Английская Википедия:2008 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsAZ The 2008 congressional elections in Arizona were held on November 4, 2008, to determine who would represent the state of Arizona in the United States House of Representatives, coinciding with the presidential election. Representatives are elected for two-year terms; those elected would serve in the 111th Congress from January 4, 2009, until January 3, 2011.

Arizona had eight seats in the House, apportioned according to the 2000 United States census. Its 2007-2008 congressional delegation consisted of four Republicans and four Democrats. Two of the Democrats had taken Republican seats in 2006, and were at risk during the 2008 election. The delegation elected in 2008 consisted of three Republicans and five Democrats: district 1 changed party (from open Republican to Democratic), although CQ Politics had forecast districts 1, 3, 5 and 8 to be at some risk for the incumbent party.

The party primary elections were held September 2, 2008.

Overview

Statewide

Party		Candidates	Votes		Seats
			Шаблон:Abbr	%	Шаблон:Abbr	+/–	%
style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" |	Democratic	8	1,055,305	45.47	5	Шаблон:Increase 1	62.50
style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" |	Republican	8	1,021,798	44.03	3	Шаблон:Decrease 1	37.50
style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" |	Libertarian	8	61,100	2.63	0	Шаблон:Steady	0.0
style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" |	Independent	4	9,411	0.41	0	Шаблон:Steady	0.0
style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" |	Green	2	8,080	0.35	0	Шаблон:Steady	0.0
Valid votes			2,155,694	92.88	—
Invalid or blank votes			165,157	7.12	—
Total		30	2,320,851	100.0	8	Шаблон:Steady	100.0

By district

Results of the 2008 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona by district:

District	Democratic		Republican		Others		Total		Result
	scope=col colspan=2 style="background:Шаблон:Party color"|	scope=col colspan=2 style="background:Шаблон:Party color"|
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
District 1	155,791	55.88%	109,924	39.43%	13,072	4.69%	278,787	100.0%	Democratic gain
District 2	125,611	37.16%	200,914	59.44%	11,498	3.40%	338,023	100.0%	Republican hold
District 3	115,759	42.07%	148,800	54.08%	10,602	3.85%	275,161	100.0%	Republican hold
District 4	89,721	72.11%	26,435	21.25%	8,271	6.65%	124,427	100.0%	Democratic hold
District 5	149,033	53.16%	122,165	43.57%	9,167	3.27%	280,365	100.0%	Democratic hold
District 6	115,457	34.55%	208,582	62.42%	10,137	3.03%	334,176	100.0%	Republican hold
District 7	124,304	63.26%	64,425	32.79%	7,760	3.95%	196,489	100.0%	Democratic hold
District 8	179,629	54.72%	140,553	42.82%	8,084	2.46%	328,266	100.0%	Democratic hold
Total	1,055,305	45.47%	1,021,798	44.03%	78,591	10.50%	2,155,694	100.0%

District 1

Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:See also Incumbent Republican Rick Renzi, who had represented the district since 2003, did not run for re-election. He was re-elected with only 52% of the vote compared to 44% for his Democratic opponent – Sedona civil rights attorney Ellen Simon – in 2006; George W. Bush won 54% of the vote in this northern Arizona district in 2004. The district had a PVI of R+2.

Republican primary

In August 2007, Renzi announced he would not seek re-election, four months after the FBI raided Renzi's family business as part of a federal investigation.

Candidates

In the Republican primary, Sydney Ann Hay, mining industry lobbyist, earned a narrower-than-expected victory against Sandra L. B. Livingstone, Tom Hansen and Barry Hall.

Nominee

• Sydney Hay, mining industry lobbyist and candidate for this seat in 2002

Eliminated in primary

• Barry Hall, former Baptist minister
• Sandra Livingstone, former State Department official and lawyer
• Tom Hansen, engineer

Withdrawn

• Preston Korn, candidate for state representative in 2006

Declined

• Ken Bennett, former President of the Arizona Senate
• Bill Konopnicki, state representative
• Steve Pierce, rancher
• Tom O'Halleran, state senator
• Rick Renzi, incumbent U.S. Representative
• Lewis Tenney, former Navajo County Supervisor

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Ann Kirkpatrick, former state representative and prosecutor

Eliminated in primary

• Jeffrey Brown, mental health advocate
• Mary Kim Titla, publisher and former Phoenix TV newscaster
• Howard Shanker, attorney

Withdrawn

• Allan Affeldt, Mayor of Winslow
• Ellen Simon, civil rights attorney and nominee for this seat in 2006 (dropped out in May 2007, citing personal reasons)

Declined

• George Cordova, businessman and nominee for this seat in 2002
• Jim Ledbetter, attorney
• Bob Mitchell, former Mayor of Casa Grande (brother of Democratic Congressman Harry Mitchell)
• Jim Pederson, real estate developer, former Chair of the Arizona Democratic Party and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2006
• Carter Olson, Pinal County attorney
• Steve Owens, Arizona Department of Environmental Quality director and nominee for the 6th district in 1996 & 1998

Endorsements

Kirkpatrick earned endorsements from leaders in government, education, tribal communities, first responders, and other groups. Among those endorsing her were: Governor Janet Napolitano, U.S. Representative Gabby Giffords, U.S. Representative Harry Mitchell, the Arizona Education Association, the Arizona Police Association, the Arizona Conference of Police and Sheriffs, the International Association of Fire Fighters, Navajo County School Superintendent Linda Morrow, county sheriffs in Coconino, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, Navajo, and Pinal Counties, Coconino County School Superintendent Cecilia Owen, Pinal County School Superintendent Orlenda Roberts, Navajo Nation President Joe Shirley Jr., San Carlos Apache Tribal Chair Wendsler Nosie, White Mountain Apache Tribal Chair Ronnie Lupe, former Navajo Nation President Dr. Peterson Zah, and many other tribal leaders. The Arizona Republic, the state's largest newspaper, and the White Mountain Independent and the Arizona Daily Sun, two of the most widely read newspapers in the district, also endorsed her candidacy.

Results

Kirkpatrick won by almost 15 points over Kim Titla.

Independents

Independent Brent Maupin, a Sedona engineer and businessman.

General election

Campaign

Kirkpatrick ran on a platform of tax cuts for 86 million middle-class families, making health care affordable and accessible to all, and encouraging renewable energy projects to end America's dependence on foreign energy and create jobs for rural Arizona. She also supported increasing teacher salaries, expanding SCHIP, and adding a division to the army. As a member of the Arizona State Legislature, Kirkpatrick was known for her willingness to work across party lines.

Hay meanwhile ran on increasing offshore drilling and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge as well as tapping oil reserves in Colorado and Wyoming to stimulate the economy. She also recognized the need to reach across party lines to create meaningful change.

Predictions

The Cook Political Report ranked this race as 'Likely Democratic,' and CQ Politics, the Rothenberg Political Report, and The New York Times all forecast the race as 'Leans Democratic'.

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 6, 2008
Rothenberg	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 2, 2008
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 6, 2008
Real Clear Politics	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 7, 2008
CQ Politics	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 6, 2008

Results

Kirkpatrick's victory resulted in a House gain for Democrats.

• Race ranking and details from CQ Politics
• Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets

District 2

Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:See also Incumbent Republican Trent Franks, who had represented the district since 2003, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 58.6% of the vote in 2006. The district had a PVI of R+9.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Trent Franks, incumbent U.S. Representative

Democratic primary

In what was essentially a rematch of the previous election, Franks was challenged by Democrat John Thrasher(campaign website)

Candidates

Nominee

• John Thrasher, educator and nominee for this seat in 2006

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Powell Gammill, molecular biologist and nominee for this seat in 2004 and 2006

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

• William Crum

General election

Predictions

CQ Politics forecasted the race as 'Safe Republican'.

Results

• Race ranking and details from CQ Politics
• Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets

District 3

Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:See also Incumbent Republican John Shadegg, who had represented the district since 1995, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 59.3% of the vote in 2006. This district was previously held by Arizona's junior United States senator, Republican Jon Kyl. The district had a PVI of R+6.

Republican primary

An outspoken conservative, Shadegg has consistently been re-elected in this Republican-leaning district (Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6) in the northern Phoenix suburbs which gave George W. Bush 57.9 percent of the vote in 2004. However, Lord outraised Shadegg in the first quarter of 2007 and even had more cash on hand compared to Shadegg, which resulted in an unusually competitive race. However, Shadegg's campaign team noted that Shadegg's funds are smaller than expected due to Shadegg donating most of the money in 2006 to fellow Republicans in a last-ditch, albeit lackluster attempt to retain control of Congress.

On February 11, 2008, incumbent Shadegg announced he would not run for an eighth term, saying that he wanted to "seek a new challenge in a different venue to advance the cause of freedom." However, on February 21, Shadegg retracted the statement and announced he would seek re-election. Over 140 Republicans in Congress had signed a letter asking Shadegg to keep his seat. Although it was speculated that he would run for the United States Senate if John McCain were to become president, Shadegg had expressed his intention to leave public life and return to the private sector before changing his mind.

Steve May a former state representative had announced a run for the seat but withdrew from the race when Shadegg announced he would seek another term after all.

Candidates

Nominee

• John Shadegg, incumbent U.S. Representative

Withdrawn

• Steve May, former state representative

Declined

• Pamela Gorman, state senator
• Dean Martin, State Treasurer
• Sean Noble, Shadegg's Chief of Staff
• Jim Waring, state senator
• James Weiers, Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives
• Ed Winkler, Mayor of Paradise Valley

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Bob Lord, tax attorney (campaign website)

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Michael Shoen

Independents

Running as Independents were Mark Yannone (campaign website), Annie Loyd and Edwin Winkler.

Annie Loyd, running on a platform of "transpartisan politics", has been described by The Arizona Republic as a moderate. Born in South Dakota and a community activist in Los Angeles, Loyd is a 15-year resident of Phoenix. She has also appeared at Columbia University. Shadegg's 2006 Democratic opponent, consultant Herb Paine, announced his support for Loyd.

However none of the Independents made the ballot.

General election

Campaign

The race was covered in the East Valley Tribune and showed a 27% independent voter population and noted increased registration of independents, in a district of 600,000 people cutting across urban Phoenix into rural parts of northern Maricopa county. The Federal Elections Commission reports that as of December 31, 2007, Shadegg had raised over $1,000,000, Lord over $600,000, and Loyd $26,000. May and Winkler had not reported any fundraising.

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Shadegg (R)	Bob Lord (D)	Michael Shoen (L)	Undecided
Research 2000 (Daily Kos)	October 20–22, 2008	400 (LV)	±5.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50%	40%	2%	8%
Research 2000 (Daily Kos)	October 6–8, 2008	400 (LV)	±5.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48%	39%	2%	11%
Anzalone Liszt Research (D-DCCC)	October 6–8, 2008	400 (LV)	±4.9%	44%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45%	5%	6%

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 6, 2008
Rothenberg	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 2, 2008
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 6, 2008
Real Clear Politics	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 7, 2008
CQ Politics	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 6, 2008

Results

Despite having his campaign privately criticized by Republican operatives, Shadegg was re-elected by 12 points in strong Democratic year.

• Race ranking and details from CQ Politics
• Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets
• Шаблон:Curlie

District 4

Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:See also Incumbent Democrat Ed Pastor, who had represented the district since 1991, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 72.5% of the vote in 2006. The district had a PVI of D+14.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Ed Pastor, incumbent U.S. Representative

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Don Karg

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Joe Cobb, retired economist and nominee for the 7th District in 2006

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Rebecca DeWitt, accountant

General election

Predictions

CQ Politics forecasted the race as 'Safe Democrat'.

Results

• Race ranking and details from CQ Politics
• Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets

District 5

Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:See also This district has been represented by Democrat Harry Mitchell since 2007. Mitchell unseated conservative Republican J.D. Hayworth by 50% to 47% in this Republican-leaning district in the northeastern Phoenix suburbs that gave George W. Bush 54% of the vote in 2004. The largely Republican nature of this district made a tough 2008 race certain, though Mitchell, who has a government complex in Tempe named after him, had won a lot of tough elections in the past. The district had a PVI of R+4.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Harry Mitchell, incumbent U.S. Representative

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• David Schweikert, former Maricopa County Treasurer, former state representative and candidate for this seat in 1994

Eliminated in primary

• Mark Anderson, former state representative
• Susan Bitter Smith, executive director of the Arizona-New Mexico Cable Communications Association and candidate for the 1st District in 1994 and 2000
• Lee Gentry, business owner, attorney and certified public accountant
• Laura Knaperek, former state representative
• Jim Ogsbury, lobbyist and former congressional aide

Declined

• Hugh Hallman, Mayor of Tempe
• Jeff Hatch-Miller, member of Arizona Corporation Commission and former state representative
• Tom Liddy, lawyer, son of G. Gordon Liddy and candidate for the 1st District in 2000
• Sean Noble, chief of staff to Rep. John Shadegg
• Michele Reagan, state representative
• Matt Salmon, former U.S. Representative and nominee for Governor in 2002

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Warren Severin, businessman and nominee for this seat in 2006

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 20, 2008

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Harry Mitchell (D)	David Schweikert (R)	Undecided
Bennett, Petts and Normington (D)	March 9–11, 2008	400 (LV)	±4.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50%	24%	26%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Harry Mitchell (D)	Laura Knaperek (R)	Undecided
Bennett, Petts and Normington (D)	March 9–11, 2008	400 (LV)	±4.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49%	26%	25%

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 6, 2008
Rothenberg	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 2, 2008
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 6, 2008
Real Clear Politics	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 7, 2008
CQ Politics	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 6, 2008

Results

• Race ranking and details from CQ Politics
• Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets

District 6

Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:See also Incumbent Republican Jeff Flake, who had represented the district since 2001, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 74.8% of the vote in 2006. There was no Democratic candidate in this heavily Republican district in 2004 or 2006. George W. Bush won with 64% here in 2004. The district had a PVI of R+12.

Republican primary

Flake, who was perhaps best known for his opposition to pork barrel projects and advocacy for earmark reform ran unopposed.

Candidates

Nominee

• Jeff Flake, incumbent U.S. Representative(campaign website),

Democratic primary

Candidates

Richard Grayson, an Apache Junction resident who ran as a write-in candidate in Florida's 4th congressional district in 2004, filed with the Federal Election Commission to run for this seat as a Democrat, as did trucking-firm account manager Chris Gramazio. Rebecca Schneider (campaign website), a library supervisor from Mesa, also filed and ended up defeating Gramazio in the Democratic primary.

Nominee

• Rebecca Schneider, library supervisor (D-Mesa)

Eliminated in primary

• Chris Gramazio, trucking-firm account manager

Withdrawn

• Richard Grayson, perennial candidate

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Rick Biondi

General election

Predictions

CQ Politics forecasted the race as 'Safe Republican'.

Results

• Race ranking and details from CQ Politics
• Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets

District 7

Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:See also Incumbent Democrat Raúl Grijalva, who had represented the district since 2003, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 61.1% of the vote in 2006. The district had a PVI of D+10.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Raúl Grijalva, incumbent U.S. Representative

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Joseph Sweeney, educator, nominee for this seat in 2004 and candidate in 2000, 2002 & 2006

Eliminated in primary

• Milton Chewning (campaign website)

General election

Predictions

CQ Politics forecasted the race as 'Safe Democrat'.

Results

• Race ranking and details from CQ Politics
• Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets

District 8

Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:See also Incumbent Democrat Gabby Giffords, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. She was elected with 54.3% of the vote in 2006. The district had a PVI of R+1.

Bush narrowly won here with 52% to 47% for John Kerry in 2004.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Gabby Giffords, incumbent U.S. Representative

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Tim Bee, President of the Arizona Senate

Independents

Derek Tidball (campaign website) also ran.

General election

Campaign

Early on in the campaign Bee was assessed by the Rothenberg Political Report to be the number one challenger race in the nation saying "In 2008, Giffords will face state Senate President Tim Bee (R), whose candidacy represents a slice of sunshine in an otherwise gloomy election cycle for national Republicans... the 8th District should feature one of the most competitive races for the House in the country." Roll Call stated said that Bee's candidacy "erases some key advantages the freshman incumbent carried into her successful 2006 Congressional campaign."

Giffords attracted a lot of attention in late May and June due to the shuttle flight of her husband Mark E. Kelly, who served as commander of the space shuttle's STS-124 mission.

Bee's campaign generated state and national press coverage when his campaign co-chair, former Congressman Jim Kolbe, resigned and withdrew his support in early July. Kolbe had held the seat for 22 years until Giffords took office in 2007.

On July 13, the Arizona Republic summarized the race: "Giffords has proved adept at fundraising and is considered a rising star in Democratic circles. But Bee is one of the state's highest-profile political figures and has enlisted the support of some heavy-hitters, including President Bush, the headliner of a Tucson fundraiser planned for later this month." Giffords has the "advantages of incumbency. Plus, Bee is just off a tough legislative term in which he drew heavy criticism for his role in a state budget deal and the referral of an anti-gay-marriage proposal to the November ballot. Bee remains a popular political figure, and registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than 14,000 in the district." On July 16, the Arizona Republic reported that freshman Congresswoman Giffords "has proved to be the most successful fundraiser among the state's House delegation and now has more than $2 million in her campaign coffers."

Polling

Bee (R) vs Giffords (D-i) graph of collected poll results from Pollster.com

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Gabby Giffords (D)	Tim Bee (R)	Undecided
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D)	June 18–22, 2008	502 (LV)	±?%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 58%	32%	10%
Kenski (R-Bee)	May 15–23, 2008	500 (LV)	±?%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47%	40%	13%

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 6, 2008
Rothenberg	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 2, 2008
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 6, 2008
Real Clear Politics	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 7, 2008
CQ Politics	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 6, 2008

Results

• Race ranking and details from CQ Politics
• Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets

References

Specific

General

• 2008 Competitive House Race Chart The Cook Political Report, November 4, 2008.
• 2008 House Ratings The Rothenberg Political Report, November 2, 2008.

External links

• Elections from the Arizona Secretary of State
• U.S. Congress candidates for Arizona at Project Vote Smart
• Arizona U.S. House Races from 2008 Race Tracker
• Campaign contributions for Arizona congressional races from OpenSecrets