Английская Википедия:2024 United States Senate election in Ohio

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:For Шаблон:Distinguish Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsOH

The 2024 United States Senate election in Ohio will be held on Tuesday November 5, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Ohio. Primary elections are scheduled to take place on March 19, 2024.[1] Incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking a fourth term in office.[2] This race is one of three Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024 in a state Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, alongside Montana and West Virginia. Brown's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[3]

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Background

Ohio has trended towards Republicans in recent years and is now seen as a moderately red state at the federal level. Republicans control the other U.S. Senate seat, all statewide executive offices, majorities in both state legislative chambers as well as in its U.S. representative delegation. However, in the 2022 midterms Democrats managed to net gain a seat in Ohio's U.S. House delegation.[4][5]

Former President Donald Trump won Ohio in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections by about 8 points. Republican J. D. Vance defeated Democrat Tim Ryan in the 2022 U.S. Senate election by about 6 points.[6][7]

Brown was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent U.S. Senator Mike DeWine, and has won reelection in 2012 and 2018.[8][9][10] Even with the state's Republican partisan lean, this race is expected to be highly competitive, as Brown is generally popular among Ohioans, and most polls consider him to be the favorite to win.[11]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Presumptive nominee

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Sherrod Brown (D) $21,220,283 $11,358,424 $11,233,104
Source: Federal Election Commission[12]

Polling

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Sherrod Brown vs. Tim Ryan vs. Shontel Brown
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown
Shontel
Brown
Tim
Ryan
Undecided
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 256 (LV)Шаблон:Efn ± 8.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|58% 6% 15% 21%
Ohio Northern University Jul 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|59% 7% 17% 17%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Matt Dolan (R) $8,784,660 $2,084,532 $6,746,717
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Frank LaRose (R) $1,041,657 $172,978 $868,679
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Bernie Moreno (R) $6,453,457 $1,446,523 $5,006,933
Source: Federal Election Commission[12]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn
Margin
of error
Matt
Dolan
Frank
LaRose
Bernie
Moreno
Other Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua December 12–14, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 16% 18% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|22% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|44%
SurveyUSAШаблон:Efn-ua December 8–12, 2023 573 (LV) ± 4.6% 18% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|33% 12% 1%Шаблон:Efn Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|35%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesШаблон:Efn-ua December 3–5, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 18% 19% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|23% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|40%
co/efficient (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua November 18–20, 2023 950 (LV) ± 3.18% 13% 14% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|15% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|58%
Emerson College/WJW-TV November 10–13, 2023 468 (LV) ± 4.5% 15% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|18% 10% Шаблон:Party shading/Other|32%Шаблон:Efn Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|25%
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023 294 (LV) ± 6.0% 20% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|30% 7% 0%Шаблон:Efn Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|43%
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 269 (LV)Шаблон:Efn ± 8.2% 13% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|30% 7% 2% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|49%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 18% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|32% 7% 1% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|43%
Suffolk/USA Today July 9–12, 2023 190 (RV) 14% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|19% 9% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|57%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023 405 (RV) ± 4.0% 14% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|17% 7% 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|58%
Causeway Solutions (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua May 19–27, 2023 526 (RV) ± 2.5% 11% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|24% 6% 17% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|42%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[21] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[22] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 9, 2023
Elections Daily[24] Шаблон:USRaceRating May 4, 2023
CNalysis[25] Шаблон:USRaceRating December 21, 2023

Polling

Sherrod Brown vs. Matt Dolan
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Matt
Dolan (R)
Other Undecided
Emerson/WJW-TV November 10–13, 2023 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 41% 38% - 22%
Data for Progress (D) October 31–November 2, 2023 597 (LV) ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 47% 46% - 7%
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 668 (RV) ± 3.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% 30% 0% 25%
Emerson College October 1–3, 2023 438 (RV) ± 4.5% 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|38% 26%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% 33% 0% 22%
Suffolk University July 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% 43% 11%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023 805 (RV) ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% 44% 4% 7%
Sherrod Brown vs. Frank LaRose
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Frank
LaRose (R)
Other Undecided
Emerson/WJW-TV November 10–13, 2023 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 41% 36% - 24%
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023 597 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% - 8%
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 668 (RV) ± 3.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|44% 31% 0% 25%
Emerson College October 1–3, 2023 438 (RV) ± 4.5% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|39% 23%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% 32% 0% 23%
Suffolk University July 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 45% 10%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023 805 (RV) ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|44% 42% 4% 11%
Sherrod Brown vs. Bernie Moreno
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Bernie
Moreno (R)
Other Undecided
Emerson/WJW-TV November 10–13, 2023 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 42% 32% - 26%
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023 597 (LV) ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 47% 44% - 9%
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 668 (RV) ± 3.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% 26% 1% 25%
Emerson College October 1–3, 2023 438 (RV) ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|35% 33% 32%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% 28% 0% 27%
Suffolk University July 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% 41% 10%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023 805 (RV) ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% 42% 2% 11%
Sherrod Brown vs. Joel Mutchler
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Joel
Mutchler (R)
Other Undecided
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023 597 (LV) ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 48% 43% - 9%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Sherrod Brown vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Causeway Solutions (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua May 19–27, 2023 1639 (RV) ± 2.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|39% 37% 24%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Notes

Шаблон:Notelist

Partisan clients

Шаблон:Notelist-ua

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Official campaign websites

Шаблон:2024 United States elections