Английская Википедия:2022 United States Senate election in Georgia

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:See also Шаблон:Use American English Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Georgia (U.S. state) sidebar The 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate to represent the state of Georgia. Incumbent Democratic senator Raphael Warnock won his first full term in office, defeating Republican former football player Herschel Walker. Under Georgia's two-round system, Warnock was re-elected in a runoff election on December 6 after neither candidate received over 50% of the vote on November 8.[1]

Warnock won the right to serve the balance of Republican Johnny Isakson's third term in a 2020–21 special election. He was nominated in the May 24 primary for a full term with minimal opposition. Walker, who was endorsed by former president Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, won the Republican nomination with 68% of the vote. It was the first U.S. Senate election in Georgia history and among five nationwide since the passage of the Seventeenth AmendmentШаблон:Efn in which both major party nominees were Black.[2][3] This was the fifth runoff in Georgia since they were introduced in 1964.

In the November 8 election, Warnock received 49.4% of the vote and Walker received 48.5%, triggering the December 6 runoff.[4] Warnock defeated Walker by a 2.8% margin in the runoff and became the first African-American from Georgia elected to a full term in the U.S. Senate. Warnock's victory also secured an outright majority for Senate Democrats for the first time since 2015, with a net gain of one seat in the 2022 midterms.[5][6] It was the third-closest Senate election of the 2022 midterms after Nevada and Wisconsin.

This is the first time since 1990 that a Democratic senator from Georgia won re-election and the first time since 1974 that a Democrat won re-election to the Class 3 seat. This was the first time a Democrat won a full term to this seat since 1986.

Democratic primary

Warnock easily won renomination in the Democratic primary over Tamara Johnson-Shealey, a left-wing activist and businesswoman, who ran a low-profile campaign focused around reparations for slavery.[7][8]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn
Margin
of error
Tamara
Johnson-Shealey
Raphael
Warnock
Undecided
Emerson College April 1–3, 2022 453 (LV) ± 4.6% 6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|85% 10%

Results

Файл:2022 United States Senate Democratic primary election in Georgia results map by county.svg
Results by county: Шаблон:Collapsible list

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box total no changeШаблон:Election box end

Republican primary

Файл:Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black (cropped).jpg
Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black was the runner-up in the Republican primary.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Debates

2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Georgia debates
Шаблон:Abbr Date Organizer Location Key:
Шаблон:Colors Participant  Шаблон:Colors Absent  Шаблон:Colors Non-invitee  Шаблон:Colors Invitee Шаблон:Colors Withdrawn
Source
Gary Black Josh Clark Kelvin King Jonathan McColumn Latham Saddler Herschel Walker
1 April 9, 2022 Georgia's 9th congressional district Republican Party Gainesville P P P P P A [34]
2 May 3, 2022 Atlanta Press Club,
Georgia Public Broadcasting
Atlanta P P P P P A [35]

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Polling

Graphical summary

Шаблон:Graph:Chart

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Gary
Black
Josh
Clark
Kelvin
King
Jonathan
McColumn
Latham
Saddler
Herschel
Walker
Other
Шаблон:Efn
Margin
Real Clear Politics May 12–23, 2022 May 24, 2022 9.0% 2.7% 4.0% 1.7% 9.0% 64.7% 12.9% Walker +55.7
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn
Margin
of error
Gary
Black
Josh
Clark
Kelvin
King
Jonathan
McColumn
Latham
Saddler
Herschel
Walker
Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) May 21–23, 2022 1,074 (LV) ± 2.9% 10% 3% 4% 2% 10% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|67% 4%
Landmark Communications (R) May 22, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 9% 3% 5% 2% 12% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|60% 9%
Fox News May 12–16, 2022 1,004 (LV) ± 3.0% 8% 2% 3% 1% 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|66% 1% 11%
ARW Strategies (R) April 30 – May 1, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 10% 1% 3% 1% 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|59% 23%
SurveyUSA April 22–27, 2022 559 (LV) ± 4.8% 6% 3% 2% 2% 3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|62% 21%
University of Georgia April 10–22, 2022 886 (LV) ± 3.3% 7% 1% 1% 1% 2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|66% 23%
Landmark Communications (R) April 9–10, 2022 660 (LV) ± 3.8% 9% 3% 4% 0% 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|64% 14%
Spry Strategies (R) April 6–10, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 7% 2% 4% 2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|64% 21%
University of Georgia March 20 – April 8, 2022 ~329 (LV) ± 5.4% 8% 0% 2% 0% 2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|64% 24%
Emerson College April 1–3, 2022 509 (LV) ± 4.3% 13% 4% 5% 3% 2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|57% 2%Шаблон:Efn 16%
Fox News March 2–6, 2022 914 (LV) ± 3.0% 8% 1% 3% 2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|66% 1% 16%
InsiderAdvantage (R) February 28 – March 1, 2022 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 6% 3% 4% 3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|63% 2% 20%
The Trafalgar Group (R) February 11–13, 2022 1,072 (LV) ± 3.0% 6% 2% 3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|70% 19%
Quinnipiac University January 19–24, 2022 666 (LV) ± 3.8% 6% 0% 2% 1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|81% 0%Шаблон:Efn 9%
OnMessage Inc. (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua October 11–14, 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 6% 1% 1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|74% 2%Шаблон:Efn 16%
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 2–4, 2021 1,078 (LV) ± 3.0% 6% 2% 3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|76% 13%
Fabrizio Lee (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua August 11–12, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 5% 2% 1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|54% 3%Шаблон:Efn 35%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn
Margin
of error
Doug
Collins
Marjorie
Шаблон:Nowrap
Kelly
Loeffler
Herschel
Walker
Undecided
OnMessage Inc. (R) March 14–15, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|35% 7% 22% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|27% 11%
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage March 7–9, 2021 – (LV)Шаблон:Efn Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|33% 24% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|33% 11%
Primary runoff polling
Doug Collins vs. Kelly Loeffler
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn
Margin
of error
Doug
Collins
Kelly
Loeffler
Undecided
OnMessage Inc. (R) March 14–15, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|55% 36% 10%
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage March 7–9, 2021 – (LV)Шаблон:Efn Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% 32% 16%
Herschel Walker vs. Doug Collins
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn
Margin
of error
Herschel
Walker
Doug
Collins
Undecided
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage March 7–9, 2021 – (LV)Шаблон:Efn Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% 36% 14%
Herschel Walker vs. Kelly Loeffler
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn
Margin
of error
Herschel
Walker
Kelly
Loeffler
Undecided
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage March 7–9, 2021 – (LV)Шаблон:Efn Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|62% 26% 11%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Файл:2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Georgia results map by county.svg
Results by county: Шаблон:Collapsible list

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box total no changeШаблон:Election box end

Libertarian primary

Файл:Chase Oliver by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Libertarian nominee Chase Oliver

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[38] Шаблон:USRaceRating March 4, 2022
Inside Elections[39] Шаблон:USRaceRating April 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[40] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 7, 2022
Politico[41] Шаблон:USRaceRating April 1, 2022
RCP[42] Шаблон:USRaceRating February 24, 2022
Fox News[43] Шаблон:USRaceRating October 25, 2022
DDHQ[44] Шаблон:USRaceRating October 25, 2022
FiveThirtyEight[45] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 7, 2022
The Economist[46] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 1, 2022

Debates

2022 United States Senate general election in Georgia debates
Шаблон:Abbr Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican Libertarian
Key:
Шаблон:Colors Participant  Шаблон:Colors Absent  Шаблон:Colors Not invited  Шаблон:Colors Invited Шаблон:Color box Withdrawn
scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"|
Raphael Warnock Herschel Walker Chase Oliver
1 Oct. 14, 2022 Nexstar Media Group Buck Lanford
Tina Tyus-Shaw
Шаблон:Yes Шаблон:Yes Шаблон:No
2 Oct. 16, 2022 Georgia Public Broadcasting Scott Slade [47] Шаблон:Yes A Шаблон:Yes

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Raphael
Warnock (D)
Herschel
Walker (R)
Other
Шаблон:Efn
Margin
Real Clear Politics October 29 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 47.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48.8% 3.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Walker +1.4
FiveThirtyEight October 13 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 46.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47.7% 5.69% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Walker +1.0
270ToWin November 4–7, 2022 November 7, 2022 47.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48.5% 5.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Walker +1.2
Average 47.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48.3% 4.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Walker +1.2
Graphical summary

Шаблон:Graph:Chart

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn
Margin
of error
Raphael
Warnock (D)
Herschel
Walker (R)
Chase
Oliver (L)
Other Undecided
AtlasIntel November 5–7, 2022 791 (LV) ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% 5%Шаблон:Efn
Landmark Communications November 4–7, 2022 1,214 (LV) ± 2.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% 5% 2%
InsiderAdvantage (R) November 6, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|47% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% 1% 4%
Research Co. November 4–6, 2022 450 (LV) ± 4.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|47% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% 1% 5%
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 4–6, 2022 1,103 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% 2% 2%
Data for Progress (D) November 2–6, 2022 1,474 (LV) ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% 3%
Targoz Market Research November 2–6, 2022 579 (LV) ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|47% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% 1% 2%Шаблон:Efn
East Carolina University November 2–5, 2022 1,077 (LV) ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% 2%
Amber Integrated (R) November 1–2, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% 3% 4%
Remington Research Group (R) November 1–2, 2022 1,150 (LV) ± 2.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% 2% 4%
Echleon Insights October 31 – November 2, 2022 500 (LV) ± 5.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% 3% 3%
45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% 3%
Marist College October 31 – November 2, 2022 1,168 (RV) ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% 1%Шаблон:Efn 6%
1,009 (LV) ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% 1%Шаблон:Efn 3%
Moore Information Group (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua October 29 – November 2, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% 2% 5%
SurveyUSA October 29 – November 2, 2022 1,171 (LV) ± 3.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% 3% 5%
Patinkin Research Strategies (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua October 30 – November 1, 2022 700 (RV) ± 3.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% 4% 2%
Emerson College October 28–31, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% 1% 1%Шаблон:Efn 2%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|50% 48% 2% 1%Шаблон:Efn
Fox News October 26–30, 2022 1,002 (RV) ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% 6%Шаблон:Efn 6%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 27, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% 2% <1%Шаблон:Efn 5%
Siena College/NYT October 24–27, 2022 604 (LV) ± 4.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% 1% 4%
University of Georgia October 16–27, 2022 1,022 (LV) ± 3.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% 5% 5%
co/efficient (R) October 24–25, 2022 946 (LV) ± 3.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% 3% 6%
Moore Information Group (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua October 22–25, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% 3%
Rasmussen Reports (R) October 23–24, 2022 1,053 (LV) ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% 4%Шаблон:Efn 4%
The Trafalgar Group (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua October 21–23, 2022 1,076 (LV) ± 2.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|47% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% 5%
East Carolina University October 13–18, 2022 905 (LV) ± 3.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% 2%Шаблон:Efn 3%
Landmark Communications October 15–17, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% 3% 2%
Data for Progress (D) October 13–17, 2022 984 (LV) ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% 3% 3%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 16, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% 4% 1%Шаблон:Efn 6%
Wick Insights (R) October 8–14, 2022 1,018 (LV) ± 3.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% 3%Шаблон:Efn 5%
Civiqs October 8–11, 2022 717 (LV) ± 4.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% 3%Шаблон:Efn 1%
Moore Information Group (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua October 8–11, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% 4%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 8–11, 2022 1,084 (LV) ± 2.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% 4% 5%
Quinnipiac University October 7–10, 2022 1,157 (LV) ± 2.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|52% 45% 1%Шаблон:Efn 1%
Emerson College October 6–7, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% 1% 1%Шаблон:Efn 4%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 4, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|47% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|44% 3% 1%Шаблон:Efn 5%
SurveyUSA September 30 – October 4, 2022 1,076 (LV) ± 3.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|50% 38% 5%Шаблон:Efn 7%
University of Georgia September 25 – October 4, 2022 1,030 (LV) ± 3.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% 4% 6%
Fox News September 22–26, 2022 1,011 (RV) ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|41% 6%Шаблон:Efn 7%
Data for Progress (D) September 16–20, 2022 1,006 (RV) ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% 4% 3%
YouGov/CBS News September 14–19, 2022 1,178 (RV) ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51% 49% 0%
University of Georgia September 5–16, 2022 861 (LV) ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% 3% 7%
Marist College September 12–15, 2022 1,202 (RV) ± 3.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|47% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% 4% 7%
992 (LV) ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|47% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% 4% 4%
Kurt Jetta (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua September 9–12, 2022 949 (RV) ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|50% 37% 13%
542 (LV) Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% 7%
Quinnipiac University September 8–12, 2022 1,278 (LV) ± 2.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|52% 46% 1% 2%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 751 (LV) ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|50% 40% 10%
InsiderAdvantage (R) September 6–7, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% 4% 5%
Emerson College August 28–29, 2022 600 (LV) ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% 4% 7%
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 24–27, 2022 1,079 (LV) ± 2.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|47% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% 3% 3%
Phillips Academy August 3–7, 2022 971 (RV) ± 3.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% 11%
Research Affiliates (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua July 26 – August 1, 2022 420 (LV) ± 4.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% 5%
InsiderAdvantage (R) July 26–27, 2022 750 (LV) ± 3.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% 3% 1% 3%
Fox News July 22–26, 2022 908 (RV) ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% 1% 9%
PEM Management Corporation (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua July 22–24, 2022 300 (LV) ± 5.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% 3% 9%
SurveyUSA July 21–24, 2022 604 (LV) ± 5.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|39% 5% 8%
University of Georgia July 14–22, 2022 902 (LV) ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% 3% 8%
Beacon Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua July 5–20, 2022 1,003 (RV) ± 3.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|36% 2% 11%
602 (LV) ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% 1% 7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) July 5–11, 2022 1,197 (LV) ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|50% 47% 3%
Data for Progress (D) July 1–6, 2022 1,131 (LV) ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|47% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% 4%
Change Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua June 24–27, 2022 704 (LV) ± 3.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|44% 8%
Quinnipiac University June 23–27, 2022 1,497 (RV) ± 2.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|54% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|44% 0% 3%
Moore Information Group (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua June 11–16, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|47% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% 6%
East Carolina University June 6–9, 2022 868 (RV) ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|47% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% 2% 4%
SurveyUSA April 22–27, 2022 1,278 (LV) ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|50% 45% 5%
Grassroots Targeting (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua April 3–16, 2022 2,500 (RV) ± 2.0% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51% 8%
Emerson College April 1–3, 2022 1,013 (RV) ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% 6%
Blueprint Polling (D) March 2–8, 2022 662 (LV) ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% 6%
Change Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua March 2022 – (LV) Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% 3%
Wick Insights (R) February 2–6, 2022 1,290 (LV) ± 2.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% 8%
Quinnipiac University January 19–24, 2022 1,702 (RV) ± 2.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% 0% 3%
University of Georgia January 13–24, 2022 872 (RV) ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% 1% 8%
NRSC (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua December 4–8, 2021 831 (LV) ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 9, 2021 753 (RV) ± 3.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|39% 2% 8%
733 (LV) Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% 2% 6%
Public Policy Polling (D) August 4–5, 2021 622 (V) ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% 6%
The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R) March 7–9, 2021 1,093 (LV) ± 2.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% 3% 4%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Raphael Warnock vs. Gary Black
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn
Margin
of error
Raphael
Warnock (D)
Gary
Black (R)
Other Undecided
University of Georgia January 13–24, 2022 872 (RV) ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% 41% 1% 11%
Public Policy Polling (D) August 4–5, 2021 622 (V) ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% 38% 16%
Raphael Warnock vs. Kelly Loeffler
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn
Margin
of error
Raphael
Warnock (D)
Kelly
Loeffler (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) August 4–5, 2021 622 (V) ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|47% 44% 9%
The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R) March 7–9, 2021 1,093 (LV) ± 2.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% 41% 8% 5%
Raphael Warnock vs. Doug Collins
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn
Margin
of error
Raphael
Warnock (D)
Doug
Collins (R)
Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R) March 7–9, 2021 1,093 (LV) ± 2.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% 45% 5% 5%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Grassroots Targeting (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua April 3–16, 2022 2,500 (RV) ± 2.0% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% 8%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Despite a strong gubernatorial performance by incumbent governor Brian Kemp in his reelection bid, and leading the polls since October, Walker ended up one point behind Warnock and was forced into a runoff. Ticket splitting was evident, as Walker underperformed Brian Kemp by 200,000 votes, while Warnock did 100,000 votes better than Abrams.[48] Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party linkШаблон:Election box winning candidate with party linkШаблон:Election box candidate with party linkШаблон:Election box totalШаблон:Election box end

Runoff

Following the projection of incumbent Democratic senator Catherine Cortez Masto's victory in Nevada, it became clear that, unlike in the previous cycle, the results of the Georgia runoff would not determine control of the United States Senate. With all Democratic incumbents besides Warnock winning re-election and Democrat John Fetterman flipping an open seat in Pennsylvania that had been held by retiring Republican Pat Toomey, Democrats held their majority in the Senate.Шаблон:Efn[49] Nevertheless, national Democrats and Republicans began spending on advertising and volunteer mobilization efforts as soon as it became apparent that a runoff election would be necessary.[50] Historically, runoff elections in Georgia have favored Republicans as turnout decreased disproportionately amongst Democratic voters, but in 2021, with Senate control to be determined, turnout was historically high.[51] Prior to the runoff, elections analysts questioned whether Georgia voters would turn out in such high numbers again and tried to determine which candidate's coalition of supporters would be more likely to turn out.[52]

The early vote window was shorter in 2022 than in 2021 due to Georgia's Election Integrity Act of 2021, which reduced the gap between general and runoff elections from nine to four weeks.[53] State officials also said that there could be no weekend early voting: Georgia state law bars early voting from taking place the Saturday immediately before an election (December 3), and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger argued that early voting also could not take place the next preceding Saturday (November 26), as it fell two days after Thanksgiving (November 24) and the day after a Georgia state holiday established to commemorate Confederate general Robert E. Lee's birthday (November 25).Шаблон:Efn[54] On Friday, November 18, a Fulton County Superior Court judge ruled that, despite the holidays, county boards of election could legally offer early voting on Saturday, November 26;[55] that decision was upheld by the Georgia Court of Appeals on Monday, November 21,[56] and by the Supreme Court of Georgia on Wednesday, November 23.[57] Ultimately, 27 of Georgia's 159 counties chose to offer early voting on Saturday,[58] including the state's four largest counties, Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, and DeKalb.[59]

While Democrats retained control of the Senate during the 118th Congress regardless of the outcome of the Georgia runoff, Warnock's victory affected the functioning of that majority. During the 117th Congress, Senate Democrats made power-sharing agreements with Republicans, such as evenly dividing committee memberships between the two parties and giving Republicans greater ability to delay judicial appointments; with Warnock's win, Democrats attained an outright 51–49 majority,[1] allowing them to take full control of Senate committees and expedite judicial confirmations.[60] Looking beyond the 118th Congress, many analysts have noted that the outcome of this race will affect Democrats' prospects in the 2024 U.S. Senate elections. Election forecasters have noted that Democrats hold a number of seats up for election in 2024 which will be difficult for the party to defend,Шаблон:Efn and therefore that holding Georgia's seat bolstered the party's chances to maintain Senate control going forward.[60][61][62]

According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Warnock won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Walker's defeat.[63]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[64] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 18, 2022
Inside Elections[65] Шаблон:USRaceRating December 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[66] Шаблон:USRaceRating December 5, 2022
DDHQ[67] Шаблон:USRaceRating December 6, 2022

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Raphael
Warnock (D)
Herschel
Walker (R)
Undecided
Шаблон:Efn
Margin
Real Clear Politics November 11 – December 4, 2022 December 5, 2022 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51.0% 47.3% 1.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Warnock +3.7
FiveThirtyEight November 26 – December 5, 2022 December 5, 2022 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51.1% 47.2% 2.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Warnock +3.9
270ToWin November 22 – December 5, 2022 December 5, 2022 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51.0% 47.7% 1.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Warnock +3.3
Average Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51.0% 47.4% 1.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Warnock +3.6
Graphical summary

Шаблон:Graph:Chart

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn
Margin
of error
Raphael
Warnock (D)
Herschel
Walker (R)
Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) December 3–5, 2022 1,099 (LV) ± 2.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51% 47% 2%
Data for Progress (D) December 1–5, 2022 1,229 (LV) ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51% 49%
InsiderAdvantage (R) December 4, 2022 750 (LV) ± 3.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51% 48% 1%
Landmark Communications December 4, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|52% 47% 1%
Mitchell Research December 4, 2022 625 (LV) ± 3.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|50% 45% 5%
Patriot Polling November 30 – December 2, 2022 818 (RV) Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% 47% 4%
Emerson College November 28–30, 2022 888 (LV) ± 3.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51% 49%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% 47% 4%
SurveyUSA November 26–30, 2022 1,214 (LV) ± 3.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|50% 47% 3%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|50% 46% 4%
CNN/SSRS November 25–29, 2022 1,886 (RV) ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51% 44% 5%Шаблон:Efn
1,184 (LV) ± 3.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|52% 48% 1%Шаблон:Efn
UMass Lowell/YouGov November 18–28, 2022 1,300 (LV) ± 3.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51% 46% 2%
Phillips Academy November 26–27, 2022 862 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% 5%
Frederick Polls (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua November 23–26, 2022 939 (LV) ± 3.1% 50% 50%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) November 11–17, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51% 47% 2%

Results

Warnock won Washington and Baldwin counties in the runoff, after having lost them in the general election, although he did win them in 2020.

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party linkШаблон:Election box candidate with party linkШаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Walker won 9 of 14 congressional districts.[68]

District Warnock Walker Representative
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 44% 56% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Buddy Carter
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 56% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Sanford Bishop
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 36% 64% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Drew Ferguson
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 82% 18% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Hank Johnson
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 87% 13% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Nikema Williams
rowspan=2 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 44% 56% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Lucy McBath (117th Congress)
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Rich McCormick (118th Congress)
rowspan=2 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 66% 34% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Carolyn Bourdeaux (117th Congress)
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Lucy McBath (118th Congress)
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 35% 65% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Austin Scott
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 31% 69% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Andrew Clyde
rowspan=2 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 39% 61% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Jody Hice (117th Congress)
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Mike Collins (118th Congress)
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 43% 57% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Barry Loudermilk
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 44% 56% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Rick Allen
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 84% 16% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|David Scott
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 32% 68% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Marjorie Taylor Greene

See also

Notes

Шаблон:Notelist

Partisan clients

Шаблон:Notelist-ua Шаблон:Reflist Шаблон:Reflist Шаблон:Reflist

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Official campaign websites

Шаблон:2022 United States elections

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