Английская Википедия:2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:For Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsNH The 2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of New Hampshire. Incumbent Republican Governor Chris Sununu won re-election to a second term, defeating former state senator Molly Kelly. Sununu was the first incumbent Republican to win reelection as governor since Steve Merrill was reelected in 1994.
Primary elections were held on September 11, 2018. The gubernatorial election was coincident with races for the state legislature and the United States House of Representatives.
Background
New Hampshire is one of only two states, along with Vermont, where governors are elected to two-year terms. Republican Chris Sununu was elected in the 2016 election.[1]
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Chris Sununu, incumbent governor[2]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Sununu |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TargetPoint/GQR | March 8–15, 2018 | 326 | ± 5.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 77% | 9% | 14% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Molly Kelly, former state senator[3]
- Steve Marchand, former mayor of Portsmouth and candidate for governor in 2016[4]
Declined
- Dan Feltes, state senator[5]
- Chris Pappas, Executive Councilor (running for NH-01)[6][7]
- Colin Van Ostern, former executive councilor and nominee for governor in 2016 (running for Secretary of State)[8]
- Andru Volinsky, Executive Councilor[9]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Connolly |
Molly Kelly |
Steve Marchand |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk University Шаблон:Webarchive | April 26–30, 2018 | 401 | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 21% | 19% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 58% |
TargetPoint/GQR | March 8–15, 2018 | 346 | ± 5.3% | 9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 17% | 11% | 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 58% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
- Aaron Day, former chair of the Free State Project[10] and independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[11]
- Jilletta Jarvis, former secretary of the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire and independent candidate for governor in 2016[12][13]
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[14] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 26, 2018 |
The Washington Post[15] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight[16] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Rothenberg Political Report[17] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics[19] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 4, 2018 |
Daily Kos[20] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News[21]Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Politico[22] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Governing[23] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Molly Kelly (D) |
Jilletta Jarvis (L) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | November 1–4, 2018 | 630 | ± 3.9% | 46% | 46% | 2% | 0% | 6% |
Change Research (D-NH Democratic Party) | October 27–29, 2018 | 901 | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 46% | – | – | – |
Emerson College | October 27–29, 2018 | 1,139 | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 43% | 1% | – | 5% |
University of New Hampshire | October 10–18, 2018 | 499 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% | 39% | 4% | – | 7% |
Saint Anselm College | October 10–15, 2018 | 454 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 39% | 1% | 0% | 12% |
Emerson College | October 10–12, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 35% | 1% | – | 14% |
American Research Group | September 21–26, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 44% | – | 0% | 7% |
University of New Hampshire | August 2–19, 2018 | 389 | ± 5.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 32% | – | 5% | 16% |
Suffolk University Шаблон:Webarchive | April 26–30, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 27% | 4% | – | 21% |
University of New Hampshire | April 13–22, 2018 | 379 | ± 5.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 24% | 2% | 4% | 20% |
- with Steve Marchand
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Steve Marchand (D) |
Jilletta Jarvis (L) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | August 2–19, 2018 | 389 | ± 5.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 33% | – | 4% | 15% |
Suffolk University Шаблон:Webarchive | April 26–30, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 25% | 4% | – | 21% |
University of New Hampshire | April 13–22, 2018 | 379 | ± 5.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 24% | 2% | 2% | 20% |
University of New Hampshire | January 28 – February 10, 2018 | 381 | ± 5.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 42% | 28% | – | – | 30% |
- with Chris Sununu and generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Praecones Analytica | August 13–15, 2018 | 626 | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 33% | 20% |
- with generic Republican and Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TargetPoint/GQR | March 8–15, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% | 39% | 4% | 14% |
- with Mark Connolly
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Mark Connolly (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | January 28 – February 10, 2018 | 381 | ± 5.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 41% | 29% | – | 30% |
- with Sununu and Van Ostern
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Colin Van Ostern (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | January 28 – February 10, 2018 | 381 | ± 5.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 41% | 31% | 28% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Results by county
2018 Gubernatorial election results in New Hampshire (by county) [24] | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
County | Molly Kelly Democratic |
Chris Sununu Republican |
Other votes | Margin | Total votes | ||||
# | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | |
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Belknap | 9,690 | 36.00% | 16,856 | 62.62% | 374 | 1.39% | 7,166 | 26.62% | 26,920 |
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Carroll | 10,432 | 43.46% | 13,308 | 55.44% | 265 | 1.10% | 2,876 | 11.98% | 24,005 |
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Cheshire | 18,158 | 55.80% | 13,875 | 42.64% | 509 | 1.56% | -4,283 | -13.16% | 32,542 |
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Coös | 4,988 | 42.96% | 6,397 | 55.10% | 225 | 1.94% | 1,409 | 12.14% | 11,610 |
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Grafton | 22,932 | 56.89% | 16,734 | 41.52% | 642 | 1.59% | -6,198 | -15.37% | 40,308 |
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Hillsborough | 72,033 | 44.34% | 87,846 | 54.07% | 2,589 | 1.59% | 15,813 | 9.73% | 162,468 |
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Merrimack | 30,540 | 46.97% | 33,513 | 51.54% | 972 | 1.49% | 2,973 | 4.57% | 65,025 |
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Rockingham | 59,269 | 42.29% | 79,195 | 56.50% | 1,699 | 1.21% | 19,926 | 14.21% | 140,163 |
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Strafford | 26,593 | 49.89% | 25,782 | 48.37% | 931 | 1.75% | -811 | -1.52% | 53,306 |
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Sullivan | 7,724 | 44.76% | 9,258 | 53.65% | 273 | 1.58% | 1,534 | 8.89% | 17,255 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Results by congressional district
Sununu won both congressional districts, which simultaneously elected Democrats.[25]
District | Kelly | Sununu | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 44.01% | 54.64% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Chris Pappas |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 47.58% | 50.91% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Annie Kuster |
References
External links
- Official campaign websites
Шаблон:2018 United States elections Шаблон:New Hampshire elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
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