]] burning [[fossil fuel]]s.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=54|ps=: Since 1970 the global average temperature has been rising at a rate of 1.7°C per century, compared to a long-term decline over the past 7,000 years at a baseline rate of 0.01°C per century (NOAA, 2016; Marcott et al., 2013). These global-level rates of human-driven change far exceed the rates of change driven by geophysical or biosphere forces that have altered the Earth System trajectory in the past (e.g., Summerhayes, 2015; Foster et al., 2017); even abrupt geophysical events do not approach current rates of human-driven change.}}</ref><ref name=Lynas_2021>{{cite journal |last1=Lynas |first1=Mark |last2=Houlton |first2=Benjamin Z. |last3=Perry |first3=Simon |title=Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature |journal=[[Environmental Research Letters]] |date=19 October 2021 |volume=16 |issue=11 |page=114005 |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966 |bibcode=2021ERL....16k4005L |s2cid=239032360 |doi-access=free }}</ref> [[Greenhouse gas emissions|Fossil fuel use]], [[Deforestation and climate change|deforestation]], and some [[Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture|agricultural]] and [[Environmental impact of concrete|industrial]] practices add to [[greenhouse gas]]es, notably [[carbon dioxide]] and [[Methane emissions|methane]].<ref name="auto2">{{harvnb|Our World in Data, 18 September|2020}}</ref> Greenhouse gases [[greenhouse effect|absorb some of the heat]] that the Earth [[Thermal radiation|radiates]] after it warms from [[sunlight]]. Larger amounts of these gases [[Earth's energy budget#Earth's energy imbalance (EEI)|trap more heat]] in Earth's lower atmosphere, causing global warming.

Climate change has an increasing [[Effects of climate change|impact on the environment]]. [[Desertification|Deserts are expanding]], while [[heat wave]]s and [[wildfire]]s are becoming more common.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019|p=7|ps=: Since the pre-industrial period, the land surface air temperature has risen nearly twice as much as the global average temperature (high confidence). Climate change... contributed to desertification and land degradation in many regions (high confidence).}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019|p=45|ps=: Climate change is playing an increasing role in determining wildfire regimes alongside human activity (medium confidence), with future climate variability expected to enhance the risk and severity of wildfires in many biomes such as tropical rainforests (high confidence).}}</ref> [[polar amplification|Amplified warming in the Arctic]] has contributed to thawing [[permafrost]], [[retreat of glaciers since 1850|retreat of glaciers]] and [[Arctic sea ice decline|sea ice decline]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019|p=16|ps=: Over the last decades, global warming has led to widespread shrinking of the cryosphere, with mass loss from ice sheets and glaciers (very high confidence), reductions in snow cover (high confidence) and Arctic sea ice extent and thickness (very high confidence), and increased permafrost temperature (very high confidence).}}</ref> Higher temperatures are also causing [[Tropical cyclones and climate change|more intense storms]], droughts, and other [[Extreme weather|weather extremes]].<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch11|2021|p=1517}}</ref> Rapid environmental change in [[Montane ecosystems|mountains]], [[coral reef]]s, and [[Climate change in the Arctic|the Arctic]] is forcing many species to relocate or [[Extinction risk from climate change|become extinct]].<ref>{{cite web|author=EPA|date=19 January 2017|title=Climate Impacts on Ecosystems|url=https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-ecosystems_.html#Extinction|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180127185656/https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-ecosystems_.html#Extinction|archive-date=27 January 2018|access-date=5 February 2019|quote=Mountain and arctic ecosystems and species are particularly sensitive to climate change... As ocean temperatures warm and the acidity of the ocean increases, bleaching and coral die-offs are likely to become more frequent.}}</ref> Even if efforts to minimise future warming are successful, some effects will continue for centuries. These include [[Ocean temperature#Increasing temperature due to climate change|ocean heating]], [[ocean acidification]] and [[sea level rise]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=64|ps=: Sustained net zero anthropogenic emissions of {{CO2}} and declining net anthropogenic non-{{CO2}} radiative forcing over a multi-decade period would halt anthropogenic global warming over that period, although it would not halt sea level rise or many other aspects of climate system adjustment.}}</ref>

Climate change [[Effects of climate change on human health|threatens people]] with increased [[flooding]], extreme heat, increased [[Effects of climate change on agriculture|food]] and [[Water scarcity#Climate change|water]] scarcity, more disease, and [[Economic impacts of climate change|economic loss]]. [[Environmental migrant|Human migration]] and conflict can also be a result.<ref name="auto3">{{harvnb|Cattaneo|Beine|Fröhlich|Kniveton|2019}}; {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022|pp=15, 53}}</ref> The [[World Health Organization]] (WHO) calls climate change the greatest threat to [[global health]] in the 21st century.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|pp=13–16}}; {{harvnb|WHO, Nov|2015}}: "Climate change is the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century. Health professionals have a duty of care to current and future generations. You are on the front line in protecting people from climate impacts – from more heat-waves and other extreme weather events; from outbreaks of infectious diseases such as malaria, dengue and cholera; from the effects of malnutrition; as well as treating people who are affected by cancer, respiratory, cardiovascular and other non-communicable diseases caused by environmental pollution."</ref> Societies and ecosystems will experience more severe risks without [[Climate change mitigation|action to limit warming]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022|p=19}}</ref> [[Climate change adaptation|Adapting to climate change]] through efforts like [[flood control]] measures or [[Xerophyte|drought-resistant crops]] partially reduces climate change risks, although some limits to adaptation have already been reached.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022|pp=21–26; 2504}}; {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 SYR SPM|2023|pp=8–9}}: "Effectiveness15 of adaptation in reducing climate risks16 is documented for specific contexts, sectors and regions (high confidence)...Soft limits to adaptation are currently being experienced by small-scale farmers and households along some low-lying coastal areas (medium confidence) resulting from financial, governance, institutional and policy constraints (high confidence). Some tropical, coastal, polar and mountain ecosystems have reached hard adaptation limits (high confidence). Adaptation does not prevent all losses and damages, even with effective adaptation and before reaching soft and hard limits (high confidence)."</ref> Poorer communities are responsible for [[Climate justice|a small share of global emissions]], yet have the least ability to adapt and are most [[Climate change vulnerability|vulnerable to climate change]].<ref>{{cite web |last1=Tietjen |first1=Bethany |title=Loss and damage: Who is responsible when climate change harms the world's poorest countries? |url=https://theconversation.com/loss-and-damage-who-is-responsible-when-climate-change-harms-the-worlds-poorest-countries-192070 |website=[[The Conversation (website)|The Conversation]] |access-date=30 August 2023 |date=2 November 2022}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/ |publisher=[[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|IPCC]] |access-date=30 August 2023 |date=27 February 2022}}</ref>
<noinclude>{{multiple image
| perrow            = 1 / 2
| total_width       = 310
| image1            = Bobcat Fire, Los Angeles, San Gabriel Mountains.jpg
| alt1              = Bobcat Fire in Monrovia, CA, September 10, 2020
| image2            = Bleached colony of Acropora coral.jpg
| alt2              = Bleached colony of Acropora coral
| image4            = California Drought Dry Lakebed 2009.jpg
| alt4              = A dry lakebed in California, which is experiencing its worst megadrought in 1,200 years.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/water-cutbacks-california-6-million-people-drought/ |title=California is rationing water amid its worst drought in 1,200 years |first=Irina |last=Ivanova |publisher=[[CBS News]] |date=June 2, 2022}}</ref>
| footer            = Examples of some [[effects of climate change]]: [[Wildfire]] intensified by heat and drought, [[Coral bleaching|bleaching of corals]] occurring more often due to [[marine heatwave]]s, and worsening [[drought]]s compromising water supplies.
}}

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Many climate change impacts have been felt in recent years, with 2023 the warmest on record at +{{convert|1.48|C-change}}.<ref>{{cite web |title=2023 confirmed as world's hottest year on record |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67861954 |publisher=[[BBC]] |first1=Mark |last1=Poyntin |first2=Erwan |last2=Rivault |access-date=13 January 2024 |date=10 January 2024}}</ref> Additional warming will increase these impacts and can trigger [[Tipping points in the climate system|tipping points]], such as melting all of the [[Greenland ice sheet]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=71}}</ref> Under the 2015 [[Paris Agreement]], nations collectively agreed to keep warming "well under 2&nbsp;°C". However, with pledges made under the Agreement, global warming would still reach about {{convert|2.7|C-change}} by the end of the century.<ref name="UNEP2021">{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2021|p=36|ps=: "A continuation of the effort implied by the latest unconditional NDCs and announced pledges is at present estimated to result in warming of about 2.7&nbsp;°C (range: 2.2–3.2&nbsp;°C) with a 66 per cent chance."}}</ref> Limiting warming to 1.5&nbsp;°C will require halving emissions by 2030 and achieving [[Carbon neutrality|net-zero]] emissions by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|pp=95–96|ps=: In model pathways with no or limited overshoot of 1.5&nbsp;°C, global net anthropogenic {{CO2}} emissions decline by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 (40–60% interquartile range), reaching net zero around 2050 (2045–2055 interquartile range)}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018|loc=SPM C.3|p=17|ps=:All pathways that limit global warming to 1.5&nbsp;°C with limited or no overshoot project the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) on the order of 100–1000 GtCO2 over the 21st century. CDR would be used to compensate for residual emissions and, in most cases, achieve net negative emissions to return global warming to 1.5&nbsp;°C following a peak (high confidence). CDR deployment of several hundreds of GtCO2 is subject to multiple feasibility and sustainability constraints (high confidence).}}; {{harvnb|Rogelj|Meinshausen|Schaeffer|Knutti|Riahi|2015}}; {{harvnb|Hilaire et al.|2019}}</ref>

Strategies to [[Fossil fuel phase-out|phase out fossil fuels]] involve [[conserving energy]], generating [[electricity]] cleanly, and [[electrification|using electricity]] to power transportation, heat buildings, and operate industrial facilities. The electricity supply can be made cleaner and more plentiful by vastly increasing deployment of [[wind power|wind]], and [[solar power|solar]] power, alongside other forms of [[renewable energy]] and [[nuclear power]].<ref>{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|loc=Table ES.3|p=xxiii}}; {{harvnb|Teske, ed.|2019|p=xxvii, Fig.5}}.</ref><ref>{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|loc=Table ES.3 & p. 49}}; {{harvnb|NREL|2017|pp=vi, 12}}</ref> Carbon can also be [[Carbon sequestration|removed from the atmosphere]], for instance by [[Forest protection|increasing forest cover]] and farming with methods that [[Carbon farming|capture carbon in soil]].<ref name="IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers 2019 18">{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=18}}</ref>

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== Terminology ==<!--An excerpt of this section has been added to [[History of climate change science]] in September 2022.-->

Before the 1980s, when it was unclear whether the warming effect of [[Greenhouse effect|increased greenhouse gases]] was stronger than the [[Particulates#Climate effects|cooling effect of airborne particulates]] in [[air pollution]], scientists used the term ''inadvertent climate modification'' to refer to human impacts on the climate.<ref name="Conway 2008">{{harvnb|NASA, 5 December|2008}}.</ref>

In the 1980s, the terms ''global warming'' and ''climate change'' became more common. Though the two terms are sometimes used interchangeably,<ref>{{harvnb|NASA, 7 July|2020}}; {{Harvnb|Shaftel|2016}}: "{{thinsp}}'Climate change' and 'global warming' are often used interchangeably but have distinct meanings.&nbsp;... Global warming refers to the upward temperature trend across the entire Earth since the early 20th century&nbsp;... Climate change refers to a broad range of global phenomena&nbsp;...[which] include the increased temperature trends described by global warming."; {{harvnb|Associated Press, 22 September|2015}}: "The terms global warming and climate change can be used interchangeably. Climate change is more accurate scientifically to describe the various effects of greenhouse gases on the world because it includes extreme weather, storms and changes in rainfall patterns, ocean acidification and sea level.".</ref> scientifically, ''global warming'' refers only to increased surface warming, while ''climate change'' describes the totality of changes to Earth's [[climate system]].<ref name="Conway 2008"/> ''Global warming''—used as early as 1975<ref name=Science_Broeker_19750808>{{cite journal |last1=Broeker |first1=Wallace S. |title=Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming? |journal=[[Science (journal)|Science]] |date=8 August 1975 |volume=189 |issue=4201 |pages=460–463 |doi=10.1126/science.189.4201.460 |jstor=1740491 |pmid=17781884 |bibcode=1975Sci...189..460B |s2cid=16702835 |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/1740491}}</ref>—became the more popular term after NASA climate scientist [[James Hansen]] used it in his 1988 testimony in the [[U.S. Senate]].<ref name="history.aip.org2">{{harvnb|Weart "The Public and Climate Change: The Summer of 1988"}}, [http://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm#L_0575 "News reporters gave only a little attention&nbsp;..."].</ref> Since the 2000s, ''climate change'' has increased usage.<ref>{{harvnb|Joo|Kim|Do|Lineman|2015}}.</ref> ''Climate change'' can also refer more broadly to both [[climate variability and change|human-caused changes or natural changes]] throughout Earth's history.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014|p=120}}: "Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use."</ref>

Various scientists, politicians and media now use the terms ''[[climate crisis]]'' or ''[[Climate emergency declaration|climate emergency]]'' to talk about climate change, and ''global heating'' instead of ''global warming''.<ref>{{harvnb|Hodder|Martin|2009}}; {{harvnb|BBC Science Focus Magazine, 3 February|2020}}</ref>

== Global temperature rise ==
[[File:Common Era Temperature.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|[[Global surface temperature]] reconstruction over the last 2000 years using proxy data from tree rings, corals, and ice cores in blue.<ref>{{harvnb|Neukom|Barboza|Erb|Shi|2019b}}.</ref> Directly observed data is in red.<ref name="nasa temperatures">{{cite web |title=Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change |url=https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/ |access-date=23 February 2020 |publisher=[[NASA]]}}</ref>]]
=== Temperature records prior to global warming ===
{{Main|Climate variability and change|Temperature record of the last 2,000 years|Paleoclimatology}}
Prior to human evolution the record includes hotter temperatures and occasional [[Abrupt climate change|abrupt changes]], such as the [[Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum]] 55.5 million years ago.<ref name="AR5 WG1 Ch 5">{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch5|2013|pp=389, 399–400|ps=: "The [[Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum|PETM]] [around 55.5–55.3&nbsp;million years ago] was marked by&nbsp;... global warming of 4&nbsp;°C to 7&nbsp;°C&nbsp;... [[Deglaciation|Deglacial]] global warming occurred in two main steps from 17.5 to 14.5 ka [thousand years ago] and 13.0 to 10.0 ka."}}</ref>

Over the last few million years [[Human evolution|Human beings evolved]] in a [[Paleoclimatology|climate that cycled]] through [[ice ages]], with global average temperature ranging between current levels and 5–6&nbsp;°C colder than today.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Michon |first1=Scott |title=What's the hottest the Earth's ever been?|url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/whats-hottest-earths-ever-been |publisher=SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION |access-date=6 August 2023}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Michon |first1=Scott |title=What's the coldest the Earth's ever been?|url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/whats-coldest-earths-ever-been |publisher=SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION |access-date=6 August 2023}}</ref> 
Historical patterns of warming and cooling, like the [[Medieval Warm Period]] and the [[Little Ice Age]], did not occur at the same time across different regions. Temperatures may have reached as high as those of the late 20th century in a limited set of regions.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch5|2013|p=386}}; {{harvnb|Neukom|Steiger|Gómez-Navarro|Wang|2019a}}</ref> Climate information for that period comes from [[Proxy (climate)|climate proxies]], such as trees and [[ice core]]s.<ref name="SR15 Ch1 p57">{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=57|ps=: This report adopts the 51-year reference period, 1850–1900 inclusive, assessed as an approximation of pre-industrial levels in AR5&nbsp;... Temperatures rose by 0.0&nbsp;°C–0.2&nbsp;°C from 1720–1800 to 1850–1900}}; {{harvnb|Hawkins|Ortega|Suckling|Schurer|2017|p=1844}}</ref>

=== Warming since the Industrial Revolution ===
{{Main|Instrumental temperature record}} 
[[File:1951- Warm and cold record temperatures - bar chart.svg |thumb|upright=1.35| In recent decades, new high temperature records have substantially outpaced new low temperature records on a growing portion of Earth's surface.<ref name=NOAA_July>{{cite web |title=Mean Monthly Temperature Records Across the Globe / Timeseries of Global Land and Ocean Areas at Record Levels for September from 1951-2023 |url=https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202309/supplemental/page-3 |website=NCEI.NOAA.gov |publisher=National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231014030010/https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202309/supplemental/page-3 |archive-date=14 October 2023 |date=September 2023 |url-status=live}} (change "202309" in URL to see years other than 2023, and months other than 09=September)</ref>]]
[[File:1955- Ocean heat content - NOAA.svg |thumb |upright=1.35 |There has been an increase in [[ocean heat content]] during recent decades as the oceans absorb over 90% of the [[Earth's energy budget|heat from global warming]].<ref name=NOAA_NASA_OHC_1957_>''Top 700 meters:'' {{cite web |last1=Lindsey |first1=Rebecca |last2=Dahlman |first2=Luann |title=Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content |url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content |website=climate.gov |publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) |archive-url=https://archive.today/20231029171303/https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content |archive-date=29 October 2023 |date=6 September 2023 |url-status=live }} ● ''Top 2000 meters:'' {{cite web |title=Ocean Warming / Latest Measurement: December 2022 / 345 (± 2) zettajoules since 1955 |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/ |website=NASA.gov |publisher=National Aeronautics and Space Administration |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231020033606/https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/ |archive-date=20 October 2023 |url-status=live}}</ref>]]
Around 1850 thermometer records began to provide global coverage.<ref name="AR5 WG1 SPM p4-5">{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2013|pp=4–5|ps=: "Global-scale observations from the instrumental era began in the mid-19th century for temperature and other variables&nbsp;... the period 1880 to 2012&nbsp;... multiple independently produced datasets exist."}}</ref> 
Between the 18th century and 1970 there was little net warming, as the warming impact of greenhouse gas emissions was offset by cooling from [[sulfur dioxide]] emissions. Sulfur dioxide causes [[acid rain]], but it also produces [[sulfate]] aerosols in the atmosphere, which reflect sunlight and cause so-called [[global dimming]]. After 1970, the increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases and controls on sulfur pollution led to a marked increase in temperature.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/12/26/global-warming-accelerating-climate-change/ |title=Is climate change speeding up? Here's what the science says. |last1=Mooney |first1=Chris | last2=Osaka |first2=Shannon |date=26 December 2023 |newspaper=The Washington Post |access-date=18 January 2024}}</ref><ref name="NASA2007" /><ref name="Quaas2022" /> 

Multiple independent datasets all show worldwide increases in surface temperature,<ref>{{harvnb|EPA|2016|ps=: The U.S. Global Change Research Program, the National Academy of Sciences, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have each independently concluded that warming of the climate system in recent decades is "unequivocal". This conclusion is not drawn from any one source of data but is based on multiple lines of evidence, including three worldwide temperature datasets showing nearly identical warming trends as well as numerous other independent indicators of global warming (e.g. rising sea levels, shrinking Arctic sea ice).}}</ref> at a rate of around 0.2&nbsp;°C per decade.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=81}}.</ref> The 2013-2022 decade warmed to an average 1.15&nbsp;°C [1.00–1.25&nbsp;°C] compared to the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900).<ref>{{harvnb|Earth System Science Data|2023|p=2306}}</ref> Not every single year was warmer than the last: internal [[climate variability]] processes can make any year 0.2&nbsp;°C warmer or colder than the average.<ref name="Samset2020">{{cite journal |last1=Samset |first1=B. H. |last2=Fuglestvedt |first2=J. S. |last3=Lund |first3=M. T. |title=Delayed emergence of a global temperature response after emission mitigation |journal=Nature Communications |date=7 July 2020 |volume=11 |page=3261 |doi=10.1038/s41467-020-17001-1 |pmid=32636367 |bibcode=2020NatCo..11.3261S |quote=At the time of writing, that translated into 2035–2045, where the delay was mostly due to the impacts of the around 0.2 °C of natural, interannual variability of global mean surface air temperature |hdl=11250/2771093 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> From 1998 to 2013, negative phases of two such processes, [[Pacific decadal oscillation|Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)]]<ref name="SeipGrønWang2023PacificDecadalOscillation">{{Cite journal |last1=Seip |first1=Knut L. |last2=Grøn |first2=ø. |last3=Wang |first3=H. |date=31 August 2023 |title=Global lead-lag changes between climate variability series coincide with major phase shifts in the Pacific decadal oscillation |journal=[[Theoretical and Applied Climatology]] |volume=154 |issue=3–4 |language=en |doi=10.1007/s00704-023-04617-8 |issn=0177-798X |pages=1137–1149 |bibcode=2023ThApC.154.1137S |s2cid=261438532 |doi-access=free }}</ref> and [[Atlantic_multidecadal_oscillation|Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)]].<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Yao |first1=Shuai-Lei |last2=Huang |first2=Gang |last3=Wu |first3=Ren-Guang |last4=Qu |first4=Xia |date=January 2016 |title=The global warming hiatus—a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation |url=http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-014-1358-x |journal=[[Theoretical and Applied Climatology]] |language=en |volume=123 |issue=1–2 |pages=349–360 |doi=10.1007/s00704-014-1358-x |bibcode=2016ThApC.123..349Y |s2cid=123602825 |issn=0177-798X |access-date=20 September 2023}}</ref> caused a so-called "[[global warming hiatus]]".<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Xie |first1=Shang-Ping |last2=Kosaka |first2=Yu |date=June 2017 |title=What Caused the Global Surface Warming Hiatus of 1998–2013? |url=http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40641-017-0063-0 |journal=Current Climate Change Reports |language=en |volume=3 |issue=2 |pages=128–140 |doi=10.1007/s40641-017-0063-0 |bibcode=2017CCCR....3..128X |s2cid=133522627 |issn=2198-6061 |access-date=20 September 2023}}</ref> After the hiatus, the opposite occurred, with years like 2023 exhibiting temperatures well above even the recent average.<ref name="Copernicus2023">{{Cite web |date=21 November 2023 |title=Global temperature exceeds 2°C above pre-industrial average on 17 November |url=https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-temperature-exceeds-2degc-above-pre-industrial-average-17-november |website=[[Copernicus Programme|Copernicus]] |access-date=31 January 2024 |quote=While exceeding the 2°C threshold for a number of days does not mean that we have breached the Paris Agreement targets, the more often that we exceed this threshold, the more serious the cumulative effects of these breaches will become.}}</ref> This is why the temperature change is defined in terms of a 20-year average, which minimises the noise of hot and cold years and decadal climate patterns, and detects the long-term signal.<ref name="IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM">IPCC, 2021: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf Summary for Policymakers]. In: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, New York, US, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.</ref>{{rp|5}}<ref>{{Cite web |last=McGrath |first=Matt |date=17 May 2023 |title=Global warming set to break key 1.5C limit for first time |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65602293 |website=[[BBC News]] |access-date=31 January 2024 |quote=The researchers stress that temperatures would have to stay at or above 1.5C for 20 years to be able to say the Paris agreement threshold had been passed. }}</ref>

A wide range of other observations reinforce the evidence of warming.<ref>{{harvnb|Kennedy|Thorne|Peterson|Ruedy|2010|p=S26}}. Figure 2.5.</ref>{{sfn|Loeb et al.|2021}} The upper atmosphere is cooling, because [[greenhouse gas]]es are trapping heat near the Earth's surface, and so less heat is radiating into space.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/GlobalWarming |title=Global Warming |date=3 June 2010 |publisher=[[NASA JPL]] |access-date=11 September 2020 |quote=Satellite measurements show warming in the troposphere but cooling in the stratosphere. This vertical pattern is consistent with global warming due to increasing greenhouse gases but inconsistent with warming from natural causes.}}</ref> Warming reduces average snow cover and [[retreat of glaciers since 1850|forces the retreat of glaciers]]. At the same time, warming also causes [[Effects of climate change on the water cycle|greater evaporation from the oceans]], leading to more [[specific humidity|atmospheric humidity]], more and heavier [[precipitation]].<ref>{{harvnb|Kennedy|Thorne|Peterson|Ruedy|2010|pp=S26, S59–S60}}; {{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 1|2017|p=35}}.</ref> Plants are [[flowering]] earlier in spring, and thousands of animal species have been permanently moving to cooler areas.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022|pp=257-260}}</ref> 

==== Differences by region ====
Different regions of the world [[Climate variability and change#Variability between regions|warm at different rates]]. The pattern is independent of where greenhouse gases are emitted, because the gases persist long enough to diffuse across the planet. Since the pre-industrial period, the average surface temperature over land regions has increased almost twice as fast as the global-average surface temperature.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=7}}</ref> This is because oceans lose more heat by [[evaporation]] and [[Ocean_heat_content|oceans can store a lot of heat]].<ref>{{Harvnb|Sutton|Dong|Gregory|2007}}.</ref> The thermal energy in the global climate system has grown with only brief pauses since at least 1970, and over 90% of this extra energy has been [[ocean heat content|stored in the ocean]].<ref name="ocean heat absorption">{{cite web|title=Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content |newspaper=Noaa Climate.gov |publisher=[[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|NOAA]] |year=2018 |url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190212110601/https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content|archive-date=12 February 2019 |url-status=live|access-date=20 February 2019}}</ref><ref name="Harvipccar5">{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch3|2013|p=257}}: "[[Sea level rise#Ocean heating|Ocean warming]] dominates the global energy change inventory. Warming of the ocean accounts for about 93% of the increase in the Earth's energy inventory between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence), with warming of the upper (0 to 700 m) ocean accounting for about 64% of the total.</ref> The rest has heated the [[atmosphere]], melted ice, and warmed the continents.<ref name=EarthSysSciData_20200907>{{cite journal |last1=von Schuckman |first1=K. |last2=Cheng |first2=L. |last3=Palmer |first3=M. D. |last4=Hansen |first4=J. |last5=Tassone |first5=C. |last6=Aich |first6=V. |last7=Adusumilli |first7=S. |last8=Beltrami |first8=H. |last9=Boyer |first9=T. |last10=Cuesta-Valero |first10=F. J. |display-authors=4 |title=Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go? |journal=Earth System Science Data |date=7 September 2020 |doi=10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020 |doi-access=free |url=https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/2013/2020/ |volume=12 |issue=3 |pages=2013–2041|bibcode=2020ESSD...12.2013V |hdl=20.500.11850/443809 |hdl-access=free }}</ref>

The [[Northern Hemisphere]] and the [[North Pole]] have warmed much faster than the [[South Pole]] and [[Southern Hemisphere]]. The Northern Hemisphere not only has much more land, but also more seasonal snow cover and [[sea ice]]. As these surfaces flip from reflecting a lot of light to being dark after the ice has melted, they start [[albedo|absorbing more heat]].<ref>{{harvnb|NOAA, 10 July|2011}}.</ref> Local black carbon deposits on snow and ice also contribute to Arctic warming.<ref>{{harvnb|United States Environmental Protection Agency|2016|p=5|ps=: "Black carbon that is deposited on snow and ice darkens those surfaces and decreases their reflectivity (albedo). This is known as the snow/ice albedo effect. This effect results in the increased absorption of radiation that accelerates melting."}}</ref> Arctic surface temperatures are increasing [[polar amplification|between three and four times faster]] than in the rest of the world.<ref name="3X2021">{{cite web |date=20 May 2021 |title=Arctic warming three times faster than the planet, report warns |url=https://phys.org/news/2021-05-arctic-faster-planet.html |website=[[Phys.org]] |language=en |access-date=6 October 2022}}</ref><ref name="Rantanen2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Rantanen |first1=Mika |last2=Karpechko |first2=Alexey Yu |last3=Lipponen |first3=Antti |last4=Nordling |first4=Kalle |last5=Hyvärinen |first5=Otto |last6=Ruosteenoja |first6=Kimmo |last7=Vihma |first7=Timo |last8=Laaksonen |first8=Ari |date=11 August 2022 |title=The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979 |journal=Communications Earth & Environment |language=en |volume=3 |issue=1 |page=168 |doi=10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3 |s2cid=251498876 |issn=2662-4435|doi-access=free |bibcode=2022ComEE...3..168R }}</ref><ref name="4X2021">{{cite web |date=14 December 2021 |title=The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world |url=https://www.science.org/content/article/arctic-warming-four-times-faster-rest-world |language=en |access-date=6 October 2022}}</ref> Melting of [[ice sheet]]s near the poles weakens both the [[Atlantic meridional overturning circulation|Atlantic]] and the [[Southern Ocean overturning circulation|Antarctic]] limb of [[thermohaline circulation]], which further changes the distribution of heat and [[precipitation]] around the globe.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Liu |first1=Wei |last2=Fedorov |first2=Alexey V. |last3=Xie |first3=Shang-Ping |last4=Hu |first4=Shineng |date=26 June 2020 |title=Climate impacts of a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a warming climate |journal=Science Advances |volume=6 |issue=26 |pages=eaaz4876 |doi=10.1126/sciadv.aaz4876 |pmid=32637596 |pmc=7319730 |bibcode=2020SciA....6.4876L }}</ref><ref name="PearceYale3602023">{{cite web |last=Pearce |first=Fred |date=18 April 2023 |title=New Research Sparks Concerns That Ocean Circulation Will Collapse |url=https://e360.yale.edu/features/climate-change-ocean-circulation-collapse-antarctica |language=en |access-date=3 February 2024 }}</ref><ref name="Lee2023">{{Cite journal |last1=Lee |first1=Sang-Ki |last2=Lumpkin |first2=Rick |last3=Gomez |first3=Fabian |last4=Yeager |first4=Stephen |last5=Lopez |first5=Hosmay |last6=Takglis |first6=Filippos |last7=Dong |first7=Shenfu |last8=Aguiar |first8=Wilton |last9=Kim |first9=Dongmin |last10=Baringer |first10=Molly |date=13 March 2023 |title=Human-induced changes in the global meridional overturning circulation are emerging from the Southern Ocean |journal=Communications Earth & Environment |volume=4 |issue=1 |page=69 |doi=10.1038/s43247-023-00727-3 |bibcode=2023ComEE...4...69L }}</ref><ref name="NOAA2023">{{cite web |date=29 March 2023 |title=NOAA Scientists Detect a Reshaping of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Southern Ocean |url=https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/noaa-scientists-detect-reshaping-of-the-meridional-overturning-circulation-in-southern-ocean/ |publisher=[[NOAA]] }}</ref>

=== Future global temperatures ===
{{Further|Carbon budget|Earth's energy budget}}
[[File:Projected Change in Temperatures by 2090.svg|upright=1.35|thumb|[[Coupled Model Intercomparison Project#CMIP Phase 6|CMIP6]] multi-model projections of [[global surface temperature]] changes for the year 2090 relative to the 1850–1900 average. The current trajectory for warming by the end of the century is roughly half way between these two extremes.<ref name="UNEP2021" /><ref name="Schuur2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Schuur |first1=Edward A.G. |last2=Abbott |first2=Benjamin W. |last3=Commane |first3=Roisin |last4=Ernakovich |first4=Jessica |last5=Euskirchen |first5=Eugenie |last6=Hugelius |first6=Gustaf |last7=Grosse |first7=Guido |last8=Jones |first8=Miriam |last9=Koven |first9=Charlie |last10=Leshyk |first10=Victor |last11=Lawrence |first11=David |last12=Loranty |first12=Michael M. |last13=Mauritz |first13=Marguerite |last14=Olefeldt |first14=David |last15=Natali |first15=Susan |last16=Rodenhizer |first16=Heidi |last17=Salmon |first17=Verity |last18=Schädel |first18=Christina |last19=Strauss |first19=Jens |last20=Treat |first20=Claire |last21=Turetsky |first21=Merritt |year=2022 |title=Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic |journal=Annual Review of Environment and Resources |volume=47 |pages=343–371 |doi=10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847 |quote="Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement..." |doi-access=free }}</ref><ref name="Phiddian2022">{{Cite web |last=Phiddian |first=Ellen |date=5 April 2022 |title=Explainer: IPCC Scenarios |url=https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/explainer-ipcc-scenarios/ |website=[[Cosmos (magazine)|Cosmos]] |access-date=30 September 2023 |quote="The IPCC doesn’t make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. [[The Australian Academy of Science]], for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. [[Climate Action Tracker]] predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.}}</ref>]]
The [[World Meteorological Organization]] estimates a 66% chance of global temperatures exceeding 1.5&nbsp;°C warming from the preindustrial baseline for at least one year between 2023 and 2027.<ref>{{cite news |last1=McGrath |first1=Matt |title=Global warming set to break key 1.5C limit for first time |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65602293 |access-date=17 May 2023 |agency=BBC |date=17 May 2023}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Harvey |first1=Fiona |title=World likely to breach 1.5C climate threshold by 2027, scientists warn |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/17/global-heating-climate-crisis-record-temperatures-wmo-research |access-date=17 May 2023 |agency=The Guardian |date=17 May 2023}}</ref> Because the IPCC uses a 20 year average to define global temperature changes, a single year exceeding 1.5&nbsp;°C does not break the limit. 

The IPCC expects the 20-year average global temperature to exceed +1.5&nbsp;°C in the early 2030s.<ref>https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf#page=955</ref> The [[IPCC Sixth Assessment Report]] (2023) included projections that by 2100 global warming is very likely to reach 1.0&#x2011;1.8&nbsp;°C under a [[Shared Socioeconomic Pathways#SSP1: Sustainability (Taking the Green Road)|scenario with very low emissions of greenhouse gases]], 2.1&#x2011;3.5&nbsp;°C under an [[Shared Socioeconomic Pathways#SSP3: Regional rivalry (A Rocky Road)|intermediate emissions scenario]], 
or 3.3&#x2011;5.7&nbsp;°C under [[Shared Socioeconomic Pathways#SSP5: Fossil-Fueled Development (Taking the Highway)|a very high emissions scenario]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|p=SPM-17}}</ref> In the intermediate and high emission scenarios, the warming will continue past 2100.<ref name="Meinshausen2011">{{Cite journal |last1=Meinshausen |first1=Malte |last2=Smith |first2=S. J. |last3=Calvin |first3=K. |last4=Daniel |first4=J. S. |last5=Kainuma |first5=M. L. T. |last6=Lamarque |first6=J-F. |last7=Matsumoto |first7=K. |last8=Montzka |first8=S. A. |last9=Raper |first9=S. C. B. |last10=Riahi |first10=K. |last11=Thomson |first11=A. |last12=Velders |first12=G. J. M. |last13=van Vuuren |first13=D.P. P. |date=2011 |title=The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300 |journal=Climatic Change |language=en |volume=109 |issue=1–2 |pages=213–241 |doi=10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z |bibcode=2011ClCh..109..213M |issn=0165-0009|doi-access=free }}</ref><ref name="Lyon2021">{{cite journal |last1=Lyon |first1=Christopher |last2=Saupe |first2=Erin E. |last3=Smith |first3=Christopher J. |last4=Hill |first4=Daniel J. |last5=Beckerman |first5=Andrew P. |last6=Stringer |first6=Lindsay C. |last7=Marchant |first7=Robert |last8=McKay |first8=James |last9=Burke |first9=Ariane |last10=O'Higgins |first10=Paul |last11=Dunhill |first11=Alexander M. |last12=Allen |first12=Bethany J. |last13=Riel-Salvatore |first13=Julien |last14=Aze |first14=Tracy |year=2021 |title=Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100 |journal=Global Change Biology |language=en |volume=28 |issue=2 |pages=349–361 |doi=10.1111/gcb.15871 |issn=1365-2486 |pmid=34558764 |s2cid=237616583 |doi-access=free|hdl=20.500.11850/521222 |hdl-access=free }}</ref>

The remaining [[carbon budget]] for staying beneath certain temperature increases is determined by modelling the carbon cycle and [[climate sensitivity]] to greenhouse gases.<ref>{{harvnb|Rogelj|Forster|Kriegler|Smith|2019}}</ref> According to the IPCC, global warming can be kept below 1.5&nbsp;°C with a two-thirds chance if emissions after 2018 do not exceed 420 or 570 gigatonnes of {{CO2}}. This corresponds to 10 to 13 years of current emissions. <!-- Are those 10-13 years outdated in 2024? --> There are high uncertainties about the budget. For instance, it may be 100 gigatonnes of {{CO2}} equivalent smaller due to {{CO2}} and methane release from [[permafrost]] and [[Greenhouse gas emissions from wetlands|wetlands]].<ref name="IPCC-2018 p12">{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=12}}</ref> However, it is clear that fossil fuel resources need to be proactively kept in the ground to prevent substantial warming. Otherwise, their shortages would not occur until the emissions have already locked in significant long-term impacts.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch5|2014|pp=379–380}}.</ref>

== Causes of recent global temperature rise ==
{{Main|Attribution of recent climate change}}
[[File:Physical Drivers of climate change.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|right|Drivers of climate change from 1850–1900 to 2010–2019. There was no significant contribution from internal variability or solar and volcanic drivers.]]

The climate system experiences various cycles on its own which can last for years, decades or even centuries. For example, [[El Niño]] events cause short-term spikes in surface temperature while [[La Niña]] events cause short term cooling.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Brown |first1=Patrick T. |last2=Li |first2=Wenhong |last3=Xie |first3=Shang-Ping |title=Regions of significant influence on unforced global mean surface air temperature variability in climate models: Origin of global temperature variability |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |date=27 January 2015 |volume=120 |issue=2 |pages=480–494 |doi=10.1002/2014JD022576 |doi-access=free |hdl=10161/9564 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> Their relative frequency can affect global temperature trends on a decadal timescale.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Trenberth |first1=Kevin E. |last2=Fasullo |first2=John T. |title=An apparent hiatus in global warming? |journal=Earth's Future |date=December 2013 |volume=1 |issue=1 |pages=19–32 |doi=10.1002/2013EF000165 |bibcode=2013EaFut...1...19T |doi-access=free }}</ref> Other changes are caused by an [[Earth's Energy Imbalance|imbalance of energy]] from [[Climate forcing|external forcings]].<ref>{{Harvnb|National Research Council|2012|p=9}}</ref> Examples of these include changes in the concentrations of [[greenhouse gas]]es, [[solar luminosity]], [[volcano|volcanic]] eruptions, and [[orbital forcing|variations in the Earth's orbit]] around the Sun.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch10|2013|p=916}}.</ref>

To determine the human contribution to climate change, unique "fingerprints" for all potential causes are developed and compared with both observed patterns and known internal [[climate variability]].<ref>{{harvnb|Knutson|2017|p=443}}; {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch10|2013|pp=875–876}}</ref> For example, solar forcing—whose fingerprint involves warming the entire atmosphere—is ruled out because only the lower atmosphere has warmed.<ref name="USGCRP-2009" /> Atmospheric aerosols produce a smaller, cooling effect. Other drivers, such as changes in [[albedo]], are less impactful.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|p=7}}</ref>

=== Greenhouse gases ===
{{Main|Greenhouse gas|Greenhouse gas emissions|Greenhouse effect|Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere}}[[File:Carbon Dioxide 800kyr.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|{{CO2}} concentrations over the last 800,000 years as measured from ice cores<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Lüthi |first1=Dieter |last2=Le Floch |first2=Martine |last3=Bereiter |first3=Bernhard |last4=Blunier |first4=Thomas |last5=Barnola |first5=Jean-Marc |last6=Siegenthaler |first6=Urs |last7=Raynaud |first7=Dominique |last8=Jouzel |first8=Jean |last9=Fischer |first9=Hubertus |last10=Kawamura |first10=Kenji |last11=Stocker |first11=Thomas F. |date=May 2005 |title=High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present |journal=[[Nature (journal)|Nature]] |language=en |volume=453 |issue=7193 |pages=379–382 |doi=10.1038/nature06949 |pmid=18480821 |bibcode=2008Natur.453..379L |s2cid=1382081 |issn=0028-0836|doi-access=free }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Fischer |first1=Hubertus |last2=Wahlen |first2=Martin |last3=Smith |first3=Jesse |last4=Mastroianni |first4=Derek |last5=Deck |first5=Bruce |date=12 March 1999 |title=Ice Core Records of Atmospheric CO 2 Around the Last Three Glacial Terminations |url=https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.283.5408.1712 |journal=[[Science (journal)|Science]] |language=en |volume=283 |issue=5408 |pages=1712–1714 |doi=10.1126/science.283.5408.1712 |pmid=10073931 |bibcode=1999Sci...283.1712F |issn=0036-8075}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Indermühle |first1=Andreas |last2=Monnin |first2=Eric |last3=Stauffer |first3=Bernhard |last4=Stocker |first4=Thomas F. |last5=Wahlen |first5=Martin |date=1 March 2000 |title=Atmospheric CO 2 concentration from 60 to 20 kyr BP from the Taylor Dome Ice Core, Antarctica |url=http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/1999GL010960 |journal=[[Geophysical Research Letters]] |language=en |volume=27 |issue=5 |pages=735–738 |doi=10.1029/1999GL010960|bibcode=2000GeoRL..27..735I |s2cid=18942742}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last1=Etheridge |first1=D. |last2=Steele |first2=L. |last3=Langenfelds |first3=R. |last4=Francey |first4=R. |last5=Barnola |first5=J.-M. |last6=Morgan |first6=V. |date=1998 |title=Historical CO2 Records from the Law Dome DE08, DE08-2, and DSS Ice Cores |url=https://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/trends/co2/lawdome.html |access-date=20 November 2022 |website=Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory |agency=[[U.S. Department of Energy]]}}</ref> (blue/green) and directly<ref>{{Cite web |last1=Keeling |first1=C. |author-link=Charles David Keeling |last2=Whorf |first2=T. |date=2004 |title=Atmospheric CO2 Records from Sites in the SIO Air Sampling Network |url=https://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/trends/co2/sio-keel.html |access-date=20 November 2022 |website=[[Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center]], [[Oak Ridge National Laboratory]] |agency=[[U.S. Department of Energy]]}}</ref> (black)]]
Greenhouse gases are transparent to [[sunlight]], and thus allow it to pass through the atmosphere to heat the Earth's surface. The Earth [[Radiative cooling|radiates it as heat]], and greenhouse gases absorb a portion of it. This absorption slows the rate at which heat escapes into space, trapping heat near the Earth's surface and warming it over time.<ref>{{cite web|title=The Causes of Climate Change|author=NASA |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/causes|website=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet|access-date=8 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190508000022/https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/|archive-date=8 May 2019|url-status=live}}</ref>

While [[water vapour]] (≈50%) and clouds (≈25%) are the biggest contributors to the greenhouse effect, they primarily change as a function of temperature and are therefore mostly considered to be [[feedback]]s that change [[climate sensitivity]]. On the other hand, concentrations of gases such as {{CO2}} (≈20%), [[tropospheric ozone]],<ref>Ozone acts as a greenhouse gas in the lowest layer of the atmosphere, the [[troposphere]] (as opposed to the stratospheric [[ozone layer]]). {{harvnb|Wang|Shugart|Lerdau|2017}}</ref> [[Chlorofluorocarbon|CFCs]] and [[nitrous oxide]] are added or removed independently from temperature, and are therefore considered to be [[Radiative forcing|external forcings]] that change global temperatures.<ref>{{harvnb|Schmidt|Ruedy|Miller|Lacis|2010}}; {{harvnb|USGCRP Climate Science Supplement|2014|p=742}}</ref>

Before the [[Industrial Revolution]], naturally-occurring amounts of greenhouse gases caused the air near the surface to be about 33&nbsp;°C warmer than it would have been in their absence.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch1|2007|loc=FAQ1.1}}: "To emit 240 W m<sup>−2</sup>, a surface would have to have a temperature of around −19&nbsp;°C. This is much colder than the conditions that actually exist at the Earth's surface (the global mean surface temperature is about 14&nbsp;°C).</ref><ref>{{cite web|title=What Is the Greenhouse Effect?|author=ACS|author-link=American Chemical Society|url=https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect.html|access-date=26 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190526110653/https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect.html|archive-date=26 May 2019|url-status=live}}</ref> Human activity since the Industrial Revolution, mainly extracting and burning fossil fuels ([[coal]], [[Petroleum|oil]], and [[natural gas]]),<ref>{{Harvnb|The Guardian, 19 February|2020}}.</ref> has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, resulting in a [[radiative forcing|radiative imbalance]]. In 2019, the [[Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere|concentrations of {{CO2}}]] and methane had increased by about 48% and 160%, respectively, since 1750.<ref>{{Harvnb|WMO|2021|p=8}}.</ref> These {{CO2}} levels are higher than they have been at any time during the last 2 million years. [[Atmospheric methane|Concentrations of methane]] are far higher than they were over the last 800,000 years.{{Sfn|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=TS-35}}

[[File:CO2 Emissions by Source Since 1880.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|right|The [[Global Carbon Project]] shows how additions to {{CO2}} since 1880 have been caused by different sources ramping up one after another.]]

Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 were [[Global warming potential|equivalent to]] 59&nbsp;billion tonnes of {{CO2}}. Of these emissions, 75% was {{CO2}}, 18% was [[methane]], 4% was nitrous oxide, and 2% was [[fluorinated gases]].{{sfn|IPCC AR6 WG3 Summary for Policymakers|2022|loc=Figure SPM.1}} {{CO2}} emissions primarily come from burning fossil fuels to provide energy for [[transport]], manufacturing, [[Heating#Energy sources|heating]], and electricity.<ref name="auto2"/> Additional {{CO2}} emissions come from [[deforestation and climate change|deforestation]] and [[Industrial processes#Chemical processes by main basic material|industrial processes]], which include the {{CO2}} released by the chemical reactions for [[Cement#Chemistry|making cement]], [[Blast furnace#Process engineering and chemistry|steel]], [[Hall–Héroult process|aluminum]], and [[haber process|fertiliser]].<ref>{{harvnb|Olivier|Peters|2019|p=17}}; {{harvnb|Our World in Data, 18 September|2020}}; {{harvnb|EPA|2020|ps=: Greenhouse gas emissions from industry primarily come from burning fossil fuels for energy, as well as greenhouse gas emissions from certain chemical reactions necessary to produce goods from raw materials}}; {{cite web|title=Redox, extraction of iron and transition metals|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zv7f3k7/revision/2|quote=Hot air (oxygen) reacts with the coke (carbon) to produce carbon dioxide and heat energy to heat up the furnace. Removing impurities: The calcium carbonate in the limestone thermally decomposes to form calcium oxide. calcium carbonate → calcium oxide + carbon dioxide}}; {{harvnb|Kvande|2014|ps=: Carbon dioxide gas is formed at the anode, as the carbon anode is consumed upon reaction of carbon with the oxygen ions from the alumina (Al<sub>2</sub>O<sub>3</sub>). Formation of carbon dioxide is unavoidable as long as carbon anodes are used, and it is of great concern because CO<sub>2</sub> is a greenhouse gas}}</ref> Methane emissions [[enteric fermentation|come from livestock]], manure, [[Environmental impact of rice cultivation|rice cultivation]], landfills, wastewater, and [[coal seam gas|coal mining]], as well as [[fugitive gas emissions|oil and gas extraction]].<ref>{{harvnb|EPA|2020}}; {{harvnb|Global Methane Initiative|2020|ps=: Estimated Global Anthropogenic Methane Emissions by Source, 2020: [[Enteric fermentation]] (27%), Manure Management (3%), Coal Mining (9%), [[Municipal Solid Waste]] (11%), Oil & Gas (24%), [[Wastewater]] (7%), [[Rice|Rice Cultivation]] (7%)}}</ref> Nitrous oxide emissions largely come from the microbial decomposition of [[fertilizer|fertiliser]].<ref>{{harvnb|EPA|2019|ps=: Agricultural activities, such as fertilizer use, are the primary source of N<sub>2</sub>O emissions}}; {{harvnb|Davidson|2009|ps=: 2.0% of manure nitrogen and 2.5% of fertilizer nitrogen was converted to nitrous oxide between 1860 and 2005; these percentage contributions explain the entire pattern of increasing nitrous oxide concentrations over this period}}</ref>

While methane only lasts in the atmosphere for an average of 12 years,<ref>{{cite web |title=Understanding methane emissions |publisher=International Energy Agency |url=https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2023/understanding-methane-emissions}}</ref> {{CO2}} lasts much longer. The Earth's surface absorbs CO2 as part of the [[carbon cycle]]. While plants on land and in the ocean absorb most excess emissions of {{CO2}} every year, that {{CO2}} is returned back to the atmosphere when biological matter is digested, burns, or decays.<ref name="nasacc">{{cite web|last1=Riebeek|first1=Holli|title=The Carbon Cycle|url=http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/?src=eoa-features|website=Earth Observatory|publisher=NASA|access-date=5 April 2018|date=16 June 2011|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160305010126/http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/?src=eoa-features|archive-date=5 March 2016|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> Land-surface [[carbon sink]] processes, such as [[carbon fixation]] in the soil and photosynthesis, remove about 29% of annual global {{CO2}} emissions.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=10}}</ref> The ocean has absorbed 20 to 30% of emitted {{CO2}} over the last 2 decades.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=450}}.</ref> {{CO2}} is only removed from the atmosphere for the long term when it is stored in the Earth's crust, which is a process that can take millions of years to complete.<ref name="nasacc" />

=== Land surface changes ===
[[File:20210331 Global tree cover loss - World Resources Institute.svg|thumb|upright=1.35 |right |The rate of global tree cover loss has approximately doubled since 2001, to an annual loss approaching an area the size of Italy.<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, 31 March|2021}}</ref>]]
According to [[Food and Agriculture Organization]], around 30% of Earth's land area is largely unusable for humans ([[glacier]]s, [[desert]]s, etc.), 26% is [[forest]]s, 10% is [[shrubland]] and 34% is [[agricultural land]].<ref>{{harvnb|Ritchie|Roser|2018}}</ref> [[Deforestation]] is the main [[land use change]] contributor to global warming,<ref>{{harvnb|The Sustainability Consortium, 13 September|2018}}; {{harvnb|UN FAO|2016|p=18}}.</ref> as the destroyed trees release {{CO2}}, and are not replaced by new trees, removing that [[carbon sink]].<ref name="IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers 2019 18"/> Between 2001 and 2018, 27% of deforestation was from permanent clearing to enable [[agricultural expansion]] for crops and livestock. Another 24% has been lost to temporary clearing under the [[shifting cultivation]] agricultural systems. 26% was due to [[logging]] for wood and derived products, and [[wildfire]]s have accounted for the remaining 23%.<ref>{{harvnb|Curtis|Slay|Harris|Tyukavina|2018}}</ref> Some forests have not been fully cleared, but were already degraded by these impacts. Restoring these forests also recovers their potential as a carbon sink.<ref name="Duchelle-2022">{{Cite book |author1=Garrett, L. |author2=Lévite, H. |author3=Besacier, C. |author4=Alekseeva, N. |author5=Duchelle, M. |url=https://doi.org/10.4060/cc2510en |title=The key role of forest and landscape restoration in climate action |publisher=FAO |year=2022 |isbn=978-92-5-137044-5 |location=Rome|doi=10.4060/cc2510en }}</ref>

Local vegetation cover impacts how much of the sunlight gets reflected back into space ([[albedo]]), and how much [[evaporative cooling|heat is lost by evaporation]]. For instance, the change from a dark [[forest]] to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to reflect more sunlight. Deforestation can also modify the release of chemical compounds that influence clouds, and by changing wind patterns.<ref name="Seymour 2019">{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, 8 December|2019}}</ref> In tropic and temperate areas the net effect is to produce significant warming, and forest restoration can make local temperatures cooler.<ref name="Duchelle-2022"/> At latitudes closer to the poles, there is a cooling effect as forest is replaced by snow-covered (and more reflective) plains.<ref name="Seymour 2019" /> Globally, these increases in surface albedo have been the dominant direct influence on temperature from land use change. Thus, land use change to date is estimated to have a slight cooling effect.<ref name="IPCC Special Report: Climate change and Land p2-54">{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|p=172|ps=: "The global biophysical cooling alone has been estimated by a larger range of climate models and is −0.10 ± 0.14&nbsp;°C; it ranges from −0.57&nbsp;°C to +0.06°C&nbsp;... This cooling is essentially dominated by increases in surface albedo: historical land cover changes have generally led to a dominant brightening of land"}}</ref>

=== Other factors ===
==== Aerosols and clouds ====
Air pollution, in the form of [[Particulates#Climate effects|aerosols, affects the climate]] on a large scale.<ref>{{Harvnb|Haywood|2016|p=456}}; {{harvnb|McNeill|2017}}; {{harvnb|Samset|Sand|Smith|Bauer|2018}}.</ref> Aerosols scatter and absorb solar radiation. From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of [[irradiance|sunlight reaching the Earth's surface]] was observed. This phenomenon is popularly known as ''[[global dimming]]'',<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch2|2013|p=183}}.</ref> and is primarily attributed to [[sulfate]] aerosols produced by the combustion of fossil fuels with heavy sulfur concentrations like [[coal]] and [[bunker fuel]].<ref name="Quaas2022" /> Smaller contributions come from [[black carbon]], organic carbon from combustion of fossil fuels and biofuels, and from anthropogenic dust.<ref>{{harvnb|He|Wang|Zhou|Wild|2018}}; {{Harvnb|Storelvmo|Phillips|Lohmann|Leirvik|2016}}</ref><ref name="NASA2007">{{cite news |date=15 March 2007 |title=Global 'Sunscreen' Has Likely Thinned, Report NASA Scientists |publisher=[[NASA]] |url=http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2007/aerosol_dimming.html}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=18 February 2021 |title=Aerosol pollution has caused decades of global dimming |url=https://news.agu.org/press-release/aerosol-pollution-caused-decades-of-global-dimming/ |website=[[American Geophysical Union]] |access-date=18 December 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230327143716/https://news.agu.org/press-release/aerosol-pollution-caused-decades-of-global-dimming/ |archive-date=27 March 2023 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |title=Double Trouble of Air Pollution by Anthropogenic Dust |year=2022 |doi=10.1021/acs.est.1c04779 |url=https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.1c04779|last1=Xia |first1=Wenwen |last2=Wang |first2=Yong |last3=Chen |first3=Siyu |last4=Huang |first4=Jianping |last5=Wang |first5=Bin |last6=Zhang |first6=Guang J. |last7=Zhang |first7=Yue |last8=Liu |first8=Xiaohong |last9=Ma |first9=Jianmin |last10=Gong |first10=Peng |last11=Jiang |first11=Yiquan |last12=Wu |first12=Mingxuan |last13=Xue |first13=Jinkai |last14=Wei |first14=Linyi |last15=Zhang |first15=Tinghan |journal=Environmental Science & Technology |volume=56 |issue=2 |pages=761–769 |pmid=34941248 |bibcode=2022EnST...56..761X |hdl=10138/341962 |s2cid=245445736 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Global Dimming Dilemma |date=4 June 2020 |url=https://www.scientistswarning.org/2020/06/04/dimming-dilemma/}}</ref> Globally, aerosols have been declining since 1990 due to pollution controls, meaning that they no longer mask greenhouse gas warming as much.<ref>{{harvnb|Wild|Gilgen|Roesch|Ohmura|2005}}; {{Harvnb|Storelvmo|Phillips|Lohmann|Leirvik|2016}}; {{harvnb|Samset|Sand|Smith|Bauer|2018}}.</ref><ref name="Quaas2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Quaas |first1=Johannes |last2=Jia |first2=Hailing |last3=Smith |first3=Chris |last4=Albright |first4=Anna Lea |last5=Aas |first5=Wenche |last6=Bellouin |first6=Nicolas |last7=Boucher |first7=Olivier |last8=Doutriaux-Boucher |first8=Marie |last9=Forster |first9=Piers M. |last10=Grosvenor |first10=Daniel |last11=Jenkins |first11=Stuart |last12=Klimont |first12=Zbigniew |last13=Loeb |first13=Norman G. |last14=Ma |first14=Xiaoyan |last15=Naik |first15=Vaishali |last16=Paulot |first16=Fabien |last17=Stier |first17=Philip |last18=Wild |first18=Martin |last19=Myhre |first19=Gunnar |last20=Schulz |first20=Michael |date=21 September 2022 |title=Robust evidence for reversal of the trend in aerosol effective climate forcing |url=https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/12221/2022/ |journal=Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |volume=22 |issue=18 |pages=12221–12239 |language=en |doi=10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022 |s2cid=252446168 |hdl=20.500.11850/572791 |hdl-access=free |doi-access=free |bibcode=2022ACP....2212221Q }}</ref>

Aerosols also have indirect effects on the [[Earth's energy budget]]. Sulfate aerosols act as [[cloud condensation nuclei]] and lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets.<ref>{{harvnb|Twomey|1977}}.</ref> They also reduce the [[Cloud physics#Collision-coalescence|growth of raindrops]], which makes clouds more reflective to incoming sunlight.<ref>{{harvnb|Albrecht|1989}}.</ref> Indirect effects of aerosols are the largest uncertainty in [[radiative forcing]].<ref name=USGCRP_2017_ch2/>

While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, [[black carbon]] in [[soot]] that falls on snow or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea-level rise.<ref>{{harvnb|Ramanathan|Carmichael|2008}}; {{harvnb|RIVM|2016}}.</ref> Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2&nbsp;°C by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|Sand|Berntsen|von Salzen|Flanner|2015}}</ref>

==== Solar and volcanic activity ====
{{Further|Solar activity and climate}}
[[File:2017 Global warming attribution - based on NCA4 Fig 3.3 - single-panel version.svg|thumb|right|upright=1.35| The [[Fourth National Climate Assessment]] ("NCA4", USGCRP, 2017) includes charts illustrating that neither solar nor volcanic activity can explain the observed warming.<ref>{{cite journal |title=Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I - Chapter 3: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change |url=https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/3/ |website=science2017.globalchange.gov |publisher=U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190923190450/https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/3/ |archive-date=23 September 2019 |date=2017 |pages=1–470 |url-status=live}} Adapted directly from Fig. 3.3.</ref><ref>{{cite journal |title=Climate Science Special Report / Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I /Executive Summary / Highlights of the Findings of the U.S. Global Change Research Program Climate Science Special Report |url=https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/executive-summary/ |website=globalchange.gov |publisher=U.S. Global Change Research Program |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190614150544/https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/executive-summary/ |archive-date=14 June 2019 |date=23 November 2018 |doi=10.7930/J0DJ5CTG |url-status=live |last1=Wuebbles |first1=D.J. |last2=Fahey |first2=D.W. |last3=Hibbard |first3=K.A. |last4=Deangelo |first4=B. |last5=Doherty |first5=S. |last6=Hayhoe |first6=K. |last7=Horton |first7=R. |last8=Kossin |first8=J.P. |last9=Taylor |first9=P.C. |last10=Waple |first10=A.M. |last11=Yohe |first11=C.P. |pages=1–470 |doi-access=free}}</ref>]]
As the Sun is the Earth's primary energy source, changes in incoming sunlight directly affect the [[climate system]].<ref name=USGCRP_2017_ch2>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|p=78}}.</ref> [[solar variation|Solar irradiance]] has been measured directly by [[satellite]]s,<ref>{{Harvnb|National Academies|2008|p=6}}</ref> and indirect measurements are available from the early 1600s onwards.<ref name=USGCRP_2017_ch2 /> Since 1880, there has been no upward trend in the amount of the Sun's energy reaching the Earth, in contrast to the warming of the lower atmosphere (the [[troposphere]]).<ref>{{cite web|title=Is the Sun causing global warming?|website=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet|url=https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming|access-date=10 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190505160051/https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming/|archive-date=5 May 2019|url-status=live}}</ref> The upper atmosphere (the [[stratosphere]]) would also be warming if the Sun was sending more energy to Earth, but instead, it has been cooling.<ref name="USGCRP-2009">{{Harvnb|USGCRP|2009|p=20}}.</ref> 
This is consistent with greenhouse gases preventing heat from leaving the Earth's atmosphere.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch9|2007|pp=702–703}}; {{harvnb|Randel|Shine|Austin|Barnett|2009}}.</ref> 

[[Types of volcanic eruptions#Plinian|Explosive volcanic eruptions]] can release gases, dust and ash that partially block sunlight and reduce temperatures, or they can send water vapor into the atmosphere, which adds to greenhouse gases and increases temperatures.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3204/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere/ |title=Tonga eruption blasted unprecedented amount of water into stratosphere |last=Greicius |first=Tony |date=2 August 2022 |website=NASA Global Climate Change |access-date=18 January 2024 |quote=Massive volcanic eruptions like Krakatoa and Mount Pinatubo typically cool Earth’s surface by ejecting gases, dust, and ash that reflect sunlight back into space. In contrast, the Tonga volcano didn’t inject large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere, and the huge amounts of water vapor from the eruption may have a small, temporary warming effect, since water vapor traps heat. The effect would dissipate when the extra water vapor cycles out of the stratosphere and would not be enough to noticeably exacerbate climate change effects.}}</ref> These impacts on temperature only last for several years, because both water vapor and volcanic material have low persistence in the atmosphere.<ref>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|p=79}}</ref> [[Volcanic gas|volcanic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions]] are more persistent, but they are equivalent to less than 1% of current human-caused CO<sub>2</sub> emissions.{{sfn|Fischer|Aiuppa|2020}} Volcanic activity still represents the single largest natural impact (forcing) on temperature in the industrial era. Yet, like the other natural forcings, it has had negligible impacts on global temperature trends since the Industrial Revolution.<ref>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|p=79}}</ref>

==== Climate change feedbacks ====
{{Main|Climate change feedbacks|Climate sensitivity}}
[[File:NORTH POLE Ice (19626661335).jpg|thumb|upright=1.35 |Sea ice reflects 50% to 70% of incoming sunlight, while the ocean, being darker, reflects only 6%. As an area of sea ice melts and exposes more ocean, more heat is absorbed by the ocean, raising temperatures that melt still more ice. This is a positive feedback [[Ice–albedo feedback|process]].<ref>{{cite web |url=https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/albedo.html |title=Thermodynamics: Albedo |work=NSIDC |access-date=10 October 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171011021602/https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/albedo.html |archive-date=11 October 2017 |url-status=live }}</ref>]]

The response of the climate system to an initial forcing is modified by feedbacks: increased by [[positive feedback|"self-reinforcing" or "positive" feedbacks]] and reduced by [[negative feedback|"balancing" or "negative" feedbacks]].<ref>{{cite web |title=The study of Earth as an integrated system |publisher=Earth Science Communications Team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory / California Institute of Technology |year=2013 |series=Vitals Signs of the Planet |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190226190002/https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/ |archive-date=26 February 2019 |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/ |url-status=live}}</ref> The main reinforcing feedbacks are the [[Water vapour feedback|water-vapour feedback]], the [[ice–albedo feedback]], and the net effect of clouds.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=89–91}}<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=58|ps=: The net effect of changes in clouds in response to global warming is to amplify human-induced warming, that is, the net cloud feedback is positive (high confidence)}}</ref> The primary balancing mechanism is [[radiative cooling]], as Earth's surface gives off more [[Infrared|heat]] to space in response to rising temperature.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=89–90}} In addition to temperature feedbacks, there are feedbacks in the carbon cycle, such as the fertilising effect of {{CO2}} on plant growth.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013|p=14}}</ref>

Uncertainty over feedbacks, particularly cloud cover,<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|pp=58, 59|ps=: clouds remain the largest contribution to overall uncertainty in climate feedbacks}}</ref> is the major reason why different climate models project different magnitudes of warming for a given amount of emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|Wolff|Shepherd|Shuckburgh|Watson|2015|ps=: "the nature and magnitude of these feedbacks are the principal cause of uncertainty in the response of Earth's climate (over multi-decadal and longer periods) to a particular emissions scenario or greenhouse gas concentration pathway."}}</ref> As air warms, [[Relative humidity|it can hold more moisture]]. Water vapour, as a potent greenhouse gas, holds heat in the atmosphere.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=89–91}} If cloud cover increases, more sunlight will be reflected back into space, cooling the planet. If clouds become higher and thinner, they act as an insulator, reflecting heat from below back downwards and warming the planet.{{sfn|Williams|Ceppi|Katavouta|2020}}

Another major feedback is the reduction of snow cover and sea ice in the Arctic, which reduces the reflectivity of the Earth's surface.<ref>{{harvnb|NASA, 28 May|2013}}.</ref>
More of the Sun's energy is now absorbed in these regions, contributing to [[polar amplification|amplification of Arctic temperature changes]].<ref>{{harvnb|Cohen|Screen|Furtado|Barlow|2014}}.</ref> Arctic amplification is also thawing [[permafrost]], which releases methane and {{CO2}} into the atmosphere.<ref name="Turetsky 2019">{{harvnb|Turetsky|Abbott|Jones|Anthony|2019}}</ref> Climate change can also cause methane releases from [[wetland]]s, marine systems, and freshwater systems.{{sfn|Dean|Middelburg|Röckmann|Aerts|2018}} Overall, climate feedbacks are expected to become increasingly positive.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=58|ps=: Feedback processes are expected to become more positive overall (more amplifying of global surface temperature changes) on multi-decadal time scales as the spatial pattern of surface warming evolves and global surface temperature increases.}}</ref>

Around half of human-caused {{CO2}} emissions have been absorbed by land plants and by the oceans.<ref>{{harvnb|Climate.gov, 23 June|2022|ps=:"Carbon cycle experts estimate that natural "sinks"—processes that remove carbon from the atmosphere—on land and in the ocean absorbed the equivalent of about half of the carbon dioxide we emitted each year in the 2011–2020 decade."}}</ref> This fraction is not static and if future {{CO2}} emissions decrease, the Earth will be able to absorb up to around 70%. If they increase substantially, it'll still absorb more carbon than now, but the overall fraction will decrease to below 40%.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=TS-122|loc=Box TS.5, Figure 1}}</ref> This is because climate change increases droughts and heat waves that eventually inhibit plant growth on land, and soils will release more carbon from dead plants [[Soil carbon feedback|when they are warmer]].<ref>{{harvnb|Melillo|Frey|DeAngelis|Werner|2017}}: Our first-order estimate of a warming-induced loss of 190 Pg of soil carbon over the 21st century is equivalent to the past two decades of carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning.</ref><ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|pp=133, 144}}.</ref> The rate at which oceans absorb atmospheric carbon will be lowered as they become more acidic and experience changes in [[thermohaline circulation]] and [[phytoplankton]] distribution.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=93–95}}<ref name="Liu2022">{{cite journal |last1=Liu |first1=Y. |last2=Moore |first2=J. K. |last3=Primeau |first3=F. |last4=Wang |first4=W. L. |date=22 December 2022 |title=Reduced CO2 uptake and growing nutrient sequestration from slowing overturning circulation |journal=Nature Climate Change |volume=13 |pages=83–90 |doi=10.1038/s41558-022-01555-7 |osti=2242376 |s2cid=255028552 }}</ref><ref name="PearceYale3602023"/>

== Modelling ==
{{Further|Climate model|Climate change scenario}}
[[File:Greenhouse Effect.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|right|'''Simplified model:''' Energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and Earth's surface, with greenhouse gases in the atmosphere absorbing and emitting radiant heat, affecting [[Earth's energy budget|Earth's energy balance]]. Data as of 2007.]]
A [[climate model]] is a representation of the physical, chemical and biological processes that affect the climate system.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014|p=120}}.</ref> Models include natural processes like changes in the Earth's orbit, historical changes in the Sun's activity, and volcanic forcing.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=[https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work#types "What are the different types of climate models?"]}}</ref> Models are used to estimate the degree of warming future emissions will cause when accounting for the [[Climate sensitivity|strength of climate feedbacks]],<ref>{{harvnb|Wolff|Shepherd|Shuckburgh|Watson|2015}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=[https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work#who "Who does climate modelling around the world?"]}}</ref>. Models also predict the circulation of the oceans, the annual cycle of the seasons, and the flows of carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=[https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work#what "What is a climate model?"]}}</ref>

The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate contemporary or past climates.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch8|2007}}, FAQ 8.1.</ref> Past models have underestimated the rate of [[Arctic shrinkage]]<ref>{{harvnb|Stroeve|Holland|Meier|Scambos|2007}}; {{harvnb|National Geographic, 13 August|2019}}</ref> and underestimated the rate of precipitation increase.<ref>{{harvnb|Liepert|Previdi|2009}}.</ref> Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but more recent models agree well with observations.<ref>{{harvnb|Rahmstorf|Cazenave|Church|Hansen|2007}}; {{harvnb|Mitchum|Masters|Hamlington|Fasullo|2018}}</ref> The 2017 United States-published [[National Climate Assessment]] notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes".<ref>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 15|2017}}.</ref> Additionally, climate models may be unable to adequately predict short-term regional climatic shifts.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Hébert |first1=R. |last2=Herzschuh |first2=U. |last3=Laepple |first3=T. |date=31 October 2022 |title=Millennial-scale climate variability over land overprinted by ocean temperature fluctuations |journal=[[Nature Geoscience]] |volume=15 |issue=1 |pages=899–905 |doi=10.1038/s41561-022-01056-4 |pmid=36817575 |pmc=7614181 |bibcode=2022NatGe..15..899H }}</ref>

A [[Integrated assessment modelling|subset of climate models]] add societal factors to a physical climate model. These models simulate how population, [[economic growth]], and energy use affect—and interact with—the physical climate. With this information, these models can produce scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions. This is then used as input for physical climate models and carbon cycle models to predict how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=[https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work#inout "What are the inputs and outputs for a climate model?"]}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Matthews|Gillett|Stott|Zickfeld|2009}}</ref> Depending on the [[Shared Socioeconomic Pathways|socioeconomic scenario]] and the mitigation scenario, models produce atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations that range widely between 380 and 1400 ppm.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 19 April|2018}}; {{harvnb|Meinshausen|2019|p=462}}.</ref>

== Impacts ==
{{Main|Effects of climate change}}

[[File:Soil moisture and climate change.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|The sixth IPCC Assessment Report projects changes in average soil moisture that can disrupt agriculture and ecosystems. A reduction in soil moisture by one [[standard deviation]] means that average soil moisture will approximately match the ninth driest year between 1850 and 1900 at that location.]]

=== Environmental effects ===
{{Further|Effects of climate change on oceans|Effects of climate change on the water cycle}}
The environmental effects of climate change are broad and far-reaching, [[Effects of climate change on oceans|affecting oceans]], ice, and weather. Changes may occur gradually or rapidly. Evidence for these effects comes from studying climate change in the past, from modelling, and from modern observations.<ref>{{harvnb|Hansen|Sato|Hearty|Ruedy|2016}}; {{harvnb|Smithsonian, 26 June|2016}}.</ref> Since the 1950s, [[drought]]s and heat waves have appeared simultaneously with increasing frequency.<ref>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 15|2017|p=415}}.</ref> Extremely wet or dry events within the [[monsoon]] period have increased in India and East Asia.<ref>{{harvnb|Scientific American, 29 April|2014}}; {{harvnb|Burke|Stott|2017}}.</ref> Monsoonal precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere has increased since 1980.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Liu |first1=Fei |last2=Wang |first2=Bin |last3=Ouyang |first3=Yu |last4=Wang |first4=Hui |last5=Qiao |first5=Shaobo |last6=Chen |first6=Guosen |last7=Dong |first7=Wenjie |date=19 April 2022 |title=Intraseasonal variability of global land monsoon precipitation and its recent trend |journal=npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |language=en |volume=5 |issue=1 |page=30 |doi=10.1038/s41612-022-00253-7 |bibcode=2022npjCA...5...30L |issn=2397-3722 |doi-access=free }}</ref> The rainfall rate and intensity of [[Tropical cyclones and climate change|hurricanes and typhoons is likely increasing]],<ref name="USGCRP-2017">{{Harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 9|2017|p=260}}.</ref> and the geographic range likely expanding poleward in response to climate warming.<ref>{{cite journal |first1=Joshua |last1=Studholme |first2=Alexey V. |last2=Fedorov |first3=Sergey K. |last3=Gulev |first4=Kerry |last4=Emanuel |first5=Kevin |last5=Hodges |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00859-1 |title=Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates |date=29 December 2021 |journal=[[Nature Geoscience]] |volume=15 |pages=14–28 |doi=10.1038/s41561-021-00859-1 |s2cid=245540084}}</ref> Frequency of tropical cyclones has not increased as a result of climate change.<ref>{{cite web |title=Hurricanes and Climate Change |url=https://www.c2es.org/content/hurricanes-and-climate-change/ |website=[[Center for Climate and Energy Solutions]] |date=10 July 2020}}</ref> 

[[File:Sea level history and projections.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Historical sea level reconstruction and projections up to 2100 published in 2017 by the U.S. Global Change Research Program<ref>{{harvnb|NOAA|2017}}.</ref>]]
Global sea level is rising as a consequence of [[thermal expansion]] and [[Retreat of glaciers since 1850|the melting of glaciers]] and [[ice sheets]]. Between 1993 and 2020, the rise increased over time, averaging 3.3&nbsp;±&nbsp;0.3&nbsp;mm per year.<ref>{{harvnb|WMO|2021|p=12}}.</ref> Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects 32–62&nbsp;cm of sea level rise under a low emission scenario, 44–76&nbsp;cm under an intermediate one and 65–101&nbsp;cm under a very high emission scenario.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022|p=1302}}</ref> [[Marine ice sheet instability]] processes in Antarctica may add substantially to these values,<ref>{{harvnb|DeConto|Pollard|2016}}</ref> including the possibility of a 2-meter sea level rise by 2100 under high emissions.{{sfn|Bamber|Oppenheimer|Kopp|Aspinall|2019}}

Climate change has led to decades of [[Arctic sea ice decline|shrinking and thinning of the Arctic sea ice]].<ref>{{harvnb|Zhang|Lindsay|Steele|Schweiger|2008}}</ref> While ice-free summers are expected to be rare at 1.5&nbsp;°C degrees of warming, they are set to occur once every three to ten years at a warming level of 2&nbsp;°C.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=18}}</ref> Higher atmospheric {{CO2}} concentrations cause more {{CO2}} to dissolve in the oceans, which is [[ocean acidification|making them more acidic]].<ref>{{Harvnb|Doney|Fabry|Feely|Kleypas|2009}}.</ref> Because oxygen is less soluble in warmer water,<ref>{{harvnb|Deutsch|Brix|Ito|Frenzel|2011}}</ref> its concentrations in the ocean [[ocean deoxygenation|are decreasing]], and [[Dead zone (ecology)|dead zones]] are expanding.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=510}}; {{cite web |title=Climate Change and Harmful Algal Blooms |date=5 September 2013 |url=https://www.epa.gov/nutrientpollution/climate-change-and-harmful-algal-blooms |publisher=[[United States Environmental Protection Agency|EPA]] |access-date=11 September 2020}}</ref>

=== Tipping points and long-term impacts ===
[[File:Tipping_points_2022_list.jpeg|thumb|upright=1.35 |Different levels of global warming may cause different parts of Earth's climate system to reach respective tipping points that cause transitions to different states.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Tipping Elements – big risks in the Earth System |url=https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/output/infodesk/tipping-elements |publisher=[[Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research]] |access-date=31 January 2024 }}</ref><ref name="ArmstrongMcKay2022" />]]
{{Main|Tipping points in the climate system}}
Greater degrees of global warming increase the risk of passing through '[[Tipping points in the climate system|tipping points]]'—thresholds beyond which certain major impacts can no longer be avoided even if temperatures return to their previous state.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018|p=283}}.</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Pearce |first1=Rosamund |last2=Prater |first2=Tom |title=Nine Tipping Points That Could Be Triggered by Climate Change |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-nine-tipping-points-that-could-be-triggered-by-climate-change/ |publisher=CarbonBrief | date=10 February 2020 |access-date=27 May 2022}}</ref> For instance, the [[Greenland ice sheet]] is already melting, but if global warming reaches levels between 1.7&nbsp;°C and 2.3&nbsp;°C, its melting will continue until it fully disappears. If the warming is later reduced to 1.5&nbsp;°C or less, it will still lose a lot more ice than if the warming was never allowed to reach the threshold in the first place.<ref name="Bochow2023">{{cite journal |last1=Bochow |first1=Nils |last2=Poltronieri |first2=Anna |last3=Robinson |first3=Alexander |last4=Montoya |first4=Marisa |last5=Rypdal |first5=Martin |last6=Boers |first6=Niklas |date=18 October 2023 |title=Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet |journal=Nature |volume=622 |issue=7983 |pages=528–536 |bibcode=2023Natur.622..528B |doi=10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9 |pmc=10584691 |pmid=37853149}}</ref> While the ice sheets would melt over millennia, other tipping points would occur faster and give societies less time to respond. The collapse of major [[ocean current]]s like the [[Atlantic meridional overturning circulation]] (AMOC), and irreversible damage to key ecosystems like the [[Amazon rainforest]] and [[coral reefs]] can unfold in a matter of decades.<ref name="ArmstrongMcKay2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Armstrong McKay |first1=David I. |last2=Staal |first2=Arie |last3=Abrams |first3=Jesse F. |last4=Winkelmann |first4=Ricarda |last5=Sakschewski |first5=Boris |last6=Loriani |first6=Sina |last7=Fetzer |first7=Ingo |last8=Cornell |first8=Sarah E. |last9=Rockström |first9=Johan |last10=Lenton |first10=Timothy M. |date=9 September 2022 |title=Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points |url=https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950 |journal=[[Science (journal)|Science]] |language=en |volume=377 |issue=6611 |pages=eabn7950 |doi=10.1126/science.abn7950 |pmid=36074831 |hdl=10871/131584 |s2cid=252161375 |issn=0036-8075|hdl-access=free }}</ref>

The long-term [[effects of climate change on oceans]] include further ice melt, [[Ocean temperature#Increasing temperature due to climate change|ocean warming]], sea level rise, ocean acidification and ocean deoxygenation.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|p=21}}</ref> The timescale of long term impacts are centuries to millennia due to {{CO2}}'s long atmospheric lifetime.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013|pp=88–89|loc=FAQ 12.3}}</ref> When net emissions stabilise surface air temperatures will also stabilise, but oceans and ice caps will continue to absorb excess heat from the atmosphere. The result is an estimated total sea level rise of {{convert|2.3|m/°C|ft/°F}} after 2000 years.<ref>{{harvnb|Smith|Schneider|Oppenheimer|Yohe|2009}}; {{harvnb|Levermann|Clark|Marzeion|Milne|2013}}</ref> Oceanic {{CO2}} uptake is slow enough that ocean acidification will also continue for hundreds to thousands of years.{{sfn|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013|p=1112}} Deep oceans (below {{convert|2000|m|ft}}) are also already committed to losing over 10% of their dissolved oxygen by the warming which occurred to date.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Oschlies |first1=Andreas |title=A committed fourfold increase in ocean oxygen loss |journal=Nature Communications |date=16 April 2021 |volume=12 |issue=1 |page=2307 |doi=10.1038/s41467-021-22584-4 |pmid=33863893 |pmc=8052459 |bibcode=2021NatCo..12.2307O }}</ref> Further, [[West Antarctic ice sheet]] appears committed to practically irreversible melting, which would increase the sea levels by at least {{convert|3.3|m|ftin|abbr=on}} over approximately 2000 years.<ref name="ArmstrongMcKay2022" /><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.science.org/content/article/discovery-recent-antarctic-ice-sheet-collapse-raises-fears-new-global-flood|title=Discovery of recent Antarctic ice sheet collapse raises fears of a new global flood|last=Voosen|first=Paul|date=18 December 2018|website=Science|language=en|access-date=28 December 2018}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Turney|first1=Chris S. M.|last2=Fogwill|first2=Christopher J.|last3=Golledge|first3=Nicholas R.|last4=McKay |first4=Nicholas P. |last5=Sebille |first5=Erik van |last6=Jones |first6=Richard T. |last7=Etheridge |first7=David|last8=Rubino |first8=Mauro|last9=Thornton|first9=David P. |last10=Davies|first10=Siwan M.|last11=Ramsey|first11=Christopher Bronk|date=11 February 2020|title=Early Last Interglacial ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |volume=117 |issue=8 |pages=3996–4006 |language=en |doi=10.1073/pnas.1902469117|issn=0027-8424 |pmid=32047039 |pmc=7049167 |bibcode=2020PNAS..117.3996T|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref name="Carlson2018">{{Cite conference |last1=Carlson |first1=Anders E |last2=Walczak |first2=Maureen H |last3=Beard |first3=Brian L |last4=Laffin |first4=Matthew K |last5=Stoner |first5=Joseph S |last6=Hatfield |first6=Robert G |date=10 December 2018 |title=Absence of the West Antarctic ice sheet during the last interglaciation |url=https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm18/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/421418 |conference=American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting}}</ref><ref name="Lau2023">{{Cite journal |last1=Lau |first1=Sally C. Y. |last2=Wilson |first2=Nerida G. |last3=Golledge |first3=Nicholas R. |last4=Naish |first4=Tim R. |last5=Watts |first5=Phillip C. |last6=Silva |first6=Catarina N. S. |last7=Cooke |first7=Ira R. |last8=Allcock |first8=A. Louise |last9=Mark |first9=Felix C. |last10=Linse |first10=Katrin |date=21 December 2023 |title=Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial |journal=Science |language=en |volume=382 |issue=6677 |pages=1384–1389 |doi=10.1126/science.ade0664|pmid=38127761 |bibcode=2023Sci...382.1384L |s2cid=266436146 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=AHMED |first=Issam |title=Antarctic octopus DNA reveals ice sheet collapse closer than thought |url=https://phys.org/news/2023-12-antarctic-octopus-dna-reveals-ice.html |access-date=23 December 2023 |website=phys.org |language=en}}</ref><ref name="Naughten2023">{{cite journal |last1=A. Naughten |first1=Kaitlin |last2=R. Holland |first2=Paul |last3=De Rydt |first3=Jan|title=Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century |journal=Nature Climate Change |date=23 October 2023 |volume=13 |issue=11 |pages=1222–1228 |doi=10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x |s2cid=264476246 |doi-access=free|bibcode=2023NatCC..13.1222N }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Poynting |first1=Mark |title=Sea-level rise: West Antarctic ice shelf melt 'unavoidable' |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67171231 |access-date=26 October 2023 |agency=BBC |date=24 October 2023}}</ref>

===Nature and wildlife===
<!-- Warning: Do not change the above title without also changing places where the gallery below is transcluded (this article summary, and effects of climate change article). -->
{{Further|Effects of climate change on oceans|Effects of climate change on ecosystems}}
Recent warming has driven many terrestrial and freshwater species poleward and towards higher [[altitudes]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018|p=218}}.</ref> Higher atmospheric {{CO2}} levels and an extended growing season have resulted in global greening. However, heatwaves and drought have reduced [[ecosystem]] productivity in some regions. The future balance of these opposing effects is unclear.{{Sfn|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|p=133}} Climate change has contributed to the expansion of drier climate zones, such as the [[Desertification|expansion of deserts]] in the [[subtropics]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=7}}; {{harvnb|Zeng|Yoon|2009}}.</ref> The size and speed of global warming is making [[Ecological threshold|abrupt changes in ecosystems]] more likely.{{Sfn|Turner|Calder|Cumming|Hughes|2020|p=1}} Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the [[extinction]] of many species.{{Sfn|Urban|2015}}

The oceans have heated more slowly than the land, but plants and animals in the ocean have migrated towards the colder poles faster than species on land.<ref>{{harvnb|Poloczanska|Brown|Sydeman|Kiessling|2013}}; {{harvnb|Lenoir|Bertrand|Comte|Bourgeaud|2020}}</ref> Just as on land, [[Marine_heatwave|heat waves in the ocean]] occur more frequently due to climate change, harming a wide range of organisms such as corals, [[kelp]], and [[seabirds]].<ref>{{harvnb|Smale|Wernberg|Oliver|Thomsen|2019}}</ref> Ocean acidification makes it harder for [[Marine biogenic calcification|marine calcifying organisms]] such as [[mussel]]s, [[barnacle]]s and corals to [[Biomineralization|produce shells and skeletons]]; and heatwaves have [[Coral bleaching|bleached coral reefs]].{{Sfn|IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=13}} [[Harmful algal blooms]] enhanced by climate change and [[eutrophication]] lower oxygen levels, disrupt [[food web]]s and cause great loss of marine life.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=510}}</ref> Coastal ecosystems are under particular stress. Almost half of global wetlands have disappeared due to climate change and other human impacts.{{Sfn|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=451}}

{| class="center toccolours"
|+ '''Climate change impacts on the environment'''
|<gallery mode="packed" heights="120" style="line-height:120%">
File:Bleachedcoral.jpg|alt=Underwater photograph of branching coral that is bleached white|[[Ecological collapse]]. [[Coral bleaching]] from [[Marine heatwave|thermal stress]] has damaged the [[Great Barrier Reef]] and threatens [[coral reef]]s worldwide.<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://sos.noaa.gov/datasets/coral-reef-risk-outlook/ |title=Coral Reef Risk Outlook |date=2 January 2012 |access-date=4 April 2020 |publisher=[[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]] |quote=At present, local human activities, coupled with past thermal stress, threaten an estimated 75 percent of the world's reefs. By 2030, estimates predict more than 90% of the world's reefs will be threatened by local human activities, warming, and acidification, with nearly 60% facing high, very high, or critical threat levels.}}</ref>
File:Orroral Valley Fire viewed from Tuggeranong January 2020.jpg|alt=Photograph of evening in a valley settlement. The skyline in the hills beyond is lit up red from the fires.|[[Extreme weather]]. Drought and high temperatures worsened the [[2019–20 Australian bushfire season#Climate change|2020 bushfires in Australia]].<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 7 January|2020}}.</ref>
File:National Park Service Thawing permafrost (27759123542).jpg|alt=The green landscape is interrupted by a huge muddy scar where the ground has subsided.|[[Climate change in the Arctic|Arctic warming]]. [[Permafrost#Impacts of climate change|Permafrost thaws]] undermine infrastructure and [[Arctic methane emissions|release methane]], a greenhouse gas.<ref name="Turetsky 2019"/>
File:Endangered arctic - starving polar bear edit.jpg|alt=An emaciated polar bear stands atop the remains of a melting ice floe.|[[Habitat destruction]]. Many arctic animals rely on sea ice, which has been disappearing in a warming Arctic.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch28|2014|p=1596|ps=: "Within 50 to 70 years, loss of hunting habitats may lead to elimination of polar bears from seasonally ice-covered areas, where two-thirds of their world population currently live."}}</ref>
File:Mountain Pine Beetle damage in the Fraser Experimental Forest 2007.jpg|alt=Photograph of a large area of forest. The green trees are interspersed with large patches of damaged or dead trees turning purple-brown and light red.|[[Climate change and invasive species|Pest propagation]]. Mild winters allow more [[mountain pine beetle|pine beetles]] to survive to kill large swaths of forest.<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://www.nps.gov/romo/learn/nature/climatechange.htm |title=What a changing climate means for Rocky Mountain National Park |publisher=[[National Park Service]] |access-date=9 April 2020}}</ref>
</gallery>
|}

=== Humans ===
<!-- Warning: Do not change the above title without also changing places where the gallery below is transcluded (this article summary, and effects of climate change article). -->
{{Main|Effects of climate change}}
[[File:20211109 Frequency of extreme weather for different degrees of global warming - bar chart IPCC AR6 WG1 SPM.svg|thumb|upright=1.35 |Extreme weather will be progressively more common as the Earth warms.<ref name=IPCC6AR_ExtremeEvents>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021|loc=Fig. SPM.6
|page=SPM-23}}</ref>]]
The effects of climate change are impacting humans everywhere in the world.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Lenton |first1=Timothy M. |last2=Xu |first2=Chi |last3=Abrams |first3=Jesse F. |last4=Ghadiali |first4=Ashish |last5=Loriani |first5=Sina |last6=Sakschewski |first6=Boris |last7=Zimm |first7=Caroline |last8=Ebi |first8=Kristie L. |last9=Dunn |first9=Robert R. |last10=Svenning |first10=Jens-Christian |last11=Scheffer |first11=Marten |title=Quantifying the human cost of global warming |journal=[[Nature Sustainability]] |date=2023 |volume=6 |issue=10 |pages=1237–1247 |doi=10.1038/s41893-023-01132-6 |doi-access=free|bibcode=2023NatSu...6.1237L |hdl=10871/132650 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> Impacts can be observed on all continents and ocean regions,<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch18|2014|pp=983, 1008}}</ref> with low-latitude, [[Developing country|less developed areas]] facing the greatest risk.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch19|2014|p=1077}}.</ref> Continued warming has potentially "severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts" for people and ecosystems.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=SPM 2|p=8}}</ref> The risks are unevenly distributed, but are generally greater for disadvantaged people in developing and developed countries.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=SPM 2.3|p=13}}</ref>

==== Food and health ====
{{Main|Effects of climate change on agriculture#Global food security and undernutrition|Effects of climate change on human health}}
The World Health Organization (WHO) calls climate change the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century.<ref>{{harvnb|WHO, Nov|2015}}</ref> Extreme weather leads to injury and loss of life.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch11|2014|pp=720–723}}</ref> Various [[infectious diseases]] are more easily transmitted in a warmer climate, such as [[dengue fever]] and [[malaria]].{{Sfn|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|pp=1836, 1848}} [[Crop failure]]s can lead to food shortages and [[malnutrition]], particularly effecting [[Undernutrition in children|children]].<ref>{{harvnb|Costello|Abbas|Allen|Ball|2009}}; {{harvnb|Watts|Adger|Agnolucci|Blackstock|2015}}; {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch11|2014|p=713}}</ref> Both children and older people are vulnerable to extreme heat.{{Sfn|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|pp=1841, 1847}} The WHO has estimated that between 2030 and 2050, climate change would cause around 250,000 additional deaths per year. They assessed deaths from heat exposure in elderly people, increases in [[diarrhea]], malaria, dengue, [[coastal flooding]], and childhood malnutrition.<ref>{{harvnb|WHO|2014}}: "Under a base case socioeconomic scenario, we estimate approximately 250 000 additional deaths due to climate change per year between 2030 and 2050. These numbers do not represent a prediction of the overall impacts of climate change on health, since we could not quantify several important causal pathways."</ref> By 2100, 50% to 75% of the global population may face climate conditions that are life-threatening due to combined effects of extreme heat and humidity.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022|p=988}}</ref>

Climate change is affecting [[food security]]. It has caused reduction in global yields of maize, wheat, and soybeans between 1981 and 2010.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|p=451}}.</ref> Future warming could further reduce global yields of major crops.<ref>{{harvnb|Zhao|Liu|Piao|Wang|2017}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|p=439}}</ref> [[crop productivity|Crop production]] will probably be negatively affected in low-latitude countries, while effects at northern latitudes may be positive or negative.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch7|2014|p=488}}</ref> Up to an additional 183 million people worldwide, particularly those with lower incomes, are at risk of [[hunger]] as a consequence of these impacts.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|p=462}}</ref> Climate change also impacts fish populations. Globally, less will be available to be fished.{{sfn|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=503}} Regions dependent on glacier water, regions that are already dry, and small islands have a higher risk of water stress due to climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|Holding|Allen|Foster|Hsieh|2016}}; {{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch3|2014|pp=232–233}}.</ref>

==== Livelihoods and inequality ====
{{Further|Economic analysis of climate change|Climate security}}
Economic damages due to climate change may be severe and there is a chance of disastrous consequences.<ref>{{harvnb|DeFries|Edenhofer|Halliday|Heal|2019|p=3}}; {{harvnb|Krogstrup|Oman|2019|p=10}}.</ref> Severe impacts are expected in South-East Asia and [[Climate change in Africa|sub-Saharan Africa]], where most of the local inhabitants are dependent upon natural and agricultural resources.<ref name="FAO-2021">{{Cite book |url=https://doi.org/10.4060/cb7431en |title=Women's leadership and gender equality in climate action and disaster risk reduction in Africa − A call for action |publisher=[[Food and Agriculture Organization|FAO]] & The African Risk Capacity (ARC) Group |year=2021 |isbn=978-92-5-135234-2 |location=Accra |doi=10.4060/cb7431en |s2cid=243488592 }}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch13|2014|pp=796–797}}</ref> [[Heat stress]] can prevent outdoor labourers from working. If warming reaches 4&nbsp;°C then labour capacity in those regions could be reduced by 30 to 50%.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022|p=725}}</ref> The [[World Bank]] estimates that between 2016 and 2030, climate change could drive over 120 million people into extreme poverty without adaptation.{{Sfn|Hallegatte|Bangalore|Bonzanigo|Fay|2016|p=12}}

Inequalities based on wealth and social status have worsened due to climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch13|2014|p=796}}.</ref> Major difficulties in mitigating, adapting, and recovering to climate shocks are faced by marginalised people who have less control over resources.<ref name="Grabe-2014">Grabe, Grose and Dutt, 2014; FAO, 2011; FAO, 2021a; Fisher and Carr, 2015; IPCC, 2014; Resurrección et al., 2019; UNDRR, 2019; Yeboah et al., 2019.</ref><ref name="FAO-2021" /> [[Indigenous people]], who are subsistent on their land and ecosystems, will face endangerment to their wellness and lifestyles due to climate change.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Climate Change {{!}} United Nations For Indigenous Peoples |url=https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/climate-change.html |access-date=29 April 2022 |website=United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs}}</ref> An expert elicitation concluded that the role of climate change in [[armed conflict]] has been small compared to factors such as socio-economic inequality and state capabilities.{{Sfn|Mach|Kraan|Adger|Buhaug|2019}}

While women are not inherently more at risk from climate change and shocks, limits on women's resources and discriminatory gender norms constrain their adaptive capacity and resilience.<ref name=":0">{{Cite book |url=https://doi.org/10.4060/cc5060en |title=The status of women in agrifood systems - Overview |publisher=FAO |year=2023 |location=Rome |doi=10.4060/cc5060en |s2cid=258145984 |language=EN}}</ref> For example, women's work burdens, including hours worked in agriculture, tend to decline less than men's during climate shocks such as heat stress.<ref name=":0" />

====Climate migration====
{{main|Climate migration}}
Low-lying islands and coastal communities are threatened by sea level rise, which makes [[urban flooding]] more common. Sometimes, land is permanently lost to the sea.{{Sfn|IPCC SROCC Ch4|2019|p=328}} This could lead to [[statelessness]] for people in island nations, such as the [[Maldives]] and [[Tuvalu]].<ref>{{harvnb|UNHCR|2011|p=3}}.</ref> In some regions, the rise in temperature and humidity may be too severe for humans to adapt to.{{sfn|Matthews|2018|p=399}} With worst-case climate change, models project that almost one-third of humanity might live in Sahara-like uninhabitable and extremely hot climates.<ref>{{harvnb|Balsari|Dresser|Leaning|2020}}</ref>

These factors can drive [[Climate migrant|climate]] or [[Environmental migrant|environmental migration]], within and between countries.<ref name="auto3"/> More people are expected to be displaced because of sea level rise, extreme weather and conflict from increased competition over natural resources. Climate change may also increase vulnerability, leading to "trapped populations" who are not able to move due to a lack of resources.<ref>{{harvnb|Flavell|2014|p=38}}; {{harvnb|Kaczan|Orgill-Meyer|2020}}</ref>

{| class="center toccolours"
|+ '''Climate change impacts on people'''
|<gallery mode="packed" heights="120" style="line-height:120%">
File:Village Telly in Mali.jpg|Environmental migration. Sparser rainfall leads to [[desertification]] that harms agriculture and can displace populations. Shown: Telly, Mali (2008).<ref>{{harvnb|Serdeczny|Adams|Baarsch|Coumou|2016}}.</ref>
File:Corn shows the affect of drought.jpg|[[Effects of climate change on agriculture|Agricultural changes]]. Droughts, rising temperatures, and extreme weather negatively impact agriculture. Shown: Texas, US (2013).<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|pp=439, 464}}.</ref>
File:Acqua alta in Piazza San Marco-original.jpg|[[Tidal flooding]]. Sea-level rise increases flooding in low-lying coastal regions. Shown: [[Venice#Flooding|Venice, Italy]] (2004).<ref name="NOAAnuisance">{{cite web|url=http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/nuisance-flooding.html |title=What is nuisance flooding? |author=[[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]] |access-date=April 8, 2020}}</ref>
File:US Navy 071120-M-8966H-005 An aerial view over southern Bangladesh reveals extensive flooding as a result of Cyclone Sidr.jpg|[[Tropical cyclones and climate change|Storm intensification]]. Bangladesh after [[Cyclone Sidr]] (2007) is an example of catastrophic flooding from increased rainfall.<ref>{{harvnb|Kabir|Khan|Ball|Caldwell|2016}}.</ref>
File:Argentina geos5 202211.jpg|Heat wave intensification. Events like the [[2022 Southern Cone heat wave]] are becoming more common.<ref>{{harvnb|Van Oldenborgh|Philip|Kew|Vautard|2019}}.</ref>
</gallery>
|}

== Reducing and recapturing emissions ==
{{main|Climate change mitigation}}
[[File:Greenhouse gas emission scenarios 01.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|right|Global greenhouse gas emission scenarios, based on policies and pledges as of November 2021]]
Climate change can be mitigated by reducing the rate at which greenhouse gases are emitted into the atmosphere, and by increasing the rate at which carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014|p=125}}.</ref> In order to limit global warming to less than 1.5&nbsp;°C global greenhouse gas emissions needs to be [[Carbon neutrality|net-zero]] by 2050, or by 2070 with a 2&nbsp;°C target.<ref name="IPCC-2018 p12"/> This requires far-reaching, systemic changes on an unprecedented scale in energy, land, cities, transport, buildings, and industry.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=15}}</ref>

The [[United Nations Environment Programme]] estimates that countries need to triple their [[Nationally determined contribution|pledges under the Paris Agreement]] within the next decade to limit global warming to 2&nbsp;°C. An even greater level of reduction is required to meet the 1.5&nbsp;°C goal.<ref>{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|p=XX}}</ref> With pledges made under the Paris Agreement as of October 2021, global warming would still have a 66% chance of reaching about 2.7&nbsp;°C (range: 2.2–3.2&nbsp;°C) by the end of the century.<ref name="UNEP2021" /> Globally, limiting warming to 2&nbsp;°C may result in higher economic benefits than economic costs.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3|2022|p=300|ps=: The global benefits of pathways limiting warming to 2°C (>67%) outweigh global mitigation costs over the 21st century, if aggregated economic impacts of climate change are at the moderate to high end of the assessed range, and a weight consistent with economic theory is given to economic impacts over the long term. This holds true even without accounting for benefits in other sustainable development dimensions or nonmarket damages from climate change (medium confidence).}}</ref>

Although there is no single pathway to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2&nbsp;°C,<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=109}}.</ref> most scenarios and strategies see a major increase in the use of renewable energy in combination with increased energy efficiency measures to generate the needed greenhouse gas reductions.<ref name="Teske, ed. 2019 xxiii">{{harvnb|Teske, ed.|2019|p=xxiii}}.</ref> To reduce pressures on ecosystems and enhance their carbon sequestration capabilities, changes would also be necessary in agriculture and forestry,<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, 8 August|2019}}</ref> such as preventing [[deforestation]] and restoring natural ecosystems by [[reforestation]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018|p=266|ps=: Where reforestation is the restoration of natural ecosystems, it benefits both carbon sequestration and conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services.}}</ref>

Other approaches to mitigating climate change have a higher level of risk. Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5&nbsp;°C typically project the large-scale use of [[carbon dioxide removal|carbon dioxide removal methods]] over the 21st century.<ref>{{harvnb|Bui|Adjiman|Bardow|Anthony|2018|p=1068}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=17}}</ref> There are concerns, though, about over-reliance on these technologies, and environmental impacts.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018|p=34}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=17}}</ref> [[Solar radiation modification]] (SRM) is also a possible supplement to deep reductions in emissions. However, SRM raises significant ethical and legal concerns, and the risks are imperfectly understood.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=347–352}}</ref>

=== Clean energy ===
{{Main|Sustainable energy|Sustainable transport}}
[[File:Global Energy Consumption.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Coal, oil, and natural gas remain the primary [[World energy consumption|global energy]] sources even as [[Renewable energy|renewables]] have begun rapidly increasing.<ref>{{harvnb|Friedlingstein|Jones|O'Sullivan|Andrew|2019}}</ref>]]
[[File:Lisberg Burg Windräder Solar power PC313027.jpg|thumb |upright=1.35 |Wind and solar power, Germany]]
Renewable energy is key to limiting climate change.<ref name="United Nations Environment Programme 2019 46" /> For decades, fossil fuels have accounted for roughly 80% of the world's energy use.<ref>{{harvnb|IEA World Energy Outlook 2023|pp=18}}</ref> The remaining share has been split between nuclear power and renewables (including [[hydropower]], [[bioenergy]], wind and solar power and [[geothermal energy]]).<ref>{{harvnb|REN21|2020|p=32|loc=Fig.1}}.</ref> Fossil fuel use is expected to peak in absolute terms prior to 2030 and then to decline, with coal use experiencing the sharpest reductions.<ref>{{harvnb|IEA World Energy Outlook 2023|pp=18,26}}</ref> Renewables represented 75% of all new electricity generation installed in 2019, nearly all solar and wind.<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 6 April|2020}}.</ref> Other forms of clean energy, such as nuclear and hydropower, currently have a larger share of the energy supply. However, their future growth forecasts appear limited in comparison.<ref>{{harvnb|IEA|2021|p=57, Fig 2.5}}; {{harvnb|Teske|Pregger|Naegler|Simon|2019|p=180, Table 8.1}}</ref>

While [[Photovoltaic system|solar panels]] and onshore wind are now among the cheapest forms of adding new power generation capacity in many locations,<ref>{{harvnb|Our World in Data-Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?}}; {{harvnb| IEA – Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2020}}</ref> green energy policies are needed to achieve a rapid transition from fossil fuels to renewables.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/04/04/ipcc-ar6-wgiii-pressrelease/ |title=IPCC Working Group III report: Mitigation of Climate Change |date=4 April 2022 |access-date=19 January 2024 |publisher=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}}</ref> To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, renewable energy would become the dominant form of electricity generation, rising to 85% or more by 2050 in some scenarios. Investment in coal would be eliminated and coal use nearly phased out by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|loc=Figure 2.15|p=131}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Teske|2019|pp=409–410}}.</ref>

Electricity generated from renewable sources would also need to become the main energy source for heating and transport.<ref>{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|loc=Table ES.3|p=XXIII}}; {{harvnb|Teske, ed.|2019|p=xxvii, Fig.5}}.</ref> Transport can switch away from [[internal combustion engine]] vehicles and towards [[electric vehicle]]s, public transit, and [[Active mobility|active transport]] (cycling and walking).<ref name="IPCC-2018 p142">{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|pp=142–144}}; {{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|loc=Table ES.3 & p. 49}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2016 |title=Transport emissions |url=https://ec.europa.eu/clima/eu-action/transport-emissions_en |access-date=2 January 2022 |website=Climate action |publisher=[[European Commission]] |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211010225533/https://ec.europa.eu/clima/eu-action/transport-emissions_en |archive-date=10 October 2021 |url-status=live}}</ref> For shipping and flying, low-carbon fuels would reduce emissions.<ref name="IPCC-2018 p142" /> Heating could be increasingly decarbonised with technologies like [[heat pump]]s.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch9|2014|p=697}}; {{harvnb|NREL|2017|pp=vi, 12}}</ref>

There are obstacles to the continued rapid growth of clean energy, including renewables. For wind and solar, there are environmental and land use concerns for new projects.<ref>{{harvnb|Berrill|Arvesen|Scholz|Gils|2016}}.</ref> Wind and solar also produce energy [[Variable renewable energy|intermittently and with seasonal variability]]. Traditionally, [[Pumped-storage hydroelectricity|hydro dams with reservoirs]] and conventional power plants have been used when variable energy production is low. Going forward, [[Battery storage power station|battery storage]] can be expanded, [[Demand response|energy demand and supply]] can be matched, and long-distance [[Electric power transmission|transmission]] can smooth variability of renewable outputs.<ref name="United Nations Environment Programme 2019 46">{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|p=46}}; {{harvnb|Vox, 20 September|2019}}; {{cite journal |title=The Role of Firm Low-Carbon Electricity Resources in Deep Decarbonization of Power Generation |year=2018 |last1=Sepulveda |first1=Nestor A. |last2=Jenkins |first2=Jesse D. |last3=De Sisternes |first3=Fernando J. |last4=Lester |first4=Richard K. |journal=[[Joule (journal)|Joule]] |volume=2 |issue=11 |pages=2403–2420 |doi=10.1016/j.joule.2018.08.006 |doi-access=free}}</ref> Bioenergy is often not carbon-neutral and may have negative consequences for food security.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=324–325}}.</ref> The growth of nuclear power is constrained by controversy around [[radioactive waste]], [[nuclear proliferation|nuclear weapon proliferation]], and [[Nuclear accident|accidents]].<ref>{{Citec|last1=Gill |first1=Matthew |last2=Livens |first2=Francis |last3=Peakman |first3=Aiden |in=Letcher |year=2020 |pages=147–149 |chapter=Nuclear Fission}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Horvath |first1=Akos |last2=Rachlew |first2=Elisabeth |date=January 2016 |title=Nuclear power in the 21st century: Challenges and possibilities |journal=[[Ambio]] |volume=45 |issue=Suppl 1 |pages=S38–49 |doi=10.1007/s13280-015-0732-y |issn=1654-7209 |pmc=4678124 |pmid=26667059|bibcode=2016Ambio..45S..38H }}</ref> Hydropower growth is limited by the fact that the best sites have been developed, and new projects are confronting increased social and environmental concerns.<ref>{{cite web |title=Hydropower |url=https://www.iea.org/reports/hydropower |website=iea.org |publisher=[[International Energy Agency]] |access-date=12 October 2020 |quote=Hydropower generation is estimated to have increased by over 2% in 2019 owing to continued recovery from drought in Latin America as well as strong capacity expansion and good water availability in China (...) capacity expansion has been losing speed. This downward trend is expected to continue, due mainly to less large-project development in China and Brazil, where concerns over social and environmental impacts have restricted projects.}}</ref>

[[Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of energy sources|Low-carbon energy]] improves human health by minimising climate change as well as reducing air pollution deaths,<ref>{{harvnb|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|p=1854}}; {{harvnb|WHO|2018|p=27}}</ref> which were estimated at 7 million annually in 2016.<ref>{{harvnb|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|p=1837}}; {{harvnb|WHO|2016}}</ref> Meeting the Paris Agreement goals that limit warming to a 2&nbsp;°C increase could save about a million of those lives per year by 2050, whereas limiting global warming to 1.5&nbsp;°C could save millions and simultaneously increase [[energy security]] and reduce poverty.<ref>{{harvnb|WHO|2018|p=27}}; {{harvnb|Vandyck|Keramidas|Kitous|Spadaro|2018}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018|p=97}}: "Limiting warming to 1.5&nbsp;°C can be achieved synergistically with poverty alleviation and improved energy security and can provide large public health benefits through improved air quality, preventing millions of premature deaths. However, specific mitigation measures, such as bioenergy, may result in trade-offs that require consideration."</ref> Improving air quality also has economic benefits which may be larger than mitigation costs.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3|2022|p=300}}</ref>

=== Energy conservation ===
{{Main|Efficient energy use|Energy conservation}}
Reducing energy demand is another major aspect of reducing emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=97}}</ref> If less energy is needed, there is more flexibility for clean energy development. It also makes it easier to manage the electricity grid, and minimises [[emission intensity|carbon-intensive]] infrastructure development.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|p=29}}; {{harvnb|IEA|2020b}}</ref> Major increases in energy efficiency investment will be required to achieve climate goals, comparable to the level of investment in renewable energy.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=155|loc=Fig. 2.27}}</ref> Several [[COVID-19 pandemic|COVID-19]] related changes in energy use patterns, energy efficiency investments, and funding have made forecasts for this decade more difficult and uncertain.<ref>{{harvnb|IEA|2020b}}</ref>

Strategies to reduce energy demand vary by sector. In the transport sector, passengers and freight can switch to more efficient travel modes, such as buses and trains, or use electric vehicles.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=142}}</ref> Industrial strategies to reduce energy demand include improving heating systems and motors, designing less energy-intensive products, and increasing product lifetimes.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|pp=138–140}}</ref> In the building sector the focus is on better design of new buildings, and higher levels of energy efficiency in retrofitting.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|pp=141–142}}</ref> The use of technologies like heat pumps can also increase building energy efficiency.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch9|2014|pp=686–694}}.</ref>

=== Agriculture and industry ===
{{See also|Sustainable agriculture|Green industrial policy}}
[[File:Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Taking into account direct and indirect emissions, industry is the sector with the highest share of global emissions. Data as of 2019 from the IPCC.]] Agriculture and forestry face a triple challenge of limiting greenhouse gas emissions, preventing the further conversion of forests to agricultural land, and meeting increases in world food demand.<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, December|2019|p=1}}</ref> A set of actions could reduce agriculture and forestry-based emissions by two thirds from 2010 levels. These include reducing growth in demand for food and other agricultural products, increasing land productivity, protecting and restoring forests, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production.<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, December|2019|pp=1, 3}}</ref>

On the demand side, a key component of reducing emissions is shifting people towards [[plant-based diets]].<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019|p=22|loc=B.6.2}}</ref> Eliminating the production of livestock for [[Environmental impact of meat production|meat and dairy]] would eliminate about 3/4ths of all emissions from agriculture and other land use.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|pp=487,488|loc=FIGURE 5.12}} Humans on a vegan exclusive diet would save about 7.9 Gt{{CO2}} equivalent per year by 2050 {{harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021|p=51}} Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use used an average of 12 Gt{{CO2}} per year between 2007 and 2016 (23% of total anthropogenic emissions).</ref> Livestock also occupy 37% of ice-free land area on Earth and consume feed from the 12% of land area used for crops, driving deforestation and land degradation.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|pp=82, 162|loc=FIGURE 1.1}}</ref>

Steel and cement production are responsible for about 13% of industrial {{CO2}} emissions. In these industries, carbon-intensive materials such as coke and lime play an integral role in the production, so that reducing {{CO2}} emissions requires research into alternative chemistries.<ref>{{cite web|title=Low and zero emissions in the steel and cement industries|url=https://www.oecd.org/greengrowth/GGSD2019_IssuePaper_CementSteel.pdf|pages=11, 19–22}}</ref>

=== Carbon sequestration ===
{{Main|Carbon dioxide removal|Carbon sequestration}}
[[File:Carbon Dioxide Partitioning.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Most {{CO2}} emissions have been absorbed by [[carbon sink]]s, including plant growth, soil uptake, and ocean uptake ([[Global Carbon Project#Global Carbon Budget|2020 Global Carbon Budget]]).]]
Natural carbon sinks can be enhanced to sequester significantly larger amounts of {{CO2}} beyond naturally occurring levels.<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, 8 August|2019}}: {{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|pp=189–193}}.</ref> Reforestation and [[afforestation]] (planting forests where there were none before) are among the most mature sequestration techniques, although the latter raises food security concerns.<ref>{{harvnb|Kreidenweis|Humpenöder|Stevanović|Bodirsky|2016}}</ref> Farmers can promote sequestration of [[Carbon farming|carbon in soils]] through practices such as use of winter [[cover crops]], reducing the intensity and frequency of [[tillage]], and using compost and manure as soil amendments.<ref>{{harvnb|National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine|2019|pp=95–102}}</ref> Forest and landscape restoration yields many benefits for the climate, including greenhouse gas emissions sequestration and reduction.<ref name="Duchelle-2022" /> Restoration/recreation of coastal wetlands, [[Prairie restoration|prairie plots]] and [[seagrass meadow]]s increases the uptake of carbon into organic matter.<ref>{{harvnb|National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine|2019|pp=45–54}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Nelson |first1=J. D. J. |last2=Schoenau |first2=J. J. |last3=Malhi |first3=S. S. |date=1 October 2008 |title=Soil organic carbon changes and distribution in cultivated and restored grassland soils in Saskatchewan |url=https://doi.org/10.1007/s10705-008-9175-1 |journal=Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems |language=en |volume=82 |issue=2 |pages=137–148 |doi=10.1007/s10705-008-9175-1 |bibcode=2008NCyAg..82..137N |s2cid=24021984 |issn=1573-0867}}</ref> When carbon is sequestered in soils and in organic matter such as trees, there is a risk of the carbon being re-released into the atmosphere later through changes in land use, fire, or other changes in ecosystems.<ref>{{harvnb|Ruseva|Hedrick|Marland|Tovar|2020}}</ref>

Where energy production or {{CO2}}-intensive [[heavy industry|heavy industries]] continue to produce waste {{CO2}}, the gas can be captured and stored instead of released to the atmosphere. Although its current use is limited in scale and expensive,<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=326–327}}; {{harvnb|Bednar|Obersteiner|Wagner|2019}}; {{harvnb|European Commission, 28 November|2018|p=188}}</ref> [[carbon capture and storage]] (CCS) may be able to play a significant role in limiting {{CO2}} emissions by mid-century.{{Sfn|Bui|Adjiman|Bardow|Anthony|2018|p=1068}} This technique, in combination with bioenergy ([[Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage|BECCS]]) can result in net negative emissions as {{CO2}} is drawn from the atmosphere.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|p=125}}; {{harvnb|Bednar|Obersteiner|Wagner|2019}}.</ref> It remains highly uncertain whether carbon dioxide removal techniques will be able to play a large role in limiting warming to 1.5&nbsp;°C. Policy decisions that rely on carbon dioxide removal increase the risk of global warming rising beyond international goals.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018|p=34}}</ref>

== Adaptation ==
{{main|Climate change adaptation}}
Adaptation is "the process of adjustment to current or expected changes in climate and its effects".<ref name="IPCC-2022">IPCC, 2022: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf Summary for Policymakers] [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Tignor, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem (eds.)]. In: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/ Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, pp. 3–33, {{doi|10.1017/9781009325844.001}}.</ref>{{rp|5}} Without additional mitigation, adaptation cannot avert the risk of "severe, widespread and irreversible" impacts.{{sfn|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|p=17}} More severe climate change requires more transformative adaptation, which can be prohibitively expensive.{{sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=396–397}} The [[Adaptive capacity|capacity and potential for humans to adapt]] is unevenly distributed across different regions and populations, and developing countries generally have less.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch19|2007|p=796}}.</ref> The first two decades of the 21st century saw an increase in adaptive capacity in most low- and middle-income countries with improved access to basic [[sanitation]] and electricity, but progress is slow. Many countries have implemented adaptation policies. However, there is a considerable gap between necessary and available finance.{{sfn|UNEP|2018|pp=xii–xiii}}

Adaptation to sea level rise consists of avoiding at-risk areas, learning to live with increased flooding, and building [[Flood control|flood controls]]. If that fails, [[managed retreat]] may be needed.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Stephens |first1=Scott A. |last2=Bell |first2=Robert G. |last3=Lawrence |first3=Judy |date=2018 |title=Developing signals to trigger adaptation to sea-level rise |journal=[[Environmental Research Letters]] |volume=13 |issue=10 |at=104004 |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/aadf96 |bibcode=2018ERL....13j4004S |issn=1748-9326 |doi-access=free}}</ref> There are economic barriers for tackling dangerous heat impact. Avoiding strenuous work or having [[air conditioning]] is not possible for everybody.{{sfn|Matthews|2018|p=402}} In agriculture, adaptation options include a switch to more sustainable diets, diversification, erosion control, and genetic improvements for increased tolerance to a changing climate.{{sfn|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|p=439}} Insurance allows for risk-sharing, but is often difficult to get for people on lower incomes.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Surminski |first1=Swenja |last2=Bouwer |first2=Laurens M. |last3=Linnerooth-Bayer |first3=Joanne |date=2016 |title=How insurance can support climate resilience |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2979 |journal=[[Nature Climate Change]] |volume=6 |issue=4 |pages=333–334 |doi=10.1038/nclimate2979 |bibcode=2016NatCC...6..333S |issn=1758-6798}}</ref> Education, migration and [[early warning system]]s can reduce climate vulnerability.{{sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=336–337}} Planting mangroves or encouraging other coastal vegetation can buffer storms.<ref>{{Cite web |last= |first= |title=Mangroves against the storm |url=https://social.shorthand.com/IUCN_forests/nCec1jyqvn/mangroves-against-the-storm.html |access-date=20 January 2023 |website=Shorthand |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=How marsh grass could help protect us from climate change |url=https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/10/how-marsh-grass-protects-shorelines/ |access-date=20 January 2023 |website=World Economic Forum |date=24 October 2021 |language=en}}</ref>

Ecosystems adapt to climate change, a process that can be supported by human intervention. By increasing connectivity between ecosystems, species can migrate to more favourable climate conditions. Species can also be [[Assisted migration|introduced to areas acquiring a favorable climate]]. Protection and restoration of natural and semi-natural areas helps build resilience, making it easier for ecosystems to adapt. Many of the actions that promote adaptation in ecosystems, also help humans adapt via [[ecosystem-based adaptation]]. For instance, restoration of [[Fire regime|natural fire regimes]] makes catastrophic fires less likely, and reduces human exposure. Giving rivers more space allows for more water storage in the natural system, reducing flood risk. Restored forest acts as a carbon sink, but planting trees in unsuitable regions can exacerbate climate impacts.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Morecroft |first1=Michael D. |last2=Duffield |first2=Simon |last3=Harley |first3=Mike |last4=Pearce-Higgins |first4=James W. |last5=Stevens |first5=Nicola |last6=Watts |first6=Olly |last7=Whitaker |first7=Jeanette |display-authors=4 |date=2019 |title=Measuring the success of climate change adaptation and mitigation in terrestrial ecosystems |journal=[[Science (journal)|Science]] |volume=366 |issue=6471 |page=eaaw9256 |doi=10.1126/science.aaw9256 |issn=0036-8075 |pmid=31831643 |s2cid=209339286 |doi-access=free}}</ref>

There are [[Synergy|synergies]] but also trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Berry |first1=Pam M. |last2=Brown |first2=Sally |last3=Chen |first3=Minpeng |last4=Kontogianni |first4=Areti |last5=Rowlands |first5=Olwen |last6=Simpson |first6=Gillian |last7=Skourtos |first7=Michalis |display-authors=4 |date=2015 |title=Cross-sectoral interactions of adaptation and mitigation measures |url=https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1214-0 |journal=[[Climatic Change (journal)|Climate Change]] |volume=128 |issue=3 |pages=381–393 |bibcode=2015ClCh..128..381B |doi=10.1007/s10584-014-1214-0 |issn=1573-1480 |s2cid=153904466|hdl=10.1007/s10584-014-1214-0 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> An example for synergy is increased food productivity, which has large benefits for both adaptation and mitigation.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|p=54}}.</ref> An example of a trade-off is that increased use of air conditioning allows people to better cope with heat, but increases energy demand. Another trade-off example is that more compact [[Urban planning|urban development]] may reduce emissions from transport and construction, but may also increase the [[urban heat island]] effect, exposing people to heat-related health risks.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Sharifi |first=Ayyoob |date=2020 |title=Trade-offs and conflicts between urban climate change mitigation and adaptation measures: A literature review |journal=Journal of Cleaner Production |volume=276 |page=122813 |doi=10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122813 |s2cid=225638176 |issn=0959-6526 |url=http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652620328584}}</ref>

{| class="center toccolours"
|+ '''Examples of adaptation methods'''
|<gallery mode="packed" heights="120" style="line-height:120%">
File:FrontLines-EGAT 2011 Environment Photo Contest Top Entry (5842818280).jpg|[[Mangrove]] planting and other [[habitat conservation]] can reduce [[coastal flooding]].
File:Seawallventnor.jpg|[[Seawall]]s to protect against [[storm surge]] worsened by [[sea level rise]]
File:20080708 Chicago City Hall Green Roof Edit1.jpg|[[Green roof]]s to provide cooling in cities
File:2013.02-402-294a_Pearl_millet,breeding,selfing_ICRISAT,Patancheru(Hyderabad,Andhra_Pradesh),IN_wed20feb2013.jpg|[[Selective breeding]] for [[Xerophyte|drought-resistant crops]]
</gallery>
|}

== Policies and politics ==
{{See also|Politics of climate change|Climate change mitigation#Policies}}
[[File:Climate_Change_Performance_Index_(2023).svg|thumb|upright=1.35|The [[Climate Change Performance Index]] ranks countries by greenhouse gas emissions (40% of score), renewable energy (20%), energy use (20%), and climate policy (20%).
{| border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="width:100%; background:none;"
|-
|valign="top"|
{{legend|#31a354|High}}
|valign="top"|
{{legend|#fee391|Medium}}
|valign="top"|
{{legend|#fe9929|Low}}
|valign="top"|
{{legend|#d7301f|Very low}}
|}]]
Countries that are most [[Climate change vulnerability|vulnerable to climate change]] have typically been responsible for a small share of global emissions. This raises questions about justice and fairness.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=Section 3|p=17}}</ref> Limiting global warming makes it much easier to achieve the UN's [[Sustainable Development Goals]], such as eradicating poverty and reducing inequalities. The connection is recognised in [[Sustainable Development Goal 13]] which is to "take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts".<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch5|2018|p=447}}; United Nations (2017) Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 6 July 2017, [[:File:A RES 71 313 E.pdf|Work of the Statistical Commission pertaining to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development]] ([https://undocs.org/A/RES/71/313 A/RES/71/313])</ref> The goals on food, clean water and ecosystem protection have synergies with climate mitigation.{{sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch5|2018|p=477}}

The [[geopolitics]] of climate change is complex. It has often been framed as a [[free-rider problem]], in which all countries benefit from mitigation done by other countries, but individual countries would lose from switching to a [[low-carbon economy]] themselves. Sometimes mitigation also has localised benefits though. For instance, the benefits of a [[coal phase out|coal phase-out]] to public health and local environments exceed the costs in almost all regions.<ref name="Rauner 2020">{{harvnb|Rauner|Bauer|Dirnaichner|Van Dingenen|2020}}</ref> Furthermore, net importers of fossil fuels win economically from switching to clean energy, causing net exporters to face [[stranded assets]]: fossil fuels they cannot sell.<ref>{{harvnb|Mercure|Pollitt|Viñuales|Edwards|2018}}</ref>

=== Policy options ===
A wide range of [[Policy|policies]], [[regulation]]s, and [[law]]s are being used to reduce emissions. As of 2019, [[carbon pricing]] covers about 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|World Bank, June|2019|p=12|loc=Box 1}}</ref> Carbon can be priced with [[carbon tax]]es and [[Carbon emission trading|emissions trading systems]].<ref>{{harvnb|Union of Concerned Scientists, 8 January|2017}}; {{harvnb|Hagmann|Ho|Loewenstein|2019}}.</ref> Direct global [[fossil fuel subsidies]] reached $319 billion in 2017, and $5.2 trillion when indirect costs such as air pollution are priced in.<ref>{{harvnb|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|p=1866}}</ref> Ending these can cause a 28% reduction in global carbon emissions and a 46% reduction in air pollution deaths.<ref>{{harvnb|UN Human Development Report|2020|p=10}}</ref> Money saved on fossil subsidies could be used to support the [[Renewable energy transition|transition to clean energy]] instead.<ref>{{harvnb|International Institute for Sustainable Development|2019|p=iv}}</ref> More direct methods to reduce greenhouse gases include vehicle efficiency standards, renewable fuel standards, and air pollution regulations on heavy industry.<ref>{{harvnb|ICCT|2019|p=iv}}; {{harvnb|Natural Resources Defense Council, 29 September|2017}}</ref> Several countries [[Renewable portfolio standard|require utilities to increase the share of renewables in power production]].<ref>{{harvnb|National Conference of State Legislators, 17 April|2020}}; {{harvnb|European Parliament, February|2020}}</ref>

==== Climate justice ====
Policy designed through the lens of [[climate justice]] tries to address [[human rights]] issues and social inequality. According to proponents of climate justice, the costs of climate adaptation should be paid by those most responsible for climate change, while the beneficiaries of payments should be those suffering impacts. One way this can be addressed in practice is to have wealthy nations pay poorer countries to adapt.<ref>{{Cite web|last1=Gabbatiss|first1=Josh|last2=Tandon|first2=Ayesha|date=4 October 2021|title=In-depth Q&A: What is 'climate justice'?|url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-what-is-climate-justice|access-date=16 October 2021|website=Carbon Brief|language=en}}</ref>

Oxfam found that in 2023 the wealthiest 10% of people were responsible for 50% of global emissions, while the bottom 50% were responsible for just 8%.<ref>{{Cite journal|title=Climate Equality: A planet for the 99% |last1=Khalfan|first1=Ashfaq|last2=Lewis|first2=Astrid Nilsson|last3=Aguilar|first3=Carlos|last4=Persson|first4=Jacqueline|last5=Lawson|first5=Max|last6=Dab|first6=Nafkote|last7=Jayoussi|first7=Safa|last8=Acharya|first8=Sunil|date=November 2023|publisher=Oxfam GB |website=Oxfam Digital Repository |doi=10.21201/2023.000001|url=https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/621551/cr-climate-equality-201123-en-summ.pdf|access-date=18 December 2023}}</ref> Production of emissions is another way to look at responsibility: under that approach, the top 21 fossil fuel companies would owe cumulative [[climate reparations]] of $5.4 trillion over the period 2025–2050.<ref name=OneEarth_20230519>{{cite journal |last1=Grasso |first1=Marco |last2=Heede |first2=Richard |title=Time to pay the piper: Fossil fuel companies' reparations for climate damages |journal=One Earth |date=19 May 2023 |volume=6 |issue=5 |pages=459–463 |doi=10.1016/j.oneear.2023.04.012 |bibcode=2023OEart...6..459G |bibcode-access=free |s2cid=258809532 |s2cid-access=free |doi-access=free |hdl=10281/416137 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> To achieve a [[just transition]], people working in the fossil fuel sector would also need other jobs, and their communities would need investments.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 4 Jan|2017}}.</ref>

=== International climate agreements ===
{{Further|United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change}}
[[File:Total CO2 by Region.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Since 2000, rising {{CO2}} emissions in China and the rest of world have surpassed the output of the United States and Europe.<ref name="Friedlingstein 2019">{{harvnb|Friedlingstein|Jones|O'Sullivan|Andrew|2019}}, Table 7.</ref>]]
[[File:Per Capita CO2 by Region.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Per person, the United States generates {{CO2}} at a far faster rate than other primary regions.<ref name="Friedlingstein 2019"/>]]
Nearly all countries in the world are parties to the 1994 [[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]] (UNFCCC).<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC, "What is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?"}}</ref> The goal of the UNFCCC is to prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC|1992|loc=Article 2}}.</ref> As stated in the convention, this requires that greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilised in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and [[Economics of climate change|economic development]] can be sustained.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3 Ch1|2007|p=97}}.</ref> The UNFCCC does not itself restrict emissions but rather provides a framework for protocols that do. Global emissions have risen since the UNFCCC was signed.<ref name="EPA-2019">{{harvnb|EPA|2019}}.</ref> [[United Nations Climate Change conference|Its yearly conferences]] are the stage of global negotiations.<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC, "What are United Nations Climate Change Conferences?"}}</ref>

The 1997 [[Kyoto Protocol]] extended the UNFCCC and included legally binding commitments for most developed countries to limit their emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|Kyoto Protocol|1997}}; {{harvnb|Liverman|2009|p=290}}.</ref> During the negotiations, the [[Group of 77|G77]] (representing [[Developing country|developing countries]]) pushed for a mandate requiring [[Developed country|developed countries]] to "[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions,<ref>{{harvnb|Dessai|2001|p=4}}; {{harvnb|Grubb|2003}}.</ref> since developed countries contributed most to the [[Greenhouse gas emissions#Cumulative and historical emissions|accumulation of greenhouse gases]] in the atmosphere. Per-capita emissions were also still relatively low in developing countries and developing countries would need to emit more to meet their development needs.<ref>{{harvnb|Liverman|2009|p=290}}.</ref>

The 2009 [[Copenhagen Accord]] has been widely portrayed as disappointing because of its low goals, and was rejected by poorer nations including the G77.<ref>{{harvnb|Müller|2010}}; {{harvnb|The New York Times, 25 May|2015}}; {{harvnb|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009}}; {{harvnb|EUobserver, 20 December|2009}}.</ref> Associated parties aimed to limit the global temperature rise to below 2&nbsp;°C.<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009}}.</ref> The Accord set the goal of sending $100 billion per year to developing countries for mitigation and adaptation by 2020, and proposed the founding of the [[Green Climate Fund]].<ref>{{cite conference |date=7–18 December 2009 |title=Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change |url=http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_15/items/5257.php |location=[[Copenhagen]] |id=un document= FCCC/CP/2009/L.7 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101018074452/http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_15/items/5257.php |archive-date=18 October 2010 |access-date=24 October 2010 |url-status=live}}</ref> {{As of|2020|}}, only 83.3 billion were delivered. Only in 2023 the target is expected to be achieved.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Bennett |first1=Paige |title=High-Income Nations Are on Track Now to Meet $100 Billion Climate Pledges, but They're Late |url=https://www.ecowatch.com/wealthy-countries-climate-change-reparations.html |access-date=10 May 2023 |agency=Ecowatch |date=2 May 2023}}</ref>

In 2015 all UN countries negotiated the [[Paris Agreement]], which aims to keep global warming well below 2.0&nbsp;°C and contains an aspirational goal of keeping warming under {{val|1.5|u=°C}}.{{sfn|Paris Agreement|2015}} The agreement replaced the Kyoto Protocol. Unlike Kyoto, no binding emission targets were set in the Paris Agreement. Instead, a set of procedures was made binding. Countries have to regularly set ever more ambitious goals and reevaluate these goals every five years.<ref>{{harvnb|Climate Focus|2015|p=3}}; {{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 8 October|2018}}.</ref> The Paris Agreement restated that developing countries must be financially supported.<ref>{{harvnb|Climate Focus|2015|p=5}}.</ref> {{As of|October 2021}}, 194 states and the [[European Union]] have signed the treaty and 191 states and the EU have [[Ratification|ratified]] or acceded to the agreement.<ref>{{cite web |title=Status of Treaties, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |url=https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-d&chapter=27&clang=_en |access-date=13 October 2021 |website=[[United Nations Treaty Collection]]}}; {{harvnb|Salon, 25 September|2019}}.</ref>

The 1987 [[Montreal Protocol]], an international agreement to stop emitting ozone-depleting gases, may have been more effective at curbing greenhouse gas emissions than the Kyoto Protocol specifically designed to do so.<ref>{{harvnb|Goyal|England|Sen Gupta|Jucker|2019}}</ref> The 2016 [[Kigali Amendment]] to the Montreal Protocol aims to reduce the emissions of [[hydrofluorocarbon]]s, a group of powerful greenhouse gases which served as a replacement for banned ozone-depleting gases. This made the Montreal Protocol a stronger agreement against climate change.<ref>{{cite web |last=Yeo |first=Sophie |date=10 October 2016 |title=Explainer: Why a UN climate deal on HFCs matters |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-why-a-un-climate-deal-on-hfcs-matters |access-date=10 January 2021 |website=Carbon Brief}}</ref>

=== National responses ===
In 2019, the [[Parliament of the United Kingdom|United Kingdom parliament]] became the first national government to declare a climate emergency.<ref>{{Harvnb|BBC, 1 May|2019}}; {{Harvnb|Vice, 2 May|2019}}.</ref> Other countries and [[jurisdiction]]s followed suit.<ref>{{harvnb|The Verge, 27 December|2019}}.</ref> That same year, the [[European Parliament]] declared a "climate and environmental emergency".<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 28 November|2019}}</ref> The [[European Commission]] presented its [[European Green Deal]] with the goal of making the EU carbon-neutral by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|Politico, 11 December|2019}}.</ref> In 2021, the European Commission released its "[[Fit for 55]]" legislation package, which contains guidelines for the [[automotive industry|car industry]]; all new cars on the European market must be [[Zero-emissions vehicle|zero-emission vehicles]] from 2035.<ref>{{cite news |title=European Green Deal: Commission proposes transformation of EU economy and society to meet climate ambitions |url=https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_3541 |work=[[European Commission]] |date=14 July 2021}}</ref>

Major countries in Asia have made similar pledges: South Korea and Japan have committed to become carbon-neutral by 2050, and China by 2060.<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 28 October|2020}}</ref> While India has strong incentives for renewables, it also plans a significant expansion of coal in the country.<ref>{{cite web |date=15 September 2021 |title=India |url=https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india/ |access-date=3 October 2021 |website=Climate Action Tracker}}</ref> Vietnam is among very few coal-dependent fast developing countries that pledged to phase out unabated coal power by the 2040s or as soon as possible thereafter.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Do |first1=Thang Nam |last2=Burke |first2=Paul J. |title=Phasing out coal power in a developing country context: Insights from Vietnam |journal=Energy Policy |year=2023 |volume=176 |issue=May 2023 113512 |page=113512 |doi=10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113512|s2cid=257356936 |hdl=1885/286612 |hdl-access=free }}</ref>

As of 2021, based on information from 48 [[Nationally Determined Contributions|national climate plans]], which represent 40% of the parties to the Paris Agreement, estimated total greenhouse gas emissions will be 0.5% lower compared to 2010 levels, below the 45% or 25% reduction goals to limit global warming to 1.5&nbsp;°C or 2&nbsp;°C, respectively.<ref>{{harvnb|UN NDC Synthesis Report|2021|pp=4–5}}; {{cite news |author=UNFCCC Press Office |date=26 February 2021 |title=Greater Climate Ambition Urged as Initial NDC Synthesis Report Is Published |url=https://unfccc.int/news/greater-climate-ambition-urged-as-initial-ndc-synthesis-report-is-published |access-date=21 April 2021}}</ref>

== Society ==
=== Denial and misinformation ===
{{Further|Climate change denial|Fossil fuels lobby}}
[[File:20200327 Climate change deniers cherry picking time periods.gif|thumb |upright=1.35 |right |Data has been [[cherry picking|cherry picked]] from short periods to falsely assert that global temperatures are not rising. Blue trendlines show short periods that mask longer-term warming trends (red trendlines). Blue rectangle with blue dots shows the so-called [[global warming hiatus]].{{sfn|Stover|2014}}]]
Public debate about climate change has been strongly affected by climate change denial and [[misinformation]], which originated in the United States and has since spread to other countries, particularly Canada and Australia. Climate change denial has originated from fossil fuel companies, industry groups, [[conservative]] think tanks, and [[contrarian]] scientists.<ref>{{harvnb|Dunlap|McCright|2011|pp=144, [https://books.google.com/books?id=RsYr_iQUs6QC&pg=PA155 155]}}; {{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}}</ref> [[Tobacco industry playbook|Like the tobacco industry]], the main strategy of these groups has been to manufacture doubt about scientific data and results.<ref>{{harvnb|Oreskes|Conway|2010}}; {{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}}</ref> People who hold unwarranted doubt about climate change are called climate change "skeptics", although "contrarians" or "deniers" are more appropriate terms.<ref>{{harvnb|O'Neill|Boykoff|2010}}; {{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}}</ref>

There are different variants of climate denial: some deny that warming takes place at all, some acknowledge warming but attribute it to natural influences, and some minimise the negative impacts of climate change.<ref name="Björnberg 2017">{{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}}</ref> Manufacturing uncertainty about the science later developed into a [[manufactured controversy]]: creating the belief that there is significant uncertainty about climate change within the scientific community in order to delay policy changes.<ref>{{harvnb|Dunlap|McCright|2015|p=308}}.</ref> Strategies to promote these ideas include criticism of scientific institutions,<ref>{{harvnb|Dunlap|McCright|2011|p=146}}.</ref> and questioning the motives of individual scientists.<ref name="Björnberg 2017"/> An [[echo chamber (media)|echo chamber]] of climate-denying [[blogs]] and media has further fomented misunderstanding of climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|Harvey|Van den Berg|Ellers|Kampen|2018}}</ref>

=== Public awareness and opinion<span class="anchor" id="Public awareness"></span> ===
{{Further|Climate communication|Media coverage of climate change|Public opinion on climate change}}
[[File:20220629 Public estimates of scientific consensus on climate change - horizontal bar chart.svg|thumb|upright=1.35| The public substantially underestimates the degree of scientific consensus that humans are causing climate change.<ref name=KingsCollegeReport_20220629>{{cite web |title=Public perceptions on climate change |url=https://peritia-trust.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/4-Climate-change_EU.pdf |website=PERITIA Trust EU – The Policy Institute of King's College London |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220715062933/https://peritia-trust.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/4-Climate-change_EU.pdf |archive-date=15 July 2022 |page=4 |date=June 2022 |url-status=live}}</ref> Studies from 2019 to 2021<ref name=Powell_2019>{{cite journal |last1=Powell |first1=James |date=20 November 2019 |title=Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming |url=https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0270467619886266?journalCode=bsta |journal=[[Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society]] |volume=37 |issue=4 |pages=183–184 |doi=10.1177/0270467619886266 |s2cid=213454806}}</ref><ref name=Lynas_2021/><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Myers |first1=Krista F. |last2=Doran |first2=Peter T. |last3=Cook |first3=John |last4=Kotcher |first4=John E. |last5=Myers |first5=Teresa A. |title=Consensus revisited: quantifying scientific agreement on climate change and climate expertise among Earth scientists 10 years later |journal=[[Environmental Research Letters]] |date=20 October 2021 |volume=16 |issue=10 |page=104030 |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/ac2774 |bibcode=2021ERL....16j4030M |s2cid=239047650 |doi-access=free }}</ref> found scientific consensus to range from 98.7 to 100%.]]
Climate change came to international public attention in the late 1980s.<ref name="Weart">{{harvnb|Weart "The Public and Climate Change (since 1980)"}}</ref> Due to media coverage in the early 1990s, people often confused climate change with other environmental issues like ozone depletion.<ref name="Newell2006">{{harvnb|Newell|2006|p=80}}; {{harvnb|Yale Climate Connections, 2 November|2010}}</ref> [[Climate change in popular culture|In popular culture]], the [[climate fiction]] movie ''[[The Day After Tomorrow]]'' (2004) and the [[Al Gore]] documentary ''[[An Inconvenient Truth]]'' (2006) focused on climate change.<ref name="Weart" />

Significant regional, gender, age and political differences exist in both public concern for, and understanding of, climate change. More highly educated people, and in some countries, women and younger people, were more likely to see climate change as a serious threat.<ref>{{harvnb|Pew|2015|p=10}}.</ref> Partisan gaps also exist in many countries,<ref name="auto1">{{harvnb|Pew|2020|}}.</ref> and countries with high {{CO2}} emissions tend to be less concerned.<ref>{{harvnb|Pew|2015|p=15}}.</ref> Views on causes of climate change vary widely between countries.<ref>{{harvnb|Yale|2021|p=7}}.</ref> Concern has increased over time,<ref name="auto1"/> to the point where in 2021 a majority of citizens in many countries express a high level of worry about climate change, or view it as a global emergency.<ref>{{harvnb|Yale|2021|p=9}}; {{harvnb|UNDP|2021|p=15}}.</ref> Higher levels of worry are associated with stronger public support for policies that address climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|Smith|Leiserowitz|2013|p=943}}.</ref>

==== Climate movement ====
{{Main|Climate movement|Climate change litigation}}
Climate protests demand that political leaders take action to prevent climate change. They can take the form of public demonstrations, [[fossil fuel divestment]], lawsuits and other activities.<ref>{{harvnb|Gunningham|2018}}.</ref> Prominent demonstrations include the [[School Strike for Climate]]. In this initiative, young people across the globe have been protesting since 2018 by skipping school on Fridays, inspired by Swedish teenager [[Greta Thunberg]].<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 19 March|2019}}; {{harvnb|Boulianne|Lalancette|Ilkiw|2020}}.</ref> Mass [[civil disobedience]] actions by groups like [[Extinction Rebellion]] have protested by disrupting roads and public transport.<ref>{{harvnb|Deutsche Welle, 22 June|2019}}.</ref>

[[Climate change litigation|Litigation]] is increasingly used as a tool to strengthen climate action from public institutions and companies. Activists also initiate lawsuits which target governments and demand that they take ambitious action or enforce existing laws on climate change.<ref>{{cite news |last=Connolly |first=Kate |date=29 April 2021 |title='Historic' German ruling says climate goals not tough enough |url=http://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/29/historic-german-ruling-says-climate-goals-not-tough-enough |access-date=1 May 2021 |work=[[The Guardian]]}}</ref> Lawsuits against fossil-fuel companies generally seek compensation for [[loss and damage (climate change)|loss and damage]].<ref>{{harvnb|Setzer|Byrnes|2019}}.</ref>

== History ==
{{Broader|History of climate change science}}

=== Early discoveries ===
[[File:19120814 Coal Consumption Affecting Climate - Rodney and Otamatea Times.jpg|thumb|upright=1.35 |This 1912 article succinctly describes the greenhouse effect, how burning coal creates carbon dioxide to cause global warming and climate change.<ref name="Otamatea Times">{{cite news |date=14 August 1912 |title=Coal Consumption Affecting Climate |page=7 |work=Rodney and Otamatea Times, Waitemata and Kaipara Gazette |location=Warkworth, New Zealand |url=https://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/newspapers/ROTWKG19120814.2.56.5}} Text was earlier [[:File:191203 Furnaces of the world - Popular Mechanics - Global warming.jpg|published in ''Popular Mechanics'']], March 1912, p. 341.</ref>]]
Scientists in the 19th century such as [[Alexander von Humboldt]] began to foresee the effects of climate change.<ref name="Nord 2020 p. 51">{{cite book | last=Nord | first=D.C. | title=Nordic Perspectives on the Responsible Development of the Arctic: Pathways to Action | publisher=Springer International Publishing | series=Springer Polar Sciences | year=2020 | isbn=978-3-030-52324-4 | url=https://books.google.com/books?id=KmMGEAAAQBAJ&pg=PA51 | access-date=11 March 2023 | page=51}}</ref><ref name="Mukherjee Scanlon Aureli Langan 2020 p. 331">{{cite book | last1=Mukherjee | first1=A. | last2=Scanlon | first2=B.R. | last3=Aureli | first3=A. | last4=Langan | first4=S. | last5=Guo | first5=H. | last6=McKenzie | first6=A.A. | title=Global Groundwater: Source, Scarcity, Sustainability, Security, and Solutions | publisher=Elsevier Science | year=2020 | isbn=978-0-12-818173-7 | url=https://books.google.com/books?id=17vbDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA331 | access-date=11 March 2023 | page=331}}</ref><ref name="von Humboldt Wulf 2018 p. 10">{{cite book | last1=von Humboldt | first1=A. | last2=Wulf | first2=A. | title=Selected Writings of Alexander von Humboldt: Edited and Introduced by Andrea Wulf | publisher=Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group | series=Everyman's Library Classics Series | year=2018 | isbn=978-1-101-90807-5 | url=https://books.google.com/books?id=xal2DwAAQBAJ&pg=PR10 | access-date=11 March 2023 | page=10}}</ref><ref name="Erdkamp Manning Verboven 2021 p. 6">{{cite book | last1=Erdkamp | first1=P. | last2=Manning | first2=J.G. | last3=Verboven | first3=K. | title=Climate Change and Ancient Societies in Europe and the Near East: Diversity in Collapse and Resilience | publisher=Springer International Publishing | series=Palgrave Studies in Ancient Economies | year=2021 | isbn=978-3-030-81103-7 | url=https://books.google.com/books?id=ZbdMEAAAQBAJ&pg=PR6 | access-date=11 March 2023 | page=6}}</ref> In the 1820s, [[Joseph Fourier]] proposed the greenhouse effect to explain why Earth's temperature was higher than the Sun's energy alone could explain. Earth's atmosphere is transparent to sunlight, so sunlight reaches the surface where it is converted to heat. However, the atmosphere is not transparent to heat radiating from the surface, and captures some of that heat, which in turn warms the planet.<ref>{{harvnb|Archer|Pierrehumbert|2013|pp=[https://books.google.com/books?id=sPY9HOfnuS0C&pg=PA10 10–14]}}</ref>

In 1856 [[Eunice Newton Foote]] demonstrated that the warming effect of the Sun is greater for air with water vapour than for dry air, and that the effect is even greater with carbon dioxide ({{co2}}). She concluded that "An atmosphere of that gas would give to our earth a high temperature..."<ref>{{cite journal |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=6xhFAQAAMAAJ&pg=PA382 |last=Foote |first=Eunice |title=Circumstances affecting the Heat of the Sun's Rays |journal=The American Journal of Science and Arts |date=November 1856 |volume=22 |pages=382–383 |access-date=31 January 2016 |via=[[Google Books]]}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Huddleston|2019}}</ref>

[[File:Tyndalls setup for measuring radiant heat absorption by gases annotated.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Studying what would become known as the greenhouse effect, Tyndall's pre-1861 [[Spectrophotometry|ratio spectrophotometer]] measured how much various gases in a tube absorb and emit infrared radiation—which humans experience as heat.]]
Starting in 1859,<ref>{{harvnb|Tyndall|1861}}.</ref> [[John Tyndall]] established that nitrogen and oxygen—together totaling 99% of dry air—are transparent to radiated heat. However, water vapour and gases such as methane and carbon dioxide absorb radiated heat and re-radiate that heat into the atmosphere. Tyndall proposed that changes in the concentrations of these gases may have caused climatic changes in the past, including [[ice age]]s.<ref>{{harvnb|Archer|Pierrehumbert|2013|pp=[https://books.google.com/books?id=sPY9HOfnuS0C&pg=PA39 39–42]}}; {{harvnb|Fleming|2008|loc=[http://nsdl.library.cornell.edu/websites/wiki/index.php/PALE_ClassicArticles/GlobalWarming/Article3.html Tyndall]}}</ref>

[[Svante Arrhenius]] noted that water vapour in air continuously varied, but the {{co2}} concentration in air was influenced by long-term geological processes. Warming from increased {{co2}} levels would increase the amount of water vapour, amplifying warming in a positive feedback loop. In 1896, he published the first [[climate model]] of its kind, projecting that halving {{co2}} levels could have produced a drop in temperature initiating an ice age. Arrhenius calculated the temperature increase expected from doubling {{co2}} to be around 5–6&nbsp;°C.{{sfn|Lapenis|1998}} Other scientists were initially skeptical and believed that the greenhouse effect was saturated so that adding more {{co2}} would make no difference, and that the climate would be self-regulating.<ref name="Weart The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect">{{harvnb|Weart "The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect"}}; {{harvnb|Fleming|2008|loc=[http://nsdl.library.cornell.edu/websites/wiki/index.php/PALE_ClassicArticles/GlobalWarming/Article4.html Arrhenius]}}</ref> Beginning in 1938, [[Guy Stewart Callendar]] published evidence that climate was warming and {{co2}} levels were rising,<ref>{{harvnb|Callendar|1938}}; {{harvnb|Fleming|2007}}.</ref> but his calculations met the same objections.<ref name="Weart The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect" />

=== Development of a scientific consensus ===
{{see also|Scientific consensus on climate change}}
[[File:20211103 Academic studies of scientific consensus - global warming, climate change - vertical bar chart - en.svg |thumb|right |upright=1.35 |''Scientific consensus on causation:'' Academic studies of scientific agreement on human-caused global warming among climate experts (2010–2015) reflect that the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Cook |first1=John |last2=Oreskes |first2= Naomi |last3=Doran |first3=Peter T. |last4=Anderegg |first4=William R. L. |last5=Verheggen |first5=Bart |display-authors=4 |date=2016 |title=Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming |journal=Environmental Research Letters |volume=11 |issue=4 |page=048002 |bibcode= 2016ERL....11d8002C |doi= 10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002 |doi-access=free|hdl=1983/34949783-dac1-4ce7-ad95-5dc0798930a6 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> A 2019 study found scientific consensus to be at 100%,<ref name="Powell2019" /> and a 2021 study concluded that consensus exceeded 99%.<ref name="Lynas2021" /> Another 2021 study found that 98.7% of climate experts indicated that the Earth is getting warmer mostly because of human activity.<ref name="Myers2021">{{cite journal |last1=Myers |first1=Krista F. |last2= Doran |first2=Peter T. |last3=Cook |first3=John |last4=Kotcher |first4=John E. |last5=Myers |first5=Teresa A. |title=Consensus revisited: quantifying scientific agreement on climate change and climate expertise among Earth scientists 10 years later |journal= Environmental Research Letters |date=20 October 2021 |volume=16 |issue=10 |page=104030 |doi= 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2774 |bibcode= 2021ERL....16j4030M |s2cid= 239047650 |doi-access=free}}</ref>]]
In the 1950s, [[Gilbert Plass]] created a detailed computer model that included different atmospheric layers and the infrared spectrum. This model predicted that increasing {{co2}} levels would cause warming. Around the same time, [[Hans Suess]] found evidence that {{co2}} levels had been rising, and [[Roger Revelle]] showed that the oceans would not absorb the increase. The two scientists subsequently helped [[Charles David Keeling|Charles Keeling]] to begin a record of continued increase, which has been termed the "[[Keeling Curve]]".<ref name="Weart The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect" /> Scientists alerted the public,<ref>{{harvnb|Weart "Suspicions of a Human-Caused Greenhouse (1956–1969)"}}</ref> and the dangers were highlighted at James Hansen's 1988 Congressional testimony.<ref name="history.aip.org2"/> The [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]] (IPCC), set up in 1988 to provide formal advice to the world's governments, spurred [[Interdisciplinarity|interdisciplinary research]].<ref>{{harvnb|Weart|2013|p=3567}}.</ref> As part of the [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change#Assessment reports|IPCC reports]], scientists assess the scientific discussion that takes place in [[Peer review|peer-reviewed]] [[Scientific journal|journal]] articles.<ref>{{harvnb|Royal Society|2005}}.</ref>

There is a near-complete scientific consensus that the climate is warming and that this is caused by human activities. As of 2019, agreement in recent literature reached over 99%.<ref name="Powell2019">{{cite journal |last1=Powell |first1=James |date=20 November 2019 |title=Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming |url=https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0270467619886266?journalCode=bsta |journal=[[Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society]] |volume=37 |issue=4 |pages=183–184 |doi=10.1177/0270467619886266 |access-date=15 November 2020 |s2cid=213454806}}</ref><ref name="Lynas2021">{{Cite journal |last1=Lynas |first1=Mark |last2=Houlton |first2=Benjamin Z |last3=Perry |first3=Simon |date=2021 |title=Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature |journal=[[Environmental Research Letters]] |volume=16 |issue=11 |pages=114005 |bibcode=2021ERL....16k4005L |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966 |issn=1748-9326 |s2cid=239032360|doi-access=free }}</ref> No scientific body of national or international standing [[Scientific consensus on climate change#Opposing|disagrees with this view]].<ref>{{harvnb|National Academies|2008|p=2}}; {{harvnb|Oreskes|2007|p=[https://books.google.com/books?id=PXJIqCkb7YIC&pg=PA68 68]}}; {{Harvnb|Gleick, 7 January|2017}}</ref> Consensus has further developed that some form of action should be taken to protect people against the impacts of climate change. National science academies have called on world leaders to cut global emissions.<ref>Joint statement of the {{harvtxt|G8+5 Academies|2009}}; {{harvnb|Gleick, 7 January|2017}}.</ref> The 2021 IPCC Assessment Report stated that it is "unequivocal" that climate change is caused by humans.<ref name="Lynas2021" />

== See also ==
<!-- Please note that the Manual of Style advices a minimum (or no) items in this sections for featured articles. -->
{{portal|Climate change|Environment}}
* [[Anthropocene]] – proposed new geological time interval in which humans are having significant geological impact
* [[List of climate scientists]]
{{clear right}}

== References ==
{{reflist|22em}}

=== Sources ===
{{Free-content attribution
| title = The status of women in agrifood systems – Overview
| author = FAO
| publisher = FAO 
| page numbers = 
| source = 
| documentURL = https://doi.org/10.4060/cc5060en
| license statement URL = https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_status_of_women_in_agrifood_systems_-_Overview.pdf
| license = CC BY-SA 3.0
}}

==== IPCC reports ====
{{refbegin}}

'''Fourth Assessment Report'''
<!--     Short-cite {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}} links to this citation. -->
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}
 |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
 |year =2007
 |title=Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
 |series=Contribution of Working Group I to the [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report|Fourth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
 |display-editors=4
 |editor-first1=S. |editor-last1=Solomon
 |editor-first2=D. |editor-last2=Qin
 |editor-first3=M. |editor-last3=Manning
 |editor-first4=Z. |editor-last4=Chen
 |editor-first5=M. |editor-last5=Marquis
 |editor-first6=K. B. |editor-last6=Averyt
 |editor-first7=M. |editor-last7=Tignor
 |editor-first8=H. L. |editor-last8=Miller
 |publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]
 |url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html
 |isbn=978-0-521-88009-1
}}
<!-- # -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch1|2007}}
 |chapter=Chapter 1: Historical Overview of Climate Change Science
 |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter1.pdf
 |year=2007
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=H. |last1=Le Treut
 |first2=R. |last2=Somerville
 |first3=U. |last3=Cubasch
 |first4=Y. |last4=Ding
 |first5=C. |last5=Mauritzen
 |first6=A. |last6=Mokssit
 |first7=T. |last7=Peterson
 |first8=M. |last8=Prather
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}
 |pages=93–127
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch8|2007}}
 |chapter=Chapter 8: Climate Models and their Evaluation
 |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter8.pdf
 |year=2007
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=D. A. |last1=Randall
 |first2=R. A. |last2=Wood
 |first3=S. |last3=Bony
 |first4=R. |last4=Colman
 |first5=T. |last5=Fichefet
 |first6=J. |last6=Fyfe
 |first7=V. |last7=Kattsov
 |first8=A. |last8=Pitman
 |first9=J. |last9=Shukla
 |first10=J. |last10=Srinivasan
 |first11=R. J. |last11=Stouffer
 |first12=A. |last12=Sumi
 |first13=K. E. |last13=Taylor
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}
 |pages=589–662
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch9|2007}}
 |chapter=Chapter 9: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change
 |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter9.pdf
 |year=2007
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=G. C. |last1=Hegerl
 |first2=F. W. |last2=Zwiers
 |first3=P. |last3=Braconnot |author-link3=Pascale Braconnot
 |first4=N. P. |last4=Gillett
 |first5=Y. |last5=Luo
 |first6=J. A. |last6=Marengo Orsini
 |first7=N. |last7=Nicholls
 |first8=J. E. |last8=Penner
 |first9=P. A. |last9=Stott
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}
 |pages=663–745
}}

<!--     Short-cite {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}} links to this citation. -->
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}}
 |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
 |year =2007
 |title=Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
 |series=Contribution of Working Group II to the [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report|Fourth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
 |display-editors=4
 |editor-first1=M. L. |editor-last1=Parry
 |editor-first2=O. F. |editor-last2=Canziani
 |editor-first3=J. P. |editor-last3=Palutikof
 |editor-first4=P. J. |editor-last4=van der Linden
 |editor-first5=C. E. |editor-last5=Hanson
 |publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]
 |url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html
 |isbn=978-0-521-88010-7
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch1|2007}}
 |chapter=Chapter 1: Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems
 |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter1.pdf
 |year=2007
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=C. |last1=Rosenzweig
 |first2=G. |last2=Casassa
 |first3=D. J. |last3=Karoly
 |first4=A. |last4=Imeson
 |first5=C. |last5=Liu
 |first6=A. |last6=Menzel
 |first7=S. |last7=Rawlins
 |first8=T. L. |last8=Root
 |first9=B. |last9=Seguin
 |first10=P. |last10=Tryjanowski
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}}
 |pages=79–131
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch19|2007}}
 |chapter=Chapter 19: Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change
 |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter19.pdf
 |year=2007
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=S. H. |last1=Schneider
 |first2=S. |last2=Semenov
 |first3=A. |last3=Patwardhan
 |first4=I. |last4=Burton
 |first5=C. H. D. |last5=Magadza
 |first6=M. |last6=Oppenheimer
 |first7=A. B. |last7=Pittock
 |first8=A. |last8=Rahman
 |first9=J. B. |last9=Smith
 |first10=A. |last10=Suarez
 |first11=F. |last11=Yamin
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}}
 |pages=779–810
}}

<!--     Short-cite {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}} links to this citation. -->
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}}
 |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
 |year =2007
 |title=Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change
 |series=Contribution of Working Group III to the [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report|Fourth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
 |display-editors=4
 |editor-first1=B. |editor-last1=Metz
 |editor-first2=O. R. |editor-last2=Davidson
 |editor-first3=P. R. |editor-last3=Bosch
 |editor-first4=R. |editor-last4=Dave
 |editor-first5=L. A. |editor-last5=Meyer
 |publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]
 |url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/contents.html
 |isbn=978-0-521-88011-4
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG3 Ch1|2007}}
 |chapter=Chapter 1: Introduction
 |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-chapter1.pdf
 |year=2007
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=H.-H.|last1=Rogner
 |first2=D. |last2=Zhou
 |first3=R. |last3=Bradley
 |first4=P. |last4=Crabbé
 |first5=O. |last5=Edenhofer
 |first6=B. |last6=Hare
 |first7=L. |last7=Kuijpers
 |first8=M. |last8=Yamaguchi
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}}
 |pages=95–116
}}

<!-- =========AR5================== -->
'''Fifth Assessment report'''
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}<!-- ipcc:20200215 -->
 |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
 |year=2013
 |title=Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
 |series=Contribution of Working Group I to the [[IPCC Fifth Assessment Report|Fifth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
 |display-editors=4
 |editor1-first=T. F. |editor1-last=Stocker
 |editor2-first=D. |editor2-last=Qin
 |editor3-first=G.-K. |editor3-last=Plattner
 |editor4-first=M. |editor4-last=Tignor
 |editor5-first=S. K. |editor5-last=Allen
 |editor6-first=J. |editor6-last=Boschung
 |editor7-first=A. |editor7-last=Nauels
 |editor8-first=Y. |editor8-last=Xia
 |editor9-first=V. |editor9-last=Bex
 |editor10-first=P. M. |editor10-last=Midgley
 |publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]
 |place=Cambridge, UK & New York
 |isbn=978-1-107-05799-9 <!-- ISBN in printed source is incorrect. -->
 |url=http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_ALL_FINAL.pdf <!-- Same file, new url per IPCC. -->
}}. [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ AR5 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis – IPCC]
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2013}}
 |chapter=Summary for Policymakers
 |chapter-url=https://ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf
 |year=2013
 |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch2|2013}}
 |chapter=Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2017/09/WG1AR5_Chapter02_FINAL.pdf
 |year=2013
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=D. L. |last1=Hartmann
 |first2=A. M. G. |last2=Klein Tank
 |first3=M. |last3=Rusticucci
 |first4=L. V. |last4=Alexander
 |first5=S. |last5=Brönnimann
 |first6=Y. |last6=Charabi
 |first7=F. J. |last7=Dentener
 |first8=E. J. |last8=Dlugokencky
 |first9=D. R. |last9=Easterling
 |first10=A. |last10=Kaplan
 |first11=B. J. |last11=Soden
 |first12=P. W. |last12=Thorne
 |first13=M. |last13=Wild
 |first14=P. M. |last14=Zhai
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
 |pages=159–254
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch3|2013}}
 |chapter=Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean
 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter03_FINAL.pdf
 |year=2013
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=M. |last1=Rhein
 |first2=S. R. |last2=Rintoul
 |first3=S. |last3=Aoki
 |first4=E. |last4=Campos
 |first5=D. |last5=Chambers
 |first6=R. A. |last6=Feely
 |first7=S. |last7=Gulev
 |first8=G. C. |last8=Johnson
 |first9=S. A. |last9=Josey
 |first10=A. |last10=Kostianoy
 |first11=C. |last11=Mauritzen
 |first12=D. |last12=Roemmich
 |first13=L. D. |last13=Talley
 |first14=F. |last14=Wang
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
 |pages=255–315
}}
** {{cite book |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch5|2013}}
 |chapter=Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives
 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter05_FINAL.pdf
 |year=2013
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=V. |last1=Masson-Delmotte
 |first2=M. |last2=Schulz
 |first3=A. |last3=Abe-Ouchi
 |first4=J. |last4=Beer
 |first5=A. |last5=Ganopolski
 |first6=J. F. |last6=González Rouco
 |first7=E. |last7=Jansen
 |first8=K. |last8=Lambeck
 |first9=J. |last9=Luterbacher
 |first10=T. |last10=Naish
 |first11=T. |last11=Osborn
 |first12=B. |last12=Otto-Bliesner
 |first13=T. |last13=Quinn
 |first14=R. |last14=Ramesh
 |first15=M. |last15=Rojas
 |first16=X. |last16=Shao
 |first17=A. |last17=Timmermann
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
 |pages=383–464
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch10|2013}}
 |chapter=Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional
 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter10_FINAL.pdf
 |year=2013
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=N. L. |last1=Bindoff
 |first2=P. A. |last2=Stott
 |first3=K. M. |last3=AchutaRao
 |first4=M. R. |last4=Allen
 |first5=N. |last5=Gillett
 |first6=D. |last6=Gutzler
 |first7=K. |last7=Hansingo
 |first8=G. |last8=Hegerl
 |first9=Y. |last9=Hu
 |first10=S. |last10=Jain
 |first11=I. I. |last11=Mokhov
 |first12=J. |last12=Overland
 |first13=J. |last13=Perlwitz
 |first14=R. |last14=Sebbari
 |first15=X. |last15=Zhang
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
 |pages=867–952
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013}}
 |chapter=Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility
 |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf
 |year=2013
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=M. |last1=Collins
 |first2=R. |last2=Knutti
 |first3=J. M. |last3=Arblaster
 |first4=J.-L. |last4=Dufresne
 |first5=T. |last5=Fichefet
 |first6=P. |last6=Friedlingstein
 |first7=X. |last7=Gao
 |first8=W. J. |last8=Gutowski
 |first9=T. |last9=Johns
 |first10=G. |last10=Krinner
 |first11=M. |last11=Shongwe
 |first12=C. |last12=Tebaldi
 |first13=A. J. |last13=Weaver
 |first14=M. |last14=Wehner
 |pages=1029–1136
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1|2013}}
}}

<!----------------AR5 Working Group II Report -->
{{anchor|{{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2|2014}}}} <!-- For the entire AR5 WG2 report -->
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
 |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
 |year=2014
 |title=Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects
 |series=Contribution of Working Group II to the [[IPCC Fifth Assessment Report|Fifth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
 |display-editors=4
 |editor-first1=C. B. |editor-last1=Field
 |editor-first2=V. R. |editor-last2=Barros
 |editor-first3=D. J. |editor-last3=Dokken
 |editor-first4=K. J. |editor-last4=Mach
 |editor-first5=M. D. |editor-last5=Mastrandrea
 |editor-first6=T. E. |editor-last6=Bilir
 |editor-first7=M. |editor-last7=Chatterjee
 |editor-first8=K. L. |editor-last8=Ebi
 |editor-first9=Y. O. |editor-last9=Estrada
 |editor-first10=R. C. |editor-last10=Genova
 |editor-first11=B. |editor-last11=Girma
 |editor-first12=E. S. |editor-last12=Kissel
 |editor-first13=A. N. |editor-last13=Levy
 |editor-first14=S. |editor-last14=MacCracken
 |editor-first15=P. R. |editor-last15=Mastrandrea
 |editor-first16=L. L. |editor-last16=White
 |publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]
 |isbn=978-1-107-05807-1
 |url=<!-- ** I haven't added AR5 urls yet as I have not determined which is best. -JJ -->
}}. Chapters 1–20, SPM, and Technical Summary.
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch3|2014}}
 |chapter=Chapter 3: Freshwater Resources
 |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap3_FINAL.pdf
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=B. E. |last1=Jiménez Cisneros
 |first2=T. |last2=Oki
 |first3=N. W. |last3=Arnell
 |first4=G. |last4=Benito
 |first5=J. G. |last5=Cogley
 |first6=P. |last6=Döll
 |first7=T. |last7=Jiang
 |first8=S. S. |last8=Mwakalila
 |year=2014
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
 |pages=229–269
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch7|2014}}
 |chapter=Chapter 7: Food Security and Food Production Systems
 |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap7_FINAL.pdf
 |year=2014
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=J. R. |last1=Porter
 |first2=L. |last2=Xie
 |first3=A. J. |last3=Challinor
 |first4=K. |last4=Cochrane
 |first5=S. M. |last5=Howden
 |first6=M. M. |last6=Iqbal
 |first7=D. B. |last7=Lobell
 |first8=M. I. |last8=Travasso
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
 |pages=485–533
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch11|2014}}
 |chapter=Chapter 11: Human Health: Impacts, Adaptation, and Co-Benefits
 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap11_FINAL.pdf
 |year=2014
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=K. R. |last1=Smith
 |first2=A. |last2=Woodward
 |first3=D. |last3=Campbell-Lendrum
 |first4=D. D. |last4=Chadee
 |first5=Y. |last5=Honda
 |first6=Q. |last6=Lui
 |first7=J. M. |last7=Olwoch
 |first8=B. |last8=Revich
 |first9=R. |last9=Sauerborn
 |title=In {{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
 |pages=709–754
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch13|2014}}
 |chapter=Chapter 13: Livelihoods and Poverty
 |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap13_FINAL.pdf
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=L. |last1=Olsson
 |first2=M. |last2=Opondo
 |first3=P. |last3=Tschakert
 |first4=A. |last4=Agrawal
 |first5=S. H. |last5=Eriksen
 |first6=S. |last6=Ma
 |first7=L. N. |last7=Perch
 |first8=S. A. |last8=Zakieldeen
 |year=2014
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
 |pages=793–832
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch18|2014}}
 |chapter=Chapter 18: Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts
 |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap18_FINAL.pdf
 |year=2014
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=W. |last1=Cramer
 |first2=G. W. |last2=Yohe
 |first3=M. |last3=Auffhammer
 |first4=C. |last4=Huggel
 |first5=U. |last5=Molau
 |first6=M. A. F. |last6=da Silva Dias
 |first7=A. |last7=Solow
 |first8=D. A. |last8=Stone
 |first9=L. |last9=Tibig
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
 |pages=979–1037
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch19|2014}}
 |chapter=Chapter 19: Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities
 |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap19_FINAL.pdf
 |year=2014
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=M. |last1=Oppenheimer
 |first2=M. |last2=Campos
 |first3=R. |last3=Warren
 |first4=J. |last4=Birkmann
 |first5=G. |last5=Luber
 |first6=B. |last6=O'Neill
 |first7=K. |last7=Takahashi
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 A|2014}}
 |pages=1039–1099
}}
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 B|2014}}
 |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
 |year=2014
 |title=Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects
 |series=Contribution of Working Group II to the [[IPCC Fifth Assessment Report|Fifth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
 |display-editors=4
 |editor-first1=V. R. |editor-last1=Barros
 |editor-first2=C. B. |editor-last2=Field
 |editor-first3=D. J. |editor-last3=Dokken
 |editor-first4=K. J. |editor-last4=Mach
 |editor-first5=M. D. |editor-last5=Mastrandrea
 |editor-first6=T. E. |editor-last6=Bilir
 |editor-first7=M. |editor-last7=Chatterjee
 |editor-first8=K. L. |editor-last8=Ebi
 |editor-first9=Y. O. |editor-last9=Estrada
 |editor-first10=R. C. |editor-last10=Genova
 |editor-first11=B. |editor-last11=Girma
 |editor-first12=E. S. |editor-last12=Kissel
 |editor-first13=A. N. |editor-last13=Levy
 |editor-first14=S. |editor-last14=MacCracken
 |editor-first15=P. R. |editor-last15=Mastrandrea
 |editor-first16=L.L |editor-last16=White
 |publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]
 |place=Cambridge, UK & New York
 |isbn=978-1-107-05816-3
 |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-PartB_FINAL.pdf
}}. Chapters 21–30, Annexes, and Index.
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch28|2014}}
 |chapter=Chapter 28: Polar Regions
 |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap28_FINAL.pdf
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=J. N. |last1=Larsen
 |first2=O. A. |last2=Anisimov
 |first3=A. |last3=Constable
 |first4=A. B. |last4=Hollowed
 |first5=N. |last5=Maynard
 |first6=P. |last6=Prestrud
 |first7=T. D. |last7=Prowse
 |first8=J. M. R.|last8=Stone
 |year=2014
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 B|2014}}
 |pages=1567–1612
}}

<!-- ------------------------------ -->
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG3|2014}}
 |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
 |year=2014
 |title=Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change
 |series=Contribution of Working Group III to the [[IPCC Fifth Assessment Report|Fifth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
 |display-editors=4
 |editor-first1=O. |editor-last1=Edenhofer
 |editor-first2=R. |editor-last2=Pichs-Madruga
 |editor-first3=Y. |editor-last3=Sokona
 |editor-first4=E. |editor-last4=Farahani
 |editor-first5=S. |editor-last5=Kadner
 |editor-first6=K. |editor-last6=Seyboth
 |editor-first7=A. |editor-last7=Adler
 |editor-first8=I. |editor-last8=Baum
 |editor-first9=S. |editor-last9=Brunner
 |editor-first10=P. |editor-last10=Eickemeier
 |editor-first11=B. |editor-last11=Kriemann
 |editor-first12=J. |editor-last12=Savolainen
 |editor-first13=S. |editor-last13=Schlömer
 |editor-first14=C. |editor-last14=von Stechow
 |editor-first15=T. |editor-last15=Zwickel
 |editor-first16=J. C. |editor-last16=Minx
 |publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]
 |place=Cambridge, UK & New York, NY
 |isbn= 978-1-107-05821-7
 }}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch5|2014}}<!-- ipcc:20190900 -->
 |chapter=Chapter 5: Drivers, Trends and Mitigation
 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_full.pdf
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=G. |last1=Blanco
 |first2=R. |last2=Gerlagh
 |first3=S. |last3=Suh
 |first4=J. |last4=Barrett
 |first5=H. C. |last5=de Coninck
 |first6=C. F. |last6=Diaz Morejon
 |first7=R. |last7=Mathur
 |first8=N. |last8=Nakicenovic
 |first9=A. |last9=Ofosu Ahenkora
 |first10=J. |last10=Pan
 |first11=H. |last11=Pathak
 |first12=J. |last12=Rice
 |first13=R. |last13=Richels
 |first14=S. J. |last14=Smith
 |first15=D. I. |last15=Stern
 |first16=F. L. |last16=Toth
 |first17=P. |last17=Zhou
 |year=2014
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3|2014}}
 |pages=351–411
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch9|2014}}
 |chapter=Chapter 9: Buildings
 |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter9.pdf
 |year=2014
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=O. |last1=Lucon
 |first2=D. |last2=Ürge-Vorsatz
 |first3=A. |last3=Ahmed
 |first4=H. |last4=Akbari
 |first5=P. |last5=Bertoldi
 |first6=L. |last6=Cabeza
 |first7=N. |last7=Eyre
 |first8=A. |last8=Gadgil
 |first9=L. D. |last9=Harvey
 |first10=Y. |last10=Jiang
 |first11=E. |last11=Liphoto
 |first12=S. |last12=Mirasgedis
 |first13=S. |last13=Murakami
 |first14=J. |last14=Parikh
 |first15=C. |last15=Pyke
 |first16=M. |last16=Vilariño
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3|2014}}
}}
* {{cite book
 |author=IPCC AR5 SYR |author-link=IPCC
 |year=2014
 |title=Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report
 |series=Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the [[IPCC Fifth Assessment Report|Fifth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
 |editor1=The Core Writing Team
 |editor-first2=R. K. |editor-last2=Pachauri
 |editor-first3=L. A. |editor-last3=Meyer
 |publisher=IPCC
 |place=Geneva, Switzerland
 |isbn=<!-- no isbn -->
 |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014}}
 |chapter=Summary for Policymakers
 |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf
 |year=2014
 |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014}}
}}
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014}}
 |chapter=Annex II: Glossary
 |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_Annexes.pdf
 |year=2014
 |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014}}
}}

<!-- =========SR15================== -->
'''Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5&nbsp;°C'''
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
 |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
 |year=2018
 |title=Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty
 |display-editors=4
 |editor-first1=V. |editor-last1=Masson-Delmotte
 |editor-first2=P. |editor-last2=Zhai
 |editor-first3=H.-O. |editor-last3=Pörtner
 |editor-first4=D. |editor-last4=Roberts
 |editor-first5=J. |editor-last5=Skea
 |editor-first6=P. R. |editor-last6=Shukla
 |editor-first7=A. |editor-last7=Pirani
 |editor-first8=W. |editor-last8=Moufouma-Okia
 |editor-first9=C. |editor-last9=Péan
 |editor-first10=R. |editor-last10=Pidcock
 |editor-first11=S. |editor-last11=Connors
 |editor-first12=J. B. R. |editor-last12=Matthews
 |editor-first13=Y. |editor-last13=Chen
 |editor-first14=X. |editor-last14=Zhou
 |editor-first15=M. I. |editor-last15=Gomis
 |editor-first16=E. |editor-last16=Lonnoy
 |editor-first17=T. |editor-last17=Maycock
 |editor-first18=M. |editor-last18=Tignor
 |editor-first19=T. |editor-last19=Waterfeld
 |publisher=[[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]]
 |isbn=<!-- not issued? -->
 |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf
}} [https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ Global Warming of 1.5 °C –].
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
 |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
 |year=2018
 |chapter=Summary for Policymakers
 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_SPM_version_report_HR.pdf
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
 |pages=3–24
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
 |year=2018
 |chapter=Chapter 1: Framing and Context
 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter1_High_Res.pdf
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=M. R. |last1=Allen
 |first2=O. P. |last2=Dube
 |first3=W. |last3=Solecki
 |first4=F. |last4=Aragón-Durand
 |first5=W. |last5=Cramer
 |first6=S. |last6=Humphreys
 |first7=M. |last7=Kainuma
 |first8=J. |last8=Kala
 |first9=N. |last9=Mahowald
 |first10=Y. |last10=Mulugetta
 |first11=R. |last11=Perez
 |first12=M. |last12=Wairiu
 |first13=K. |last13=Zickfeld
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
 |pages=49–91
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
 |year=2018
 |chapter=Chapter 2: Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C in the Context of Sustainable Development
 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter2_High_Res.pdf
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=J. |last1=Rogelj |author1-link=Joeri Rogelj
 |first2=D. |last2=Shindell
 |first3=K. |last3=Jiang
 |first4=S. |last4=Fifta
 |first5=P. |last5=Forster
 |first6=V. |last6=Ginzburg
 |first7=C. |last7=Handa
 |first8=H. |last8=Kheshgi
 |first9=S. |last9=Kobayashi
 |first10=E. |last10=Kriegler
 |first11=L. |last11=Mundaca
 |first12=R. |last12=Séférian
 |first13=M. V. |last13=Vilariño
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
 |pages=93–174
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
 |year=2018
 |chapter=Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5°C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems
 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter3_High_Res.pdf
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=O. |last1=Hoegh-Guldberg
 |first2=D. |last2=Jacob
 |first3=M. |last3=Taylor
 |first4=M. |last4=Bindi
 |first5=S. |last5=Brown
 |first6=I. |last6=Camilloni
 |first7=A. |last7=Diedhiou
 |first8=R. |last8=Djalante
 |first9=K. L. |last9=Ebi
 |first10=F. |last10=Engelbrecht
 |first11=J. |last11=Guiot
 |first12=Y. |last12=Hijioka
 |first13=S. |last13=Mehrotra
 |first14=A. |last14=Payne
 |first15=S. I.|last15=Seneviratne
 |first16=A. |last16=Thomas
 |first17=R. |last17=Warren
 |first18=G. |last18=Zhou
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
 |pages=175–311
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
 |year=2018
 |chapter=Chapter 4: Strengthening and Implementing the Global Response
 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter4_High_Res.pdf
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=H. |last1=de Coninck
 |first2=A. |last2=Revi
 |first3=M. |last3=Babiker
 |first4=P. |last4=Bertoldi
 |first5=M. |last5=Buckeridge
 |first6=A. |last6=Cartwright
 |first7=W. |last7=Dong
 |first8=J. |last8=Ford
 |first9=S. |last9=Fuss
 |first10=J.-C. |last10=Hourcade
 |first11=D. |last11=Ley
 |first12=R. |last12=Mechler
 |first13=P. |last13=Newman
 |first14=A. |last14=Revokatova
 |first15=S. |last15=Schultz
 |first16=L. |last16=Steg
 |first17=T. |last17=Sugiyama
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
 |pages=313–443
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SR15 Ch5|2018}} <!-- ipcc:20200312 -->
 |year=2018
 |chapter=Chapter 5: Sustainable Development, Poverty Eradication and Reducing Inequalities
 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter5_High_Res.pdf
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=J. |last1=Roy
 |first2=P. |last2=Tschakert
 |first3=H. |last3=Waisman
 |first4=S. |last4=Abdul Halim
 |first5=P. |last5=Antwi-Agyei
 |first6=P. |last6=Dasgupta
 |first7=B. |last7=Hayward
 |first8=M. |last8=Kanninen
 |first9=D. |last9=Liverman
 |first10=C. |last10=Okereke
 |first11=P. F. |last11=Pinho
 |first12=K. |last12=Riahi
 |first13=A. G. |last13=Suarez Rodriguez
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018}}
 |pages=445–538
}}

<!-- =========SRCCL    ============================ -->
'''Special Report: Climate change and Land'''
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SRCCL|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 -->
 |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
 |display-editors=4
 |editor-first1=P. R. |editor-last1=Shukla
 |editor-first2=J. |editor-last2=Skea
 |editor-first3=E. |editor-last3=Calvo Buendia
 |editor-first4=V. |editor-last4=Masson-Delmotte
 |editor-first5=H.-O. |editor-last5=Pörtner
 |editor-first6=D. |editor-last6=C. Roberts
 |editor-first7=P. |editor-last7=Zhai
 |editor-first8=R. |editor-last8=Slade
 |editor-first9=S. |editor-last9=Connors
 |editor-first10=R. |editor-last10=van Diemen
 |editor-first11=M. |editor-last11=Ferrat
 |editor-first12=E. |editor-last12=Haughey
 |editor-first13=S. |editor-last13=Luz
 |editor-first14=S. |editor-last14=Neogi
 |editor-first15=M. |editor-last15=Pathak
 |editor-first16=J. |editor-last16=Petzold
 |editor-first17=J. |editor-last17=Portugal Pereira
 |editor-first18=P. |editor-last18=Vyas
 |editor-first19=E. |editor-last19=Huntley
 |editor-first20=K. |editor-last20=Kissick
 |editor-first21=M. |editor-last21=Belkacemi
 |editor-first22=J. |editor-last22=Malley
 |year=2019
 |title=IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse gas fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems
 |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/11/SRCCL-Full-Report-Compiled-191128.pdf
 |publisher=In press
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 -->
 |chapter=Summary for Policymakers
 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/4/2019/12/02_Summary-for-Policymakers_SPM.pdf
 |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
 |year=2019
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019}}
 |pages=3–34
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 -->
 |chapter=Chapter 2: Land-Climate Interactions
 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/11/05_Chapter-2.pdf
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=G. |last1=Jia
 |first2=E. |last2=Shevliakova
 |first3=P. E. |last3=Artaxo<!-- 'Artaxo-Netto'? -->
 |first4=N. |last4=De Noblet-Ducoudré
 |first5=R. |last5=Houghton
 |first6=J. |last6=House
 |first7=K. |last7=Kitajima
 |first8=C. |last8=Lennard
 |first9=A. |last9=Popp
 |first10=A. |last10=Sirin
 |first11=R. |last11=Sukumar
 |first12=L. |last12=Verchot
 |year=2019
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019}}
 |pages=131–247
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200204 -->
 |chapter=Chapter 5: Food Security
 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/11/08_Chapter-5.pdf
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=C. |last1=Mbow
 |first2=C. |last2=Rosenzweig
 |first3=L. G. |last3=Barioni
 |first4=T. |last4=Benton
 |first5=M. |last5=Herrero
 |first6=M. V. |last6=Krishnapillai
 |first7=E. |last7=Liwenga
 |first8=P. |last8=Pradhan
 |first9=M. G. |last9=Rivera-Ferre
 |first10=T. |last10=Sapkota
 |first11=F. N. |last11=Tubiello
 |first12=Y. |last12=Xu
 |year=2019
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019}}
 |pages=437–550
}}

<!-- =========SROCC ============================ -->
'''Special Report: The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate'''
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SROCC|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200202 -->
 |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
 |year=2019
 |display-editors=4
 |editor-first1=H.-O. |editor-last1=Pörtner
 |editor-first2=D. C. |editor-last2=Roberts
 |editor-first3=V. |editor-last3=Masson-Delmotte
 |editor-first4=P. |editor-last4=Zhai
 |editor-first5=M. |editor-last5=Tignor
 |editor-first6=E. |editor-last6=Poloczanska
 |editor-first7=K. |editor-last7=Mintenbeck
 |editor-first8=A. |editor-last8=Alegría
 |editor-first9=M. |editor-last9=Nicolai
 |editor-first10=A. |editor-last10=Okem
 |editor-first11=J. |editor-last11=Petzold
 |editor-first12=B. |editor-last12=Rama
 |editor-first13=N. |editor-last13=Weyer
 |title=IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate
 |publisher=In press
 |isbn=<!-- Not yet assigned -->
 |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/12/SROCC_FullReport_FINAL.pdf
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200202 -->
 |chapter=Summary for Policymakers
 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/03_SROCC_SPM_FINAL.pdf
 |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
 |year=2019
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019}}
 |pages=3–35
}}
** {{Cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SROCC Ch3|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200202 -->
 |chapter=Chapter 3: Polar Regions
 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/07_SROCC_Ch03_FINAL.pdf
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=M. |last1=Meredith
 |first2=M. |last2=Sommerkorn
 |first3=S. |last3=Cassotta
 |first4=C. |last4=Derksen
 |first5=A. |last5=Ekaykin
 |first6=A. |last6=Hollowed
 |first7=G. |last7=Kofinas
 |first8=A. |last8=Mackintosh
 |first9=J. |last9=Melbourne-Thomas
 |first10=M. M. C. |last10=Muelbert
 |first11=G. |last11=Ottersen
 |first12=H. |last12=Pritchard
 |first13=E. A. G. |last13=Schuur
 |year= 2019
 |title= {{Harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019}}
 |pages= 203–320
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SROCC Ch4|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200202 -->
 |chapter=Chapter 4: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities
 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/08_SROCC_Ch04_FINAL.pdf
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=M. |last1=Oppenheimer
 |first2=B. |last2=Glavovic
 |first3=J. |last3=Hinkel
 |first4=R. |last4=van de Wal
 |first5=A. K. |last5=Magnan
 |first6=A. |last6=Abd-Elgawad
 |first7=R. |last7=Cai
 |first8=M. |last8=Cifuentes-Jara
 |first9=R. M. |last9=Deconto
 |first10=T. |last10=Ghosh
 |first11=J. |last11=Hay
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 |first13=B. |last13=Marzeion
 |first14=B. |last14=Meyssignac
 |first15=Z. |last15=Sebesvari
 |year=2019
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019}}
 |pages=321–445
}}
<!-- ## -->
** {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019}} <!-- ipcc:20200202 -->
 |chapter=Chapter 5: Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities
 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/09_SROCC_Ch05_FINAL.pdf
 |display-authors=4
 |first1=N. L. |last1=Bindoff
 |first2=W. W. L. |last2=Cheung
 |first3=J. G. |last3=Kairo
 |first4=J. |last4=Arístegui
 |first5=V. A. |last5=Guinder
 |first6=R. |last6=Hallberg
 |first7=N. J. M. |last7=Hilmi
 |first8=N. |last8=Jiao
 |first9=Md S. |last9=Karim
 |first10=L. |last10=Levin
 |first11=S. |last11=O'Donoghue
 |first12=S. R. |last12=Purca Cuicapusa
 |first13=B. |last13=Rinkevich
 |first14=T. |last14=Suga
 |first15=A. |last15=Tagliabue
 |first16=P. |last16=Williamson
 |year=2019
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019}}
 |pages=447–587
}}

'''Sixth Assessment Report'''
* {{Cite book  |ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1|2021}}
 |author= IPCC |author-link= IPCC
 |year= 2021
 |title= Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis
 |series= Contribution of Working Group I to the [[IPCC Sixth Assessment Report|Sixth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
 |display-editors= 4
 |editor1-first=V. |editor1-last=Masson-Delmotte
 |editor2-first=P. |editor2-last=Zhai
 |editor3-first=A. |editor3-last=Pirani
 |editor4-first=S. L. |editor4-last=Connors
 |editor5-first=C. |editor5-last=Péan
 |editor6-first=S. |editor6-last=Berger
 |editor7-first=N. |editor7-last=Caud
 |editor8-first=Y. |editor8-last=Chen
 |editor9-first=L. |editor9-last=Goldfarb
 |editor10-first=M. I. |editor10-last=Gomis
 |publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]] (In Press)
 |place=Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, US
 |isbn=
 |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf
}}
** {{Cite book  |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2021}}
 |chapter=Summary for Policymakers
 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf
 |author=IPCC |author-link= IPCC
 |year=2021
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1|2021}}
 |pages=
}}
** {{Cite book  |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary|2021}}
 |chapter=Technical Summary
 |last1=Arias |first1=Paola A.
 |last2=Bellouin |first2=Nicolas
 |last3=Coppola |first3=Erika
 |last4=Jones |first4=Richard G.
 |last5=Krinner |first5=Gerhard
 |display-authors=4
 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_TS.pdf
 |year=2021
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1|2021}}
 |pages=
}}
**{{Cite book
|ref= {{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch11|2021}}
|chapter=Chapter 11: Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climate
|last1=Seneviratne |first1=Sonia I.
|last2=Zhang |first2=Xuebin
|last3=Adnan |first3=M.
|last4=Badi |first4=W.
|last5=Dereczynski |first5=Claudine
|last6=Di Luca |first6=Alejandro
|last7=Ghosh |first7=S.
|chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_11.pdf
|display-authors=4
|title= {{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1|2021}}
|year=2021
}}
* {{cite book
|author=IPCC
|ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG2|2022}}
|editor-last1=Pörtner |editor-first1=H.-O.
|editor-last2=Roberts |editor-first2=D.C.
|editor-last3=Tignor |editor-first3=M.
|editor-last4=Poloczanska |editor-first4=E.S.
|editor-last5=Mintenbeck |editor-first5=K.
|editor-last6=Alegría |editor-first6=A.
|editor-last7=Craig |editor-first7=M.
|editor-last8=Langsdorf |editor-first8=S.
|editor-last9=Löschke |editor-first9=S. 
|editor-last10=Möller |editor-first10=V.
|editor-last11=Okem |editor-first11=A.
|editor-last12=Rama  |editor-first12=B.
|display-editors=etal
|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/
|title=Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]
|year=2022}}
* {{cite book
|author=IPCC
|ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG3|2022}}
|editor-last1=Shukla |editor-first1=P.R.
|editor-last2=Skea |editor-first2=J.
|editor-last3=Slade |editor-first3=R.
|editor-last4=Al Khourdajie |editor-first4=A.
|display-editors=etal
|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/
|title=Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]
|year=2022}}
** {{Cite book  |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG3 Summary for Policymakers|2022}}
 |chapter=Summary for Policymakers
 |chapter-url=https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg3/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf
 |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
 |year=2022
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG3|2022}}
 |pages=
}}
* {{cite book
 |author=IPCC |title=IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change &#91;Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (Eds.)&#93;. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland
 |author-link=IPCC
 |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 SYR|2023}}
 |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_FullVolume.pdf
 |editor-last1=Core Writing Team |editor-last2=Lee |editor-first2=H.
 |editor-last3=Romero |editor-first3=J.
 |display-editors=etal
 |publisher=IPCC
 |year=2023
 |location=Geneva, Switzerland
 |isbn=978-92-9169-164-7
 |doi=10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647
|hdl=1885/299630
 |s2cid=260074696
 }}
** {{Cite book  
 |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 SYR SPM|2023}}
 |chapter=Summary for Policymakers
 |chapter-url=https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf
 |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC
 |year=2023
 |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 SYR|2023}}
 |pages=
}}
{{refend}}

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}}
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|USGCRP Climate Science Supplement|2014}}
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* {{cite journal
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* {{cite journal
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* {{cite journal
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{{refend}}

==== Books, reports and legal documents ====
{{refbegin|30em}}
* {{cite web |ref={{harvid|G8+5 Academies|2009}}
 |title=G8+5 Academies' joint statement: Climate change and the transformation of energy technologies for a low carbon future
 |date=May 2009
 |publisher=The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
 |author1=Academia Brasileira de Ciéncias (Brazil)
 |author2=Royal Society of Canada
 |author3=Chinese Academy of Sciences
 |author4=Académie des Sciences (France)
 |author5=Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina (Germany)
 |author6=Indian National Science Academy
 |author7=Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy)
 |author8=Science Council of Japan, Academia Mexicana de Ciencias
 |author9=Academia Mexicana de Ciencias (Mexico)
 |author10=Russian Academy of Sciences
 |author11=Academy of Science of South Africa
 |author12=Royal Society (United Kingdom)
 |author13=National Academy of Sciences (United States of America)
 |url=http://www.nationalacademies.org/includes/G8+5energy-climate09.pdf
 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100215171429/http://www.nationalacademies.org/includes/G8+5energy-climate09.pdf
 |archive-date=15 February 2010
|url-status=dead
 |access-date=5 May 2010
}}
* {{cite book
 |first1=David |last1=Archer
 |author-link=David Archer (scientist)
 |first2=Raymond |last2=Pierrehumbert
 |author-link2=Raymond Pierrehumbert
 |title=The Warming Papers: The Scientific Foundation for the Climate Change Forecast
 |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=sPY9HOfnuS0C&pg=PT10|date=2013|publisher=John Wiley & Sons|isbn=978-1-118-68733-8
}}
* {{cite report |ref={{harvid|International Institute for Sustainable Development|2019}}
 |url=https://www.iisd.org/sites/default/files/publications/fossil-fuel-clean-energy-subsidy-swap.pdf
 |title=Fossil Fuel to Clean Energy Subsidy Swaps
 |last1=Bridle |first1=Richard
 |last2=Sharma |first2=Shruti
 |last3=Mostafa |first3=Mostafa
 |last4=Geddes |first4=Anna
 |date=June 2019
}}
* {{cite web
 |title=The Paris Agreement: Summary. Climate Focus Client Brief on the Paris Agreement III
 |author=Climate Focus
 |date=December 2015
 |access-date=12 April 2019
|url=https://climatefocus.com/sites/default/files/20151228%20COP%2021%20briefing%20FIN.pdf
 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181005005832/https://climatefocus.com/sites/default/files/20151228%20COP%2021%20briefing%20FIN.pdf
 |archive-date=5 October 2018
|url-status=live
}}
* {{cite book
 |last1=Clark |first1=P. U.
 |last2=Weaver |first2=A. J.
 |last3=Brook |first3=E.
 |last4=Cook |first4=E. R.
 |last5=Delworth |first5=T. L.
 |last6=Steffen |first6=K.
 |chapter=Executive Summary
 |title=In: Abrupt Climate Change. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research
 |display-authors=4
 |chapter-url=http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-4/final-report/default.htm
 |date=December 2008
 |publisher=U.S. Geological Survey |location=Reston, VA
 |url-status=dead
 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130504113820/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-4/final-report/default.htm
 |archive-date=4 May 2013
}}
* {{cite report |ref={{harvid|UN Human Development Report|2020}}
 |author =Conceição
 |display-authors=etal
 | year        =2020
 | title       =Human Development Report 2020 The Next Frontier: Human Development and the Anthropocene
 | url         =http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdr2020.pdf
 | publisher   =[[United Nations Development Programme]]
 | access-date =9 January 2021
}}
* {{cite report
 |last1=DeFries |first1=Ruth
 |author-link1=Ruth DeFries
 |last2=Edenhofer |first2=Ottmar
 |last3=Halliday |first3=Alex
 |last4=Heal |first4=Geoffrey
 |display-authors=etal
 |date=September 2019
 |title=The missing economic risks in assessments of climate change impacts
 |publisher=Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science
 |url=https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-missing-economic-risks-in-assessments-of-climate-change-impacts-2.pdf
}}
* Dessler, Andrew E. and Edward A. Parson, eds. ''The science and politics of global climate change: A guide to the debate'' (Cambridge University Press, 2019). 
* {{cite web
 |title=The climate regime from The Hague to Marrakech: Saving or sinking the Kyoto Protocol?
 |last=Dessai |first=Suraje
 |date=2001
 |work=Tyndall Centre Working Paper 12
 |publisher=Tyndall Centre
 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120610013556/http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/sites/default/files/wp12.pdf
 |archive-date=10 June 2012
|url-status=dead
 |url=http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/sites/default/files/wp12.pdf
 |access-date=5 May 2010
}}
* {{cite book
 |last1=Dunlap |first1=Riley E.
 |last2=McCright |first2=Aaron M.
 |editor-last1=Dryzek |editor-first1=John S.
 |editor-first2=Richard B. |editor-last2=Norgaard
 |editor-first3=David |editor-last3=Schlosberg
 |title=The Oxford Handbook of Climate Change and Society
 |publisher=Oxford University Press
 |date=2011
 |pages=144–160
 |chapter=Chapter 10: Organized climate change denial
 |isbn=978-0-19-956660-0}}
* {{cite book
 |last1=Dunlap |first1=Riley E.
 |last2=McCright |first2=Aaron M.
 |editor-last1=Dunlap |editor-first1=Riley E.
 |editor-first2=Robert J. |editor-last2=Brulle
 |title=Climate Change and Society: Sociological Perspectives
 |publisher=Oxford University Press
 |date=2015
 |pages=300–332
 |chapter=Chapter 10: Challenging Climate Change: The Denial Countermovement
 |isbn=978-0199356119}}
* {{cite report |ref={{harvid|European Commission, 28 November|2018}}
 |title=In-depth analysis accompanying the Commission Communication COM(2018) 773: A Clean Planet for all – A European strategic long-term vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy
 |author=European Commission
 |date=28 November 2018
|location=Brussels
 |url=https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/docs/pages/com_2018_733_analysis_in_support_en_0.pdf
 |page=188
}}
* {{cite report
 | last=Flavell | first=Alex
 | title=IOM outlook on migration, environment and climate change
 | publisher=[[International Organization for Migration]] (IOM) | publication-place=Geneva, Switzerland | year=2014
 | url = https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/mecc_outlook.pdf
 | isbn=978-92-9068-703-0 | oclc=913058074}}
* {{cite book
 |title=The Callendar Effect: the life and work of Guy Stewart Callendar (1898–1964)
 |year=2007
 |last=Fleming |first=James Rodger
 |publisher=American Meteorological Society
 |location=Boston
 |isbn=978-1-878220-76-9
}}
* {{cite report  |ref={{harvid|UNDP|2021}}
 |title= Peoples' Climate Vote
 |last1 = Flynn    |first1=C.
 |last2 = Yamasumi   |first2=E.
 |last3 = Fisher     |first3=S.
 |last4 = Snow   |first4=D.
 |last5 = Grant    |first5=Z.
 |last6 = Kirby   |first6=M.
 |last7 = Browning     |first7=P.
 |last8 = Rommerskirchen   |first8=M.
 |last9 = Russell     |first9=I.
 |display-authors= 4
 |publisher= UNDP and University of Oxford
 |date= January 2021
 |url= https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/publications/UNDP-Oxford-Peoples-Climate-Vote-Results.pdf
| access-date=5 August 2021
}}
*{{cite journal | ref= {{harvid|Earth System Science Data|2023}} 
|last1 = Forster   |first1= P. M. 
|last2 = Smith    |first2=C. J.
|last3 = Walsh    |first3=T.
|last4 = Lamb   |first4=W.F.
|last5 = Lamboli   |first5=R.
|last6 = Hauser   |first6=M.
|last7 = Ribes     |first7=A.
|last8 = Rosen   |first8=D.
|last9 = Gillettt   |first9=N.
|last10 = Palmer    |first10=M.D.
|last11 = Rogelj   |first11=J.
|last12 = von Shuckmann    |first12=K.
|last13 = Seneviratne  |first13=S. I.
|last14 = Trewin     |first14=B.
|last15 = Zhang    |first15=X.
|last16 = Allen   |first16=M.
|last17 = Andrew     |first17=R.
|last18 =  Birt   |first18=A.
|last19 = Borger   |first19=A.
|last20= Boyer   |first20=T.
|last21 = Broersma     |first21=J.A.
|last22 = Cheng    |first22=L.
|last23 = Dentener   |first23=F.
|last24 = Freidlingstein     |first24=P.
|last25 =  Gutiérrez   |first25=J.M.
|last26 = Gütschow    |first26=J.
|last27 = Hall   |first27=B.
|last28 = Ishii     |first28=M.
|last29 = Jenkins    |first29=S.
|last30 = Lan   |first30=x.
|last31 = Lee     |first31=J.Y.
|last32 =  Morice   |first32=C.
|last33 = Kadow    |first33=C.
|last34 = Kennedy   |first34=J.
|last35 = Killick     |first35=R.
|last36 = Minx    |first36=J.C.
|last37 = Naik   |first37=V.
|last38 = Peters     |first38=G.P.
|last39 = Pirani   |first39=A.
|last40 = Pongratz    |first40=J.
|last41 = Schleussner   |first41=C.F.
|last42 = Szopa     |first42=S.
|last43 = Thorne    |first43=P.
|last44 = Rohde   |first44=R.
|last45 = Rojas Corradi     |first45=M.
|last46 =  Schumacher   |first46=D.
|last47 = Vose    |first47=R.
|last48 = Zickfeld   |first48=K.
|last49 = Masson-Delmotte     |first49=V.
|last50 = Zhai     |first50=P
|display-authors= 4
|date= June 2023
|title=Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence
|url= https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/2295/2023/essd-15-2295-2023.pdf
|journal= Earth System Science Data
|volume = 15 |issue = 6 |pages = 2295–2327 |doi= 10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023
|bibcode = 2023ESSD...15.2295F |access-date= 25 October 2023
|doi-access = free }}
* {{cite report
 |author=Global Methane Initiative
 |title=Global Methane Emissions and Mitigation Opportunities
 |url=https://www.globalmethane.org/documents/gmi-mitigation-factsheet.pdf
 |date=2020
 |publisher=Global Methane Initiative
}}
* {{cite book
 |title=Shock Waves : Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development
 |date=2016
 |isbn=978-1-4648-0674-2
 |doi=10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5
 |last1=Hallegatte |first1=Stephane
 |last2=Bangalore |first2=Mook
 |last3=Bonzanigo |first3=Laura
 |last4=Fay |first4=Marianne
 |last5=Kane |first5=Tamaro
 |last6=Narloch |first6=Ulf
 |last7=Rozenberg |first7=Julie
 |last8=Treguer |first8=David
 |last9=Vogt-Schilb |first9=Adrien
 |display-authors=4
 |location=Washington, D.C.
 |publisher=World Bank
 |hdl=10986/22787
 |url=https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/22787/9781464806735.pdf?sequence=13&isAllowed=y
}}
* {{cite book
 |title=Climate Change: Observed Impacts on Planet Earth
 |last=Haywood |first=Jim
 |year=2016
 |publisher=Elsevier
 |isbn=978-0-444-63524-2
 |editor-last=Letcher |editor-first=Trevor M.
 |chapter=Chapter 27 – Atmospheric Aerosols and Their Role in Climate Change
}}
* {{Cite report |ref={{harvid|IEA|2020b}}
| author= IEA
| date= December 2020
| title= Energy Efficiency 2020
|chapter=COVID-19 and energy efficiency
|chapter-url= https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-efficiency-2020/covid-19-and-energy-efficiency#abstract
| location= Paris, France
| access-date=6 April 2021
}}
* {{Cite report
| author= IEA
| date= October 2021
| title= Net Zero By 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector
| url= https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/deebef5d-0c34-4539-9d0c-10b13d840027/NetZeroby2050-ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySector_CORR.pdf
| location= Paris, France
| access-date=4 April 2022
}}
*{{Cite report   | ref={{harvid|IEA World Energy Outlook 2023}} 
| author= IEA
| date= October 2023
| title=World Energy Outlook 2023
| url= https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/26ca51d0-4a42-4649-a7c0-552d75ddf9b2/WorldEnergyOutlook2023.pdf
| location= Paris, France
| access-date=25 October 2021
}}
* {{cite book
 |title=Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation: A Review of the Literature
 |url=https://www.elibrary.imf.org/doc/IMF001/28337-9781513511955/28337-9781513511955/Other_formats/Source_PDF/28337-9781513512938.pdf
 |isbn=978-1-5135-1195-5
 |last1=Krogstrup |first1=Signe
 |last2=Oman |first2=William
 |series=IMF working papers
 |date=4 September 2019
|volume=19
 |issue=185
 |doi=10.5089/9781513511955.001
 |s2cid=203245445
 |issn=1018-5941
}}
* {{cite report  |ref={{harvid|Yale|2021}}
 |title= International Public Opinion on Climate Change
 |last1 = Leiserowitz    |first1=A.
 |last2 = Carman   |first2=J.
 |last3 = Buttermore     |first3=N.
 |last4 =  Wang   |first4=X.
 |last5 = Rosenthal    |first5=S.
 |last6 = Marlon   |first6=J.
 |last7 = Mulcahy     |first7=K.
 |display-authors= 4
 |publisher= Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and Facebook Data for Good
 |year= 2021
 |location= New Haven, CT
 |url= https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/international-climate-opinion-february-2021d.pdf
| access-date=5 August 2021
}}
* {{Cite book|title=Future Energy: Improved, Sustainable and Clean Options for our Planet |edition=Third |publisher=[[Elsevier]] |year=2020|isbn=978-0-08-102886-5 |editor-last=Letcher|editor-first=Trevor M.}}
* {{cite book
 |last1=Meinshausen |first1=Malte
 |chapter=Implications of the Developed Scenarios for Climate Change
 |date=2019
 |title=Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals: Global and Regional 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios with Non-energy GHG Pathways for +1.5&nbsp;°C and +2&nbsp;°C
 |pages=459–469
 |editor-last=Teske |editor-first=Sven
 |publisher=Springer International Publishing
 |doi=10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_12 |doi-access=free
 |isbn=978-3-030-05843-2
 |s2cid=133868222
 |url=https://apo.org.au/node/235336
 }}
* {{cite report|ref={{harvid|ICCT|2019}}
 |first1=J. |last1=Miller
 |first2=L. |last2=Du
 |first3=D. |last3=Kodjak
 |title=Impacts of World-Class Vehicle Efficiency and Emissions Regulations in Select G20 Countries
 |url=https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_G20-briefing-paper_Jan2017_vF.pdf
 |publisher=The International Council on Clean Transportation
 |location=Washington, D.C.
 |year=2017
}}
* {{cite book
 |title=Copenhagen 2009: Failure or final wake-up call for our leaders? EV 49
 |last=Müller |first=Benito
 |date=February 2010
 |publisher=[[Oxford Institute for Energy Studies]]
 |isbn=978-1-907555-04-6
 |page=i
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|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170710081944/https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/EV49-Copenhagen2009Failureorfinalwake-upcallforourleaders-BenitoMuller-2010.pdf
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}}
* {{cite report
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* {{cite report
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* {{cite book
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* {{cite web |ref={{harvid|NOAA|2017}}
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* {{cite book
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* {{cite book
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* {{Cite report   | ref= {{harvid|Pew|2015}}
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* {{cite book
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}}
* {{cite book
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* {{cite book
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}}
* {{cite report |ref={{harvid|NREL|2017}}
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}}
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|Teske, ed.|2019}}
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* {{cite book
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* {{cite report
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* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|United Nations Environment Programme|2019}}
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* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|United Nations Environment Programme|2021}}
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* {{cite book|author = UNEP |year= 2018|title=The Adaptation Gap Report 2018|location=Nairobi, Kenya|url =https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report|isbn=978-92-807-3728-8|publisher = United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)}}
* {{cite conference
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}}
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* {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Kyoto Protocol|1997}}
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* {{cite conference |ref={{harvid|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009}}
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}}
<!-- ## -->
* {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Paris Agreement|2015}}
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}}
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* {{cite report |ref={{harvid|UN NDC Synthesis Report|2021}}
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| title       = Nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement Synthesis report by the secretariat
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}}
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* {{cite web |ref={{harvid|UNHCR|2011}}
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}}
* {{cite report
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}}
* {{cite journal
 |last1=Van Oldenborgh |first1=Geert-Jan
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 |last4=Vautard |first4=Robert
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 |website=Semantic Scholar
 |s2cid=199454488 |title=Human contribution to the record-breaking June 2019 heat wave in France
 }}
* {{cite book
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 |first=Spencer
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* {{cite book
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** {{citation|ref={{harvid|Weart "The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect"}} |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
 |last =Weart |first=Spencer
 |date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. -->
 |title=The Discovery of Global Warming
 |chapter=The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect
 |chapter-url=http://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm
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|publisher=American Institute of Physics
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** {{citation|ref=none |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
 |last =Weart |first=Spencer
 |date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. -->
 |title=The Discovery of Global Warming
 |chapter=The Public and Climate Change
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|publisher =American Institute of Physics
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}}
*** {{citation|ref={{harvid|Weart "Suspicions of a Human-Caused Greenhouse (1956–1969)"}} |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
 |last =Weart |first=Spencer
 |date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. -->
 |title=The Discovery of Global Warming
 |chapter=The Public and Climate Change: Suspicions of a Human-Caused Greenhouse (1956–1969)
 |chapter-url=http://history.aip.org/climate/public.htm#S2
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|publisher =American Institute of Physics
 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191711/http://history.aip.org/climate/public.htm#S2
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}}
** {{citation|ref={{harvid|Weart "The Public and Climate Change (since 1980)"}} |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
 |last1=Weart |first1=Spencer
 |date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. -->
 |title=The Discovery of Global warming
 |chapter=The Public and Climate Change (cont.&nbsp;– since 1980)
 |chapter-url=https://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm
 |access-date=19 June 2020
|publisher =American Institute of Physics
 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191659/http://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm
 |archive-date=11 November 2016
|url-status=live
}}
*** {{citation|ref={{harvid|Weart "The Public and Climate Change: The Summer of 1988"}} |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. -->
 |first=Spencer |last=Weart
 |date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. -->
 |title=The Discovery of Global Warming
 |chapter=The Public and Climate Change: The Summer of 1988
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|publisher=American Institute of Physics
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}}
* {{cite report|ref={{harvid|World Bank, June|2019}}
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|hdl=10986/29687
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* {{cite report |ref={{harvid|WHO|2014}}
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}}
* {{Cite report |ref={{harvid|WHO|2016}}
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* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|WHO|2018}}
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}}
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|WMO|2021}}
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}}
* {{cite book |ref={{harvid|World Resources Institute, December|2019}}
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}}
{{refend}}

==== Non-technical sources ====
{{refbegin|30em}}
* ''[[Associated Press]]''
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|website=AP Style Blog
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* ''[[BBC]]''
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|BBC, 1 May|2019}}
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|title=UK Parliament declares climate change emergency
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}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|BBC Science Focus Magazine, 3 February|2020}}
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* ''[[Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists]]''
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* ''[[Carbon Brief]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 4 Jan|2017}}
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** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018}}
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}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 19 April|2018}}
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|last1=Hausfather |first1=Zeke
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}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 8 October|2018}}
 |date=8 October 2018
|last1=Hausfather |first1=Zeke
 |title=Analysis: Why the IPCC 1.5C report expanded the carbon budget
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 |access-date=28 July 2020|website=Carbon Brief}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 7 January|2020}}
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 |last1=Dunne |first1=Daisy |last2=Gabbatiss |first2=Josh |last3=Mcsweeny |first3=Robert
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|website=Carbon Brief|access-date=11 January 2020}}
* ''[[Climate.gov]]''
**{{Cite web  |ref={{harvid|Climate.gov, 23 June|2022}}
|last= Lindsey
|first= Rebecca
|title= Climate Change: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
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|date= 23 June 2022
|access-date=7 May 2023
}}
* ''[[Deutsche Welle]]''
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|Deutsche Welle, 22 June|2019}}
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* ''[[EPA]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|EPA|2016}}
 |title=Myths vs. Facts: Denial of Petitions for Reconsideration of the Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act
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|url=https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/myths-vs-facts-denial-petitions-reconsideration-endangerment-and-cause-or-contribute
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** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|EPA|2019}}
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|access-date=8 August 2020
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200218125157/https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data
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** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|EPA|2020}}
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 |title=Overview of Greenhouse Gases
 |author=US EPA
 |date=15 September 2020
|access-date=15 September 2020
}}
* ''[[EUobserver]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|EUobserver, 20 December|2009}}
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|title=Copenhagen failure 'disappointing', 'shameful'
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|url=https://euobserver.com/environment/29181
 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190412092312/https://euobserver.com/environment/29181
 |archive-date=12 April 2019
|url-status=live}}
* ''[[European Parliament]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|European Parliament, February|2020}}
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 |url=https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/70/renewable-energy
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* ''[[The Guardian]]''<!--
 |issn=0261-3077 - not needed, nor location.
The parameters for harvid should match the first two parameters
     used in harvnb for the short-cite in the text. -->
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|The Guardian, 26 January|2015}}
 |last1=Nuccitelli |first1=Dana
 |date=26 January 2015
|title=Climate change could impact the poor much more than previously thought
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 |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/jan/26/climate-change-could-impact-poor-much-more-than-previously-thought
 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161228200446/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/jan/26/climate-change-could-impact-poor-much-more-than-previously-thought
 |archive-date=28 December 2016
|url-status=live
}}
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|The Guardian, 19 March|2019}}
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|title=School climate strikes: 1.4 million people took part, say campaigners
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|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190320122303/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/19/school-climate-strikes-more-than-1-million-took-part-say-campaigners-greta-thunberg
 |archive-date=20 March 2019|url-status=live
}}
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|The Guardian, 28 November|2019}}
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 |title='Our house is on fire': EU parliament declares climate emergency
 |last=Rankin |first=Jennifer
 |date=28 November 2019
|work=The Guardian
 |access-date=28 November 2019
|issn=0261-3077}}
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|The Guardian, 19 February|2020}}
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 |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/19/oil-gas-industry-far-worse-climate-impact-than-thought-fossil-fuels-methane
 |newspaper=The Guardian
}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|The Guardian, 6 April|2020}}
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|title=New renewable energy capacity hit record levels in 2019
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 |access-date=25 May 2020
}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|The Guardian, 28 October|2020}}
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|last=McCurry
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 |access-date=6 December 2020
|work=The Guardian}}

* ''[[International Energy Agency]]''
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* ''[[NASA]]''
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}}
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|NASA, 12 September|2018}}
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}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|NASA, 5 December|2008}}
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** {{cite web
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}}
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|NASA, 7 July|2020}}
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* ''[[National Conference of State Legislators]]''
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* ''[[National Geographic]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|National Geographic, 13 August|2019}}
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 |archive-url=https://archive.today/20190814144104/https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/arctic-permafrost-is-thawing-it-could-speed-up-climate-change-feature/
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|title=Arctic permafrost is thawing fast. That affects us all.
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|website=National Geographic
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}}
* ''[[National Science Digital Library]]''
** {{cite web
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* ''[[Natural Resources Defense Council]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Natural Resources Defense Council, 29 September|2017}}
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}}
* ''[[Nature (journal)|Nature]]''
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* ''[[The New York Times]]''
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|The New York Times, 25 May|2015}}
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}}
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** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|NOAA, 10 July|2011}}
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** {{cite web
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* ''[[Our World in Data]]''
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}}
** {{cite web
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** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Our World in Data-Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?}}
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** {{cite web   | ref= {{harvid|Pew|2020}}
| author= Pew Research Center
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| title= Many globally are as concerned about climate change as about the spread of infectious diseases
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| access-date=19 August 2021
}}
* ''[[Politico]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Politico, 11 December|2019}}
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|last3=Gurzu
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** {{cite AV media |ref={{harvid|RIVM|2016}}
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** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|Salon, 25 September|2019}}
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 |title=How leaders planned to avert climate catastrophe at the UN (while Trump hung out in the basement)
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|website=Salon

 |access-date=20 November 2019}}
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** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|Gleick, 7 January|2017}}
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|access-date=2 April 2020
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}}
* ''[[Scientific American]]''
** {{cite magazine |ref={{harvid|Scientific American, 29 April|2014}}
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* ''[[Smithsonian (magazine)|Smithsonian]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Smithsonian, 26 June|2016}}
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|date=29 June 2016}}

* ''The Sustainability Consortium''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|The Sustainability Consortium, 13 September|2018}}
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}}
* ''[[UNFCCC]]''
** {{cite web
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|url-status=live
}}
** {{cite web
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 |title=What is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?
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}}
* ''[[Union of Concerned Scientists]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Union of Concerned Scientists, 8 January|2017}}
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}}
* ''[[Vice (website)|Vice]]''
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|Vice, 2 May|2019}}
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 |access-date=30 June 2019 |date=2 May 2019 }}
* ''[[The Verge]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|The Verge, 27 December|2019}}
 |title=2019 was the year of 'climate emergency' declarations
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|website=The Verge
 |url=https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/27/21038949/climate-change-2019-emergency-declaration
 |access-date=28 March 2020}}
* ''[[Vox (website)|Vox]]''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Vox, 20 September|2019}}
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}}
* ''World Health Organization''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|WHO, Nov|2015}}
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|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210103002854/https://www.who.int/globalchange/global-campaign/cop21/en/
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}}
* ''[[World Resources Institute]]''
** {{cite news |ref={{harvid|World Resources Institute, 31 March|2021}}
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 |archive-date=1 April 2021
|url-status=live }} ● ''Mongabay'' graphing WRI data from {{cite web
 |title=Forest Loss / How much tree cover is lost globally each year?
 |url=https://research.wri.org/gfr/forest-extent-indicators/forest-loss
 |website=research.WRI.org
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 |archive-date=2 August 2023
|date=January 2021
 |url-status=live}}
** {{cite journal |ref={{harvid|World Resources Institute, 8 August|2019}}
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|last1=Levin |first1=Kelly
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}}
** {{cite journal |ref={{harvid|World Resources Institute, 8 December|2019}}
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}}
* ''[[Yale]] Climate Connections''
** {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Yale Climate Connections, 2 November|2010}}
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|url=https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/11/communicating-with-american-public
 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190207130823/https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/11/communicating-with-american-public/
 |archive-date=7 February 2019
|url-status=live
}}
{{refend}}

== External links ==
{{Spoken Wikipedia|date=30 October 2021|En-Climate_change-article.ogg}}
{{Scholia}}
{{Library resources box
|by=no
|onlinebooks=no
|others=yes
|lcheading=Climate change}}
* [https://www.ipcc.ch/ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]
* [http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-guide UK Met Office: Climate Guide] 
* [https://www.noaa.gov/climate NOAA Climate website] – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the United States

{{Subject bar|wikt=climate change|b=Climate Change|q=Climate change|commons=Category:Climate change|n=Category:Climate change|v=Climate change|s=Climate change}}
{{Climate change|state=expanded}}
{{Human impact on the environment}}
{{Earth}}
{{Authority control|state=expanded}}

[[Category:Climate change| ]]
[[Category:Anthropocene]]
[[Category:Articles containing video clips]]
[[Category:History of climate variability and change]]
[[Category:Global environmental issues]]
[[Category:Human impact on the environment]]
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