Английская Википедия:2014 United States Senate election in Louisiana

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Louisiana

The 2014 United States Senate election in Louisiana was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Louisiana.

Incumbent senator Mary Landrieu ran for re-election to a fourth term in office against U.S. Representative Bill Cassidy and several other candidates.

Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party and voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar "top two primary" system). Since no candidate received a majority of the vote in the primary election, a runoff election was held on December 6, 2014 between the top two candidates, Landrieu and Cassidy.[1]

In the December 6 runoff, Cassidy defeated Landrieu by 11.86 percentage points (55.93% to 44.07%), settling the fate of the final Senate seat of the 2014 midterms, becoming the first Republican to hold this seat since 1883, and giving Senate Republicans 54 seats in the 114th Congress.[2] This marked the first time since the resignation of William Pitt Kellogg in 1872 that both of Louisiana's Senate seats were held by Republicans, and rendered Cedric Richmond as Louisiana’s only congressional Democrat.

Background

Elections in Louisiana, with the exception of U.S. presidential elections, follow a variation of the open primary system called the jungle primary. Candidates of any and all parties are listed on one ballot; voters need not limit themselves to the candidates of one party. Unless one candidate takes more than 50% of the vote in the first round, a run-off election is then held between the top two candidates, who may in fact be members of the same party. This scenario occurred in the 7th District congressional race in 1996, when Democrats Chris John and Hunter Lundy made the runoff for the open seat, and in 1999, when Republicans Suzanne Haik Terrell and Woody Jenkins made the runoff for Commissioner of Elections.

Candidates

Democratic Party

Declared

Withdrew

  • Raymond Brown, minister, civil rights activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 1998 and 2002 (endorsed Landrieu)[7][8]

Declined

Republican Party

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Libertarian Party

Declared

  • Brannon McMorris, electrical engineer[27]

Jungle primary

Debates

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Polling

Шаблон:Graph:Chart

Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Mary
Landrieu (D)
Bill
Cassidy (R)
Paul
Hollis (R)
Rob
Maness (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 24% 5% 23%
Southern Media & Opinion Research November 6–12, 2013 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 34% 10% 16%
Harper Polling January 19–20, 2014 992 ± 3.11% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 29% 4% 4% 20%
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 25% 5% 3% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided | 25%
Magellan Strategies March 24–26, 2014 600 ± 4.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 26% 3% 3% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided | 28%
Harper Polling April 7–9, 2014 538 ± 4.22% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 35% 3% 4% 18%
New York Times/Kaiser Family April 8–15, 2014 946 ± ? Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 18% 5% 4% 3% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided | 27%
Southern Media & Opinion Research April 28–30, 2014 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 35% 4% 7% 18%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner May 5–8, 2014 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 29% 8% 7% 8%
Public Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014 664 ± 3.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 27% 5% 8% 17%
Senate Conservatives Fund August 16–18, 2014 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 32% 16% 1% 8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014 870 ± 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 38% 10% 3%[28] 11%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner August 28 – September 2, 2014 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 47% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 32% 13% 8%
Gravis Marketing September 5–9, 2014 426 ± 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 30% 14% 12%
Fox News September 14–16, 2014 617 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 31% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 35% 7% 16%
CNN/ORC September 22–25, 2014 610 LV ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 40% 9% 4% 4%
866 RV ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 35% 8% 6% 5%
Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 2014 1,141 ± 2.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 34% 12% 2% 10%
Hickman Analytics September 26 – October 2, 2014 502 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 30% 6% 5%[29] 19%
0ptimus September 30 – October 2, 2014 5,711 ± 1.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 36% 18% 9%
Rasmussen Reports October 13–14, 2014 965 ± 3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 38% 14% 2% 5%
Vox Populi Polling October 13–14, 2014 546 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 38% 10% 6%[30] 8%
Multi-Quest International October 14–19, 2014 605 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 32% 6% 3% 23%
Rasmussen Reports October 22–23, 2014 988 ± 3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 36% 13% 3% 6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 1,316 ± 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 37% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 32% 5% 5%[31] 19%
University of New Orleans October 11–24, 2014 590 ± 4.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 33% 7% 1% 21%
Suffolk University October 23–26, 2014 500 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 35% 11% 3%[32] 15%
NBC News/Marist October 26–30, 2014 630 LV ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 36% 15% 1% 4%
961 RV ± 3.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 35% 15% 1% 6%
Public Policy Polling October 30 – November 1, 2014 1,003 ± 3.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 35% 15% 1% 6%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Jungle primary
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Mary
Landrieu (D)
Bill
Cassidy (R)
Paul
Hollis (R)
Rob
Maness (R)
Phil
Robertson (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 21% 5% 4% 13% 18%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Mary
Landrieu (D)
Bill
Cassidy (R)
John
Fleming (R)
Elbert
Guillory (R)
Chas
Roemer (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 47% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 20% 6% 2% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided | 25%
Public Opinion Strategies^ March 3–5, 2013 500 ± 4.38% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 47% 14% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 15% 6% 18%
  • ^ Internal poll for John Fleming Campaign
Republican primary
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Bill
Cassidy (R)
Chas
Roemer (R)
Undecided
Harper Polling April 6–7, 2013 541 ± 4.21% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 38% 14% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided | 48%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Runoff

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[33] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 21, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] Шаблон:USRaceRating December 4, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[35] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 6, 2014
Real Clear Politics[36] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 19, 2014

Polling

Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Mary
Landrieu (D)
Bill
Cassidy (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 50% 40% 10%
Harper Polling April 6–7, 2013 541 ± 4.21% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% 41% 13%
On Message Inc.Шаблон:Dead link August 13–15, 2013 600 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 45% 43% 12%
Harper Polling August 14–15, 2013 596 ± 4.01% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% 8%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 50% 40% 10%
Harper Polling September 22–23, 2013 561 ± 4.14% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% 44% 10%
Public Policy Polling October 14–15, 2013 632 ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% 41% 11%
Harper Polling January 19–20, 2014 992 ± 3.11% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 45% 11%
Rasmussen Reports January 28–29, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 44% 5% 11%
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 45% 44% 10%
Hickman Analytics February 17–24, 2014 404 ± 4.9% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 46% 11%
Voter/Consumer Research February 20–25, 2014 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 45% 44% 1% 9%
Harper Polling April 7–9, 2014 538 ± 4.22% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% 10%
Magellan Strategies April 14–15, 2014 775 ± 3.52% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 44% 10% 4%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner May 5–8, 2014 600 ± 4% 49% 49% 2%
Magellan Strategies June 5–8, 2014 719 ± 3.65% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50% 5% 1%
Public Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014 664 ± 3.8% 47% 47% 6%
Rasmussen Reports July 8–9, 2014 750 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% 43% 5% 6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 1,456 ± 3.5% 46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% 6% 2%
Senate Conservatives Fund August 16–18, 2014 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 49% 43% 8%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner August 28 – September 2, 2014 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% 46% 6%
Rasmussen Reports September 2–3, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 44% 9% 6%
Gravis Marketing September 5–9, 2014 426 ± 5% 45% 45% 10%
Fox News September 14–16, 2014 617 ± 4% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 51% 9%
CNN/ORC September 22–25, 2014 610 LV ± 4% 47% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50% 3%
866 RV ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 51% 45% 4%
Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 2014 1,141 ± 2.9% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48% 7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 2,187 ± 2% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% 0% 13%
Hickman Analytics September 26 – October 2, 2014 502 ± 4.4% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 46% 9%
Rasmussen Reports October 13–14, 2014 965 ± 3% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 52% 5%
Vox Populi Polling October 13–14, 2014 546 ± 4.2% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48% 8%
Multi-Quest International October 14–19, 2014 605 ± 4% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 43% 17%
Rasmussen Reports October 22–23, 2014 988 ± 3% 46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50% 4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 1,316 ± 5% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 46% 0% 12%
University of New Orleans October 11–24, 2014 590 ± 4.1% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 51% 6%
Suffolk University October 23–26, 2014 500 ± 4% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48% 11%
NBC News/Marist October 26–30, 2014 630 LV ± 3.9% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50% 1% 5%
961 RV ± 3.2% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 49% 2% 6%
Public Policy Polling October 30 – November 1, 2014 1,003 ± 3.1% 47% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48% 5%
Gravis Marketing November 12–14, 2014 643 ± 4% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 59% 3%
Vox Populi Polling November 16–17, 2014 761 ± 3.55% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 53% 5%
Rasmussen Reports November 16–19, 2014 1,000 ± 3% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 56% 3%
JJMC Analytics November 20, 2014 754 ± 3.6% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 55% 5%
GEB International November 20, 2014 850 ± 3.36% 34% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 60% 6%
WPA Opinion Research November 24–25, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 33% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 57% 10%
Rasmussen Reports December 2–4, 2014 1,000 ± 3% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 56% 4%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Mary
Landrieu (D)
Charles
Boustany (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% 42% 10%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Mary
Landrieu (D)
Jay
Dardenne (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% 43% 11%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Mary
Landrieu (D)
John
Fleming (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 50% 38% 12%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Mary
Landrieu (D)
Elbert
Guillory (R)
Undecided
Harper Polling August 14–15, 2013 596 ± 4.01% 44% 44% 11%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 50% 36% 14%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Mary
Landrieu (D)
Paul
Hollis (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% 42% 10%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Mary
Landrieu (D)
Bobby
Jindal (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 49% 41% 10%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Mary
Landrieu (D)
Jeff
Landry (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% 39% 13%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Mary
Landrieu (D)
Rob
Maness (R)
Other Undecided
Harper Polling August 14–15, 2013 596 ± 4.01% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 47% 41% 12%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 50% 37% 13%
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 47% 42% 10%
Senate Conservatives Fund August 16–18, 2014 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% 44% 8%
CNN/ORC September 22–25, 2014 610 LV ± 4% 48% 48% 4%
866 RV ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 53% 42% 5%
NBC News/Marist October 26–30, 2014 630 LV ± 3.9% 46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50% 1% 4%
961 RV ± 3.2% 46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% 1% 5%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Mary
Landrieu (D)
Phil
Robertson (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 46% 12%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Mary
Landrieu (D)
Chas
Roemer (R)
Undecided
Harper Polling April 6–7, 2013 541 ± 4.21% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% 33% 21%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Mary
Landrieu (D)
Steve
Scalise (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% 38% 14%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box gain with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

Parishes that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Cassidy won 5 of the 6 congressional districts in Louisiana.

District Cassidy Landrieu Representative
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 65.64% 34.36% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Steve Scalise
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 19.64% 80.36% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Cedric Richmond
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 66.19% 33.81% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Charles Boustany
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 58.38% 41.62% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|John Fleming
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 60.96% 39.04% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Ralph Abraham
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 64.03% 35.97% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Garret Graves

See also

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Шаблон:Louisiana elections Шаблон:2014 United States elections

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  28. Thomas Clements 2%, Brannon McMorris 1%, Other 0%
  29. Wayne Ables (D) 0%, Thomas Clements (R) 1%, Brannon McMorris (L) 3%, Vallian Senegal (D) 0%, William Waymire (D) 1%
  30. Brannon McMorris (L) 2%, Other 4%
  31. Wayne Ables (D) 0%, Raymond Brown (D) 1%, Thomas Clements (R) 1%, Brannon McMorris (L) 3%, Vallian Senegal (D) 0%, William Waymire (D) 0%, Other 0%
  32. Wayne Ables (D) 1%, Thomas Clements (R) 1%, Brannon McMorris (L) 1%, Vallian Senegal (D) 0%, William Waymire (D) 0%
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