Английская Википедия:2017 United States Senate special election in Alabama

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use American English Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Alabama sidebar The 2017 United States Senate special election in Alabama took place on December 12, 2017, in order for the winner to serve the remainder of the U.S. Senate term ending on January 3, 2021.

A vacancy arose from Sen. Jeff Sessions's February 8, 2017, resignation from the Senate. Sessions resigned his post to serve as the 84th United States attorney general. On February 9, 2017, Governor Robert J. Bentley appointed Luther Strange, the attorney general of Alabama, to fill the vacancy until a special election could take place. The special election was scheduled for December 12, 2017.[1]

Doug Jones, a former U.S. attorney for the Northern District of Alabama, won the Democratic primary election. Roy Moore, a former chief justice of Alabama's State Supreme Court, competed with Strange and U.S. Representative Mo Brooks in the August 15, 2017, Republican primary; the two highest vote-getters, Moore and Strange, advanced to a runoff.[2] President Donald Trump supported Strange during the primary runoff, as did much of the Republican establishment in the Senate.[3][4] Moore won the primary runoff on September 26, 2017.[5][6]

Following the primaries, Moore was expected to easily win the general election. Polling showed him with a clear lead, and Alabama is known for its overwhelming support for Republicans. However, the race was upended when, in mid-November 2017, multiple women alleged that Moore had made unwanted advances or sexually assaulted them when he was in his early thirties and they were in their teens (the youngest was 14 at the time), attracting widespread national media coverage of the election.[7][8] As a result of these allegations, many national Republican leaders and office holders called for Moore to withdraw from the special election, rescinded their endorsements of him, and stopped funding his campaign.[9][10][11] However, Donald Trump and many Alabama Republicans reaffirmed their support.[12] At the time of the revelations, it was too late to remove his name from the ballot.

On December 12, 2017, the Associated Press called the election for Jones; however, Moore refused to concede.[13][14] Jones was sworn into office on January 3, 2018, becoming the first Democratic U.S. senator from Alabama since Howell Heflin left office in 1997.[15]

Background

Potential appointees

Following then-President-elect Donald Trump's nomination of then-Senator Sessions to be U.S. attorney general, Robert Aderholt, a member of the United States House of Representatives, had asked to be appointed to the seat.[16] Representative Mo Brooks had also expressed interest in the seat, while Strange had stated before being selected that he would run for the seat in the special election whether or not he was appointed.[17][18] Other candidates Gov. Bentley interviewed for the Senate appointment included Moore; Del Marsh, the president pro tempore of the Alabama Senate; and Jim Byard, the director of the Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs.[19]

A vacancy arose from Sen. Jeff Sessions's February 8, 2017, resignation from the Senate. Sessions resigned his post to serve as the 84th United States attorney general. On February 9, 2017, Governor Robert J. Bentley appointed Luther Strange, the attorney general of Alabama, to fill the vacancy until a special election could take place. Bentley controversially scheduled the special election to align with the 2018 general Senate elections instead of scheduliing it sooner.[20][21] When Kay Ivey succeeded Bentley as governor of Alabama, she rescheduled the special election for December 12, 2017.[22]

Republican primary

Campaign

The Republican primary attracted national attention, especially following Trump's endorsement of incumbent Sen. Luther Strange. Strange was backed by several key figures within the Republican establishment, most notably Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. His two main rivals in the primary were former state judge Roy Moore and Congressman Mo Brooks. While Strange was expected to advance through the first round of the primary, almost every opinion poll showed him trailing Roy Moore in a potential runoff. Strange placed second behind Roy Moore, securing a spot in the runoff.[23]

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in runoff

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Шаблон:Col-begin Шаблон:Col-2

Шаблон:Col-2

Шаблон:Col-end

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box

Шаблон:Endorsements box

First round

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
James
Beretta
Joseph
Breault
Randy
Brinson
Mo
Brooks
Mary
Maxwell
Roy
Moore
Bryan
Peeples
Trip
Pittman
Luther
Strange
Undecided
Trafalgar Group (R) August 12–13, 2017 870 ± 3.3% 1% 1% 6% 17% 1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 38% 1% 6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 24% 5%
Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive August 10–12, 2017 373 ± 5.0% 1% 0% 0% 15% 0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 29% 0% 10% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 32% 11%
Trafalgar Group (R) August 8–10, 2017 1,439 ± 2.6% 1% 1% 4% 20% 2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 35% 1% 6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 23% 8%
Cygnal (R) August 8–9, 2017 502 ± 4.4% 2% 18% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 31% 7% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 23% 13%
Strategy Research August 7, 2017 2,000 ± 2.0% 1% 1% 1% 19% 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 35% 1% 9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 29% 0%
JMC Analytics (R) August 5–6, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 2% 19% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 30% 6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 22% 17%
RRH Elections (R) July 31 – August 3, 2017 426 ± 5.0% 2% 18% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 31% 8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 29% 11%
Strategy Research July 24, 2017 3,000 ± 2.0% 1% 1% 2% 16% 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 33% 2% 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 35%
Cygnal (R)Шаблон:Dead link July 20–21, 2017 500 ± 2.0% 16% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 26% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 33%

Шаблон:Election box end

Results

Файл:2017ALUSSenateGOP.svg
Primary results by county Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Collapsible list

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Runoff

President Donald Trump supported Strange during the primary runoff, in addition to much of the Republican establishment in the Senate, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who made the success of Strange's candidacy a major priority.[53][4] Trump's efforts on behalf of Strange included tweeting and a rally in Huntsville, Alabama. Vice President Mike Pence campaigned for Strange as well.[54][5] With McConnell's help, Strange outspent Moore by a margin of 10-to-1.[54][55]

National interest in the race dramatically increased in the month before the runoff. Strange maintained his endorsement from Trump, who campaigned for him in Huntsville during the closing days of the campaign.[56] Trump's endorsement of Strange sparked criticism among his own base, many of whom preferred Moore and detested Strange for being seemingly too friendly with the GOP establishment. Several notable figures close to Trump broke from the president to endorse Moore, including HUD Secretary Ben Carson and Breitbart Executive Chairman Steve Bannon. Despite Trump’s endorsement, Strange was defeated by Roy Moore in the runoff,[57] 54.6%-45.4%.[58]

Moore won the primary runoff on September 26, 2017.[5][59] This was the first time that an incumbent U.S. senator having active White House support lost a primary since Arlen Specter lost to Joe Sestak in 2010.[60]

Debates

Averages

Model Moore Strange Spread
RealClearPolitics[61] 52.5% 41.5% Moore +11.0

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Roy
Moore
Luther
Strange
Undecided
Cygnal (R) September 23–24, 2017 996 ± 3.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% 41% 7%
Trafalgar Group (R) September 23–24, 2017 1,073 ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% 41% 2%
Optimus (R) September 22–23, 2017 1,045 ± 2.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% 45%
Emerson College September 21–23, 2017 367 ± 5.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% 40% 10%
Gravis Marketing September 21–22, 2017 559 ± 4.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 40% 12%
Strategy Research Шаблон:Webarchive September 20, 2017 2,000 ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% 46%
Strategy Research September 18, 2017 2,930 ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% 47%
JMC Analytics (R) September 16–17, 2017 500 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 39% 14%
Voter Consumer Research (R-SLF) September 9–10, 2017 604 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 41% 40% 19%
Emerson College September 8–9, 2017 355 ± 5.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 40% 26% 34%
Strategic National September 6–7, 2017 800 ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 35% 14%
Southeast Research August 29–31, 2017 401 ± 5.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% 36% 12%
Harper Polling Шаблон:Webarchive August 24–26, 2017 600 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 45% 8%
Voter Consumer Research (R-SLF) August 21–23, 2017 601 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 45% 41% 14%
Opinion Savvy August 22, 2017 494 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% 32% 18%
JMC Analytics (R) August 17–19, 2017 515 ± 4.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 32% 17%
Cygnal (R) August 8–9, 2017 502 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 45% 34% 11%
RRH Elections (R) July 31 – August 3, 2017 426 ± 5.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 34% 32% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 34%

Шаблон:Election box end Шаблон:Hidden begin

Poll source Date(s)

administered

Sample
size
Margin
of error
Roy
Moore
Mo
Brooks
Undecided
RRH Elections (R) July 31 – August 3, 2017 426 ± 5.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center|43% 20% 37%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Файл:2017ALUSSenateGOPrunoff.svg
Primary runoff results by county Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Collapsible list

Шаблон:Election box begin no change

Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

  • Ron Crumpton, activist, nominee for the state senate in 2014 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016[69][52]
  • Brian McGee, retired teacher and Vietnam War veteran[26][70][71]

Declined

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Will
Boyd
Vann
Caldwell
Jason
Fisher
Michael
Hansen
Doug
Jones
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Charles
Nana
Undecided
Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive August 10–12, 2017 164 Шаблон:Nowrap 8% 2% 1% 0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 23% 1% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 25%
Strategy Research August 7, 2017 2,000 Шаблон:Nowrap 9% 5% 3% 7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 30% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 40% 5%
Strategy Research July 24, 2017 3,000 Шаблон:Nowrap 6% 4% 4% 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 28% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 5%

Шаблон:Election box end

Results

Файл:2018ALUSSenateDprimary.svg
Primary results by county Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Collapsible list

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Independents and write-in candidates

Candidates

Declared

  • Ron Bishop (L, write-in)[78]
  • Lee Busby (R, write-in), retired Marine colonel[79]
  • Jeff "Cog" Coggin (I, write-in), Air Force veteran[80]
  • Chanda Mills Crutcher (I, write-in), minister[81]
  • Eulas Kirtdoll (I, write-in)[82]
  • Arlester "Mack" McBride (I, write-in)[83]
  • Mac Watson (R, write-in)[84]

Declined

General election

Controversies

Roy Moore sexual misconduct allegations

Шаблон:Main

On November 9, The Washington Post reported that four women had accused Roy Moore of engaging in sexual conduct with them when they were teenagers and he was an assistant district attorney in his thirties. One of the women was 14 years old at the time, below the legal age of consent.[7] A few days later a fifth woman said that she had received unwanted attention from Moore when she was 15 years old, and that in December 1977 or January 1978,[85] when she was 16, Moore sexually assaulted her.[8][86] Moore denied the allegations.

After this, certain Republican leaders and conservative organizations withdrew their endorsements of Moore or asked him to drop out of the campaign. These included Texas Senator Ted Cruz, U.S. Attorney General and former seat holder Jeff Sessions, Ivanka Trump,[87] the National Republican Senatorial Committee,[88] former Republican presidential nominees Mitt Romney[89] and John McCain,[90] Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell,[91] Ohio Governor John Kasich,[92] Utah Senator Mike Lee,[93] Montana Senator Steve Daines,[94] and House Representatives Barbara Comstock, Carlos Curbelo, and Adam Kinzinger, as well as the Young Republican Federation of Alabama.[95][96][97][98][99] The state’s senior Senator Richard Shelby also refused to endorse Moore. Other conservative websites and organizations such as National Review urged readers not to vote for Moore.[100][101] Despite this, Moore continued to receive support from the state party and a week before the election, President Donald Trump strongly endorsed Moore.[102] Following Trump's endorsement, the RNC reinstated their support for him,[103] and Republican leaders said they would "let the people of Alabama decide" whether to elect Moore.[104]

At the time of the revelations, it was too close to the election for Moore's name to be removed from the ballot.[105] Republican officials proposed various ways to promote an alternate Republican candidate. One suggestion was to ask Governor Kay Ivey to delay the special election until 2018,[106] but Ivey said she had no plans to change the election date.[107] Some Republicans such as Senator Lisa Murkowski floated the prospect of a write-in campaign to elect Luther Strange, with Utah Senator Orrin Hatch actively endorsing a write-in campaign for Strange.[108] However, Strange said it was "highly unlikely" that he would run a write-in campaign.[109] Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell proposed Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who formerly held the Senate seat, as a write-in candidate.[110] In late November, Retired Marine Col. Lee Busby launched a write-in campaign, stating that he thought there was room for a centrist in the race.[111]

Debates

Republican nominee Roy Moore refused to debate Democratic nominee Doug Jones.[112][113][114] Moore turned down debate invitations extended by the League of Women Voters,[113] WHNT-TV and AL.com.[114][112] Jones' campaign said that Jones was "willing to debate Roy Moore anytime, anywhere" and accused Moore of "hiding from the voters, from the media and from his record for weeks."[114][112] Moore and his campaign stated that he refused to debate Jones because their policy positions were already clear to voters and thus there was no need for a formal debate.[114][112]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[115] Шаблон:USRaceRating December 7, 2017
Sabato's Crystal Ball[116] Шаблон:USRaceRating December 7, 2017
Rothenberg Political Report[117] Шаблон:USRaceRating December 7, 2017

Candidates

On ballot

Write-in

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box

Polling

Шаблон:Graph:Chart

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Roy
Moore (R)
Doug
Jones (D)
Lee
Busby (R)
write-in
Other Undecided
Change Research December 9–11, 2017 1,543 ± 2.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 45% 4%
SurveyMonkey November 30 – December 11, 2017 2,203 ± 4.5% 47% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 4%
Fox News Шаблон:Webarchive December 7–10, 2017 1,127 ± 3.0% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% 2% 8%
Emerson College December 7–9, 2017 600 ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% 44% 4%
Monmouth University December 6–9, 2017 546 ± 4.2% 46% 46% 2% 6%
Public Policy Polling (D)* December 7–8, 2017 1,092 ± 3.8% 46% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 6%
Gravis Marketing December 5–8, 2017 1,254 ± 2.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 45% 6%
Trafalgar Group (R) December 6–7, 2017 1,419 ± 3.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 46% 3%
Change Research December 5–7, 2017 2,443 ± 2.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 44% 5%
SurveyMonkey November 30 – December 7, 2017 1,559 ± 5.5% 47% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 4%
Strategy Research December 4, 2017 3,200 ± 2.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% 43% 3% 4%
Gravis Marketing December 1–3, 2017 1,276 ± 2.7% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 8%
Emerson College November 30 – December 2, 2017 500 ± 4.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 46% 5%
YouGov November 28 – December 1, 2017 1,067 ± 3.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 43% 4% 4%
Washington Post/Schar School November 27–30, 2017 739 ± 4.5% 47% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% 3%
JMC Analytics (R) November 27–28, 2017 650 ± 3.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 44% 5%[122] 2%
National Research Inc (R) November 26–28, 2017 600 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% 45% 9%
Change Research November 26–27, 2017 1,868 ± 2.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 44% 7%
Emerson College November 25–27, 2017 500 ± 4.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% 47%
Strategy Research November 20, 2017 3,000 ± 2.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 45% 3% 5%
WT&S Consulting (R) November 18–20, 2017 11,641 ± 1.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% 40% 13%
Change Research November 15–16, 2017 2,090 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 11%
National Research Inc November 13–16, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 10%
Gravis Marketing November 14–15, 2017 628 ± 3.5% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 11%
Fox News November 13–15, 2017 649 ± 3.5% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% 2% 7%
Strategy Research Шаблон:Webarchive November 13, 2017 3,000 ± 2.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 43% 8%
NRSC (R) November 12–13, 2017 500 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% 10%
WT&S Consulting (R) November 11, 2017 1,536 ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% 40% 11%
Emerson College November 9–11, 2017 600 ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% 45%
JMC Analytics (R) November 9–11, 2017 575 ± 4.1% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 2%[123] 6%
Change Research November 9–11, 2017 1,855 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% 40% 3% 13%
Gravis Marketing November 10, 2017 478 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 46% 6%
WT&S Consulting (R) November 9, 2017 1,354 ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% 39% 11%
Opinion Savvy November 9, 2017 515 ± 4.3% 46% 46% 4% 4%
NRSC (R) November 6–7, 2017 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 42% 8%
Strategy Research November 6, 2017 2,200 ± 2.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 40% 9%
Axis Research (R-SLF) October 24–26, 2017 503 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% 39% 5%
Strategy Research Шаблон:Webarchive October 19, 2017 3,000 ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% 41% 7%
Strategy Research Шаблон:Webarchive October 16, 2017 3,000 ± 2.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 40% 9%
Fox News October 14–16, 2017 801 ± 3.5% 42% 42% 3% 11%
NRSC (R) October 3–5, 2017 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% 37% 10%
Cygnal (R) October 2–5, 2017 497 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 41% 9%
JMC Analytics (R) September 30 – October 1, 2017 500 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 40% 1%[124] 11%
Opinion Savvy September 27–28, 2017 590 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% 45% 5%
Emerson College September 21–23, 2017 519 ± 4.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% 30% 18%
Emerson College September 8–9, 2017 416 ± 4.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% 40% 16%

* Unpublished poll released on December 15

Шаблон:Hidden begin

with Roy Moore on ballot and Luther Strange as write-in candidate
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Шаблон:Nowrap
Roy
Moore (R)
Doug
Jones (D)
Luther
Strange (R)
Other Undecided
Opinion Savvy[125] November 9, 2017 515 ± 4.3% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% 12% 1% 2%

Шаблон:Election box end

with Luther Strange on ballot
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Шаблон:Nowrap
Luther
Strange (R)
Doug
Jones (D)
Other Undecided
Fox News[126] November 13–15, 2017 649 LV ± 3.5% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 3% 5%
823 RV ± 3.0% 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 3% 6%
Emerson College[127] September 21–23, 2017 519 ± 4.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 36% 15%
Emerson College[128] September 8–9, 2017 416 ± 4.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% 40% 17%

Шаблон:Election box end

with generic Republican/Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Шаблон:Nowrap
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Washington Post/Schar School[129] November 27–30, 2017 739 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% 44% 6%
JMC Analytics (R)[130] November 27–28, 2017 650 ± 3.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 46% 3%
JMC Analytics (R)[131] November 9–11, 2017 575 ± 4.1% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 8%
JMC Analytics (R)[132] September 30 – October 1, 2017 500 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 45% 6%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

At 9:23 p.m. CST on December 12, 2017, the Associated Press called the election for Jones; however, Moore refused to concede.[133][134] Jones was the first Democratic candidate to win a statewide election in Alabama since former lieutenant governor Lucy Baxley was elected president of the Alabama Public Service Commission in 2008.[135] Jones was sworn into office on January 3, 2018, becoming the first Democratic U.S. senator from Alabama since Howell Heflin left office in 1997.[15]

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box gain with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

By congressional district

Despite his statewide win, Jones only won one district.[136]

District Moore Jones Representative
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 51% 47% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Bradley Byrne
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 55% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Martha Roby
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 51% 48% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Mike Rogers
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 68% 31% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Robert Aderholt
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 49% 49% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Mo Brooks
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 51% 47% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Gary Palmer
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 21% 78% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Terri Sewell

Results by county

Doug Jones Roy Moore Write-ins Total votes
County Votes % Votes % Votes % Turnout %
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Autauga 5,615 38.38% 8,762 59.90% 253 1.73% 14,630 38.32%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Baldwin 22,261 35.60% 38,566 61.68% 1,703 2.72% 62,530 42.74%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Barbour 3,716 57.53% 2,702 41.83% 41 0.63% 6,459 38.35%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Bibb 1,567 29.95% 3,599 68.79% 66 1.26% 5,232 38.32%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Blount 2,408 16.94% 11,631 81.80% 180 1.27% 14,219 37.45%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Bullock 2,715 80.37% 656 19.42% 7 0.21% 3,378 45.53%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Butler 2,915 51.02% 2,758 48.27% 41 0.72% 5,714 42.36%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Calhoun 12,331 44.04% 15,238 54.43% 429 1.53% 27,998 36.18%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Chambers 4,257 55.75% 3,312 43.37% 67 0.88% 7,636 32.42%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Cherokee 1,529 27.09% 4,006 70.98% 109 1.93% 5,644 33.00%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Chilton 2,306 23.06% 7,563 75.62% 132 1.32% 10,001 35.42%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Choctaw 2,277 53.66% 1,949 45.93% 17 0.40% 4,243 40.10%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Clarke 4,363 51.93% 3,995 47.55% 43 0.51% 8,401 43.96%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Clay 990 27.52% 2,589 71.96% 19 0.53% 3,598 36.92%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Cleburne 600 19.37% 2,468 79.66% 30 0.97% 3,098 29.47%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Coffee 3,730 31.10% 8,063 67.22% 202 1.68% 11,995 36.52%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Colbert 6,881 46.41% 7,771 52.41% 171 1.15% 14,828 37.75%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Conecuh 2,259 55.21% 1,815 44.35% 18 0.44% 4,092 39.84%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Coosa 1,415 42.71% 1,867 56.39% 30 0.91% 3,312 41.42%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Covington 2,107 23.33% 6,835 75.69% 88 0.97% 9,030 35.09%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Crenshaw 1,320 35.46% 2,347 63.04% 56 1.50% 3,725 37.66%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Cullman 4,161 19.73% 16,609 78.74% 324 1.54% 21,094 37.61%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Dale 3,844 35.04% 6,991 63.72% 136 1.24% 10,971 34.87%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Dallas 10,503 74.75% 3,487 24.82% 60 0.43% 14,050 44.88%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| DeKalb 3,559 25.62% 10,097 72.69% 234 1.68% 13,890 34.31%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Elmore 7,711 34.33% 14,415 64.16% 338 1.50% 22,464 41.34%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Escambia 3,642 41.78% 4,987 57.22% 87 1.00% 8,716 35.39%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Etowah 10,568 40.34% 15,730 60.04% 620 2.37% 26,918 38.57%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Fayette 1,143 24.39% 3,491 74.55% 50 1.07% 4,684 38.40%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Franklin 1,771 29.34% 4,216 69.86% 48 0.80% 6,035 33.50%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Geneva 1,290 18.92% 5,433 79.72% 93 1.37% 6,816 37.84%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Greene 3,345 87.64% 462 12.12% 9 0.24% 3,816 53.89%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Hale 3,902 69.33% 1,691 30.11% 32 0.57% 5,625 46.26%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Henry 1,899 38.32% 3,015 60.91% 38 0.77% 4,952 39.20%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Houston 9,198 37.81% 14,846 61.02% 285 1.17% 24,329 34.18%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Jackson 3,330 30.82% 7,317 67.75% 154 1.43% 10,801 29.44%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Jefferson 149,759 68.13% 66,350 30.18% 3,716 1.69% 219,825 47.38%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Lamar 779 21.31% 2,847 77.89% 29 0.79% 3,655 34.46%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Lauderdale 9,970 43.02% 12,818 55.31% 388 1.67% 23,176 37.53%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Lawrence 3,033 36.04% 5,321 63.23% 61 0.72% 8,415 35.49%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Lee 19,886 57.61% 14,059 40.73% 674 1.95% 34,519 32.90%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Limestone 9,606 39.19% 14,298 58.33% 515 2.10% 24,514 41.18%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Lowndes 3,783 79.08% 988 20.65% 13 0.27% 4,784 47.14%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Macon 5,783 88.14% 759 11.56% 20 0.30% 6,567 37.70%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Madison 65,997 56.98% 46,381 40.04% 3,447 2.98% 115,825 45.68%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Marengo 4,498 61.11% 2,805 38.11% 62 0.84% 7,361 46.01%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Marion 1,311 19.72% 5,269 79.25% 68 1.02% 6,647 32.82%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Marshall 5,145 26.47% 13,842 71.21% 450 2.32% 19,437 34.22%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Mobile 62,716 56.46% 46,828 42.15% 1,546 1.39% 111,090 38.55%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Monroe 3,266 49.59% 3,280 49.80% 40 0.61% 6,586 40.79%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Montgomery 48,374 72.35% 17,739 26.53% 745 1.11% 66,858 44.05%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Morgan 10,935 35.48% 19,215 62.34% 671 2.18% 30,821 40.28%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Perry 3,140 79.04% 821 20.68% 11 0.28% 3,972 48.70%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Pickens 3,064 50.44% 2,965 48.81% 46 0.76% 6,075 44.18%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Pike 4,015 48.51% 4,165 50.32% 97 1.17% 8,277 37.58%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Randolph 1,695 34.25% 3,231 65.29% 23 0.46% 4,949 29.66%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Russell 6,761 64.77% 3,622 34.70% 55 0.53% 10,438 28.52%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Shelby 27,311 41.71% 36,455 55.67% 1,718 2.62% 65,484 45.63%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| St. Clair 6,212 27.43% 15,889 70.15% 459 2.03% 22,560 38.05%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Sumter 3,527 80.91% 814 18.67% 18 0.41% 4,359 43.95%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Talladega 9,977 50.13% 9,701 48.75% 223 1.12% 19,901 37.45%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Tallapoosa 4,605 38.59% 7,179 60.16% 150 1.26% 11,934 40.19%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Tuscaloosa 30,869 57.23% 22,067 40.91% 1,007 1.87% 53,943 40.83%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Walker 4,330 26.20% 11,938 72.23% 259 1.57% 16,527 35.19%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Washington 1,805 34.86% 3,325 64.21% 48 0.93% 5,178 39.78%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Wilcox 3,345 76.74% 1,000 22.94% 16 0.37% 4,359 46.94%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Winston 911 16.10% 4,681 82.71% 67 1.18% 5,659 35.80%
Totals 673,896 49.97% 651,972 48.34% 22,852 1.69% 1,348,720 100.00%

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Analysis

Шаблон:External media

Файл:Doug Jones election watch party (39007876972).jpg
Jones on stage following his victory
Файл:Alabama Senate special election, 2017 write-ins by county.svg
Write-in votes by county: Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend

Doug Jones defeated Roy Moore by a margin of 21,924 votes. Voter turnout was 40.54% of Alabama's 3,326,812[137] registered voters.

Jones won primarily by running up huge margins in the state's major cities. The state's four largest counties—Jefferson (home to the state's largest city of Birmingham), Mobile (home to Mobile), Madison (home to Huntsville), and Montgomery (home to the state capital of Montgomery)—all gave Jones 56 percent or more of the vote. He carried Jefferson by over 83,800 votes, and Montgomery by almost 30,500 votes; either county would have been more than enough to give him the victory. Jones also dominated the Black Belt. Jones took 61% of votes from voters under 45. He also took over 96 percent of the Black vote. While Moore dominated the state's rural areas outside of the Black Belt, he significantly underperformed Trump's totals in those areas, as well as the suburbs such as traditional GOP fortress Shelby County, which Moore won by a small margin.[138]

Файл:DSCC fundraising off of 2017 Alabama special election victory (4).jpg
An envelope to a Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee fundraising mailer distributed in 2018 with a reference to Jones' victory in the traditionally strongly Republican state of Alabama

As of December 15, Moore demanded a recount and refused to concede the race, despite being urged by Trump, Bannon, and others to concede. In Alabama, if the final margin of victory is less than 0.5%, then a recount is automatically triggered. If not, then either candidate can request a recount at their own expense.[139][140] However, Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill estimated that a recount could cost anywhere from $1 million to $1.5 million, an amount that would have had to be paid in full when the request is made. Moore had only $636,046 on hand by the time the campaign ended.[141] A number of right-leaning websites pushed conspiracy theories about voter fraud providing the margin for Jones.[142] Merrill noted on December 20 that the only outstanding ballots were 366 military ballots and 4,967 provisional ballots; even if all those votes were for Moore, it would not have been enough to trigger an automatic recount.[143]

Because the number of write-in votes was larger than Jones' margin of victory, the names written in were both counted and listed.[144] Luther Strange, who lost the Republican primary to Moore, received the most write-in votes, followed by former White House aide Lee Busby, U.S. Rep. Mo Brooks, who also ran in the Republican Senate primary, Libertarian write-in candidate Ron Bishop, and Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Nick Saban, Alabama's head coach, finished in seventh with more than 250 votes.[145]

After the election, Moore filed a lawsuit attempting to block the state from certifying the election and calling for an investigation into voter fraud. On December 28, 2017, a judge dismissed this lawsuit and state officials certified the election results, officially declaring Doug Jones the winner.[146] Jones was sworn into office on January 3, 2018, by Vice President Mike Pence.[15] Jones became the first Democrat to win a statewide race in Alabama since former lieutenant governor Lucy Baxley was elected president of the Alabama Public Service Commission in 2008 over Republican Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh.[135] Prior to that, Democrat Jim Folsom Jr. was elected Lieutenant Governor of Alabama in 2006 over Republican Luther Strange.[147] The last Democrat to win a federal statewide election in Alabama was Richard Shelby in 1992, who switched to the Republican Party in late 1994.[148]

Voter demographics

Cnn Exit Poll
Demographic subgroup Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | Jones Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Moore % of
Voters
Gender
Men 42 56 49
Women 57 41 51
Age
18–24 years old 59 40 8
25–29 years old 62 35 5
30–39 years old 66 32 12
40–49 years old 53 46 20
50–64 years old 46 53 32
65 and older 40 59 23
Race
White 30 68 66
Black 96 4 29
Race by gender
White men 26 72 35
White women 34 63 31
Black men 93 6 11
Black women 98 2 17
Education
High school or less 56 44 20
Some college education 46 50 36
College degree 52 46 28
Advanced degree 58 39 16
Party ID
Democrats 98 2 37
Republicans 8 91 43
Independents 51 43 21
Ideology
Liberals 86 14 23
Moderates 74 25 31
Conservatives 15 83 45
Children under 18 in your home?
Yes 56 42 35
No 49 50 65
Are sexual misconduct allegations against Moore:
Definitely True 97 2 26
Probably True 82 15 26
Probably False 3 95 27
Definitely False 7 93 15
When did you decide your vote?
Last few days 38 57 12
Earlier in December 47 50 9
In November 53 46 21
Before November 53 46 57
Area type
Urban 85 14 20
Suburban 47 51 38
Rural 36 62 42
Source: CNN[149]

See also

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Official campaign websites

Шаблон:2017 United States elections Шаблон:United States Senate elections

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