Английская Википедия:2022 United States Senate election in Iowa
Шаблон:See alsoШаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Iowa sidebar The 2022 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 8, 2022 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa. Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley faced Democratic nominee Michael Franken.
Grassley was first elected in 1980 and was most recently re-elected in 2016. Grassley, who turned 89 years old on September 17, 2022, ran for reelection to an eighth term.[1] With U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy retiring the same year, he became the second-oldest person ever to be re-elected for another term (behind Strom Thurmond in 1996 at age 93), on 3 January 2023 upon the departure of Patrick Leahy from the United States Senate Chuck Grassley became the most senior member in the Senate, and on 4 January 2023 he became the longest-serving Republican senator in history (overtaking Orrin Hatch), as well as the most senior member of Congress since 3 January 2023. Grassley was reelected, thereby becoming the first Republican to win an eighth Senate term.[2]
Despite his victory, this was Grassley's closest Senate race since he was first elected in 1980 and the first election since that time in which he did not crack 60% of the vote. Franken also beat Grassley in Linn, Story, and Polk counties, all of which Grassley had won in every election since 1986. In addition, this election was the first time that Grassley lost Black Hawk County.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Chuck Grassley, incumbent U.S. Senator (1981–present) and president pro tempore emeritus (2021–present)[1]
Eliminated in primary
- Jim Carlin, state senator from the 3rd district (2017–2023)[3]
Declined
- Ashley Hinson, U.S. Representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2021–2023) (ran for re-election; endorsed Grassley)[4][5]
- Matthew Whitaker, former acting U.S. Attorney General, former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Iowa, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[6] (endorsed Grassley)[7]
Fundraising
| Candidate | Total receipts | Coverage ending |
|---|---|---|
| Chuck Grassley | $6,881,288 | Coverage ending: 05/18/2022[8] |
| Jim Carlin | $508,308 | Coverage ending: 05/18/2022[8] |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Michael Franken, retired U.S. Navy Admiral, former aide to U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[6][9][10][11]
Eliminated in primary
- Abby Finkenauer, former U.S. Representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2019–2021)[12]
- Glenn Hurst, Minden city councilor and chair of the Iowa Democratic Party Rural Caucus[13]
Withdrew
- Bob Krause, former state representative[14][15] (endorsed Franken)[16]
- Dave Muhlbauer, former Crawford County supervisor (2017–2021)[17][18] (endorsed Franken)[19]
Declined
- Cindy Axne, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2019–2023) (ran for re-election; endorsed Finkenauer)[20]
- Rob Sand, Iowa State Auditor (2019–present)[21][22] (ran for reelection)
- J. D. Scholten, former paralegal, former professional baseball player and nominee for Шаблон:Ushr in 2018 and 2020[23] (ran for state house)
Campaign
Former U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer was the original frontrunner in the Democratic primary, with her campaign being backed by several prominent politicians and labor unions, as well as the influential political action committee EMILY's List.[24] However, retired vice-admiral Michael Franken managed to slowly overtake her as the perceived frontrunner, assisted by an effective campaign that highlighted his leadership credentials.[24]
Fundraising
| Candidate | Total receipts | Coverage ending |
|---|---|---|
| Abby Finkenauer | $3,740,881 | Coverage ending: 05/18/2022[8] |
| Michael Franken | $2,863,882 | Coverage ending: 05/18/2022[8] |
| Glenn Hurst | $129,618 | Coverage ending: 05/18/2022[8] |
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
- Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Abby Finkenauer |
Michael Franken |
Glenn Hurst |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | May 4–8, 2022 | 866 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|42% | 4% | 14% |
| Change Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | April 6–11, 2022 | 416 (LV) | ± 6.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|53% | 26% | 7% | 14% |
| GBAO (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | March 30 – April 3, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|64% | 15% | 6% | 15% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[25] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 7, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[26] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 25, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 31, 2022 |
| Politico[28] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 18, 2022 |
| RCP[29] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 15, 2022 |
| Fox News[30] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 22, 2022 |
| DDHQ[31] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | July 20, 2022 |
| 538[32] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | September 6, 2022 |
| The Economist[33] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | September 7, 2022 |
Debates
| Шаблон:Abbr | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Шаблон:Colors Participant Шаблон:Colors Absent Шаблон:Colors Non-invitee Шаблон:Colors Invitee
Шаблон:Color box Withdrawn |
scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| | |||||
| Chuck Grassley | Michael Franken | |||||
| 1 | October 6, 2022 | Iowa PBS | O. Kay Henderson | Youtube | Шаблон:Yes | Шаблон:Yes |
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Michael Franken (D) |
Undecided Шаблон:Efn |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight | October 2 – November 8, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51.8% | 42.2% | 6.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Grassley +9.6 |
| 270towin | October 26 – November 5, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|53.0% | 42.7% | 4.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Grassley +10.3 |
| Average | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52.4% | 42.5% | 5.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Grassley +9.9 | ||
- Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Michael Franken (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer & Co. | October 31 – November 3, 2022 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|53% | 41% | 4%Шаблон:Efn | 2% |
| Cygnal (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | October 26–27, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|54% | 43% | – | 3% |
| Civiqs | October 22–25, 2022 | 623 (LV) | ± 5.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% | 44% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 2% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | October 15–19, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|53% | 42% | – | 4% |
| Change Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | October 14–18, 2022 | 1,008 (LV) | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% | 45% | – | 6% |
| Selzer & Co. | October 9–12, 2022 | 620 (LV) | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% | 43% | 8%Шаблон:Efn | 3% |
| Emerson College | October 2–4, 2022 | 959 (LV) | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% | 38% | 4% | 9% |
| Cygnal (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | October 2–4, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|54% | 40% | – | 6% |
| Change Research (D) Шаблон:WebarchiveШаблон:Efn-ua | September 3–8, 2022 | 1,143 (LV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% | 44% | – | 8% |
| Cygnal (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | July 13–14, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% | 43% | – | 5% |
| Selzer & Co. | July 10–13, 2022 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% | 39% | 7% | 5% |
| Change Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | June 30 – July 4, 2022 | 1,488 (LV) | ± 2.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% | 44% | – | 7% |
| Change Research (D) Шаблон:WebarchiveШаблон:Efn-ua | April 6–11, 2022 | 1,070 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | 42% | – | 13% |
- Chuck Grassley vs. Abby Finkenauer
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Abby Finkenauer (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore Information Group (R) | March 8–13, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | 36% | 6% | 14% |
| Cygnal (R) Шаблон:WebarchiveШаблон:Efn-ua | February 20–22, 2022 | 610 (LV) | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|53% | 39% | – | 8% |
| Data for Progress (D) | December 2–13, 2021 | 770 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|53% | 39% | – | 8% |
| Cygnal (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | October 18–19, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|55% | 39% | – | 6% |
| Selzer & Co. | September 12–15, 2021 | 620 (LV) | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|55% | 37% | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 7% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Black Hawk (largest city: Waterloo)
- Linn (largest city: Cedar Rapids)
- Polk (largest city: Des Moines)
- Story (largest city: Ames)
By congressional district
Grassley won all 4 congressional districts.[34]
| District | Grassley | Franken | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 53% | 47% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Mariannette Miller-Meeks |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 55% | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Ashley Hinson |
| rowspan=2 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 51% | 48% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Cindy Axne (117th Congress) |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Zach Nunn (118th Congress) | |||
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 66% | 34% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Randy Feenstra |
See also
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
External links
- Official campaign websites
Шаблон:2022 United States elections
- ↑ 1,0 1,1 Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
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