Английская Википедия:2016 United States Senate election in Iowa
Шаблон:See alsoШаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsIA The 2016 United States Senate election in Iowa was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley won reelection to a seventh term in office. Primary elections were held June 7, 2016,[1] with Grassley facing no primary opposition, and former lieutenant governor Patty Judge winning the Democratic nomination. Grassley won a seventh term in a sixth consecutive landslide and outperformed Donald Trump, who also won the state that year; nevertheless, this represented Grassley's worst re-election performance at the time since his first race in 1980, until 6 years later when Michael Franken would not only make Grassley fall below 60% of the vote, but also cut his winning percentage in half and flip several counties (namely Black Hawk, Linn, Story and Polk) that Grassley carried in this election.[2]
Background
Republican Chuck Grassley was first elected to the Senate in 1980, defeating Democratic incumbent John Culver by 53% to 46%. Since then, Grassley has been re-elected five times, most recently in 2010, on each occasion taking at least 64% of the vote.
Despite speculation that Grassley, who turned 83 years old in 2016, might retire,[3] he announced in September 2013 that he was "making plans to run for re-election", but added that "it's not taking much of my time. I'm concentrating on doing my job for Iowans."[4]
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Chuck Grassley, incumbent senator[4][5]
Withdrawn
Declined
- Pat Grassley, state representative and grandson of Chuck Grassley[9]
- Steve King, U.S. Representative[10]
- Tom Latham, former U.S. Representative[10]
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Tom Fiegen, former state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[5]
- Rob Hogg, state senator[11]
- Patty Judge, former lieutenant governor and former Iowa Secretary of Agriculture[12][13][14]
- Bob Krause, former state representative, nominee for state treasurer in 1978, candidate for Mayor of Waterloo in 1982 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[15]
Withdrawn
- Ray Zirkelbach, former state representative[16][17]
Declined
- Christie Vilsack, former First Lady of Iowa and nominee for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 2012[9]
- Tom Vilsack, United States Secretary of Agriculture and former governor of Iowa[10]
- Chet Culver, former governor of Iowa[9][18]
- Michael Gronstal, Majority Leader of the Iowa Senate and Chairman of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee[9][19]
- Dave Loebsack, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)[10][20]
- Andy McGuire, chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2006[5]
- Tyler Olson, former state representative, former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party, and candidate for governor in 2014[21][22]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Patty Judge |
Rob Hogg |
Bob Krause |
Tom Fiegen |
None/Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Des Moines Register | May 30 – June 2, 2016 | 542 | ± 4.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 42% | 25% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 15% |
KBUR-AM 1490 | May 31 – June 1, 2016 | 1,361 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 37% | 31% | 3% | 6% | – | 23% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[23] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2016 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 7, 2016 |
Rothenberg Political Report[25] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2016 |
Daily Kos[26] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 8, 2016 |
Real Clear Politics[27] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 7, 2016 |
Debates
Dates | Location | Grassley | Judge | Link |
---|---|---|---|---|
October 19, 2016 | Sioux City, Iowa | Шаблон:Yes | Шаблон:Yes | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Patty Judge (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,781 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% | 39% | — | 4% |
SurveyMonkey | Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 | 1,598 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% | 39% | — | 5% |
Des Moines Register/Selzer | November 1–4, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% | 33% | 2% | 4% |
Emerson College | November 1–3, 2016 | 700 | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 60% | 32% | 4% | 5% |
Loras College Шаблон:Webarchive | November 1–3, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% | 37% | 1% | 8% |
SurveyMonkey | Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 | 1,469 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% | 39% | — | 4% |
SurveyMonkey | Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 | 1,226 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% | 40% | — | 3% |
SurveyMonkey | Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 | 867 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% | 41% | — | 3% |
SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 984 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% | 41% | — | 3% |
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive | October 20–26, 2016 | 791 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% | 38% | — | 5% |
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Шаблон:Webarchive | October 8–16, 2016 | 1,135 | ± 0.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% | 40% | — | 5% |
Google Consumer Surveys | October 12–14, 2016 | 523 | ± 4.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% | 41% | — | 3% |
The Times-Picayune/Lucid | October 7–10, 2016 | 917 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 39% | — | 11% |
Des Moines Register/Selzer | October 3–6, 2016 | 642 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% | 36% | 2% | 6% |
Loras College | September 20–22, 2016 | 491 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% | 37% | — | 9% |
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive | September 13–21, 2016 | 612 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% | 43% | — | 2% |
Monmouth University | September 12–14, 2016 | 404 | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% | 39% | 2% | 3% |
RABA Research Шаблон:Webarchive | September 6–8, 2016 | 1,054 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% | 37% | — | 13% |
Emerson College | Aug 31–Sept 1, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 40% | 3% | 6% |
Public Policy Polling Шаблон:Webarchive | August 30–31, 2016 | 827 | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 43% | — | 8% |
CBS News/YouGov | August 17–19, 2016 | 987 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 45% | 38% | 1% | 15% |
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive | August 9–16, 2016 | 846 | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 42% | — | 6% |
Suffolk University | August 8–10, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 42% | — | 6% |
NBC/WSJ/Marist | August 3–7, 2016 | 899 | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 42% | 1% | 5% |
CBS News/YouGov | July 13–15, 2016 | 998 | ± 4.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 45% | 37% | 2% | 16% |
Monmouth University | July 8–11, 2016 | 401 | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 42% | — | 6% |
NBC/WSJ/Marist | July 5–10, 2016 | 822 | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 42% | 1% | 5% |
Loras College Шаблон:Webarchive | June 24–28, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% | 45% | — | 9% |
Public Policy Polling | June 22–23, 2016 | 897 | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% | 39% | — | 14% |
Public Policy Polling | June 9–13, 2016 | 630 | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 41% | — | 11% |
- with Rob Hogg
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Rob Hogg (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | January 8–10, 2016 | 1,901 | ± 2.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 28% | 19% |
Public Policy Polling | December 10–13, 2015 | 1,426 | ± 2.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% | 29% | 17% |
Public Policy Polling | October 30–November 1, 2015 | 1,668 | ± 2.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% | 29% | 18% |
Public Policy Polling | August 7–9, 2015 | 1,500 | ± 2.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 28% | 20% |
- with Tom Fiegen
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Tom Fiegen (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | January 8–10, 2016 | 1,901 | ± 2.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% | 29% | 18% |
Public Policy Polling | December 10–13, 2015 | 1,426 | ± 2.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% | 29% | 16% |
Public Policy Polling | October 30–November 1, 2015 | 1,668 | ± 2.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% | 30% | 16% |
Public Policy Polling | August 7–9, 2015 | 1,500 | ± 2.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% | 30% | 17% |
- with Bob Krause
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Bob Krause (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | January 8–10, 2016 | 1,901 | ± 2.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 28% | 20% |
Public Policy Polling | December 10–13, 2015 | 1,426 | ± 2.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% | 28% | 19% |
Public Policy Polling | October 30–November 1, 2015 | 1,668 | ± 2.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 28% | 21% |
Public Policy Polling | August 7–9, 2015 | 1,500 | ± 2.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 29% | 20% |
- with Tom Vilsack
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Tom Vilsack (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | September 25–28, 2014 | 1,192 | ± 2.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 42% | 7% |
Public Policy Polling | May 15–19, 2014 | 914 | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 39% | 12% |
Public Policy Polling | February 20–23, 2014 | 869 | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 41% | 11% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
References
External links
- Official campaign websites (Archived)
Шаблон:2016 United States elections
- ↑ Iowa Secretary of State, Primary Election, sos.iowa.gov
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 4,0 4,1 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 5,0 5,1 5,2 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 9,0 9,1 9,2 9,3 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 10,0 10,1 10,2 10,3 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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