Английская Википедия:2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
Шаблон:See alsoШаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use American English Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in New Hampshire
The 2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen won reelection to a third term after comfortably defeating Republican nominee Bryant Messner by 15.6 points and sweeping every single county in the state. This marked the first Senate election since 1972 in which the Democrat carried Belknap County.
Shaheen's final margin outperformed Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election by around 8 percentage points.
The primary election was held on September 8, 2020.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Jeanne Shaheen, incumbent U.S. senator[1]
Eliminated in primary
Endorsements
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Gerard Beloin, ski instructor[2]
- Don Bolduc, former U.S. Army Special Forces brigadier general[5]
- Andy Martin, journalist and perennial candidate[6]
Withdrew
- Bill O'Brien, former Speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives[7]
Declined
- Kelly Ayotte, former U.S. senator and former attorney general of New Hampshire[8][9]
- Al Baldasaro, state representative[10] (endorsed Bill O'Brien)[11]
- Scott Brown, U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, former U.S. senator from Massachusetts, 2014 Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire[10]
- Eddie Edwards, former police chief of South Hampton, former chief of the New Hampshire State Division of Liquor Enforcement, and nominee for New Hampshire's 1st congressional district in 2018[12] (accepted executive state appointment)[13]
- Corey Lewandowski, President Donald Trump's former campaign manager[14]
- Jay Lucas, businessman[15]
- Chris Sununu, incumbent governor of New Hampshire (running for re-election)[16]
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Don Bolduc | Corey Lewandowski | Corky Messner | Bill O'Brien | Other | Undecided | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | August 28 – September 1, 2020 | 703 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 31% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% | – | 0%Шаблон:Efn | 17% | |||||
| Saint Anselm College | August 15–17, 2020 | 475 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 29% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|31% | – | 4%Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|37% | |||||
| The Tarrance GroupШаблон:Efn-ua | July 12–14, 2020 | 401 (LV) | ± 5% | 27% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|39% | – | – | – | |||||
| Remington Research GroupШаблон:Efn-ua | June 21–23, 2020 | 800 (LV) | – | 8% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|17% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|73% | |||||
| O'Brien withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||
| Lewandowski announces he will not run | ||||||||||||||
| Emerson College | September 6–9, 2019 | 379 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|29% | 4% | 7% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|56% | |||||
| Vote Adjustments/WMUR | September 5–6, 2019 | 402 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|29% | 2% | 6% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|49% | |||||
| Messner announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||
| Remington Research (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | August 12–14, 2019 | 200 (RV) | – | 21% | 21% | 2% | 8% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|47% | |||||
| Fabrizio (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | August 11–12, 2019 | 400 (LV) | – | 11% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|30% | – | 10% | – | – | |||||
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Other candidates
Libertarian Party
Nominee
- Justin O'Donnell, Libertarian nominee for New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district in 2018,[2] qualified for general election ballot by petition on September 2, 2020[17]
Bull Moose Party
Did not qualify
General election
Debate
| Шаблон:Abbr | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican | Libertarian |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: Шаблон:Colors Participant Шаблон:Colors Absent Шаблон:Colors Not invited Шаблон:Colors Invited Шаблон:Color box Withdrawn |
scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | ||||
| Jeanne Shaheen | Bryant Messner | Justin O'Donnell | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 15, 2022 | New Hampshire Public Radio | Laura Knoy Annie Ropeik |
YouTube | Шаблон:Yes | Шаблон:Yes | Шаблон:No |
| 2 | Oct. 25, 2022 | WMUR | YouTube | Шаблон:Yes | Шаблон:Yes | Шаблон:No | |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[18] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[19] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[21] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico[22] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[23] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[24] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[25] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[26] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
- with Don Bolduc
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
Don Bolduc (R) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | August 28 – September 1, 2020 | 1,889 (LV) | ± 2.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|53% | 37% | 10%Шаблон:Efn |
| University of New Hampshire | July 16–28, 2020 | 1,893 (LV) | ± 2.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|54% | 35% | 10%Шаблон:Efn |
| University of New Hampshire | June 18–22, 2020 | 932 (LV) | ± 2.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51% | 39% | 11%Шаблон:Efn |
| University of New Hampshire | May 14–18, 2020 | 788 (LV) | ± 3.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|50% | 39% | 11%Шаблон:Efn |
| University of New Hampshire | February 19–25, 2020 | 576 (RV) | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 49% | 30% | 22%Шаблон:Efn |
| Remington Research (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | August 12–14, 2019 | 427 (RV) | ± 4.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 47% | 42% | 11% |
| Gravis Marketing | August 2–6, 2019 | 505 (RV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 51% | 38% | 11%Шаблон:Efn |
- with Corey Lewandowski
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
Corey Lewandowski (R) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group | December 12–16, 2019 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 58% | 35% | 7% |
| Emerson College | November 22–26, 2019 | 1,184 (RV) | ± 2.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 52% | 40% | 8% |
| American Research Group | September 20–24, 2019 | 560 (RV) | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 56% | 34% | 10% |
| Emerson College | September 6–9, 2019 | 1,041 (RV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Remington Research (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | August 12–14, 2019 | 427 (RV) | ± 4.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 50% | 37% | – |
- with Bill O'Brien
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
Bill O'Brien (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | February 19–25, 2020 | 576 (RV) | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 51% | 30% | 5% | 14% |
| Gravis Marketing | August 2–6, 2019 | 505 (RV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 52% | 39% | – | 9% |
- with Chris Sununu
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | February 21–22, 2019 | 910 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| YouGov/UMass Amherst | February 7–15, 2019 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 45% | 42% | 10% |
- with Kelly Ayotte
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
Kelly Ayotte (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/UMass Amherst | February 7–15, 2019 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 41% | 36% | 20% |
- with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Anselm College | August 15–17, 2020 | 1,042 (RV) | ± 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% | 44% | 2% | 4% |
| Saint Anselm College | Jun 13–16, 2020 | 1,072 (RV) | ± 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% | 43% | 2% | 8% |
| Saint Anselm College | Apr 23–27, 2020 | 820 (RV) | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% | 42% | 3% | 6% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
- Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Belknap (largest municipality: Laconia)
- Hillsborough (largest municipality: Manchester)
- Rockingham (largest municipality: Derry)
Results by congressional district
Shaheen won both congressional districts.[27]
| District | Shaheen | Messner | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr | 56% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Chris Pappas |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr | 57% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Annie Kuster |
See also
Notes
- Partisan clients
- Voter samples
References
External links
- Шаблон:Citation
- Шаблон:Citation
- Шаблон:Cite web (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Шаблон:Ballotpedia
- Official campaign websites
- Corky Messner (R) for Senate Шаблон:Webarchive
- Justin O'Donnell (L) for Senate Шаблон:Webarchive
- Jeanne Shaheen (D) for Senate
Шаблон:2020 United States elections Шаблон:New Hampshire elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 2,0 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ 10,0 10,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite tweet
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite tweet
- ↑ 17,0 17,1 Шаблон:Cite web
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