Английская Википедия:2004 United States presidential election in Arizona

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Main Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Arizona sidebar The 2004 United States presidential election in Arizona took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Arizona was won by incumbent George W. Bush by 10.5%. Prior to the election, 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. Neither major party tickets campaigned here in the fall election. Arizona hosted the third presidential debate on October 13, 2004, in the city of Tempe.

Шаблон:As of, this is the last time Arizona was won by a double-digit margin of victory. This was the first election in which any candidate won more than a million votes as well as in which Maricopa County cast more than a million ballots.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Шаблон:USRaceRating
Associated Press Шаблон:USRaceRating
CNN Шаблон:USRaceRating
Cook Political Report Шаблон:USRaceRating
Newsweek Шаблон:USRaceRating
New York Times Шаблон:USRaceRating
Rasmussen Reports Шаблон:USRaceRating
Research 2000 Шаблон:USRaceRating
Washington Post Шаблон:USRaceRating
Washington Times Шаблон:USRaceRating
Zogby International Шаблон:USRaceRating
Washington Dispatch Шаблон:USRaceRating

Polling

Шаблон:Main

Throughout several polls taken in the state in 2004, just one showed Kerry leading. The final 3 pre-election polls showed that Bush was leading with 51% to Kerry's 43%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $3,196,692.[3] Kerry raised $1,525,930.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Analysis

The exit polls showed that Bush was going to be the clear winner of the state, based on the fact that Bush won among both genders. A major key factor was how 55% of the people thought the state economy was good, and 70% of those people voted for Bush. Also, 55% of the state approved of Bush.[7]

The key to Bush's victory was winning the highly populated Maricopa County with almost 57%. However, Kerry did win portions of the state such as Arizona's 4th congressional district and Arizona's 7th congressional district and 4 counties. 50% of the voting age population came out to vote.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Arizona[8][9][10]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 1,104,294 54.77% 10
Democratic John Kerry 893,524 44.32% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 11,856 0.59% 0
Write In Write-in candidate 3,517 0.17% 0
Write In Ralph Nader 2,773 0.14% 0
Write In David Cobb 138 0.01% 0
Totals 2,012,585 100.00% 10
Voter turnout (voting age) 49.6%

Results by county

County George W. Bush[11]
Republican
John Kerry[11]
Democratic
Michael Badnarik[11]
Libertarian
Various candidates[11]
Write-ins
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # %
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Apache Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 8,384 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 34.65% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 15,658 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 64.71% Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 142 Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 0.59% Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 14 Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 0.06% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| −7,274 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| −30.06% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 24,198
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Cochise Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 26,556 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 59.55% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 17,514 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 39.27% Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 318 Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 0.71% Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 207 Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 0.46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 9,042 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 20.28% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 44,595
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Coconino Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 22,526 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 43.00% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 29,243 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 55.82% Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 377 Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 0.72% Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 245 Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 0.47% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| −6,717 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| −12.82% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 52,391
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Gila Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 12,343 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 59.12% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 8,314 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 39.82% Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 155 Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 0.74% Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 65 Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 0.31% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 4,029 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 19.30% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 20,877
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Graham Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 7,467 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 69.65% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 3,185 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 29.71% Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 66 Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 0.62% Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 2 Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 0.02% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 4,282 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 39.94% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 10,720
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Greenlee Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 1,899 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 61.92% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 1,146 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 37.37% Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 19 Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 0.62% Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 3 Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 0.10% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 753 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 24.55% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 3,067
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|La Paz Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 3,158 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 62.42% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 1,849 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 36.55% Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 45 Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 0.89% Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 7 Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 0.14% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 1,309 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 25.87% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 5,059
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Maricopa Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 679,455 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 56.86% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 504,849 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 42.25% Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 6,776 Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 0.57% Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 3,881 Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 0.32% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 174,606 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 14.61% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 1,194,961
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Mohave Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 36,794 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 63.53% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 20,503 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 35.40% Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 393 Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 0.68% Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 225 Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 0.39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 16,291 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 28.13% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 57,915
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Navajo Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 17,277 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 53.32% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 14,815 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 45.72% Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 224 Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 0.69% Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 88 Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 0.27% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 2,462 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 7.60% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 32,404
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Pima Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 171,109 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 46.56% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 193,128 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 52.55% Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 2,109 Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 0.57% Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 1,146 Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 0.31% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| −22,019 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| −5.99% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 367,492
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Pinal Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 37,006 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 57.27% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 27,252 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 42.17% Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 333 Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 0.52% Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 31 Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 0.05% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 9,754 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 15.10% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 64,622
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Santa Cruz Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 4,668 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 39.93% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 6,909 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 59.11% Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 80 Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 0.68% Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 32 Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 0.27% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| −2,241 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| −19.18% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 11,689
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Yavapai Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 53,468 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 61.05% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 33,127 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 37.82% Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 612 Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 0.70% Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 376 Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 0.43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 20,341 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 23.23% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 87,583
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Yuma Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 22,184 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 57.58% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 16,032 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 41.61% Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 207 Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian| 0.54% Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 106 Шаблон:Party shading/Others| 0.28% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 6,152 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 15.97% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 38,529
Totals 1,104,294 54.77% 893,524 44.32% 11,856 0.59% 6,428 0.32% 210,770 10.45% 2,016,102

Results by congressional district

Bush won six of eight congressional districts.[12]

District Bush Kerry Representative
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 54% 46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Rick Renzi
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 61% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Trent Franks
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 58% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|John Shadegg
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 38% 62% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Ed Pastor
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 54% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|J. D. Hayworth
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 64% 35% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Jeff Flake
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 43% 57% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Raul Grijalva
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 53% 46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Jim Kolbe

Electors

Шаблон:Main

Technically the voters of Arizona cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arizona is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from this state. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.[13]

  1. Linda Barber
  2. Malcolm Barrett
  3. Jim Click
  4. Cynthia J. Collins
  5. Webb Crockett
  6. Elizabeth Wilkinson Fannin
  7. Ross Farnsworth
  8. Ira A. Fulton
  9. Bernice C. Roberts
  10. Phillip Townsend

Notes

Шаблон:Notelist

References

Шаблон:Reflist

Шаблон:State results of the 2004 U.S. presidential election Шаблон:Arizona elections Шаблон:2004 United States elections Шаблон:United States elections