Английская Википедия:2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Row hover highlight Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsIA
The 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses will be held on January 15, 2024,[1] as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 40 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention will be allocated on a proportional basis.[2] As in past primary cycles, the Iowa caucus will be the first-in-the-nation Republican presidential primary caucus.
Background and electorate
History of the Iowa caucus
Beginning in 1972, the Iowa caucuses have been characterized as the first major electoral test for both Democratic and Republican presidential contenders.[3] Despite its strategic importance, between 1976 and 2016, only three out of eight winners of the Iowa caucuses went on to receive the Republican presidential nomination.[4]
Republican electorate
Matthew Dallek, a professor of political history at George Washington University, has argued that the Iowa Republican caucuses effectively serve as "referendums on who is the most socially conservative candidate" in the Republican field.[4]
Commentators have noted the decisive role of Evangelical Christian caucusgoers in past contests. The victory of social conservatives Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Ted Cruz in the 2008, 2012, and 2016 Iowa caucuses, respectively, was credited to their strong support among evangelical voters.[5][6][7][8]
In 2016, it was noted by The Des Moines Register that almost half of likely Republican caucusgoers self-identify as evangelical or born-again Christians.[9] In the 2016 Iowa Republican caucus, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas defeated eventual nominee Donald Trump by a 27.6% to 24.3% margin in what was considered an upset victory.
Procedure
Delegates are proportionally allocated to candidates based on the total statewide vote. Unlike most states, there is no mininimum threshold for a candidate to be eligible for delegates.
Campaign developments
In February 2023, the Trump campaign announced its Iowa campaign staff, with state representative Bobby Kaufmann and consultant Eric Branstad, the son of former Governor Terry Branstad, serving as senior advisors.[10] In March 2023, Trump's campaign announced that it would hold an "America First Education Policy" event in Davenport on March 13, marking his first official campaign appearance in the state.[11][12]
Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis, who has declared his candidacy,[13] held a pair of events in the state on March 10, and was accompanied by Governor Kim Reynolds.[14] However, Reynolds remained neutral between Trump and DeSantis, which caused Trump to post on Truth Social accusing her of stealing the race from him and that like DeSantis, she wouldn't have been elected without Trump's help.[15] Reynolds broke her neutrality in November 2023 and endorsed DeSantis.[16] Additionally, between October and December, DeSantis toured all 99 Iowan counties.[17]
Endorsements
Шаблон:Main Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Maps
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Шаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:Legend
Шаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:Legend
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Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Chris Christie |
Ron DeSantis |
Nikki Haley |
Asa Hutchinson |
Vivek Ramaswamy |
Donald Trump |
Other/ UndecidedШаблон:Efn |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270toWin | December 14 – 21, 2023 | December 21, 2023 | 3.6% | 17.8% | 15.6% | 0.4% | 6.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |52.6% | 3.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Trump +34.8 |
| FiveThirtyEight | Through December 19, 2023 | December 20, 2023 | 3.9% | 18.6% | 15.6% | 0.6% | 5.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |49.5% | 6.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Trump +30.9 |
| RealClearPolling | December 1 – 19 | December 20, 2023 | 3.7% | 18.6% | 16.1% | 0.7% | 5.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |51.3% | 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Trump +32.7 |
| Average | 3.7% | 18.3% | 15.8% | 0.6% | 5.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |51.1% | 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Trump +32.8 | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Doug Burgum |
Chris Christie |
Ron DeSantis |
Larry Elder |
Nikki Haley |
Asa Hutchinson |
Mike Pence |
Vivek Ramaswamy |
Tim Scott |
Donald Trump |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | Dec 18–19, 2023 | 850 (LV) | ± 4.36% | – | 4% | 15% | – | 17% | 0% | – | 8% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 50% | – | 6% |
| Fox Business | Dec 14–18, 2023 | 804 (LV) | ± 3.5% | – | 3% | 18% | – | 16% | 0% | – | 7% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 52% | 1% | 2% |
| Emerson College | Dec 15–17, 2023 | 420 (LV) | ± 4.7% | – | 4% | 15% | – | 17% | 0% | – | 8% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 50% | – | 6% |
| Iowa State University/Civiqs | Dec 8–13, 2023 | 438 (LV) | ± 6.0% | – | 4% | 17% | – | 15% | 1% | – | 7% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 54% | 0%Шаблон:Efn | 2% |
| Selzer & Co.Шаблон:Efn-ua | Dec 2–7, 2023 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | 4% | 19% | – | 16% | 1% | – | 5% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 51% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 3% |
| Trafalgar Group | Dec 1–4, 2023 | 1,091 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 2% | 4% | 22% | – | 19% | 1% | – | 5% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 45% | – | 1% |
| Morning Consult | Nov 1–30, 2023 | 324 (LV) | – | 1% | 2% | 18% | – | 11% | 0% | – | 13% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |50% | – | – |
| Iowa State University/Civiqs | Nov 10–15, 2023 | 432 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 1% | 3% | 18% | – | 12% | 0% | – | 6% | 2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 54% | 0% | 4% |
| Arc InsightsШаблон:Efn-ua | Nov 9–14, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 1% | 4% | 17% | – | 17% | <1% | – | 5% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 44% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 9% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesШаблон:Efn-ua | Nov 9–12, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1% | 5% | 19% | - | 16% | 0% | - | 4% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% | 0% | 7% |
| 2% | 5% | 20% | - | 18% | 0% | - | 5% | - | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|44% | 0% | 7% | ||||
| Trafalgar Group (R) | Nov 3–5, 2023 | 1,084 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 4% | 5% | 18% | – | 15% | 0% | – | 5% | 9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 44% | 0%Шаблон:Efn | 1% |
| Morning Consult | Oct 1–31, 2023 | 324 (LV) | – | 1% | 2% | 15% | – | 7% | 0% | 3% | 9% | 6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |57% | – | – |
| Public Opinion StrategiesШаблон:Efn-ua | Oct 24–26, 2023 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 1% | 2% | 20% | – | 12% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 46% | – | – |
| Selzer & Co.Шаблон:Efn-ua | Oct 22–26, 2023 | 404 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 3% | 4% | 16% | – | 16% | 1% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 4% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 3% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesШаблон:Efn-ua | Oct 17–19, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 2% | 3% | 21% | 0% | 14% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 6% |
| Iowa State University/Civiqs | Oct 6–10, 2023 | 425 (LV) | ± 6.1% | 0% | 2% | 17% | 0% | 11% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|55% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 1% |
| Morning Consult | Sep 1–30, 2023 | 316 (LV) | – | 1% | 5% | 13% | – | 6% | – | 7% | 9% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |53% | – | – |
| CBS News/YouGov | Sep 15–24, 2023 | 458 (LV) | ± 6.1% | 0% | 1% | 21% | 0% | 8% | 1% | 6% | 5% | 6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51% | 0%Шаблон:Efn | – |
| Public Opinion StrategiesШаблон:Efn-ua | Sep 19–21, 2023 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 1% | 2% | 21% | – | 9% | 0% | 2% | 5% | 6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | – | 9% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesШаблон:Efn-ua | Sep 17–19, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 1% | 5% | 15% | – | 13% | <1% | 2% | 5% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | <1%Шаблон:Efn | 7% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | Sep 14–18, 2023 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 4% | 2% | 16% | 0% | 8% | 0% | 4% | 7% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 2% |
| Fox Business | Sep 14–18, 2023 | 813 (LV) | ± 3% | 2% | 3% | 15% | <0.5% | 11% | <0.5% | 3% | 7% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 2% |
| Emerson College | Sep 7–9, 2023 | 357 (V) | ± 5.1% | 3% | – | 14% | – | 7% | – | 3% | 7% | 8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% | 6% | – |
| Civiqs | Sep 2–7, 2023 | 434 (LV) | ± 5.8% | 2% | 3% | 14% | – | 10% | 0% | 1% | 9% | 6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51% | 1%Шаблон:Efn | – |
| Public Opinion Strategies | Sep 5–6, 2023 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 1% | 3% | 22% | – | 6% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | – | – |
| Morning Consult | Aug 1–31, 2023 | 341 (LV) | – | 1% | 4% | 15% | – | 6% | 0% | 6% | 8% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |52% | 0%Шаблон:Efn | 1% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | Aug 25–28, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 2% | 3% | 18% | <1% | 10% | 1% | 2% | 7% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|44% | <2%Шаблон:Efn | 5% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | August 24, 2023 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 1% | 1% | 21% | – | 11% | 1% | 2% | 7% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|41% | – | – |
| Public Opinion Strategies | Aug 19–21, 2023 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 3% | 3% | 14% | – | 3% | <1% | 2% | 10% | 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% | – | – |
| HarrisXШаблон:Efn-ua | Aug 17–21, 2023 | 1,120 (LV) | –Шаблон:Efn | 2% | 3% | 11% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 3% | 9% | 8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 12% |
| –Шаблон:Efn | 2% | 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|21% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 8% | 18% | 15% | – | 4%Шаблон:Efn | 19% | |||
| Echelon InsightsШаблон:Efn-ua | Aug 15–17, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 2% | 4% | 17% | – | 2% | <1% | 3% | 8% | 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|33% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 14% |
| Selzer & Co.Шаблон:Efn-ua | Aug 13–17, 2023 | 406 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 2% | 5% | 19% | – | 6% | – | 6% | 4% | 9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 5% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | Aug 14–16, 2023 | 1,126 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 3% | 4% | 16% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 13% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 3% |
| New York Times/Siena College | Jul 28 – August 1, 2023 | 432 (LV) | ± 5.9% | 1% | <1% | 20% | <1% | 4% | <1% | 3% | 5% | 9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|44% | <2%Шаблон:Efn | 12% |
| – | – | 39% | – | – | – | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|55% | – | 4% | ||||
| Manhattan Institute | Jul 2023 | 625 (LV) | – | 3% | 4% | 17% | 0% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 10% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 7% |
| Morning Consult | July 1–31, 2023 | 350 (LV) | – | 1% | 2% | 19% | – | 4% | 0% | 4% | 8% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |55% | – | 2% |
| National ResearchШаблон:Efn-ua | Jul 23–24, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 3% | 4% | 15% | – | 3% | 0% | 2% | 5% | 9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% | – | 13% |
| Fox Business | Jul 15–19, 2023 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 3% | 3% | 16% | <1% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 11% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |46% | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 4% |
| co/efficientШаблон:Efn-ua | Jul 15–17, 2023 | 2,238 (LV) | ± 2.6% | – | 3% | 16% | – | 3% | – | 3% | 5% | 10% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |46% | – | 10% |
| National ResearchШаблон:Efn-ua | Jul 5–6, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | 3% | 21% | – | 2% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |44% | – | 14% |
| Morning Consult | June 1–30, 2023 | 317 (LV) | – | 0% | 1% | 18% | – | 2% | 1% | 7% | 3% | 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |64% | 0%Шаблон:Efn | 1% |
| McLaughlin & AssociatesШаблон:Efn-ua | Jun 10–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | – | 19% | – | – | – | 6% | – | 9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |51% | – | 15% |
| – | – | 33% | – | – | – | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |60% | – | 7% | ||||
| National ResearchШаблон:Efn-ua | Jun 5–7, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | 2% | 24% | – | 4% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |39% | – | 21% |
| Victory Insights | Jun 3–6, 2023 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.9% | – | 3% | 21% | – | 5% | – | 5% | 2% | 6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |44% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 12% |
| – | – | 32% | – | – | – | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |49% | – | 19% | ||||
| WPA IntelligenceШаблон:Efn-ua | May 30 – June 1, 2023 | 655 (RV) | – | – | – | 29% | – | 6% | <1% | 4% | 4% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |39% | – | 11% |
| – | – | 43% | – | – | – | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |45% | – | 12% | ||||
| Morning Consult | May 1–31, 2023 | 300 (LV) | – | – | – | 17% | – | 5% | 0% | 8% | 5% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |60% | 4%Шаблон:Efn | 0% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | May 23–25, 2023 | 400 (LV) | – | 0% | 1% | 24% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |50% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 4% |
| – | – | 36% | – | – | – | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |54% | – | 11% | ||||
| Emerson College | May 19–22, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 0% | – | 20% | – | 5% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |62% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | – |
| National ResearchШаблон:Efn-ua | May 9–11, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | – | 26% | – | 6% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |44% | – | 11% |
| – | – | 33% | – | – | – | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |45% | – | 22% | ||||
| McLaughlin & AssociatesШаблон:Efn-ua | Apr 27–30, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | 1% | 20% | 1% | 5% | 0% | 7% | 2% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |54% | 5%Шаблон:Efn | 5% |
| – | – | 22% | – | – | – | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |57% | – | – | ||||
| Morning Consult | Apr 1–30, 2023 | 294 (LV) | – | – | – | 20% | – | 4% | 0% | 7% | 4% | 0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |60% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 2% |
| Victory Insights | Apr 10–13, 2023 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.8% | – | – | 24% | – | 14% | 4% | – | 3% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |54% | 1%Шаблон:Efn | – |
| – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |59% | – | 24% | 5% | – | 8% | – | – | 4%Шаблон:Efn | – | ||||
| – | – | 41% | – | – | – | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |59% | – | – | ||||
| Cygnal | Apr 3–4, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | – | – | 30% | – | 5% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |37% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 19% |
| J.L. Partners | Mar 25 – April 4, 2023 | 628 (LV) | ± 3.9% | – | – | 26% | – | 5% | – | 3% | 1% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |41% | 10%Шаблон:Efn | 14% |
| – | – | 39% | – | – | – | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |47% | – | 15% | ||||
| Morning Consult | Mar 1–31, 2023 | 329 (LV) | – | – | – | 27% | – | 5% | – | 7% | – | 0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |57% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 2% |
| Morning Consult | Feb 1–28, 2023 | 281 (LV) | – | – | – | 25% | – | 6% | – | 9% | 0% | 0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |52% | 8%Шаблон:Efn | 0% |
| Morning Consult | Jan 1–31, 2023 | 367 (LV) | – | – | – | 27% | – | 5% | – | 9% | – | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |51% | 5%Шаблон:Efn | 2% |
| Morning Consult | Dec 1–31, 2022 | 227 (LV) | – | – | – | 35% | – | 2% | – | 11% | – | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |44% | 8%Шаблон:Efn | 0% |
| WPA IntelligenceШаблон:Efn-ua | Nov 11–13, 2022 | 508 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |48% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 37% | – | 16% |
| WPA IntelligenceШаблон:Efn-ua | Aug 7–10, 2022 | 508 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | – | 37% | – | – | – | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |52% | – | 12% |
| Neighborhood Research and MediaШаблон:Efn-ua | Jun 22 – July 1, 2022 | 546 (LV) | ± 4.2% | – | – | 17% | – | 2% | – | 2% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |38% | 4%Шаблон:Efn | – |
| Victory Insights | Mar 5–8, 2021 | 630 (RV) | – | – | – | 4% | – | 6% | – | 8% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |61% | 13%Шаблон:Efn | – |
| – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |20% | – | 10% | – | 19% | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided |33%Шаблон:Efn | – |
Results
See also
- 2024 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 United States presidential election in Iowa
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
Шаблон:2024 Republican primaries
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 4,0 4,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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