Английская Википедия:2014 Maryland gubernatorial election
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:See also Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Maryland sidebar The 2014 Maryland gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Maryland. Incumbent Democratic governor Martin O'Malley was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third consecutive term.
Gubernatorial candidates pick their running mates, with the two then running together on the same ticket. Primary elections were held on June 24, 2014. The Democrats nominated incumbent lieutenant governor Anthony Brown and Howard County Executive Kenneth Ulman, while the Republicans nominated former State Secretary of Appointments Larry Hogan and former State Secretary of General Services and former Assistant U.S. Secretary of Agriculture for Administration Boyd Rutherford.
Brown predicted that winning the general election would be just "a little bit of a molehill",[1] but he lost to Hogan by a margin of 65,510 votes in the Democratic-leaning state.[2] The Washington Post called the result "a stunning upset" and Republican Governors Association Chairman Chris Christie called it "the biggest upset in the entire country."[3]
Background
Maryland is considered one of the most Democratic states in the country, and Bob Ehrlich, elected in 2002, had been the only Republican elected Governor of Maryland since Spiro Agnew in 1966. Ehrlich was defeated for reelection in 2006 by Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley and lost a rematch with O'Malley by a wider margin in 2010.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Running mate: Kenneth Ulman, Howard County Executive[5]
- Running mate: Jolene Ivey, State Delegate[7]
- Ralph Jaffe, teacher and perennial candidate[8]
- Running mate: Freda Jaffe, sister of Ralph Jaffe[8]
- Heather Mizeur, State Delegate[9]
- Running mate: Delman Coates, Senior Pastor of the Mt. Ennon Baptist Church[10]
- Charles U. Smith, perennial candidate[11]
- Running mate: Clarence Tucker[11]
- Cindy Walsh, blogger[12]
- Running mate: Mary Elizabeth Wingate-Pennacchia
Declined
- John Delaney, U.S. Representative (ran for re-election)[13][14][15]
- Peter Franchot, Comptroller of Maryland (ran for re-election)[16]
- Dutch Ruppersberger, U.S. Representative (ran for re-election)[17]
- Kenneth Ulman, Howard County Executive (ran for Lieutenant Governor on Anthony Brown's ticket)[5]
Endorsements
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Anthony Brown |
Peter Franchot |
Doug Gansler |
Heather Mizeur |
Kenneth Ulman |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington Post | June 5–8, 2014 | 487 | ± 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | — | 23% | 16% | — | — | 16% |
Baltimore Sun | May 31 – June 3, 2014 | 499 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% | — | 20% | 15% | — | — | 15% |
WPA Opinion Research** | May 6–7, 2014 | ? | ± ? | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 34% | — | 20% | 7% | — | 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 40% |
St. Mary's College | April 10–13, 2014 | 502 | ± ? | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 27.1% | — | 10.8% | 7.7% | — | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 54.3% |
Washington Post | February 13–16, 2014 | 469 | ± 5.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 34% | — | 15% | 8% | — | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 43% |
Baltimore Sun | February 8–12, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 35% | — | 14% | 10% | — | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 40% |
Gonzales Research | October 1–14, 2013 | 403 | ± 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 40.7% | — | 21.1% | 5.2% | — | — | 33% |
GarinHartYang* | September 11–15, 2013 | 608 | ± 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | — | 21% | 5% | — | — | 31% |
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | — | 24% | — | — | — | 30% | ||||
WPA Opinion Research** | September 10–11, 2013 | ? | ± ? | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 40% | — | 22% | 7% | — | — | 38% |
NormingtonPets^ | December 3–5, 2012 | ? | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 22% | 13% | 8% | — | 4% | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 53% |
GarinHartYang* | September 12–13, 2012 | 504 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 31% | 14% | 18% | — | 4% | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 33% |
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 37% | — | 23% | — | 5% | — | 35% | ||||
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% | — | 25% | — | — | — | 34% |
- ** Internal poll for the Larry Hogan campaign
- * Internal poll for the Anthony Brown campaign
- ^ Internal poll for the Peter Franchot campaign
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Running mate: Jeannie Haddaway, State Delegate[19]
- Ron George, State Delegate[20]
- Larry Hogan, former State Secretary of Appointments[22]
- Running mate: Boyd Rutherford, former State Secretary of General Services and former Assistant U.S. Secretary of Agriculture for Administration[23]
- Charles Lollar, former chairman of the Charles County Republican Central Committee and nominee for Maryland's 5th congressional district in 2010[24]
- Running mate: Kenneth R. Timmerman, investigative reporter, conservative activist and nominee for Maryland's 8th congressional district in 2012[25]
Disqualified
- Running mate: Duane "Shorty" Davis, activist[27]
Withdrew
- Blaine Young, president of the Frederick County Board of Commissioners[28]
Declined
- Dan Bongino, former United States Secret Service agent and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012 (ran for Congress)[29]
- Nancy Jacobs, state senator[30][31]
- John R. Leopold, former Anne Arundel County Executive[30][32]
- Marty Madden, former state senator[30]
- Meyer Marks, political activist[29][33]
- E. J. Pipkin, Minority Leader of the Maryland Senate and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004[34]
- Michael Steele, former lieutenant governor, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2006 and former chairman of the Republican National Committee[35]
Endorsements
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Craig |
Ron George |
Larry Hogan |
Charles Lollar |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington Post | June 5–8, 2014 | 228 | ± 7.5% | 19% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 35% | 13% | 3% | 29% |
Baltimore Sun | May 31 – June 3, 2014 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 12% | 6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 27% | 12% | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 37% |
St. Mary's College | April 10–13, 2014 | 270 | ± ? | 7.8% | 3.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 16% | 3.8% | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 68.6% |
Washington Post | February 13–16, 2014 | 290 | ± 7% | 13% | 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 17% | 10% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 57% |
Baltimore Sun | February 8–12, 2014 | 499 | ± 4.4% | 7% | 6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 13% | 5% | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 69% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
General election
Candidates
- Larry Hogan (Republican Party), former State Secretary of Appointments
- Running mate: Boyd Rutherford, former State Secretary of General Services and former Assistant U.S. Secretary of Agriculture for Administration
- Anthony Brown (Democratic Party), Lieutenant Governor of Maryland
- Running mate: Kenneth Ulman, Howard County Executive
- Shawn Quinn (Libertarian Party), candidate for the House of Delegates in 2010[12]
- Running mate: Lorenzo Gaztanaga, perennial candidate
Campaign
Hogan heavily criticized Brown for his handling of Maryland's health care exchange as a part of the Affordable Care Act, labeling him as "the most incompetent man in Maryland."[36] The Maryland Health Benefit Exchange enrolled fewer than 4,000 people.[37]
Hogan avoided social issues by promising not to touch the state's abortion or gun control laws.[38] Campaign ads were a significant part of the first debate, culminating in Hogan's call for Brown to "apologize to the women of Maryland for trying to scare them."
Brown pledged no new taxes, no increased taxes, and a look at state spending if elected. Hogan responded by citing O'Malley/Brown's same claim in the 2010 election and how that claim was followed by "40 consecutive tax hikes."[39] Brown said there have been times he has disagreed with O'Malley, like on mortgage reduction.[40] "Brown did not stay to take questions from reporters" and both candidates accused the other of not telling the truth.[41]
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 7, 2014 – C-SPAN
- Complete video of debate, October 18, 2014 – YouTube
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[42] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2014 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[43] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2014 |
Rothenberg Political Report[44] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2014 |
Real Clear Politics[45] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Anthony Brown (D) |
Larry Hogan (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WPA Opinion Research* | October 20–24, 2014 | 500 | ± 3.5% | 39% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% | — | 17% |
Gonzales Research | October 20–24, 2014 | 822 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 44% | 2%[46] | 18% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | October 16–23, 2014 | 1,086 | ± 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | 38% | 0% | 11% |
WPA Opinion Research* | October 19–20, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% | 41% | — | 15% |
Gravis Marketing | October 6–9, 2014 | 784 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 43% | — | 11% |
Baltimore Sun | October 4–8, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 42% | — | 9% |
Washington Post | October 2–5, 2014 | 549 LV | ± 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | 38% | 4%[46] | 11% |
807 RV | ± 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% | 31% | 6%[46] | 19% | ||
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 1,096 | ± 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% | 38% | 1% | 7% |
Gonzales Research | September 16–23, 2014 | 805 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | 43% | 1%[46] | 9% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 1,082 | ± 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | 37% | 3% | 10% |
OnMessage, Inc.* | August 18–19, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.38 | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | 42% | 4%[46] | 9% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | July 5–24, 2014 | 1,409 | ± ? | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | 39% | 2% | 6% |
Rasmussen Reports | July 9–10, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | 35% | 7% | 10% |
Washington Post | June 5–8, 2014 | 962 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | 33% | — | 16% |
WPA Opinion Research* | May 6–7, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% | 35% | — | 23% |
WPA Opinion Research* | September 10–11, 2013 | ? | ± ? | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 32% | — | 22% |
- * Internal poll for the Larry Hogan campaign
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box gain with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
By county
Source:[47]
County | Brown | Votes | Hogan | Votes | Others | Votes | Totals | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Allegany | 22.60% | 4,629 | 75.25% | 15,410 | 2.14% | 439 | 20,478 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Anne Arundel | 32.16% | 58,001 | 66.10% | 119,195 | 1.74% | 3,142 | 180,338 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Baltimore | 38.89% | 102,734 | 59.03% | 155,936 | 2.07% | 5,473 | 264,143 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | Baltimore City | 75.50% | 106,213 | 21.92% | 30,845 | 2.58% | 3,628 | 140,686 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Calvert | 29.11% | 9,579 | 69.11% | 22,739 | 1.78% | 586 | 32,904 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Caroline | 20.97% | 1,931 | 77.58% | 7,144 | 1.44% | 133 | 9,208 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Carroll | 16.07% | 10,349 | 82.20% | 52,951 | 1.74% | 1,119 | 64,419 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Cecil | 20.43% | 5,467 | 77.33% | 20,699 | 2.24% | 600 | 26,766 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | Charles | 51.83% | 24,601 | 46.91% | 22,268 | 1.26% | 600 | 47,469 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Dorchester | 30.51% | 3,252 | 68.26% | 7,276 | 1.24% | 132 | 10,660 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Frederick | 34.57% | 27,682 | 63.34% | 50,715 | 2.09% | 1,675 | 80,072 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Garrett | 17.80% | 1,634 | 79.71% | 7,319 | 2.49% | 229 | 9,182 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Harford | 21.66% | 19,814 | 76.52% | 69,986 | 1.82% | 1,660 | 91,460 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Howard | 46.68% | 49,227 | 51.54% | 54,353 | 1.78% | 1,873 | 105,453 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Kent | 33.56% | 2,603 | 64.58% | 5,009 | 1.86% | 144 | 7,756 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | Montgomery | 61.81% | 163,694 | 36.75% | 97,312 | 1.44% | 3,813 | 264,819 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | Prince George's | 84.23% | 184,950 | 14.86% | 32,619 | 0.91% | 2,003 | 219,572 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Queen Anne's | 19.34% | 3,757 | 79.46% | 15,436 | 1.20% | 233 | 19,426 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | St. Mary's | 25.20% | 8,203 | 72.72% | 23,675 | 2.09% | 679 | 32,557 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Somerset | 31.86% | 2,135 | 66.38% | 4,448 | 1.16% | 78 | 6,701 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Talbot | 29.03% | 4,420 | 69.72% | 10,616 | 1.25% | 190 | 15,226 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Washington | 24.89% | 9,661 | 73.33% | 28,469 | 1.78% | 691 | 38,821 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Wicomico | 34.07% | 8,833 | 64.30% | 16,669 | 1.63% | 422 | 25,924 | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Worcester | 28.85% | 5,521 | 69.35% | 13,271 | 1.80% | 345 | 19,137 |
- Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Baltimore County (largest municipality: Dundalk)
- Howard (largest municipality: Columbia)
By congressional district
Hogan won 5 of the state's 8 congressional districts, including 4 that elected Democrats.[48]Шаблон:Verify source
District | Hogan | Brown | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 77.96% | 20.41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Andy Harris |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 56.59% | 41.27% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Dutch Ruppersberger |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 54.99% | 42.93% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|John Sarbanes |
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr | 33.72% | 65.16% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Donna Edwards |
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr | 47.23% | 51.31% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Steny Hoyer |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 58.27% | 39.85% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|John Delaney |
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr | 38.30% | 59.58% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Elijah Cummings |
rowspan=2 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 49.71% | 48.70% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Chris Van Hollen |
See also
- 2014 United States elections
- 2014 Maryland Attorney General election
- 2014 Maryland Comptroller election
References
External links
- Official campaign websites (archived)
- Larry Hogan for Governor
- Anthony Brown for Governor
- David R. Craig for Governor
- Doug Gansler for Governor
- Ron George for Governor
- Ralph Jaffe for Governor
- Charles Lollar for Governor
- Heather Mizeur for Governor
- Brian Vaeth for Governor
- Cindy Walsh for Governor
Шаблон:Elections in Maryland footer Шаблон:2014 United States elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 5,0 5,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 8,0 8,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 11,0 11,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 12,0 12,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ 29,0 29,1 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 30,0 30,1 30,2 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ 46,0 46,1 46,2 46,3 46,4 Shawn Quinn (L)
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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