Английская Википедия:2024 Taiwanese presidential election

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use dmy dates Шаблон:Infobox election

The 8th direct presidential elections in Taiwan are scheduled to be held on 13 January 2024 as part of the general election.[1][2] Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has been elected to the office of the President twice consecutively since 2016 and is therefore not eligible for the election.

The ruling DPP nominated Vice President Lai Ching-te in March 2023, having already secured the party chairmanship by acclamation. He selected Hsiao Bi-khim, the Representative to the US, as his running mate.

The major opposition Kuomintang (KMT) nominated New Taipei mayor, Hou Yu-ih, as the candidate to the presidential campaign in May 2023. In November, Hou chose the former Legislative Yuan member (legislator) Jaw Shaw-kong to be his running mate. The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) has nominated its leader, Ko Wen-je, the former Mayor of Taipei, who chose Legislative Yuan member (legislator) Cynthia Wu as his running mate, finalising in three presidential candidates who have been nominated by the major parties. Despite previously saying he would support Hou’s nomination, businessman Terry Gou declared his own independent bid in September 2023, before ultimately dropping out in November.

Domestic issues, such as energy policy, national defense and economic development have featured as campaign issues in the election, coupled by foreign issues mostly concerning Taiwan’s Cross-Strait relations with the People's Republic of China, and relations with the United States.[3][4]

Although the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party had initially agreed to field a joint ticket in November 2023, the two sides were unable to reach a final agreement, and each announced their own vice presidential candidate on the last day of registration. Billionaire businessman Terry Gou had submitted enough signatures to qualify him to run the presidential election as an independent, but he later released a statement on 24 November dropping out of the race.[5]

The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on 20 May 2024.

Background

Файл:蔡英文官方元首肖像照.png
Tsai Ing-wen, the incumbent President of the Republic of China, is ineligible to seek re-election after serving two consecutive terms.

Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) became the first woman president after winning the 2016 presidential election, defeating KMT nominee Eric Chu. She won a second term in 2020, and will serve until 2024.[6] Tsai resigned as Chairman of the DPP in 2022 after the party suffered losses in that year’s local elections. Tsai was replaced in an acting capacity by Chen Qimai.[7] Tsai’s Vice President, Lai Ching-te, ultimately became the party chairman by acclamation in late 2022.[8]

Qualifications and procedure

Presidential candidates and Vice Presidential running mates are elected on the same ticket, using first-past-the-post voting. This will be the eighth direct election of the president and vice president, the posts having previously been indirectly elected by the National Assembly until 1996. According to the constitution, the incumbent President, Tsai Ing-wen, who will finish her second full term, is ineligible for re-election. Under the Article 22 of the Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Kuomintang (KMT), Taiwan People's Party (TPP) and New Power Party (NPP), which received more than five per cent of the total vote share in any of the latest general election (presidential or legislative), are eligible to contest the election.

Registration with the Central Election Commission as the candidates for President and Vice President is filed by the way of political party recommendation where a letter of recommendation stamped with the political party's seal issued by the Ministry of the Interior shall be submitted together with the application. Under Article 23, independent candidates and smaller parties are also eligible to contest, registering as the candidates for President and Vice President by the way of joint signature shall, within five days after the public notice for election is issued, apply to the Central Election Commission for being the presenter recommended by way of joint signature, receive a list of joint signers and to receive 1.5 per cent of the total electors in the latest election of the members of the Legislative Yuan, and pay the deposit of NT$1,000,000.[9]Шаблон:Original research inline For the 2024 presidential election, the number of signatures required for independent candidates is approximately 290,000.[10] The complete petition is to be submitted between 13 and 17 September 2023, and the signature collection period follows from 17 September to 2 November 2023.[11] Presidential candidacies were formally registered between 20 and 24 November 2023.[12] Lots for ballot positioning were drawn on 11 December; the Taiwan People's Party ticket was to be listed first, followed by the Democratic Progressive Party, then the Kuomintang.[13]

Timetable

Key Dates
Date Event
15 March 2023 The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) officially nominates Vice President Lai Ching-te as the party's presidential nominee.
8 May 2023 The Taiwan People's Party (TPP) officially nominates former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je as the party's presidential nominee.
17 May 2023 The Kuomintang Party (KMT) officially nominates New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih as the party's presidential nominee.
28 August 2023 Businessman Terry Gou declares his candidacy for the Presidency as an independent.
12 September-4 December 2023 Accepting applications for the election of the president and vice president and registration of electors who return to the country to exercise their right to vote.
14 September 2023 Terry Gou selects actress Lai Pei-hsia as his running mate.
13 November 2023 Gou qualifies to run in the presidential election.
13 November 2023 The KMT and TPP agree to use polling to determine the formation of a joint-ticket.
14 November 2023 Announcement of the signature results of the presidential and vice presidential election.
18 November 2023 The KMT and TPP fail to form a unity ticket by their own deadline.
20 November 2023 The Lai-Hsiao DPP ticket is formed, and formally register at the Central Election Commission.
24 November 2023 Terry Gou withdraws from the election.
24 November 2023 Deadline for presidential candidate registration; the KMT and TPP file separate tickets.
30 December 2023 Presidential debate featuring all three candidates, organized by the Public Television Service.
1 January 2024 Vice presidential debate organized by the Public Television Service.
13 January 2024 Voting will be held from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m.
20 May 2024 The next president will be inaugurated.

Nominations

Democratic Progressive Party

Шаблон:See also Incumbent president, two-time Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential nominee, and former Chair of the DPP Tsai Ing-wen is ineligible to run, having completed two consecutive terms. Tsai resigned as DPP Chair in 2022, following the party’s poor performance in the local elections of that year.[14] After Tsai’s resignation, Vice President Lai Ching-te (also known as William Lai) was unanimously elected to succeed her as Chair of the DPP.[15] Lai was previously selected to be Tsai’s running mate after she defeated him in the 2020 primary.[16] No primary was held, and Lai Ching-te, being the only individual to register in the party's presidential primary, is the nominee of the Democratic Progressive Party.[17][18][19]

In November 2023, it was reported that Lai was considering selecting Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan’s representative to the United States, as his running mate.[20] Hsiao resigned from her position as US representative (de facto ambassador) and returned to Taiwan on 19 November.[21] Lai officially named Hsiao as the election running mate on the same day.[22] Upon selecting Hsiao, Lai called his new running mate “a warrior for democracy” with whom he shared a common vision for Taiwan. The Lai-Hsiao ticket formally registered at the Central Election Commission 20 November 2023.[23]  

Nominees

Файл:Green Island with White Cross.svg
2024 Democratic Progressive ticket
style="width:3em; font-size:135%; background:Шаблон:Party color; width:200px;"|Шаблон:Colored link style="width:3em; font-size:135%; background:Шаблон:Party color; width:200px;"|Шаблон:Colored link
for President for Vice President
Файл:副總統賴清德官方肖像.jpg
Файл:Hsiao Bi-khim (altered).jpg
Vice President of the Republic of China
(2020–present) 		Representative to the United States
(2020–2023)

Kuomintang

Hou Yu-ih, the Mayor of New Taipei since 2018, was drafted by the Kuomintang (KMT) on 17 May 2023 to be its nominee for the presidency.[24] Hou faced opposition from Foxconn founder Terry Gou, who vowed to support him as the KMT’s nominee.[25] On 24 November 2023, the Kuomintang named former legislator Jaw Shaw-kong as its vice presidential candidate.[26]

Nominees

Файл:Emblem of the Kuomintang.svg
2024 Kuomintang ticket
style="width:3em; font-size:135%; background:Шаблон:Party color; width:200px;"|Шаблон:Colored link style="width:3em; font-size:135%; background:Шаблон:Party color; width:200px;"|Шаблон:Colored link
for President for Vice President
Файл:侯友宜市長肖像.jpg
 Файл:Jaw Shaw-kong Cropped.png
Mayor of New Taipei
(2018–present) 		Member of the Legislative Yuan
(1987–1991, 1993–1994)

Taiwan People's Party

Ko Wen-je, being the only individual to register in the party's presidential primary, is the nominee of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP).[27][28] On 24 November 2023, Ko selected Cynthia Wu, current legislator since November 2022, as his running mate.[29]

Nominees

Файл:Emblem of Taiwan People's Party 2019 Logo Only.svg
2024 Taiwan People's ticket
style="width:3em; font-size:135%; background:Шаблон:Party color; width:200px;"|Шаблон:Colored link style="width:3em; font-size:135%; background:Шаблон:Party color; width:200px;"|Шаблон:Colored link
for President for Vice President
Файл:柯文哲 IMG 9322-1 (14300234412) (cropped 2).jpg
Файл:吳欣盈肖像.jpg
Mayor of Taipei
(2014–2022) 		Member of the Legislative Yuan
(2022–present)

Other parties and independents

All independent and minor party candidates need a minimum of 290,000 signatures to register with the Central Election Commission.[30]

Withdrawn candidates

Terry Gou

Billionaire businessman Terry Gou, who founded the global technology manufacturing company Foxconn in 1974, declared his own presidential run as an independent candidate on 28 August 2023.[31] This was despite previously stating he would support Kuomintang nominee Hou Yu-ih. The KMT described Gou’s announcement as ‘deeply regrettable’.[32] Lai Ching-te welcomed Gou’s entrance into the race, saying he would be happy to take on the challenge.[33] Gou was the first of the mainstream candidates to announce his running mate; he selected actress Шаблон:Ill (otherwise known as Tammy Lai) as his running mate on 14 September.[34] Lai had previously played a fictional Taiwanese presidential candidate on a Chinese-language Netflix series, Wave Makers.[35] Gou’s campaign was mired by allegations that it was buying signatures.[36] By November 2023, at least 20 separate investigations into fraudulent practices and signature forgeries were opened.[37] 7 people were arrested in what was described as a ‘signature-buying scheme’ a few weeks earlier.[30] Gou denied these allegations, and claimed that individuals who were buying signatures were acting on their own accord and were not part of his official campaign. Gou submitted his signatures on 1 November 2023.[38] On 13 November, over 900,000 of Gou’s submitted signatures were validated by the election commission, qualifying him to run the presidential election.[39] Amidst the deadline to register with the Central Election Commission, Gou released a statement on 24 November dropping out of the race.[5] In a statement, Gou said “I’m dropping out, but my aspirations live on.”[40]  He did not endorse a candidate.[41]

Файл:Independent candidate icon 3200001.svg
2024 independent politician ticket
Шаблон:Colored link Шаблон:Colored link
for President for Vice President
Файл:TerryGou (cropped).jpg
Файл:12／5 ≋ 賴佩霞 ≋ 《轉念的力量》新書分享會，台中場(cropped).jpg
Founder and CEO of Foxconn
(1974–2019) 		Actor, singer, writer
Other withdrawn candidates

Disqualified candidates

Nine of ten third-party or independent presidential tickets did not meet the signature petition requirements set by the Central Election Commission, and were disqualified from the election. Including Gou, only five presidential candidates and their running mates attempted to submit signatures. The rest are as follows:[43]

  • Шаблон:Ill and Wu Chao-sheng (巫超勝) 256,773 signatures submitted, 2 valid endorsements
  • Cheng Tzu-tsai and Шаблон:Ill (Шаблон:Ill) 608 signatures submitted, 478 valid endorsements
  • Шаблон:Ill and Chou Ke-chi (周克琦) 146 signatures submitted, 58 valid endorsements
  • Fu Yin (符音) and Hsieh Tsu-hsuan (謝祖鉉) 113 signatures submitted, 91 valid endorsements

Election campaign

Файл:Mingde 3rd Road name sign and Team Taiwan banner 20231014.jpg
A "Team Taiwan" election poster featuring William Lai, October 2023.

Throughout the election campaign, almost all polls have showed Vice President William Lai winning the election by a plurality (~32%), with the rest of the vote being split between the KMT and TPP.[44] Lai’s lead increased in September 2023, when Terry Gou announced his own independent bid for the presidency.[45] In August 2023, amid campaiging, Lai Ching-te went to Paraguay for an official visit in his capacity as Vice President, with two stopovers in the United States.[46] Lai insisted he was not campaigning during the trips.[47] In late October, China opened an investigation into Foxconn, after Chinese tax authorities conducted an audit of the company’s subsidies in the Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces.[48]

Lai’s campaign used his late pet dog and Hsiao’s pet cats as campaign mascots, the cats referencing Hsiao’s “cat warrior" diplomacy.[49]

Possible KMT–TPP joint ticket

In late 2023, talks of a possible joint ticket between the KMT and TPP began.[50] It was initially unclear if the KMT’s Hou Yu-ih and the TPP’s Ko Wen-je will join as a ticket, let alone who will be the nominee for president and vice president once a joint ticket was announced.[44] The DPP’s Lai stated he would be able to take on the challenge of a joint ticket, and criticized the coalition plans, arguing the two parties do not share enough similarity in ideology.[51] In November, Ko said that deciding who would lead the ticket as the presidential nominee was the ‘only hurdle’ remaining in forming the ticket.[44] On 13 November, the KMT and TPP agreed to use polling to determine the composition of the joint presidential ticket.[52] The order of the joint ticket was to be chosen based on opinion polls and publicly announced on 18 November,[53] but the two sides were unable to come to an agreement on that date.[54] On 18 November, the original deal collapsed following a dispute regarding the polling.[55] The KMT and TPP were reportedly unable to come to a consensus surrounding the margins of error.[56] Despite the initial collapse, there were still attempts to form a pan-blue coalition ticket. Terry Gou, who himself had run in the KMT primary, was informally invited to talks as well.[57]  A televised press conference between Hou You-ih, Ko Wen-je, Terry Gou, as well as Eric Chu and Ma Ying-jeou took place on 23 November.[58] The press conference did not yield any agreement between any of the involved parties, and was described as “bizarre”.[59] On 24 November, the deadline for candidate registration, and each party announced their own vice presidential candidate, diminishing any chance of a pan-blue ticket.[60]

Debates

Debates for Presidential candidates and Vice Presidential candidates were announced on 8 December. They are set to be hosted by Taiwan’s Public Television Service, and include all 3 candidates for President and Vice President, respectively.[61] The Presidential debate is set to occur on 30 December, while the Vice Presidential debate will occur on 1 January.[62] Prior to the debates, each presidential candidate would host televised policy presentations on 20, 26, and 28 December, while the vice presidential candidates would do the same on 22 December.[13]

2024 Taiwan presidential election debate
Date Organiser Шаблон:Colors Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Colors Шаблон:SmallШаблон:Colors Шаблон:Small
DPP
Шаблон:Small 		KMT
Шаблон:Small 		TPP
Шаблон:Small
style="width:6.5em; background:Шаблон:Party color;" | style="width:6.5em; background:Шаблон:Party color;" | style="width:6.5em; background:Шаблон:Party color;" |
30 December 2023[62] PTS I I I
2024 Taiwan vice presidential debate
Date Organiser Шаблон:Colors Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Colors Шаблон:SmallШаблон:Colors Шаблон:Small
DPP
Шаблон:Small 		KMT
Шаблон:Small 		TPP
Шаблон:Small
style="width:6.5em; background:Шаблон:Party color;" | style="width:6.5em; background:Шаблон:Party color;" | style="width:6.5em; background:Шаблон:Party color;" |
1 January 2024[62] PTS I I I

Opinion polling

Шаблон:Wide image

After candidate registrations

Pollster Fieldwork date Sample size
Lai-Hsiao
Шаблон:Small 		Hou-Jaw
Шаблон:Small 		Ko-Wu
Шаблон:Small 		Others
Undecided
style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"|
ETtoday 20–21 December 2023 1,217 36.2% 34.8% 20.7% 8.2%
TVBS 15–21 December 2023 1,840 33% 32% 24% 11%
QuickseeK 17–20 December 2023 1,288 32.5% 27.2% 26.7% 13.6%
udn 13–17 December 2023 1,250 31% 31% 21% 17%
ETtoday 14–15 December 2023 1,300 38.5% 35.1% 19.6% 6.8%
SETN 11–12 December 2023 1,000 34.7% 28.8% 21.2% 15.3%
TVBS 5–12 December 2023 1,632 36% 32% 22% 9%
Mirror Media 10–11 December 2023 1,075 33.5% 25.2% 23.7% 17.5%
Formosa 27–28 November 2023 1,076 36.6% 30.5% 17.7% 15.3%
RW News 24–28 November 2023 12,041 41.12% 31.05% 25.31% 2.52%
TVBS 24–26 November 2023 1,744 34% 31% 23% 12%
udn 1,238 31% 29% 21% 20%
ETtoday 24 November 2023 1,348 34.8% 32.5% 21.2% 11.6%

Before candidate registrations

Pollster Fieldwork date Sample size Lai
Шаблон:Small 		Hou
Шаблон:Small 		Ko
Шаблон:Small 		Gou
Шаблон:Small 		Others
Undecided
style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"|
24 November 2023 Terry Gou withdraws his candidacy.[5]
Formosa 24–25 October 2023 1,070 32.5% 21.9% 20.4% 5.3% 19.9%
1,070 33.7% 24.6% 23.9% Шаблон:N/a 17.8%
TVBS 18–24 October 2023 1,447 33% 22% 24% 8% 14%
34% 26% 29% Шаблон:N/a 10%
TPOF 15–17 October 2023 1,080 26.5% 20.2% 21.7% 12.4% 19.1%
1,080 29.7% 21.1% 25.6% Шаблон:N/a 23.6%
Mirror Media 14–16 October 2023 1,072 32.3% 17.8% 23.2% 9.2% 17.4%
1,072 32.1% 18.7% 24.8% Шаблон:N/a 24.4%
SETN 1–3 October 2023 1,000 30.9% 17.8% 24.2% 11.6% 15.5%
1,000 32.2% 20.0% 26.8% Шаблон:N/a 21.1%
TVBS 22–26 September 2023 1,127 34% 21% 22% 9% 14%
36% 26% 28% Шаблон:N/a 11%
Mirror Media 23–24 September 2023 1,096 34.5% 16.5% 24.1% 8.5% 16.3%
1,096 33.3% 16.4% 28.0% Шаблон:N/a 22.3%
FTNN 19–24 September 2023 2,402 34.3% 16.3% 18.6% 9.1% 21.7%
FTNN 2,402 34.9% 16.8% 20.8% Шаблон:N/a 27.5%
CMMedia 18–22 September 2023 1,213 27.9% 12.6% 22.4% 12.5% 24.6%
Formosa 20–21 September 2023 1,072 37.3% 19.7% 16.9% 7.4% 18.7%
1,072 40.0% 22.4% 21.6% Шаблон:N/a 15.9%
TPOF 18–20 September 2023 1,077 31.4% 15.7% 23.1% 10.5% 19.4%
1,077 33.4% 17.2% 27.4% Шаблон:N/a 22.1%
TVBS 28 August – 1 September 2023 1,273 30% 19% 23% 14% 13%
28 August 2023 Terry Gou declares his candidacy.
Mirror Media 27–28 August 2023 1,083 33.4% 15.3% 22.7% 12.9% 15.7%
1,083 34.3% 16.2% 27.1% Шаблон:N/a 22.4%
Formosa 23–24 August 2023 1,070 40.1% 15.6% 16.6% 12.0% 15.8%
1,070 42.5% 17.0% 21.1% Шаблон:N/a 19.3%
TVBS 21–24 August 2023 1,171 37% 22% 28% Шаблон:N/a 13%
QuickseeK 17–21 August 2023 1,222 35.6% 16.2% 24.4% 12.4% 11.4%
1,222 35.8% 17.9% 29.6% Шаблон:N/a 16.6%
TPOF 14–15 August 2023 1,081 43.4% 13.6% 26.6% Шаблон:N/a 16.3%
FTNN 9–13 August 2023 2,402 31.2% 14.8% 19.5% 11.8% 22.7%
2,402 33.4% 15.9% 23.2% Шаблон:N/a 27.4%
TVBS 24–26 July 2023 1,618 33% 25% 32% Шаблон:N/a 10%
Formosa 24–25 July 2023 1,071 33.1% 17.3% 20.7% 12.8% 16.1%
1,071 35.1% 19.9% 24.0% Шаблон:N/a 20.4%
1,071 33.8% 17.4% Шаблон:N/a 30.7%Шаблон:R 18.1%
TPOF 17–18 July 2023 1,088 36.4% 20.2% 27.8% Шаблон:N/a 15.7%
TPOF 1,088 33.9% 18.0% 20.5% 15.2% 12.4%
FTNN 11–16 July 2023 2,409 28.0% 12.4% 20.4% 14.4% 24.8%
FTNN 2,409 30.2% 15.3% 25.4% Шаблон:N/a 29.1%
QuickseeK 7–10 July 2023 1,178 34.8% 19.3% 30.8% Шаблон:N/a 15.0%
1,178 32.8% Шаблон:N/a 27.7% 24.5% 15.0%
1,178 33.8% 17.0% Шаблон:N/a 35.6%[63] 13.6%
Z.Media 1–2 July 2023 1,079 29.8% 15.2% 24.4% 14.0% 16.2%
1,079 32.0% 16.3% Шаблон:N/a 35.8%Шаблон:R 15.5%
1,079 29.9% 16.0% 29.8% Шаблон:N/a 23.8%
NCPF 30 June – 2 July 2023 1,075 31% 15% 19% 15% 20%
1,075 34% 17% 25% Шаблон:N/a 24%
CNEWS 28 June – 1 July 2023 1,816 29.3% 18.5% 30.8% Шаблон:N/a 21.4%
Formosa 28–29 June 2023 1,070 33.3% 15.6% 20.9% 15.4% 14.8%
1,070 35.9% 17.1% 28.6% Шаблон:N/a 18.4%
BCC-Gallup 16–20 June 2023 1,083 31.89% 17.93% 24.62% Шаблон:N/a 21.97%
TVBS 14–16 June 2023 1,080 30% 23% 33% Шаблон:N/a 14%
TPOF 12–13 June 2023 1,080 36.5% 20.4% 29.1% Шаблон:N/a 14.0%
CNEWS 31 May – 1 June 2023 1,077 35.7% 25.9% 24.9% Шаблон:N/a 13.5%
Formosa 29–30 May 2023 1,072 35.4% 22.6% 25.5% Шаблон:N/a 16.5%
Formosa 24–25 May 2023 1,072 35.8% 18.3% 25.9% Шаблон:N/a 20%
NCPF 22–24 May 2023 1,082 34% 23% 23% Шаблон:N/a 20%
Fount Media 22–23 May 2023 1,074 26.6% 24.7% 21.1% Шаблон:N/a 27.6%
SETN 17–18 May 2023 1,080 29.8% 29.2% 20.8% Шаблон:N/a 20.2%
TVBS 17–18 May 2023 1,444 27% 30% 23% Шаблон:N/a 20%

Issue poll

Pollster Fieldwork date Sample problem Sample size Lai
Шаблон:Small 		Hou
Шаблон:Small 		Ko
Шаблон:Small 		Gou
Шаблон:Small 		Others
Undecided
style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"|
ETtoday 10–16 October 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,582 34.7% 27.4% 25.5% Шаблон:N/a 12.3%
RW News 10–14 October 2023 Online questionnaire backfill 11,055 42.62% 22.29% 24.93% 5.86% 4.30%
11,055 42.85% 22.87% 26.09% Шаблон:N/a 8.20%
udn 22–25 September 2023 No raw data 1,082 30% 20% 21% Шаблон:N/a 30%
ETtoday 23–24 September 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,368 32.0% 24.5% 20.7% 13.2% 9.6%
RW News 12–16 September 2023 Online questionnaire backfill 10,846 42.52% 22.25% 24.23% 6.58% 4.41%
KPoint Survey & Research 12–14 September 2023 No raw data 1,073 29.4% 18.4% 16.7% 14.0% 21.5%
1,073 29.2% 21.5% 19.6% Шаблон:N/a 29.7%
ETtoday 8–9 September 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,337 35.1% 24.8% 20.0% 12.9% 7.2%
1,337 36.5% 29.5% 22.9% Шаблон:N/a 11.0%
ETtoday 29–30 August 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,495 35.3% 21.4% 17.6% 17.2% 8.4%
ETtoday 18–20 August 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,207 35.4% 25.6% 24.2% Шаблон:N/a 14.9%
RW News 15–19 August 2023 Online questionnaire backfill 11,324 40.56% 22.16% 23.13% 8.96% 5.18%
RW News 11,324 40.99% 22.79% 25.80% Шаблон:N/a 10.12%
ETtoday 15–17 August 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,235 31.7% 18.6% 17.5% 10.2% 22.0%
KPoint Survey & Research 31 July – 2 August 2023 No raw data 1,075 30.3% 15.1% 18.2% 14.8% 21.6%
1,075 32.3% 15.8% 23.1% Шаблон:N/a 28.8%
Newtalk 31 July – 1 August 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,402 30.46% 16.92% 24.71% 17.34% 10.58%
1,402 29.46% Шаблон:N/a 26.23% 26.31% 18.0%
Newtalk 1,402 33.5% 21.4% 29.57% Шаблон:N/a 15.53%
ETtoday 28–30 July 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,753 33.4% 21.0% 21.6% 16.4% 7.7%
ETtoday 1,753 35.6% 24.3% 28.8% Шаблон:N/a 11.3%
TISR 19–20 July 2023 No raw data 1,068 29.0% 13.2% 17.7% 10.7% 4.0%
1,068 33.8% 15.6% 24.9% Шаблон:N/a 6.0%
RW News 12–16 July 2023 Online questionnaire backfill 12,464 38.23% 20.39% 25.29% 9.22% 6.87%
RW News 12,464 38.48% 21.29% 28.34% Шаблон:N/a 11.89%
ACEL 10–12 July 2023 No raw data 1,003 33.6% 14.8% 21.1% 12.5% 18.0%
1,003 32.4% 17.6% 25.9% Шаблон:N/a 24.1%
ERA NEWS 3–6 July 2023 No raw data 1,070 34.9% 14.5% 19.2% 14.6% 16.8%
1,070 35.5% 17.2% 24.2% Шаблон:N/a 23.1%
Newtalk 30 June – 1 July 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 3,245 28.26% 14.63% 21.94% 22.29% 12.89%
3,245 28.49% Шаблон:N/a 24.07% 28.77% 18.67%
Newtalk 1,070 32.77% 21.31% 30.74% Шаблон:N/a 15.19%
RW News 6–10 June 2023 Online questionnaire backfill 12,030 37.8% 21.9% 31.3% Шаблон:N/a 9.1%
KPoint Survey & Research 6–9 June 2023 No raw data 1,076 31.2% 17.9% 21.5% Шаблон:N/a 29.4%
ETtoday 23–25 May 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,223 36.4% 27.7% 23.1% Шаблон:N/a 12.8%
udn 18–21 May 2023 No raw data 1,090 28% 24% 22% Шаблон:N/a 27%

CNEWS weekly poll

Sample Week Fieldwork date Sample method Sample size Lai
Шаблон:Small 		Hou
Шаблон:Small 		Ko
Шаблон:Small 		Gou
Шаблон:Small 		Others
Undecided
style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"|
1st week of December 30 November – 1 December 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,008 36.9% 28.0% 26.0% Шаблон:N/a 9.1%
local phone 1,000 37.1% 32.9% 17.4% Шаблон:N/a 12.6%
4th week of November 24 – 25 November 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,013 36.8% 26.6% 26.8% Шаблон:N/a 9.8%
local phone 1,000 39.9% 29.7% 18.9% Шаблон:N/a 11.5%
24 November 2023 Terry Gou withdraws his candidacy.[5]
2nd week of November 10 – 11 November 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,046 30.8% 18.0% 26.0% 9.3% 15.9%
local phone 1,033 33.9% 22.2% 22.4% 7.3% 14.2%
1st week of November 4 – 5 November 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,000 32.7% 17.3% 25.8% 10.0% 14.2%
local phone 1,000 34.7% 20.9% 19.7% 9.9% 14.8%
5th week of October 29 – 30 October 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,049 25.6% 16.0% 25.4% 13.3% 19.7%
local phone 1,012 29.1% 18.2% 20.4% 10.8% 21.5%
4th week of October 21 – 22 October 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,048 24.0% 16.2% 24.7% 15.8% 19.3%
local phone 1,034 27.6% 19.1% 19.7% 14.1% 19.5%
3rd week of October 13 – 14 October 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,062 29.7% 16.2% 27.7% 11.7% 14.7%
local phone 1,051 34.8% 19.6% 20.4% 8.9% 16.3%
2nd week of October 7 – 8 October 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,045 31.6% 17.0% 26.7% 11.2% 13.5%
local phone 1,030 36.0% 17.8% 20.4% 9.1% 16.7%
1st week of October 29 – 30 September 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,037 28.6% 16.9% 24.3% 12.3% 17.9%
local phone 1,030 31.5% 17.8% 19.8% 10.2% 20.7%
4th week of September 23 – 24 September 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,016 27.3% 14.2% 23.7% 14.2% 20.6%
local phone 1,013 32.6% 14.8% 18.9% 12.3% 20.4%

3rd week of September

15 – 16 September 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,052 28.0% 16.3% 22.6% 13.7% 19.4%
local phone 1,025 29.7% 20.8% 16.7% 14.1% 18.7%
2nd week of September 9 – 10 September 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,145 28.4% 15.6% 23.4% 13.0% 19.6%
local phone 1,127 31.5% 16.1% 18.9% 10.6% 22.9%
1st week of September 1 – 2 September 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,024 29.7% 14.8% 23.4% 12.6% 19.5%
local phone 1,008 35.4% 15.1% 16.7% 10.7% 22.1%
Note：
  • Taiwan CNEWS believes that the different survey methods of each media have led to huge differences in results, and decided to continue to publish presidential election polls starting in September 2023.
  • The survey method is 50% local phone and 50% mobile phone. The number of samples is more than 2,000. In addition, more than 1,000 local phone survey results are simultaneously calculated.

Results

Notes

Шаблон:Notelist

See also

References

Шаблон:Reflist

Шаблон:Taiwanese elections Шаблон:Republic of China presidential elections Шаблон:Authority control

Партнерские ресурсы
Криптовалюты
Магазины
Хостинг
Разное

  1. ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
  2. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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  13. ↑ 13,0 13,1 Шаблон:Cite news
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  43. ↑ Шаблон:Cite news Republished as: Шаблон:Cite news
  44. ↑ 44,0 44,1 44,2 Шаблон:Cite web
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  62. ↑ 62,0 62,1 62,2 Шаблон:Cite web
  63. ↑ Ko as VP.
Источник — http://wikihandbk.com/ruwiki/index.php?title=Английская_Википедия:2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election&oldid=12836115