Английская Википедия:2016 United States presidential election in Arizona

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Main Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsAZ

Файл:Arizona 2016 presidential results by county.png
Results by county showing number of votes by size, and candidates by color
Файл:United States presidential election in Arizona, 2016.svg
Treemap of the popular vote by county

The 2016 United States presidential election in Arizona was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Arizona voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]

Despite the rest of the country swinging to the right, Arizona decreased its margin of victory from 9.0% in 2012[2] to only 3.5% in 2016, thus making it one of 11 states (along with the District of Columbia) to do so. Trump's margin of victory in Arizona was the smallest for any Republican who won the presidency since Arizona's founding in 1912, with Calvin Coolidge's 5.8% victory in 1924 being the second closest.

Notably, Maricopa County, the state's most populous county, went more Democratic than the state as a whole for the first time in state history. The county had not voted for a Democrat since Harry S. Truman in 1948. Therefore, Trump's narrow win in the county suggested the Republican Party was losing ground in the state. In fact, the county and the state would go on to vote Democratic in 2020.

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

Шаблон:Main

Файл:Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 3.jpg
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at a campaign rally at Carl Hayden High School in Phoenix on March 21, 2016.
Файл:Bernie Sanders by Gage Skidmore 3.jpg
Senator Bernie Sanders at a campaign rally at the Phoenix Convention Center in Phoenix on March 15, 2016.
Файл:Bill Clinton by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Former President Bill Clinton at a campaign rally for his wife at Central High School in Phoenix on March 20, 2016.

Six candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[3]

Opinion polling

Шаблон:See also

Results

Шаблон:See also

Шаблон:2016AZDem

Detailed results per congressional district
Detailed results for the Arizona Democratic primary, April 5, 2016[4][5]
District Total Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Votes Delegates Votes % Delegates Votes % Delegates
1st district 63,863 6 35,445 55.5% 3 26,267 41.1% 3
2nd district 78,237 8 42,797 54.7% 4 33,891 43.3% 4
3rd district 51,520 5 30,298 58.8% 3 20,091 39.0% 2
4th district 37,273 4 15,289 55.4% 2 20,662 41.0% 2
5th district 40,847 5 22,973 56.2% 3 16,982 41.6% 2
6th district 50,465 6 29,266 58.0% 4 20,259 40.1% 2
7th district 42,199 5 24,245 57.5% 3 17,173 40.7% 2
8th district 46,491 5 27,672 59.5% 3 17,651 38.0% 2
9th district 55,340 6 29,101 52.6% 3 25,359 45.8% 3
At-large delegates 466,235 16 262,459 56.3% 9 192,962 41.4% 7
Pledged PLEOs 466,235 9 262,459 56.3% 5 192,962 41.4% 4
Total 466,235 75 262,464 56.3% 42 192,965 41.4% 33

Republican primary

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Файл:Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore 5.jpg
Businessman Donald Trump at a campaign rally at Fountain Park in Fountain Hills on March 19, 2016.
Файл:Ted Cruz by Gage Skidmore 10.jpg
Senator Ted Cruz at a campaign rally at Arizona Christian University in Phoenix on March 18, 2016.

Fourteen candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[6]

Шаблон:2016AZRep

Green primary

Файл:Jill Stein by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Green Party candidate Jill Stein at a campaign rally at the Mesa Public Library in Mesa on March 12, 2016.

The Arizona Green Party held its primary on March 22. Jill Stein won with 82% of the vote, and the overall number of voters that took place in the primary saw an increase from 561 in 2012 to 770 in 2016.[7] Only two candidates qualified for the primary:[8]

Arizona Green Party presidential primary, March 22, 2016[9]
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Файл:America Symbol.svg Jill Stein 666 82% 5
Kent Mesplay 151 18% 1
Write-in/Blank 18 0% -
Total 817 100.0% 6

General election

Polling

Шаблон:See also The first poll conducted in March 2016 showed a tie between Clinton and Trump. From March 2016 to October, the polling in this normally Republican state was quite close, with neither candidate seriously leading. In late October, Trump gained momentum and won every pre-election poll in the weeks leading up to the election. The final poll showed Trump leading Clinton 46% to 41% and the average of the final 3 polls showed Trump leading 47% to 43%, which was accurate compared to the results.[10]

Predictions

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Arizona as of Election Day.

Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[11] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 6, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[12] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 7, 2016
CNN[14] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 8, 2016
NBC[15] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 8, 2016
RealClearPolitics[16] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 8, 2016
Fox News[17] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 7, 2016
ABC[18] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 7, 2016

Statewide results

Шаблон:Election box runningmate majority begin

 Шаблон:Election box US candidate with swing

Шаблон:Election box US candidate with swing Шаблон:Election box US candidate with swing Шаблон:Election box US candidate with swing Шаблон:Election box US candidate with swing Шаблон:Election box US candidate with swing Шаблон:Election box US candidate with swing Шаблон:Election box US candidate with swing Шаблон:Election box US candidate with swing Шаблон:Election box US candidate with swing Шаблон:Election box US candidate with swing Шаблон:Election box US candidate with swing Шаблон:Election runningmate box total Шаблон:Election box end

Results by county

County Donald Trump
Republican
Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Apache Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |8,240 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |29.79% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |17,083 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |61.76% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |2,338 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |8.45% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |-8,843 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |-31.97% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |27,661
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Cochise Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |28,092 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |56.17% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |17,450 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |34.89% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |4,473 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |8.94% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |10,642 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |21.28% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |50,015
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Coconino Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |21,108 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |35.31% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |32,404 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |54.20% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |6,272 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |10.49% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |-11,296 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |-18.89% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |59,784
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Gila Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |14,182 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |62.99% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |7,003 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |31.10% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |1,330 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |5.91% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |7,179 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |31.89% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |22,515
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Graham Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |8,025 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |65.34% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |3,301 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |26.88% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |955 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |7.78% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |4,724 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |38.46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |12,281
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Greenlee Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |1,892 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |57.33% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |1,092 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |33.09% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |316 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |9.58% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |800 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |24.24% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |3,300
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |La Paz Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |4,003 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |67.27% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |1,575 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |26.47% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |373 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |6.27% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |2,428 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |40.80% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |5,951
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Maricopa Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |747,361 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |47.67% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |702,907 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |44.83% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |117,566 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |7.50% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |44,454 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |2.84% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |1,567,834
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Mohave Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |58,282 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |72.90% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |17,455 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |21.83% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |4,206 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |5.26% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |40,827 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |51.07% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |79,943
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Navajo Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |20,577 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |51.07% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |16,459 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |40.85% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |3,258 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |8.09% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |4,118 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |10.22% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |40,294
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Pima Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |167,428 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |39.71% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |224,661 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |53.28% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |29,551 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |7.01% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |-57,233 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |-13.57% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |421,640
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Pinal Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |72,819 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |56.21% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |47,892 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |36.97% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |8,835 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |6.82% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |24,927 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |19.24% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |129,546
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Santa Cruz Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |3,897 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |23.71% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |11,690 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |71.14% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |846 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |5.15% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |-7,793 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |-47.43% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |16,433
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Yavapai Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |71,330 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |62.32% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |35,590 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |31.10% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |7,530 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |6.58% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |35,740 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |31.22% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |114,450
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Yuma Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |25,165 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |47.47% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |24,605 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |46.42% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |3,240 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |6.11% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |560 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |1.05% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |53,010
Totals 1,252,401 48.08% 1,161,167 44.58% 191,089 7.34% 91,234 3.50% 2,604,657

Шаблон:Align

By congressional district

Trump won 5 of 9 congressional districts. Both candidates won a district held by the other party. [19]

District Trump Clinton Representative
rowspan=2 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 47.7% 46.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Ann Kirkpatrick
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Tom O'Halleran
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 44.7% 49.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Martha McSally
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 32.5% 62.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Raúl Grijalva
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 67.7% 27.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Paul Gosar
rowspan=2 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 57.6% 36.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Matt Salmon
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Andy Biggs
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 52.4% 42.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|David Schweikert
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 22.6% 71.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Ruben Gallego
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 58.1% 37.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Trent Franks
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 38.4% 54.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Kyrsten Sinema

Turnout

Voter Turnout was 74.2% with 2,661,497 ballots cast out of 3,588,466 voters.[20]

Analysis

Donald Trump won Arizona with a margin of 3.5%, a reduced margin from Mitt Romney's 9.0% margin in 2012.[21] Arizona was among the eleven states in which Hillary Clinton outperformed Barack Obama's margin in 2012,[22] primarily due to an increase in Hispanic voter turnout in southern Arizona, including heavily populated Maricopa County. This was the weakest performance for a Republican in the state since 1992. Trump also lost the 2nd congressional district that Romney had won four years earlier.

Maricopa County in particular went from a 10.7% margin of victory for Romney in 2012 to a 2.8% margin of victory for Trump, making this only one of three times that a Democrat held the county's margins to single digits since 1952. Indeed, the only other times were 1964 and 1996. Clinton also came the closest of any Democrat to winning Yuma County since La Paz County broke off from it in the 1980s, as the county was last carried by a Democrat in 1964.

Other rural counties that Bill Clinton had won in the 1990s continued to trend in a Republican direction, namely the formerly union-heavy Gila, Graham, and Greenlee counties. In terms of percentage of the vote, Trump's strongest support was in the northwest of the state, including Mohave County, which was the only county to give him over 70% of the vote. Clinton did best in the southern-central region along the US-Mexico border. Santa Cruz and Pima counties (home to Tucson) were among her strongest and among the places in the state where she outperformed Barack Obama in 2012.

Electors

Arizona had 11 electors in 2016. All of them voted for Donald Trump for president and Mike Pence for vice president.

The electors were

See also

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Шаблон:State results of the 2016 U.S. presidential election Шаблон:Arizona elections Шаблон:2016 United States elections Шаблон:United States elections