Английская Википедия:2024 United States Senate election in Ohio
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:For Шаблон:Distinguish Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsOH
The 2024 United States Senate election in Ohio will be held on Tuesday November 5, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Ohio. Primary elections are scheduled to take place on March 19, 2024.[1] Incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking a fourth term in office.[2] This race is one of three Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024 in a state Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, alongside Montana and West Virginia. Brown's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[3]
Background
Ohio has trended towards Republicans in recent years and is now seen as a moderately red state at the federal level. Republicans control the other U.S. Senate seat, all statewide executive offices, majorities in both state legislative chambers as well as in its U.S. representative delegation. However, in the 2022 midterms Democrats managed to net gain a seat in Ohio's U.S. House delegation.[4][5]
Former President Donald Trump won Ohio in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections by about 8 points. Republican J. D. Vance defeated Democrat Tim Ryan in the 2022 U.S. Senate election by about 6 points.[6][7]
Brown was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent U.S. Senator Mike DeWine, and has won reelection in 2012 and 2018.[8][9][10] Even with the state's Republican partisan lean, this race is expected to be highly competitive, as Brown is generally popular among Ohioans, and most polls consider him to be the favorite to win.[11]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Presumptive nominee
- Sherrod Brown, incumbent U.S. senator (2007–present)[2]
Endorsements
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Sherrod Brown (D) | $21,220,283 | $11,358,424 | $11,233,104 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[12] |
Polling
- Sherrod Brown vs. Tim Ryan vs. Shontel Brown
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown |
Shontel Brown |
Tim Ryan |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 256 (LV)Шаблон:Efn | ± 8.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|58% | 6% | 15% | 21% |
Ohio Northern University | Jul 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|59% | 7% | 17% | 17% |
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Matt Dolan, state senator from the 24th district (2017–present) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[13]
- Frank LaRose, Ohio Secretary of State (2019–present)[14]
- Bernie Moreno, former car dealership owner, father-in-law of U.S. Representative Max Miller, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[15]
Declined
- Warren Davidson, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2016–present) (running for re-election)[16]
- Mark Kvamme, venture capitalist and sports car racing driver (endorsed Moreno)[17]
- Josh Mandel, former Ohio State Treasurer (2011–2019), nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012 and candidate in 2018 and 2022[18]
- Vivek Ramaswamy, pharmaceutical executive[19] (running for president)[20]
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Matt Dolan (R) | $8,784,660 | $2,084,532 | $6,746,717 |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Frank LaRose (R) | $1,041,657 | $172,978 | $868,679 |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Bernie Moreno (R) | $6,453,457 | $1,446,523 | $5,006,933 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[12] |
Polling
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[21] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 9, 2023 |
Inside Elections[22] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 9, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 9, 2023 |
Elections Daily[24] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | May 4, 2023 |
CNalysis[25] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | December 21, 2023 |
Polling
- Sherrod Brown vs. Matt Dolan
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Matt Dolan (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 41% | 38% | - | 22% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 31–November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 47% | 46% | - | 7% |
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% | 30% | 0% | 25% |
Emerson College | October 1–3, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 36% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|38% | – | 26% |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% | 33% | 0% | 22% |
Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% | 43% | – | 11% |
East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% | 44% | 4% | 7% |
- Sherrod Brown vs. Frank LaRose
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Frank LaRose (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 41% | 36% | - | 24% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | - | 8% |
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|44% | 31% | 0% | 25% |
Emerson College | October 1–3, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|39% | – | 23% |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% | 32% | 0% | 23% |
Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 45% | – | 10% |
East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|44% | 42% | 4% | 11% |
- Sherrod Brown vs. Bernie Moreno
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Bernie Moreno (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 42% | 32% | - | 26% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 47% | 44% | - | 9% |
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% | 26% | 1% | 25% |
Emerson College | October 1–3, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|35% | 33% | – | 32% |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% | 28% | 0% | 27% |
Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% | 41% | – | 10% |
East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% | 42% | 2% | 11% |
- Sherrod Brown vs. Joel Mutchler
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Joel Mutchler (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 48% | 43% | - | 9% |
- Sherrod Brown vs. generic Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Causeway Solutions (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | May 19–27, 2023 | 1639 (RV) | ± 2.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|39% | 37% | 24% |
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
External links
- Official campaign websites
- Sherrod Brown (D) for Senate
- Matt Dolan (R) for Senate
- Frank LaRose (R) for Senate
- Bernie Moreno (R) for Senate
Шаблон:2024 United States elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 2,0 2,1 Шаблон:Cite news
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