Английская Википедия:2024 United States Senate election in Michigan

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The 2024 United States Senate election in Michigan will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a Class I member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Michigan. It will be held concurrently with the 2024 United States presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate, other elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Primary elections will take place on August 6, 2024.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow was first elected in 2000, defeating incumbent Republican Spencer Abraham. Stabenow was most recently re-elected in 2018 with 52.3% of the vote and announced on January 5, 2023 that she would not seek a fifth term in office. This will be the first open race for this seat since 1994.

Background

A typical swing state, Michigan is considered to be a purple to slightly blue state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Michigan by less than 3 percentage points. However, Democrats have seen much more success in recent years in the state. Democrats currently control both U.S. Senate seats, a slight majority of the U.S. House congressional delegation, the minimum majority in the state senate of the Michigan Legislature, and all statewide offices.

This race is considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean and the fact that there is no incumbent; however, most analysts consider the race leaning towards the Democrats. In-fighting among Michigan Republicans after the 2022 elections left the state party cash poor in funding for the U.S. Senate race.

Pro-Israel lobby campaign controversy

In November 2023, actor and Democratic Senate candidate Hill Harper gained attention after Politico reported that he had declined an offer of $20 million in campaign contributions from former Motown Motion Picture Studios owner Linden Nelson that would have been contingent upon him dropping out of the Senate race and mounting a primary challenge against U.S. Representative Rashida Tlaib. Prior to the announcement, Harper had supported a "humanitarian ceasefire" and later reiterated his support for an extension to the 2023 Israel–Hamas ceasefire. AIPAC spokesperson Marshall Wittmann replied to the matter stating that it "was absolutely not involved in any way in this matter. Also, our records indicate that [Nelson] has not contributed to AIPAC in over a decade."

Later that same month, fellow Democratic Senate candidate Nasser Beydoun alleged that former Michigan Democratic Party chair Lon Johnson had approached him with an identical offer to drop out of the Senate race and primary Tlaib, despite Beydoun's publicly pro-Palestinian stance. Johnson repeatedly denied the claims, saying, "that's just crazy. I didn't offer him $20 million, or any other amount of money, to run against Rashida. That's insane."

Had either candidate accepted the alleged donation offer, Campaign Legal Center federal reform director Saurav Ghosh said any potential coordination between a candidate and a donor with such amounts of financing would be illegal, and "could thus qualify as an excessive contribution". Meanwhile, Michigan Campaign Finance Network executive director Nick Pigeon said that such overtures, if true, would "appear to violate campaign finance restrictions on coordination between independent expenditures and a candidate committee", albeit rarely enforced.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Nasser Beydoun, businessman, former executive director of the Arab American Chamber of Commerce, and Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in 2006
• Zack Burns, attorney and scientist
• Hill Harper, actor and former member of the President's Cancer Panel
• Leslie Love, former member of the Michigan Natural Resources Commission (2022–2023) and former state representative for the 10th district (2014–2020)
• Elissa Slotkin, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2019–present)

Withdrawn

• Pamela Pugh, president of the Michigan State Board of Education (2015–present) (running for U.S. House)

Declined

• Jocelyn Benson, Michigan Secretary of State (2019–present)
• Pete Buttigieg, U.S. Secretary of Transportation (2021–present), former mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020), and candidate for President of the United States in 2020
• Debbie Dingell, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2015–present) (running for re-election)
• Mike Duggan, Mayor of Detroit (2014–present)
• Abdul El-Sayed, CNN contributor, former executive director of the Detroit Department of Health and Wellness Promotion, and candidate for Governor of Michigan in 2018
• Garlin Gilchrist, Lieutenant Governor of Michigan (2019–present)
• Dan Kildee, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2013–present)
• Andy Levin, former U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2019–2023)
• Karen McDonald, Oakland County Prosecutor (2021–present)
• Mallory McMorrow, state senator for the 8th district (2019–present) (endorsed Slotkin)
• Dana Nessel, Michigan Attorney General (2019–present)
• Hillary Scholten, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2023–present) (running for re-election, endorsed Slotkin)
• Debbie Stabenow, incumbent U.S. senator (2001–present)
• Haley Stevens, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2019–present) (running for re-election, endorsed Slotkin)
• Shri Thanedar, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2023–present)
• Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of Michigan (2019–present)

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Nasser Beydoun (D)	$225,056	$121,850	$103,205
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Zack Burns (D)	$29,073	$24,412	$4,660
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Hill Harper (D)	$1,021,607	$603,648	$417,959
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Leslie Love (D)	$18,160	$3,061	$15,098
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Pamela Pugh (D)	$90,638	$81,363	$9,275
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Elissa Slotkin (D)	$8,855,227	$3,682,148	$5,173,078
Source: Federal Election Commission

Elissa Slotkin has led the field in fundraising with nearly $8.9 million for her Senate campaign as of October 2023. By mid-August 2023, she had raised nearly $6 million for her Senate campaign. Slotkin received more than $35,000 from executives of the studios involved in the 2023 SAG-AFTRA strike and the 2023 Writers Guild of America strike, including more than $26,000 in contributions from Disney executives, $2,500 from a Sony Pictures film executive, and $2,250 from an executive vice president for Paramount Pictures.

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Nasser Beydoun	Zach Burns	Hill Harper	Leslie Love	Pamela Pugh	Jacquise Purifoy	Elissa Slotkin	Other	Undecided
Emerson College	Aug 1–2, 2023	551 (RV)	± 4.1%	2%	3%	8%	2%	1%	3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|34%	22%	25%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• James Craig, former chief of the Detroit Police Department (2013–2021) and disqualified candidate for Governor of Michigan in 2022
• Michael Hoover, pest control company owner
• Peter Meijer, former U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2021–2023)
• Sherry O'Donnell, physician and candidate for Шаблон:Ushr in 2022
• Sandy Pensler, former Wayne County commissioner and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018
• Mike Rogers, former U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2001–2015)
• Sharon Savage, at-large Oscoda Area Schools Board of Education trustee
• Ezra Scott, former Berrien County commissioner (2016–2022)
• Nikki Snyder, member of the Michigan State Board of Education (2017–present)
• Alexandria Taylor, former Allen Park City Attorney
• J.D. Wilson, consulting firm owner

Publicly expressed interest

• Perry Johnson, businessman, former candidate for president in 2024 and disqualified candidate for Governor of Michigan in 2022

Declined

• Tom Barrett, former state senator for the 24th district (2019–2023) and nominee for Шаблон:Ushr in 2022 (running for U.S. House)
• Brian Calley, former lieutenant governor of Michigan (2011–2019) and candidate for Governor of Michigan in 2018
• Tudor Dixon, conservative media personality and nominee for Governor of Michigan in 2022
• John James, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2023–present) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 and 2020 (running for re-election)
• Lisa McClain, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2021–present)
• Candice Miller, Macomb County Public Works Commissioner (2017–present), former U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2003–2016), and former Michigan Secretary of State (1995–2003)
• John Tuttle, vice chair of the New York Stock Exchange

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Michael Hoover (R)	$209,465	$73,525	$135,940
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Sherry O'Donnell (R)	$22,735	$11,777	$10,957
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Mike Rogers (R)	$824,172	$30,612	$793,560
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Sharon Savage (R)	$100,039	$18,521	$81,517
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Nikki Snyder (R)	$169,468	$79,653	$89,814
Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

James Craig vs. Mike Rogers

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	James Craig	Mike Rogers	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)	Oct 9–10, 2023	430 (LV)	± 4.7%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|30%	19%	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|51%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Michael Hoover	Peter Meijer	Mike Rogers	Ezra Scott	Nikki Snyder	Alexandra Taylor	John Tuttle	Other	Undecided
Emerson College	Aug 1–2, 2023	477 (RV)	± 4.4%	3%	9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|12%	1%	6%	1%	1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Independent|39%	29%

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 9, 2023
Inside Elections	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 9, 2023
Elections Daily	Шаблон:USRaceRating	May 4, 2023
CNalysis	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 21, 2023

Polling

Elissa Slotkin vs. James Craig

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Elissa Slotkin (D)	James Craig (R)	Undecided
EPIC-MRA	Nov 10–16, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|40%	38%	22%
Emerson College	Aug 1–2, 2023	1,121 (LV)	± 2.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45%	38%	17%
EPIC-MRA	Jun 8–14, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|40%	39%	21%

Elissa Slotkin vs. Peter Meijer

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Elissa Slotkin (D)	Peter Meijer (R)	Undecided
Emerson College	Aug 1–2, 2023	1,121 (LV)	± 2.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|42%	36%	22%
Mitchell ResearchШаблон:Efn-ua	Jul 11–13, 2023	639 (LV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|41%	28%	31%

Elissa Slotkin vs. Mike Rogers

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Elissa Slotkin (D)	Mike Rogers (R)	Undecided
EPIC-MRA	Nov 10–16, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|39%	37%	24%
EPIC-MRA	Aug 6–11, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|42%	37%	21%
Emerson College	Aug 1–2, 2023	1,121 (LV)	± 2.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|44%	38%	18%
Mitchell ResearchШаблон:Efn-ua	Jul 11–13, 2023	639 (LV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|44%	38%	17%

Elissa Slotkin vs. Nikki Snyder

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Elissa Slotkin (D)	Nikki Snyder (R)	Undecided
Emerson College	Aug 1–2, 2023	1,121 (LV)	± 2.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|44%	36%	20%

Elissa Slotkin vs. John Tuttle

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Elissa Slotkin (D)	John Tuttle (R)	Undecided
Emerson College	Aug 1–2, 2023	1,121 (LV)	± 2.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45%	35%	20%

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

• Nasser Beydoun (D) for Senate
• Zack Burns (D) for Senate
• James Craig (R) for Senate
• Hill Harper (D) for Senate
• Michael Hoover (R) for Senate
• Leslie Love (D) for Senate
• Peter Meijer (R) for Senate
• Sherry O'Donnell (R) for Senate
• Pamela Pugh (D) for Senate
• Mike Rogers (R) for Senate
• Sharon Savage (R) for Senate
• Ezra Scott (R) for Senate
• Elissa Slotkin (D) for Senate
• Nikki Snyder (R) for Senate