Английская Википедия:2010 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsKY The 2010 United States Senate election in Kentucky took place on November 2, 2010, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primaries for each respective party were held on May 18, 2010.[1] Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Jim Bunning decided to retire instead of seeking a third term. Republican nominee Rand Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of Congressman Ron Paul, won the open seat against Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway.[2]

Background

In early 2009, incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Jim Bunning, who won reelection by a surprisingly narrow margin in 2004, said he would need to raise $10 million for his re-election campaign.[3] However, NRSC chairman John Cornyn pressured Bunning to retire due to concerns that he could lose a reelection bid.[4] In July 2009, Bunning announced he would not run for re-election.[5]

In February 2009, Senator Bunning stated that another justice could soon be appointed to the United States Supreme Court because Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who had been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, would be dead within nine months,[6] creating a significant amount of controversy, which resulted in an apology from Bunning.[7] Ginsburg would not die until 2020—outliving Bunning, who would die in 2017.

In late May 2009, Bunning called fellow Kentucky Senator and Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell a "control freak" and suggested that he did not need McConnell's endorsement.[8] He also challenged Lexington Herald-Leader editor John Stamper to an arm wrestling match after Stamper questioned whether Bunning was "fit to serve."[8]

Additionally, Bunning created further controversy in February 2010 when he objected to a proposal of unanimous consent for an extension of unemployment insurance, COBRA, and other federal programs, citing that this extension was not pay-as-you-go. He proposed an amendment which sought to find the funds to pay for the bill from the Stimulus Bill of 2009, and declared that he supported the unemployed, but that a bill such as this only added to the growing deficit and that it should be paid for immediately.[9] Senator Bob Corker joined Bunning, while other senators worked to cease his objections. When Senator Jeff Merkley urged him to drop his objections to vote on a 30-day extension of benefits, Bunning responded "tough shit."[10][11] Bunning finally agreed to end his objection to the bill in exchange for a vote on his amendment to pay for the package. It failed 53–43 on a procedural vote.[12] The extension of unemployment benefits then passed by a vote of 78–19.[13]

Republican primary

Candidates

Campaign

On August 20, 2009, a grassroots-planned moneybomb raised $433,509 for Rand Paul's campaign in a 24-hour period.[14] According to Paul,[15] this set a new record in Kentucky's political fundraising history (for a 24-hour period). Republican Liberty Caucus endorsed Paul in November 2009.[16] On December 22, 2009, Rand Paul picked up the endorsement of Concerned Women for America.[17] Paul embraced the Tea Party movement, and promoted "small government principles" one day after he officially entered the race for Kentucky's open seat.[18] Paul ran a strong anti-Washington message. One commercial tied Grayson as part of the problem, noting that Grayson raised money with AIG executives in Washington. In another advertisement, Paul had also attacked Grayson as a career politician and a liar.[19]

Grayson created a new website that attacked Paul for his "strange ideas," such as his opposition of the PATRIOT Act, and what Grayson alleged to be his support of closing down Guantanamo Bay and saying that Iran was not a threat. He also attacked Paul for being a Duke University fan.Шаблон:Citation needed He sent out another TV ad and web video that stirred controversy by making the case that Paul believes that foreign policy decisions made prior to September 11, 2001, are partially to blame for the attacks.[20] Paul immediately responded by launching a statewide television ad in which he expresses his "outrage at terrorists who killed 3,000 innocents" before accusing Grayson of a "lie" and a "shameful" tactic.[21] Grayson accused the Fox News Channel of favoring Paul over him.[22]

On May 18, 2010, Paul won the Republican nomination.[2] After conceding the election to Paul, Grayson said, "It's time to put all differences aside, unite behind Dr. Paul, he needs our help and I for one stand ready to serve".[23]

Endorsements

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Polling

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Trey
Grayson
Rand
Paul
Other Undecided
Survey USA (report) August 15–17, 2009 516 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 37% 26% 13% 17%
Research 2000 (report) (archive) August 31 – September 2, 2009 600 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 40% 25% 18% 17%
Survey USA (report) October 30 – November 2, 2009 448 ± 4.7% 32% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 35% 10% 18%
Public Policy Polling (reportШаблон:Dead linkШаблон:Cbignore) December 18–21, 2009 478 ± 4.5% 25% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 44% 32%
Magellan Strategies (reportШаблон:Dead linkШаблон:Cbignore) February 18, 2010 560 ± 4.1% 23% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 44% 33%
Survey USA (report) March 1–3, 2010 454 ± 4.7% 27% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 42% 11% 19%
Research 2000 (report) (archive) March 15–17, 2010 600 ± 5.0% 28% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 40% 14% 18%
Survey USA (report) April 9–11, 2010 446 ± 4.7% 30% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 45% 5% 19%
Public Policy Polling (report) May 1–2, 2010 363 ± 5.1% 28% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 46% 4% 21%
Research 2000 (report Шаблон:Webarchive) May 2–4, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 32% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 44% 7% 17%
Magellan Strategies (report) (archive) May 4, 2010 611 ± 3.9% 28% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 43% 8% 21%
Survey USA (reportШаблон:Registration required) May 9–11, 2010 440 ± 4.8% 33% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 49% 7% 11%
Research 2000 (report) (archive) May 10–12, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 35% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 45% 7% 13%
Public Policy Polling (report) May 15–16, 2010 1,065 ± 3.0% 34% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 52% 7% 7%
Magellan Strategies (report) (archive) May 16, 2010 809 ± 3.4% 30% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 55% 8% 7%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Файл:2010KentuckyRepSenatePrimary.jpg
Counties carried by Paul are in Yellow; counties carried by Grayson are in green.

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

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Democratic primary

Candidates

Campaign

Mongiardo announced that he had received the endorsement of Governor Steve Beshear[53] and raised $420,000.[54]

Due to Conway's large margin of victory in his statewide campaign for attorney general, his fundraising ability, and the age difference between Conway and Bunning, Conway was described as a viable candidate.[55]

Both candidates were against the Senate version of the Affordable Care Act. When Mongiardo said that "it was time to start over," he was criticized by Conway and labeled "Dr. No."[56] Both candidates supported the final version.[57][58] Attorney General Conway refused to join a lawsuit claiming that health care reform is unconstitutional.[59]

On May 18, 2010, Conway won the Democratic nomination.[60]

Endorsements

Шаблон:Hidden begin

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Polling

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Jack
Conway
Daniel
Mongiardo
Other Undecided
Garin-Hart-Yang (reportШаблон:Dead linkШаблон:Cbignore) May 12–13, 2009 336 ± 5.3% 28% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 43% 29%
Survey USA (report) August 15–17, 2009 647 ± 3.9% 31% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 39% 9% 14%
Research 2000 (report) (archive) August 31 – September 2, 2009 600 ± 4.0% 30% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 37% 15% 18%
Survey USA (report) October 30 – November 2, 2009 602 ± 4.1% 28% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 39% 10% 16%
Public Policy Polling (reportШаблон:Dead linkШаблон:Cbignore) December 22, 2009 557 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 37% 33% 30%
Survey USA (report) March 1–3, 2010 590 ± 4.1% 27% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 45% 9% 19%
Research 2000 (report) (archive) March 15–17, 2010 600 ± 5.0% 31% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 47% 8% 14%
Survey USA (report) April 9–11, 2010 659 ± 4.7% 32% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 35% 11% 21%
Public Policy Polling (report) May 1–2, 2010 459 ± 4.6% 27% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 36% 10% 27%
Research 2000 (report Шаблон:Webarchive) May 2–4, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 32% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 39% 12% 17%
Survey USA (reportШаблон:Registration required) May 9–11, 2010 662 ± 3.9% 37% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 38% 13% 12%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 39% 10% 15%

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Results

Файл:2010KyDemSenatePrimary.jpg
The county carried by James Buckmaster is in gray. The county carried by Darlene Price is in brown. The counties carried by Dan Mongiardo are in blue. The counties carried by Jack Conway are in yellow.

The primary race was extremely close with Conway narrowly prevailing by just over 4,000 votes. The race remained in doubt for much of the night. Finally with 99% of the vote counted the Associated Press declared Conway the winner. Mongiardo called Conway to concede at 10:08 P.M. EST. Mongiardo congratulated Conway and pledged him his full support for the general election. In terms of the breakdown of the results, Conway ran up margins in Jefferson County home of Louisville, and Fayette County home of Lexington. In terms of more rural counties Mongiardo and Conway split the vote. Conway performed well in central Kentucky, while Mongiardo performed well in coal country in east Kentucky and farm country in western Kentucky. In the end Conway's performance in the states most populated county, Jefferson County proved to be just enough to carry him to victory. The primary race was also notable because both Conway and Mongiardo received more votes than Republican Rand Paul.Шаблон:Citation needed Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

General election

Candidates

Kentucky's ballot access requirements allow Republicans and Democrats to run for office with two signatures, but require minor parties and independents to collect at least 5,000 signatures.[67] The filing deadline for minor party and independent candidates was on August 10, and no candidate filed.[67]

Some speculate that the reason why no minor party or independent candidate filed is because Paul's candidacy helped discourage it. The Libertarian Party of Kentucky held its nominating convention for 2010 elections and failed to nominate a candidate for the U.S. Senate, as no one stepped forward to seek nomination to that office. Despite comments from some observers that Paul espouses libertarian beliefs, the Kentucky Libertarian Party issued an official press release stating "Rand Paul is not a libertarian" and detailing the differences between Paul's beliefs and libertarian principles.[68] Similarly, the Constitution Party of Kentucky avoided the Senate race ostensibly because of Rand Paul's presence in that race and perhaps because of his more minarchist stance than Trey Grayson, especially if the latter had been the nominee.

Billy Ray Wilson, an independent of London, filed as a write-in candidate.[69][70][71]

Campaign

Conway began the race trailing Paul, but as he attacked his opponent's positions on social-welfare and criminal-justice policies, the polls began to tighten. Conway agreed to run an advertisement that linked Paul's policy stances to a college prank in which Paul reportedly demanded that a female classmate worship a bong named "Aqua Buddha." Independent political analysts in Kentucky quickly warned that Conway would regret his decision. The ad's focus on religion led critics, including not just Republicans but also some liberals such as Hardball's Chris Matthews, to charge that Conway was improperly questioning Paul's faith, to which Conway countered that the ad was intended to question Paul's "judgment." Nonetheless, Conway swiftly dropped again in the polls, a decline from which he never recovered. Conway ceased his defense of the commercial after the election, admitting that running it had been a mistake; he claimed that he had done so only reluctantly at the urging of national advisers despite finding it "harsh as mule's breath."[72]

Conway saw one last opportunity before his final debate with Paul. One of Rand Paul's supporters stomped on a MoveOn activist after she approached Paul's vehicle, and a video of the event was later used in a Conway TV commercial.[73][74] Paul and Conway condemned the attack and the supporter was banned from campaign events.[73][75]

The campaign attracted $8.5 million in contributions from outside groups, of which $6 million was spent to help Rand Paul and $2.5 million to help Conway. This money influx was in addition to the money spent by the candidates themselves: $6 million by Paul and $4.7 million by Conway.[76][77]

Paul was endorsed by The Kentucky Enquirer,[78] The Richmond Register,[79] and the Bowling Green Daily News;[80] as well as by the National Federation of Independent Business,[81] Council for Citizens Against Government Waste,[82] National Right to Life,[83] US Chamber of Commerce,[84] National Vietnam and Gulf War Veterans Coalition,[85] Mike Huckabee,[86] and Tony Perkins/FRC Action PAC.[87][88]

Conway was endorsed by the Courier-Journal[89] and the Lexington Herald Leader.[90]

Debates

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Файл:Jack Conway & Rand Paul (5074576800).jpg
Rand Paul and Jack Conway debate, October 2010

There were 5 televised debates between the two candidates. The first debate on October 3, 2010, which was moderated by Chris Wallace, seemed to focus on President Obama's decisions during his 2 years as president. Paul stated, "I think his agenda is wrong for America. I will stand up against President Obama's agenda." Conway responded, "I am a proud Democrat. I'm certainly not going to be on the left of Barack Obama." At the time of the debate, the election's polls indicated the race was a dead heat.[91]

2010 United States Senate election in Kentucky
Шаблон:Abbr Date Host Moderator Link Participants
Шаблон:Colors Participant  Шаблон:Colors Absent  Шаблон:Colors Non-invitee  Шаблон:Colors Invitee  Шаблон:Colors Withdrawn scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"|
Rand Paul Jack Conway
1 May 18, 2010 ???? ???? C-SPAN Шаблон:Yes Шаблон:Yes
2 October 11, 2010 ???? ???? C-SPAN Шаблон:Yes Шаблон:Yes
3 October 17, 2010 ???? ???? C-SPAN Шаблон:Yes Шаблон:Yes
4 October 25, 2010 ???? ???? C-SPAN Шаблон:Yes Шаблон:Yes

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[92] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 1, 2010
Rothenberg[93] Шаблон:USRaceRating October 29, 2010
RealClearPolitics[94] Шаблон:USRaceRating October 19, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[95] Шаблон:USRaceRating October 14, 2010
CQ Politics[96] Шаблон:USRaceRating October 20, 2010
Rasmussen Reports[97] Шаблон:USRaceRating October 29, 2010
The New York Times[98] Шаблон:USRaceRating October 20, 2010

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Rand Paul (R) $6,727,033 $6,068,547 $658,484 $0
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | Jack Conway (D) $5,027,318 $4,370,349 $684,177 $460,794
Source: Federal Election Commission[99]

Polling

Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Rand
Paul (R)
Jack
Conway (D)
Other Undecided
SurveyUSA (report) August 15–17, 2009 1,944 ± 2.3% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 43% 19%
Research 2000 (report) (archive) August 31 – September 2, 2009 600 ± 4.0% 37% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 41% 22%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 30, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 42% 4% 15%
SurveyUSA (report) October 30 – November 2, 2009 1,770 ± 2.4% 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 44% 17%
Public Policy Polling (reportШаблон:Dead linkШаблон:Cbignore) December 18–21, 2009 1,199 ± 2.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 42% 36% 22%
Rasmussen Reports (report) January 6, 2010 500 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 46% 38% 4% 12%
Rasmussen Reports (report) February 2, 2010 500 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% 39% 3% 11%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 2, 2010 500 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 49% 34% 4% 13%
Research 2000 (report) (archive) March 15–17, 2010 600 ± 5.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 45% 39% 16%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 31, 2010 500 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50% 36% 3% 11%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 28, 2010 500 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% 38% 4% 10%
Public Policy Polling (report) May 1–2, 2010 946 ± 3.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 41% 40% 19%
Research 2000 (report) (archive) May 10–12, 2010 600 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 42% 39% 19%
Rasmussen Reports (reportШаблон:Dead linkШаблон:Cbignore) May 19, 2010 500 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 59% 34% 4% 3%
Research 2000 (report) May 24–26, 2010 600 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 44% 41% 9%
SurveyUSA (report) May 25–27, 2010 569 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 51% 45% 4%
Rasmussen Reports (report) June 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 49% 41% 4% 6%
Rasmussen Reports (report) June 28, 2010 500 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 49% 42% 3% 6%
Public Policy Polling (report) June 28–30, 2010 625 ± 3.9% 43% 43% 14%
Rasmussen Reports (report) July 20, 2010 750 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 49% 41% 4% 6%
SurveyUSA (report) July 27–29, 2010 568 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 51% 43% 5%
Reuters/Ipsos (report) August 13–15, 2010 435 ± 4.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 45% 40% 15%
Rasmussen Reports (report) August 17, 2010 500 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 49% 40% 4% 7%
SurveyUSA (report) August 30 – September 1, 2010 561 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 55% 40% 5%
Opinion Research (report) September 2–7, 2010 869 ± 3.5% 46% 46% 5% 4%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 7, 2010 500 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 54% 39% 2% 4%
Public Policy Polling (report) September 11–12, 2010 959 ± 3.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 49% 42% 9%
SurveyUSA (report) September 21–23, 2010 611 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 49% 47% 4%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 29, 2010 500 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 49% 38% 5% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (report) October 18, 2010 500 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% 42% 4% 7%
Mason-Dixon (report) October 18–19, 2010 625 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48% 43% 9%
Rasmussen Reports (report) October 23, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50% 43% 2% 5%
Public Policy Polling (report) October 21–24, 2010 900 ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 53% 40% 7%
Opinion Research (report) October 20–26, 2010 785 ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50% 43%
SurveyUSA (report) October 24–27, 2010 900 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 52% 43% 4%
Rasmussen Reports (report) October 27, 2010 750 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 53% 41% 2% 4%
Public Policy Polling (report) October 28–30, 2010 1,021 ± 3.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 55% 40% 5%

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

References

Шаблон:Reflist

Further reading

Шаблон:Cite book

External links

Debates
Official campaign websites (Archived)

Шаблон:United States general elections, 2010 Шаблон:Rand Paul

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  37. "Gun Owners of America endorse Шаблон:Webarchive", January 6, 2010
  38. "RLC Endorsements for 2010 Шаблон:Webarchive", April 18, 2010.
  39. "Major pro-life endorsement for Rand Paul Шаблон:Webarchive", April 18, 2010.
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  46. "McConnell Endorses Trey Grayson over Rand Paul", May 4, 2010.
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  81. "National Federation of Independent Business Endorses Dr. Rand Paul" Шаблон:Webarchive, September 23, 2010
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  83. "National Right to Life Endorses Rand Paul" Шаблон:Webarchive, September 17, 2010
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