Английская Википедия:2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:See also Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Louisiana sidebar The 2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election was held on October 14, 2023 to elect the governor of Louisiana. Incumbent Governor John Bel Edwards was term-limited and could not seek re-election to a third consecutive term in office. This race was one of two Democratic-held governorships up for election in 2023 in a state that voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

Under Louisiana's two-round system, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party, and voters may vote for any candidate regardless of that person's party affiliation. If no candidate had received an absolute majority of the vote during the primary election on October 14, 2023, a runoff election would have been held on November 18, 2023, between the top two candidates in the primary.

State Attorney General Jeff Landry won with over 51% of the vote in the primary. This was the first time a candidate won a Louisiana gubernatorial election without a runoff since fellow Republican Bobby Jindal was re-elected in 2011. Landry easily prevailed over several Republican opponents, including former state chamber of commerce CEO Stephen Waguespack and State Treasurer John Schroder. Former state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson was the leading Democratic candidate.

Background

Louisiana, like much of the Deep South, is a very socially conservative "Bible Belt" state. Democrats were the favored party at all levels of government as recently as the 1990s, however the Republican Party has since rapidly gained ground, first at the federal level and gradually at the state and local level as well. Today, the state is strongly Republican-leaning and, at the time of the election, Republicans held both of the state's U.S. Senate seats, all but one of its U.S. House seats, both of its state legislative chambers, and every statewide executive office except the governorship.

John Bel Edwards, a moderate Democrat, was able to win two terms as governor and overcome the state's partisan lean by diverging from the national party on certain policy matters, such as abortion, while also appealing to Louisiana's contemporary Democratic voting base. However, as Edwards was term-limited going into the election, most analysts expected the governorship to flip back to the Republican Party in 2023, primarily due to the lack of Democratic candidates with Edwards' crossover appeal.

Democratic candidates

Declared

• Danny Cole, Pentecostal pastor
• Shawn Wilson, former Secretary of the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development

Declined

• Katie Bernhardt, chair of the Louisiana Democratic Party (endorsed Wilson)
• Sharon Weston Broome, Mayor of Baton Rouge (endorsed Wilson)
• Gary Chambers, community organizer, runner-up for U.S. Senate in 2022, and candidate for Шаблон:Ushr in 2021 (endorsed Wilson)
• Hillar Moore, East Baton Rouge Parish District Attorney
• Cedric Richmond, former Director of the Office of Public Engagement, former Senior Advisor to the President, and former U.S. Representative from Шаблон:Ushr
• Jason Williams, Orleans Parish District Attorney

Republican candidates

Declared

• Patrick "Dat" Barthel, engineer and Democratic candidate for Governor in 2003
• Xavier Ellis, teacher
• Sharon Hewitt, Majority Leader of the Louisiana Senate from the 1st district
• Xan John, businessman and independent candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020 and 2022
• Jeff Landry, Louisiana Attorney General
• John Schroder, Louisiana State Treasurer
• Stephen Waguespack, former president and CEO of the Louisiana Association of Business and Industry and former chief of staff to then-governor Bobby Jindal

Withdrawn

• Richard Nelson, state representative from the 89th district (endorsed Landry)

Declined

• Bill Cassidy, U.S. Senator
• Garret Graves, U.S. Representative from Шаблон:Ushr (endorsed Waguespack)
• John Kennedy, U.S. Senator
• Billy Nungesser, Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana (ran for re-election)
• Clay Schexnayder, Speaker of the Louisiana House of Representatives (ran for Secretary of State)
• Mike Strain, commissioner of the Louisiana Department of Agriculture and Forestry (ran for re-election)
• Rick Ward III, former state senator from the 17th district

Independent candidates

Declared

• Benjamin Barnes
• Keitron Gagnon
• Jeffery Istre, oilfield worker and U.S. Army veteran
• Hunter Lundy, attorney and Democratic candidate for Шаблон:Ushr in 1996
• Frank Scurlock, retired businessman and Democratic candidate for mayor of New Orleans in 2017

Jungle primary

Campaign

The Louisiana Republican Party endorsed Attorney General Jeff Landry's campaign on November 7, 2022, a year before the election. The party had had a full-body meeting scheduled for October 29, but it was canceled, and instead the endorsement was voted on in an exclusive meeting held over Zoom. Landry and Eddie Rispone, a member of the Republican State Central Committee who supports him, had pushed the party to make an early endorsement, arguing that the Republicans' best chance of flipping the governorship was to unite around one candidate well in advance of the election. This move was heavily criticized by other Republicans who had expressed interest in running for governor. Lieutenant Governor Billy Nungesser said the party's endorsement process "looks more like communist China than the Louisiana we know and love," State Treasurer John Schroder claimed it was driven by "money and inside party politics," and Louisiana Senate Majority Leader Sharon Hewitt proclaimed "the citizens of Louisiana do not need backroom deals and political insiders telling them who should be our next governor." Michael DiResto, a member of the Republican State Central Committee, believed "the idea that a small cabal would preempt the democratic process literally under the cover of darkness and in a smoke-filled Zoom goes against the foundational values of our party." In response, Louisiana Republican Party chair Louis Gurvich said "others who are crying over this endorsement are just upset because they didn't have the support within our party to win the endorsement for themselves."

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	July 21, 2023
Inside Elections	Шаблон:USRaceRating	September 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	July 13, 2023
Elections Daily	Шаблон:USRaceRating	July 12, 2023

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Hewitt (R)	Istre (I)	Landry (R)	Lundy (I)	Nelson (R)	Schroder (R)	Waguespack (R)	Wilson (D)	Other	Undecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyШаблон:Efn-ua	September 12–15, 2023	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	2%	0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|40%	4%	1%	3%	9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|24%	2%Шаблон:Efn	15%
The Trafalgar Group (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	September 11–15, 2023	1,062 (LV)	± 2.9%	4.1%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|37.7%	6.3%	1.2%	6.5%	6.7%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|22.6%	–	14.9%
Faucheux StrategiesШаблон:Efn-ua	August 14–19, 2023	800 (LV)	± 3.46%	3%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|36%	7%	2%	4%	6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|26%	2%	14%
Emerson College	August 13–14, 2023	982 (LV)	± 3.1%	5%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|40%	–	–	–	5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|22%	10Шаблон:Efn	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|18%
BDPCШаблон:Efn-ua	July 6–10, 2023	600 (V)	± 4.0%	4%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|30%	5%	1%	6%	5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|28%	–	23%
Kaplan Strategies	June 30 – July 2, 2023	1,077 (LV)	± 3.0%	5%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|30%	5%	2%	6%	6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|22%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|24%
Remington Research (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	June 22–25, 2023	896 (LV)	?	3%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|25%	4%	0%	7%	16%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|27%	–	18%
WPA Intelligence (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	June 15–17, 2023	500 (LV)	± 2.45%	2%	<1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|35%	4%	<1%	3%	6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|27%	2%	18%
The Kitchens Group (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	June 12–15, 2023	1,600 (LV)	± 2.45%	≥6%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|31%	4%	–	≥6%	≥6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|21%	7%Шаблон:Efn	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|25%
WPA Intelligence (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	April 30 – May 2, 2023	500 (LV)	± 2.45%	2%	1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|32%	2%	1%	6%	2%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|18%	4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|32%
WPA Intelligence (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	April 11–13, 2023	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	3%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|36%	3%	1%	6%	2%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|18%	1%Шаблон:Efn	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|29%
WPA Intelligence (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	Before April 18, 2023	?	?	–	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|35%	–	–	–	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|25%	17%Шаблон:Efn	23%
JMC AnalyticsШаблон:Efn-ua	March 6–8, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	2%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|28%	3%	–	3%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|29%	–	22%
BDPCШаблон:Efn-ua	December 7–13, 2022	630 (LV)	± 4.0%	3%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|22%	2%	–	2%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|23%	Шаблон:Party shading/Other|23%Шаблон:Efn	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|24%
Torchlight StrategiesШаблон:Efn-ua	December 6–9, 2022	861 (LV)	± 3.3%	–	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|14%	–	–	–	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|22%	Шаблон:Party shading/Other|42%Шаблон:Efn	20%
Torchlight StrategiesШаблон:Efn-ua	November 9–12, 2022	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	<1%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|13%	2%	–	1%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|18%	Шаблон:Party shading/Other|40%Шаблон:Efn	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|26%
JMC Analytics (R)	March 21–23, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	2%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|11%	–	–	1%	–	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Other|46%Шаблон:Efn	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|29%

Jeff Landry vs. Sharon Hewitt

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Jeff Landry (R)	Sharon Hewitt (R)	Undecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyШаблон:Efn-ua	September 12–15, 2023	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|53%	23%	24%

Jeff Landry vs. Hunter Lundy

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Jeff Landry (R)	Hunter Lundy (I)	Undecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyШаблон:Efn-ua	September 12–15, 2023	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|56%	30%	14%

Jeff Landry vs. John Schroder

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Jeff Landry (R)	John Schroder (R)	Undecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyШаблон:Efn-ua	September 12–15, 2023	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51%	23%	26%

Jeff Landry vs. Stephen Waguespack

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Jeff Landry (R)	Stephen Waguespack (R)	Undecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyШаблон:Efn-ua	September 12–15, 2023	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52%	27%	21%

Jeff Landry vs. Shawn Wilson

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Jeff Landry (R)	Shawn Wilson (D)	Undecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyШаблон:Efn-ua	September 12–15, 2023	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52%	39%	9%
Faucheux StrategiesШаблон:Efn-ua	August 14–19, 2023	800 (LV)	± 3.46%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|54%	36%	10%
BDPCШаблон:Efn-ua	July 6–10, 2023	600 (V)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45%	40%	16%

John Kennedy vs. Jeff Landry

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	John Kennedy (R)	Jeff Landry (R)	Undecided
Torchlight StrategiesШаблон:Efn-ua	December 6–9, 2022	861 (LV)	± 3.3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46%	21%	27%

John Kennedy vs. Shawn Wilson

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	John Kennedy (R)	Shawn Wilson (D)	Undecided
Torchlight StrategiesШаблон:Efn-ua	December 6–9, 2022	861 (LV)	± 3.3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|58%	27%	14%
Torchlight StrategiesШаблон:Efn-ua	November 9–12, 2022	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|58%	32%	12%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Generic Democrat	Generic Republican	Undecided
JMC Analytics (R)	March 21–23, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	33%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50%	17%

Results

Файл:2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election turnout map by parish.svg

Turnout map by parish
Шаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:Legend

Aftermath

In his victory speech, Governor-elect Landry stated that the "election says that our state is united", adding, "it's a wake up call and it's a message that everyone should hear loud and clear, that we the people in this state are going to expect more out of our government from here on out".

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

• Benjamin Barnes (I) for Governor
• Sharon Hewitt (R) for Governor
• Jeff Landry (R) for Governor
• Hunter Lundy (I) for Governor
• John Schroder (R) for Governor
• Stephen Waguespack (R) for Governor
• Shawn Wilson (D) for Governor