Английская Википедия:2014 United States Senate election in Louisiana
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Louisiana
The 2014 United States Senate election in Louisiana was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Louisiana.
Incumbent senator Mary Landrieu ran for re-election to a fourth term in office against U.S. Representative Bill Cassidy and several other candidates.
Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party and voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar "top two primary" system). Since no candidate received a majority of the vote in the primary election, a runoff election was held on December 6, 2014 between the top two candidates, Landrieu and Cassidy.[1]
In the December 6 runoff, Cassidy defeated Landrieu by 11.86 percentage points (55.93% to 44.07%), settling the fate of the final Senate seat of the 2014 midterms, becoming the first Republican to hold this seat since 1883, and giving Senate Republicans 54 seats in the 114th Congress.[2] This marked the first time since the resignation of William Pitt Kellogg in 1872 that both of Louisiana's Senate seats were held by Republicans, and rendered Cedric Richmond as Louisiana’s only congressional Democrat.
Background
Elections in Louisiana, with the exception of U.S. presidential elections, follow a variation of the open primary system called the jungle primary. Candidates of any and all parties are listed on one ballot; voters need not limit themselves to the candidates of one party. Unless one candidate takes more than 50% of the vote in the first round, a run-off election is then held between the top two candidates, who may in fact be members of the same party. This scenario occurred in the 7th District congressional race in 1996, when Democrats Chris John and Hunter Lundy made the runoff for the open seat, and in 1999, when Republicans Suzanne Haik Terrell and Woody Jenkins made the runoff for Commissioner of Elections.
Candidates
Democratic Party
Declared
- Wayne Ables[3]
- Mary Landrieu, incumbent U.S. Senator[4]
- Vallian Senegal[5]
- William Waymire, retired Marine[3][6]
Withdrew
- Raymond Brown, minister, civil rights activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 1998 and 2002 (endorsed Landrieu)[7][8]
Declined
- Edwin Edwards, former Governor of Louisiana and former U.S. Representative (running for LA-06)[9]
Republican Party
Declared
- Bill Cassidy, U.S. Representative[10]
- Thomas Clements, small business owner[11]
- Rob Maness, retired U.S. Air Force Colonel[12]
Withdrew
- Paul Hollis, state representative[13][14]
Declined
- Scott Angelle, member of the Louisiana Public Service Commission and former Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana[15]
- Charles Boustany, U.S. Representative[16]
- Jay Dardenne, Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana[17]
- John Fleming, U.S. Representative[18]
- Elbert Guillory, state senator[19]
- Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana[20]
- Jeff Landry, former U.S. Representative[21]
- Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, former state representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2002[22]
- Phil Robertson, reality television star[23]
- Buddy Roemer, former governor of Louisiana, former U.S. Representative and candidate for President of the United States in 2012[24]
- Chas Roemer, president of the Louisiana Board of Elementary and Secondary Education and son of former governor Buddy Roemer[25]
- Steve Scalise, U.S. Representative[16]
- Alan Seabaugh, state representative[26]
Libertarian Party
Declared
- Brannon McMorris, electrical engineer[27]
Jungle primary
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 14, 2014
- Complete video of debate, October 29, 2014
Endorsements
Polling
- Jungle primary
Poll source | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Mary Landrieu (D) |
Bill Cassidy (R) |
Paul Hollis (R) |
Rob Maness (R) |
Phil Robertson (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | February 6–9, 2014 | 635 | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 21% | 5% | 4% | 13% | 18% |
Poll source | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Mary Landrieu (D) |
Bill Cassidy (R) |
John Fleming (R) |
Elbert Guillory (R) |
Chas Roemer (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | August 16–19, 2013 | 721 | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 47% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 20% | — | 6% | 2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided | 25% |
Public Opinion Strategies^ | March 3–5, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 47% | 14% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 15% | — | 6% | 18% |
- ^ Internal poll for John Fleming Campaign
- Republican primary
Poll source | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Bill Cassidy (R) |
Chas Roemer (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling | April 6–7, 2013 | 541 | ± 4.21% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 38% | 14% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided | 48% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Runoff
Debates
- Complete video of debate, December 1, 2014
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[33] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 21, 2014 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | December 4, 2014 |
Rothenberg Political Report[35] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 6, 2014 |
Real Clear Politics[36] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 19, 2014 |
Polling
Poll source | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Mary Landrieu (D) |
Bill Cassidy (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | February 8–12, 2013 | 603 | ± 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 50% | 40% | — | 10% |
Harper Polling | April 6–7, 2013 | 541 | ± 4.21% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% | 41% | — | 13% |
On Message Inc.Шаблон:Dead link | August 13–15, 2013 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 45% | 43% | — | 12% |
Harper Polling | August 14–15, 2013 | 596 | ± 4.01% | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% | — | 8% |
Public Policy Polling | August 16–19, 2013 | 721 | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 50% | 40% | — | 10% |
Harper Polling | September 22–23, 2013 | 561 | ± 4.14% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% | 44% | — | 10% |
Public Policy Polling | October 14–15, 2013 | 632 | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% | 41% | — | 11% |
Harper Polling | January 19–20, 2014 | 992 | ± 3.11% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 45% | — | 11% |
Rasmussen Reports | January 28–29, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 44% | 5% | 11% |
Public Policy Polling | February 6–9, 2014 | 635 | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 45% | 44% | — | 10% |
Hickman Analytics | February 17–24, 2014 | 404 | ± 4.9% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 46% | — | 11% |
Voter/Consumer Research | February 20–25, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 45% | 44% | 1% | 9% |
Harper Polling | April 7–9, 2014 | 538 | ± 4.22% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% | — | 10% |
Magellan Strategies | April 14–15, 2014 | 775 | ± 3.52% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 44% | 10% | 4% |
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | May 5–8, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 49% | 49% | — | 2% |
Magellan Strategies | June 5–8, 2014 | 719 | ± 3.65% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50% | 5% | 1% |
Public Policy Polling | June 26–29, 2014 | 664 | ± 3.8% | 47% | 47% | — | 6% |
Rasmussen Reports | July 8–9, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% | 43% | 5% | 6% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | July 5–24, 2014 | 1,456 | ± 3.5% | 46% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% | 6% | 2% |
Senate Conservatives Fund | August 16–18, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 49% | 43% | — | 8% |
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | August 28 – September 2, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% | 46% | — | 6% |
Rasmussen Reports | September 2–3, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 44% | 9% | 6% |
Gravis Marketing | September 5–9, 2014 | 426 | ± 5% | 45% | 45% | — | 10% |
Fox News | September 14–16, 2014 | 617 | ± 4% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 51% | — | 9% |
CNN/ORC | September 22–25, 2014 | 610 LV | ± 4% | 47% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50% | — | 3% |
866 RV | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 51% | 45% | — | 4% | ||
Public Policy Polling | September 25–28, 2014 | 1,141 | ± 2.9% | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48% | — | 7% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 2,187 | ± 2% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% | 0% | 13% |
Hickman Analytics | September 26 – October 2, 2014 | 502 | ± 4.4% | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 46% | — | 9% |
Rasmussen Reports | October 13–14, 2014 | 965 | ± 3% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 52% | — | 5% |
Vox Populi Polling | October 13–14, 2014 | 546 | ± 4.2% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48% | — | 8% |
Multi-Quest International | October 14–19, 2014 | 605 | ± 4% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 43% | — | 17% |
Rasmussen Reports | October 22–23, 2014 | 988 | ± 3% | 46% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50% | — | 4% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | October 16–23, 2014 | 1,316 | ± 5% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 46% | 0% | 12% |
University of New Orleans | October 11–24, 2014 | 590 | ± 4.1% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 51% | — | 6% |
Suffolk University | October 23–26, 2014 | 500 | ± 4% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48% | — | 11% |
NBC News/Marist | October 26–30, 2014 | 630 LV | ± 3.9% | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50% | 1% | 5% |
961 RV | ± 3.2% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 49% | 2% | 6% | ||
Public Policy Polling | October 30 – November 1, 2014 | 1,003 | ± 3.1% | 47% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48% | — | 5% |
Gravis Marketing | November 12–14, 2014 | 643 | ± 4% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 59% | — | 3% |
Vox Populi Polling | November 16–17, 2014 | 761 | ± 3.55% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 53% | — | 5% |
Rasmussen Reports | November 16–19, 2014 | 1,000 | ± 3% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 56% | — | 3% |
JJMC Analytics | November 20, 2014 | 754 | ± 3.6% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 55% | — | 5% |
GEB International | November 20, 2014 | 850 | ± 3.36% | 34% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 60% | — | 6% |
WPA Opinion Research | November 24–25, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 33% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 57% | — | 10% |
Rasmussen Reports | December 2–4, 2014 | 1,000 | ± 3% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 56% | — | 4% |
Poll source | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Mary Landrieu (D) |
Charles Boustany (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | February 8–12, 2013 | 603 | ± 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% | 42% | 10% |
Poll source | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Mary Landrieu (D) |
Jay Dardenne (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | February 8–12, 2013 | 603 | ± 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% | 43% | 11% |
Poll source | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Mary Landrieu (D) |
John Fleming (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | February 8–12, 2013 | 603 | ± 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 50% | 38% | 12% |
Poll source | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Mary Landrieu (D) |
Elbert Guillory (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling | August 14–15, 2013 | 596 | ± 4.01% | 44% | 44% | 11% |
Public Policy Polling | August 16–19, 2013 | 721 | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 50% | 36% | 14% |
Poll source | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Mary Landrieu (D) |
Paul Hollis (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | February 6–9, 2014 | 635 | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% | 42% | 10% |
Poll source | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Mary Landrieu (D) |
Bobby Jindal (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | February 8–12, 2013 | 603 | ± 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 49% | 41% | 10% |
Poll source | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Mary Landrieu (D) |
Jeff Landry (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | February 8–12, 2013 | 603 | ± 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% | 39% | 13% |
Poll source | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Mary Landrieu (D) |
Rob Maness (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling | August 14–15, 2013 | 596 | ± 4.01% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 47% | 41% | — | 12% |
Public Policy Polling | August 16–19, 2013 | 721 | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 50% | 37% | — | 13% |
Public Policy Polling | February 6–9, 2014 | 635 | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 47% | 42% | — | 10% |
Senate Conservatives Fund | August 16–18, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% | 44% | — | 8% |
CNN/ORC | September 22–25, 2014 | 610 LV | ± 4% | 48% | 48% | — | 4% |
866 RV | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 53% | 42% | — | 5% | ||
NBC News/Marist | October 26–30, 2014 | 630 LV | ± 3.9% | 46% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50% | 1% | 4% |
961 RV | ± 3.2% | 46% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% | 1% | 5% |
Poll source | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Mary Landrieu (D) |
Phil Robertson (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | February 6–9, 2014 | 635 | ± 3.9% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 46% | 12% |
Poll source | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Mary Landrieu (D) |
Chas Roemer (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling | April 6–7, 2013 | 541 | ± 4.21% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% | 33% | 21% |
Poll source | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Mary Landrieu (D) |
Steve Scalise (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | February 8–12, 2013 | 603 | ± 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% | 38% | 14% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box gain with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Parishes that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Allen (Largest city: Oakdale)
- Avoyelles (Largest city: Marksville)
- Calcasieu (Largest city: Lake Charles)
- Cameron (Largest community: Grand Lake)
- Claiborne (Largest town: Homer)
- Concordia (Largest city: Vidalia)
- DeSoto (Largest city: Mansfield)
- East Feliciana (Largest town: Jackson)
- Evangeline (Largest city: Ville Platte)
- Iberia (Largest city: New Iberia)
- Jefferson Davis (Largest city: Jennings)
- Lafourche (Largest city: Thibodaux)
- Morehouse (Largest city: Bastrop)
- Natchitoches (Largest city: Natchitoches)
- Plaquemines (Largest community: Belle Chasse)
- Red River (Largest town: Coushatta)
- Saint Martin (Largest city: Breaux Bridge)
- Saint Mary (Largest city: Morgan City)
- Washington (Largest city: Bogalusa)
- Webster (Largest city: Minden)
- West Feliciana (Largest town: St. Francisville)
- West Baton Rouge (Largest city: Port Allen)
By congressional district
Cassidy won 5 of the 6 congressional districts in Louisiana.
District | Cassidy | Landrieu | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 65.64% | 34.36% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Steve Scalise |
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr | 19.64% | 80.36% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Cedric Richmond |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 66.19% | 33.81% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Charles Boustany |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 58.38% | 41.62% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|John Fleming |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 60.96% | 39.04% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Ralph Abraham |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 64.03% | 35.97% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Garret Graves |
See also
References
External links
- Elections Division from the Louisiana Secretary of State
- U.S. Senate elections in Louisiana, 2014 at Ballotpedia
- Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets
- Mary Landrieu for Senate
- Bill Cassidy for Senate
Шаблон:Louisiana elections Шаблон:2014 United States elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 3,0 3,1 Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 16,0 16,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Thomas Clements 2%, Brannon McMorris 1%, Other 0%
- ↑ Wayne Ables (D) 0%, Thomas Clements (R) 1%, Brannon McMorris (L) 3%, Vallian Senegal (D) 0%, William Waymire (D) 1%
- ↑ Brannon McMorris (L) 2%, Other 4%
- ↑ Wayne Ables (D) 0%, Raymond Brown (D) 1%, Thomas Clements (R) 1%, Brannon McMorris (L) 3%, Vallian Senegal (D) 0%, William Waymire (D) 0%, Other 0%
- ↑ Wayne Ables (D) 1%, Thomas Clements (R) 1%, Brannon McMorris (L) 1%, Vallian Senegal (D) 0%, William Waymire (D) 0%
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web