Английская Википедия:2020 United States presidential election in Alabama

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Main Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Use American English Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Alabama sidebar The 2020 United States presidential election in Alabama took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated.[1] Alabama voters chose nine electors[2] to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. Also on the ballot was the Libertarian nominee, psychology lecturer Jo Jorgensen and her running mate, entrepreneur and podcaster Spike Cohen. Write-in candidates were permitted without registration, and their results were not individually counted.[3][4]

Prior to the election, all 14 news organizations making predictions considered this a state Trump would win, or otherwise a safe red state. A socially conservative Bible Belt state, Alabama has voted for the Republican candidate in every election since 1980 and has done so by double-digit margins in all of them except 1980, 1992, and 1996. Per exit polls by Edison Research, Biden's only strength came from African American voters with 89%; this strength was reflected in the majority-black counties of the Black Belt that Biden carried. Conversely, Trump dominated key Republican constituencies, including 92% among white born-again Evangelicals. Trump also carried 72 percent of Alabama's white vote overall, winning several suburban counties near Birmingham, Montgomery, and Mobile with well over 70 percent of the vote.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.

Republican primary

As one of the Super Tuesday states, little campaigning has been done here, and the focus had been on the highly competitive Republican senatorial primary, which was expected to boost turnout.Шаблон:Citation needed Шаблон:Excerpt

Democratic primary

Шаблон:ExcerptШаблон:Excerpt

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[5] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[6] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2020
Politico[8] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2020
RCP[9] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2020
Niskanen[10][11] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2020
CNN[12] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2020
The Economist[13] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2020
CBS News[14]Шаблон:Efn Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2020
270towin[15] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2020
ABC News[16] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2020
NPR[17]Шаблон:Efn Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2020
NBC News[18] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2020
538[19] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Шаблон:Graph:Chart

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Шаблон:Nobold 		Donald
Trump
Шаблон:Nobold 		Other/
Undecided
Шаблон:Efn 		Margin
270 to Win September 1 – October 13, 2020 October 27, 2020 38.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |58.0% 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Шаблон:HsTrump +20.0
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 37.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |57.4% 4.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Шаблон:HsTrump +19.5
Average 37.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |57.7% 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Trump +19.8
Polls
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn 		Margin
Шаблон:Nowrap 		Donald
Trump
Шаблон:Nobold 		Joe
Biden
Шаблон:Nobold 		Jo
Jorgensen
Шаблон:Nobold 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,808 (LV) ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |62%Шаблон:Efn 36% – – –
Swayable Шаблон:Webarchive Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 330 (LV) ± 7.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |55% 38% 7% – –
Data for Progress Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 1,045 (LV) ± 3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |58% 38% 3% 1% 0%Шаблон:Efn
Auburn University At Montgomery Oct 23–28, 2020 853 (LV) ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |58% 39% – 3% –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 3,363 (LV) – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |61% 37% – – –
Swayable Oct 23–26, 2020 266 (LV) ± 7.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |56% 37% 7% – –
Moore Information (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua Oct 11–14, 2020 504 (LV) ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |55% 38% – – –
Auburn University at Montgomery Шаблон:Webarchive Sep 30 – Oct 3, 2020 1,072 (RV) ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |57% 37% – 6% –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 1,354 (LV) – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |59% 39% – – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 1,220 (LV) – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |65% 33% – – 2%
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy AllianceШаблон:Efn-ua Aug 17–19, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |48% 44% 0% 0%Шаблон:Efn 7%
Morning Consult Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 609 (LV) ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |58% 36% – 2%Шаблон:Efn 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 1,583 (LV) – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |63% 35% – – 2%
Auburn University at Montgomery Шаблон:Webarchive Jul 2–9, 2020 567 (RV) ± 5.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |55% 41% – 4% 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 649 (LV) – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |63% 35% – – 2%
FM3 Research/Doug JonesШаблон:Efn-ua May 14–18, 2020 601 (LV) ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |53% 39% – – –
Mason-Dixon Feb 4–6, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |58% 38% – – 4%
WPA Intelligence Jan 7–9, 2020 500 (LV) – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |59% 38% – – 3%

Шаблон:Collapse top

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn 		Margin
Шаблон:Nowrap 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Michael
Bloomberg (D) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon Feb 4–6, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|54% 40% 6%
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn 		Margin
Шаблон:Nowrap 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon Feb 4–6, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|58% 37% 5%
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn 		Margin
Шаблон:Nowrap 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon Feb 4–6, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|60% 37% 3%
WPA Intelligence Jan 7–9, 2020 500 (LV) – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|59% 37% 4%
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn 		Margin
Шаблон:Nowrap 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon Feb 4–6, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|62% 35% 3%

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Шаблон:Collapse top

With generic opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
opponent 		Undecided
JMC Analytics Dec 16–18, 2019 525 (LV) ± 4.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|54% 42%Шаблон:Efn 3%

Шаблон:Collapse bottom

Fundraising

According to the Federal Election Commission, in 2019 and 2020, Donald Trump and his interest groups raised $4,412,645.01,[20] Joe Biden and his interest groups raised $2,412,420.93,[21] and Jo Jorgensen raised $8,172.29[22] from Alabama-based contributors.

Candidate ballot access

In addition, write-in candidates were allowed without registration, and their votes were not counted individually.[3][4]

Electoral slates

Technically the voters of Alabama cast their ballots for electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, rather than directly for the President and Vice President. Alabama is allocated 9 electors because it has 7 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 9 electors who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the most votes in the state is awarded all 9 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector. In the state of Alabama, a faithless elector's vote is counted and not penalized.[23][24]

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2020, to cast their votes for president and vice president. All 9 pledged electors cast their votes for President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead, the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The electoral vote was tabulated and certified by Congress in a joint session on January 6, 2021 per the Electoral Count Act.

These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[25][26][27]

Donald Trump and Mike Pence
Republican Party 		Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
Democratic Party 		Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party
Jacquelyn Gay
Jeana S. Boggs
Joseph R. Fuller
John H. Killian
J. Elbert Peters
Joan Reynolds
Rick Pate
Dennis H. Beavers
John Wahl 		Brooke Tanner Battle
Linda Coleman-Madison
Earl Hilliard Jr.
Sigfredo Rubio
Lashunda Scales
James Box Spearman
Patricia Todd
Sheila Tyson
Ralph Young 		Pascal Bruijn
Lorelei Koory
Shane A. Taylor
Jason Matthew Shelby
Elijah J. Boyd
Dennis J. Knizley
Laura Chancey Lane
Anthony G. Peebles
Franklin R. Dillman

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box end

Results by county

County colspan="2" style="text-align: center;" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Donald Trump
Republican		 colspan="2" style="text-align: center;" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | Joe Biden
Democratic		 colspan="2" style="text-align: center;" Шаблон:Party shading/Independent | Jo Jorgensen
IndependentШаблон:Efn		 Write-in Margin Total
votes
colspan="1" style="text-align: center;" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | % colspan="1" style="text-align: center;" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | # colspan="1" style="text-align: center;" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | % colspan="1" style="text-align: center;" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | # colspan="1" style="text-align: center;" Шаблон:Party shading/Independent | % colspan="1" style="text-align: center;" Шаблон:Party shading/Independent | # % # % #
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Autauga 71.44% 19,838 27.02% 7,503 1.26% 350 0.28% 79 44.42% 12,335 27,770
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Baldwin 76.17% 83,544 22.41% 24,578 1.12% 1,229 0.30% 328 53.76% 68,966 109,679
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Barbour 53.45% 5,622 45.79% 4,816 0.65% 68 0.11% 12 7.66% 806 10,518
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Bibb 78.43% 7,525 20.70% 1,986 0.77% 74 0.10% 10 57.73% 5,539 9,595
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Blount 89.57% 24,711 9.57% 2,640 0.76% 209 0.10% 28 80.00% 22,071 27,588
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Bullock 24.84% 1,146 74.70% 3,446 0.41% 19 0.04% 2 -49.66% -2,300 4,613
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Butler 57.53% 5,458 41.79% 3,965 0.62% 59 0.06% 6 15.74% 1,493 9,488
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Calhoun 68.85% 35,101 29.85% 15,216 1.08% 553 0.22% 113 39.00% 19,885 50,983
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Chambers 57.27% 8,753 41.64% 6,365 0.92% 141 0.16% 25 15.63% 2,388 15,284
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Cherokee 86.03% 10,583 13.20% 1,624 0.67% 82 0.10% 12 72.83% 8,959 12,301
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Chilton 83.30% 16,085 15.91% 3,073 0.64% 123 0.15% 29 67.39% 13,012 19,310
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Choctaw 57.56% 4,296 41.89% 3,127 0.51% 38 0.04% 3 15.67% 1,169 7,464
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Clarke 55.76% 7,324 43.81% 5,755 0.37% 49 0.05% 7 11.95% 1,569 13,135
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Clay 80.82% 5,601 18.28% 1,267 0.76% 53 0.13% 9 62.54% 4,334 6,930
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Cleburne 89.72% 6,484 9.34% 675 0.83% 60 0.11% 8 80.38% 5,809 7,227
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Coffee 75.87% 16,899 22.79% 5,076 1.19% 264 0.16% 36 53.08% 11,823 22,275
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Colbert 68.86% 19,203 29.92% 8,343 0.98% 272 0.24% 68 38.94% 10,860 27,886
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Conecuh 53.44% 3,442 46.05% 2,966 0.50% 32 0.02% 1 7.39% 476 6,441
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Coosa 66.27% 3,631 32.78% 1,796 0.84% 46 0.11% 6 33.49% 1,835 5,479
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Covington 83.68% 14,586 15.61% 2,721 0.56% 97 0.15% 26 68.07% 11,865 17,430
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Crenshaw 73.51% 4,864 25.69% 1,700 0.66% 44 0.14% 9 47.82% 3,164 6,617
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Cullman 88.12% 36,880 10.70% 4,478 1.00% 418 0.18% 75 77.42% 32,402 41,851
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Dale 72.46% 14,303 26.19% 5,170 1.18% 233 0.16% 32 46.27% 9,133 19,738
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Dallas 30.92% 5,524 68.46% 12,230 0.50% 90 0.11% 20 -37.54% -6,706 17,864
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|DeKalb 84.37% 24,767 14.58% 4,281 0.85% 250 0.20% 58 69.79% 20,486 29,356
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Elmore 73.52% 30,164 25.27% 10,367 0.97% 398 0.25% 101 48.25% 19,797 41,030
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Escambia 68.32% 10,869 30.91% 4,918 0.59% 94 0.18% 29 37.41% 5,951 15,910
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Etowah 74.44% 35,528 24.24% 11,567 1.11% 531 0.21% 102 50.20% 23,961 47,728
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Fayette 83.28% 7,300 15.91% 1,395 0.64% 56 0.17% 15 67.37% 5,905 8,766
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Franklin 82.49% 10,376 16.58% 2,086 0.84% 106 0.08% 10 65.91% 8,290 12,578
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Geneva 86.47% 10,848 12.71% 1,595 0.72% 90 0.10% 12 73.76% 9,253 12,545
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Greene 18.32% 875 81.34% 3,884 0.17% 8 0.17% 8 -63.02% -3,009 4,775
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Hale 40.41% 3,192 59.03% 4,663 0.47% 37 0.10% 8 -18.62% -1,471 7,900
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Henry 71.06% 6,607 28.03% 2,606 0.74% 69 0.17% 16 43.03% 4,001 9,298
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Houston 70.64% 32,618 27.98% 12,917 1.15% 533 0.23% 105 42.66% 19,701 46,173
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Jackson 83.22% 19,670 15.73% 3,717 0.88% 208 0.17% 41 67.49% 15,953 23,636
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Jefferson 42.61% 138,843 55.76% 181,688 1.10% 3,578 0.53% 1,739 -13.15% -42,845 325,848
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Lamar 85.83% 6,174 13.60% 978 0.46% 33 0.11% 8 72.23% 5,196 7,193
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Lauderdale 71.54% 31,721 26.87% 11,915 1.21% 537 0.37% 166 44.67% 19,806 44,339
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Lawrence 76.86% 12,322 22.22% 3,562 0.79% 126 0.13% 21 54.64% 8,760 16,031
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Lee 59.09% 42,221 38.99% 27,860 1.43% 1,019 0.49% 349 20.10% 14,361 71,449
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Limestone 70.36% 34,640 27.77% 13,672 1.52% 748 0.36% 175 42.59% 20,968 49,235
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Lowndes 26.86% 1,836 72.74% 4,972 0.38% 26 0.01% 1 -45.88% -3,136 6,835
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Macon 17.67% 1,541 81.49% 7,108 0.60% 52 0.25% 22 -63.82% -5,567 8,723
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Madison 52.77% 102,780 44.82% 87,286 1.90% 3,699 0.51% 1,002 7.95% 15,494 194,767
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Marengo 49.02% 5,343 50.35% 5,488 0.54% 59 0.09% 10 -1.33% -145 10,900
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Marion 88.40% 12,205 10.60% 1,463 0.83% 115 0.17% 24 77.80% 10,742 13,807
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Marshall 83.70% 33,191 14.99% 5,943 1.10% 435 0.22% 86 68.71% 27,248 39,655
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Mobile 55.27% 101,243 43.39% 79,474 1.06% 1,938 0.28% 509 11.88% 21,769 183,164
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Monroe 57.62% 6,147 41.76% 4,455 0.50% 53 0.12% 13 15.86% 1,692 10,668
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Montgomery 33.60% 33,311 65.09% 64,529 0.93% 923 0.38% 376 -31.49% -31,218 99,139
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Morgan 73.83% 39,664 24.63% 13,234 1.31% 705 0.22% 119 49.20% 26,430 53,722
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Perry 25.60% 1,339 73.80% 3,860 0.46% 24 0.13% 7 -48.20% -2,521 5,230
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Pickens 57.86% 5,594 41.60% 4,022 0.41% 40 0.12% 12 16.26% 1,572 9,668
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Pike 58.10% 8,042 40.72% 5,636 0.97% 134 0.21% 29 17.38% 2,406 13,841
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Randolph 78.98% 8,559 20.33% 2,203 0.56% 61 0.13% 14 58.65% 6,356 10,837
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Russell 46.25% 9,864 52.64% 11,228 0.93% 198 0.18% 39 -6.39% -1,564 21,329
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Shelby 69.33% 79,700 28.94% 33,268 1.27% 1,462 0.45% 520 40.39% 46,432 114,950
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|St. Clair 81.38% 36,166 17.43% 7,744 1.00% 446 0.19% 85 63.95% 28,422 44,441
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Sumter 25.40% 1,598 73.88% 4,648 0.59% 37 0.13% 8 -48.48% -3,050 6,291
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Talladega 62.35% 22,235 36.84% 13,138 0.69% 247 0.12% 43 25.51% 9,097 35,663
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Tallapoosa 71.28% 14,963 27.91% 5,859 0.62% 130 0.19% 39 43.37% 9,104 20,991
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Tuscaloosa 56.69% 51,117 41.88% 37,765 1.03% 927 0.40% 363 14.81% 13,352 90,172
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Walker 83.42% 26,002 15.51% 4,834 0.89% 277 0.18% 57 67.91% 21,168 31,170
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Washington 73.95% 6,564 25.44% 2,258 0.51% 45 0.10% 9 48.51% 4,306 8,876
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Wilcox 31.05% 1,833 68.58% 4,048 0.29% 17 0.08% 5 -37.53% -2,215 5,903
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Winston 90.35% 10,195 8.63% 974 0.90% 102 0.12% 13 81.72% 9,221 11,284

Шаблон:Align

Results by congressional district

Trump won 6 of 7 congressional districts.[28] Trump's 81.2% in Alabama's 4th district was his best showing of any congressional district in the nation.

District Trump Biden Elected
representative
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 63.7% 35.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Jerry Carl
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 63.9% 35.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Barry Moore
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 65.3% 33.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Mike Rogers
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 81.2% 17.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Robert Aderholt
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 62.7% 35.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Mo Brooks
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 67.0% 31.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Gary Palmer
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 28.5% 70.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Terri Sewell

Analysis

The Democratic Party dominated Alabama politics in the early 19th century.[29] The party held an 84-year streak on the presidential ballot from 1876 and 1944, and did not vote for a Republican between 1872 and 1964. Congressional and local politics were effectively one-party systems as well even into the early 21st century. Yet, the Southern Strategy and realignment of political parties made the Republicans the prominent political party in the South as evangelical White Southerners realigned to the Republicans in response and opposition to the Democratic support of Civil Rights legislation. Republican ascendance to the presidential ballot began in 1964, when conservative Barry Goldwater easily carried the state among others in the Deep South, despite Lyndon B. Johnson's nationwide landslide. Johnson wiped out Goldwater in most of the rest of the country [30] due to Johnson portraying Goldwater's views as anti-civil rights and pro-war, the former of which also appealed more to the Southern states. Thus, this election marked a turning point in Alabama politics, creating a Republican advantage that slowly trickled downballot.[31] As a consequence, today, it is now one of the quintessential Republican states in the South, and a Trump victory was near-guaranteed.

According to the Pew Research Center, Alabama is tied with neighboring Mississippi for the most religious state in the country: as of 2016, 77% of adults are "highly religious" and 82% believe in God.[32] Just as with other Bible Belt states, the dominating evangelical population in rural and suburban Alabama more than offset any gains made by Vice President Biden. Biden did win Jefferson County, which encompasses Alabama's largest city, Birmingham, by a margin of 13.15%.[33] Birmingham was a potential host for the 2020 Democratic National Convention, but it was not chosen.[34][35] The rest of the counties he won were in the Black Belt, a Democratic enclave in Alabama due to high proportions of African Americans. Highly fertile black soil made this area a hotbed for slavery in the antebellum and Civil War days, and once these slaves were emancipated in 1865 and enfranchised in the 1960s, this collection of counties, all of which but Russell still being majority-Black, became solidly Democratic: seven of them gave 70% or more of their ballots to Biden, and two (Greene and Macon) gave him over 80%. However, the Great Migration saw most of these counties become rural and sparsely populated, with the exception of Montgomery County, home to the state capital of Montgomery.[36]

Trump easily outperformed these wins with victories in every other metropolitan area and the Birmingham suburbs. He won, in order of population, Mobile, Madison, Shelby, Tuscaloosa, and Baldwin counties, all of which are heavy population centers with powerfully Republican suburbs. Nonetheless, Biden's performances in Madison County (home to Huntsville) and Shelby County were the best of any Democrat since that of Jimmy Carter in 1980. Trump also carried all rural counties outside of the Black Belt; 18 counties gave him over 80% of the vote. He also carried the two swing counties of Barbour and Conecuh. Trump's largest margin was in the historically Republican Winston County, where he received 90.35% of the vote.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Alabama came from 88% of White born again/evangelical Christians, which comprised 53% of voters. Protestant voters backed Trump with 75% of the vote, Catholics with 59%, and other Christians with 63%. Expectedly, Biden had his greatest strength among other religious groups, whom he captured 56–43, and nonreligious voters, who backed him 60–38. 59% of voters believed abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, and these voters backed Trump by 84–15. Other policy divides were also evident: 48% of voters supported COVID-19 restrictions over economic harm, while 50% supported the opposite. These groups backed Biden 68–30 and Trump 90–7, respectively. 70% of voters believed racism is a significant issue in American society, and these voters decided to back Biden 50–48, but were usurped by the other 30% of voters who believed the opposite and gave 94% of their support to Trump.

As is the case in most Southern states, there was a stark racial divide in voting in this election, with Trump capturing 78% of white Alabamians and Biden winning 91% of black Alabamians. While Trump carried all gender, age, and education groups, Biden was most competitive among women (53% of voters, backing Trump 59–40), voters aged 18 to 29 (12% of voters, backing Trump 52–45), and postgraduates (11% of the electorate, backing Trump 53–44).[37]

This election corresponded with the 2020 U.S. Senate election in Alabama, where incumbent Democrat Doug Jones – who was elected by a 21,924 vote margin in a 2017 special election – ran for a full six-year term but was defeated by Republican football coach Tommy Tuberville. Despite losing, Jones outperformed Biden by 5.1 percentage points.

Exit polls

Edison

The following are estimates from exit polls conducted by the Edison Research for the National Election Pool (encompassing ABC News, CBS News, CNN, and NBC News) interviewing 1,201 Alabama voters, adjusted to match the actual vote count.[38]

2020 presidential election in Alabama by subgroup (Edison exit polling)[39]
Demographic subgroup Biden Trump % of

total vote

Total vote 36.57 62.03 99
Ideology
Liberals 91 8 14
Moderates 54 44 36
Conservatives 8 92 50
Party
Democrats 95 5 26
Republicans 2 97 53
Independents 49 44 21
Gender
Men 35 63 45
Women 39 61 55
Race/ethnicity
White 21 77 74
Black 89 11 22
Hispanic or Latino – – 3
Asian – – 0
Other – – 1
Age
18–29 years old 54 44 15
30–44 years old 40 57 23
45–64 years old 37 62 37
65 and older 23 77 25
Sexual orientation
LGBT – – 5
Heterosexual 32 66 95
Education
Never attended college 26 73 20
Some college education 40 60 25
Associate's degree 29 70 17
Bachelor's degree 40 57 23
Postgraduate degree 52 47 14
Income
Less than $50,000 35 65 37
$50,000 to $99,999 38 60 31
$100,000 or more 33 67 32
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality 93 5 18
Coronavirus – – 7
Economy 8 91 49
Crime and safety – – 15
Health care – – 7
Region
North 29 70 24
North Central 26 72 26
Birmingham/South Central 56 42 28
South 33 66 22
Area type
Urban 58 39 25
Suburban 27 72 56
Rural 37 61 20
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago 17 82 60
Worse than four years ago – – 11
About the same 64 34 27

Associated Press

The following are estimates from exit polls conducted by the University of Chicago for the Associated Press interviewing 1,905 likely voters in Alabama, adjusted to match the actual vote count.[40]

2020 presidential election in Alabama by subgroup (Associated Press exit polling)[40]
Demographic subgroup Biden Trump Jorgensen % of

total vote

Total vote 36.57 62.03 1.08 100
Ideology
Liberals 86 13 1 20
Moderates 55 42 2 28
Conservatives 7 92 1 51
Party
Democrats or lean Democrat 96 3 1 33
Republicans or lean Republican 4 94 1 63
Independents 54 40 4 4
Type of vote
Election Day 31 67 1 83
Mail 62 37 1 17
Vote in 2016
Hillary Clinton 97 2 1 27
Donald Trump 3 96 1 53
Someone else 54 30 12 4
Did not vote 41 57 1 16
Gender
Men 32 66 1 46
Women 40 59 1 53
Race/ethnicity
White 20 78 1 75
Black 91 8 1 22
Hispanic or Latino – – – 1
Asian – – – <1
American Indian, Native American, or Alaska Native – – – <1
Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander – – – <1
Other – – – 1
Age
18–24 years old 50 45 3 6
25–29 years old 39 59 1 6
30–39 years old 37 60 2 14
40–49 years old 44 55 1 15
50–64 years old 35 64 1 30
65 and older 30 69 <1 29
Religion
Protestant 23 75 1 40
Catholic 40 59 1 7
Mormon – – – 1
Other Christian 35 63 1 26
Jewish – – – 1
Muslim – – – <1
Something else 56 43 1 11
None 60 38 2 13
White evangelical or white-born again Christian
Yes 12 88 <1 53
No 52 46 1 47
Marital status
Married 31 68 1 52
Not married 48 52 1 48
Sexual orientation
LGBT – – – 9
Heterosexual 35 64 1 91
Education
High school or less 33 66 <1 33
Some college education or associate's degree 36 63 1 36
College graduate 39 58 3 20
Postgraduate degree 44 53 1 11
Total household income (2019)
Under $25,000 48 51 1 21
$25,000–$49,999 36 63 1 27
$50,000–$74,999 33 66 <1 18
$75,000–$99,999 30 68 2 14
Over $100,000 32 66 1 19
Union households
Yes – – – 8
No 35 63 2 92
Veteran households
Yes 30 69 <1 32
No 36 62 1 68
Issue regarded as most important
Economy and jobs 9 89 2 32
Healthcare 54 46 <1 9
Immigration – – – 5
Abortion – – – 3
Law enforcement – – – 5
Climate change – – – 1
Foreign policy – – – 1
COVID-19 pandemic 58 40 1 33
Racism 68 29 1 10
Area type
Urban 59 40 <1 13
Suburban 42 55 2 32
Small town 34 64 1 26
Rural 23 77 <1 30

See also

Notes

Шаблон:Notelist

Partisan clients

Шаблон:Notelist-ua

References

Шаблон:Reflist

Further reading

External links

Шаблон:2020 United States elections Шаблон:State results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election

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  30. ↑ "Most" as in the only non-Deep Southern state Goldwater winning being his native Arizona
  31. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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