Английская Википедия:Buy Till you Die
The Buy Till You Die (BTYD) class of statistical models are designed to capture the behavioral characteristics of non-contractual customers, or when the company is not able to directly observe when a customer stops being a customer of a brand.[1] The goal is typically to model and forecast customer lifetime value.
BTYD models all jointly model two processes: (1) a repeat purchase process, that explains how frequently customers make purchases while they are still "alive"; and (2) a dropout process, which models how likely a customer is to churn in any given time period.[2][3]
Common versions of the BTYD model include:
- The Pareto/NBD model, which models the dropout process as a Pareto Type II distribution and the purchase frequency process as a negative binomial distribution[2]
- The Beta-Geometric/NBD model, which models the dropout process, as a geometric distribution with a beta mixing distribution, and models the purchase frequency process as a negative binomial distribution.[2]
The concept was firstly introduced in 1987, in an article in Management Science,[4] which concerns on counting and identifying those customers who are still active.
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