Английская Википедия:2018 United States Senate election in Arizona
Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Arizona
The 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona took place on November 6, 2018.[1] Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake did not seek reelection to a second term. The election was held concurrently with a gubernatorial election, other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, and various other state and local elections.
Primaries were held on August 28, 2018,[2] three days after the death of longtime U.S. Senator John McCain.[3] Martha McSally won the Republican nomination, while Kyrsten Sinema won the Democratic nomination. Green Party candidate Angela Green was also on the ballot, but ended her campaign and endorsed Sinema before Election Day.[4]
The Associated Press called the race for Sinema on November 12, 2018,[5] and McSally conceded that day.[6] Sinema became the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona since 1988. McSally was subsequently appointed by Governor Doug Ducey to the other vacant Senate seat in Arizona, left open after McCain's death and then held on an interim basis by Jon Kyl.
Background
Arizona, located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in 1912, the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of Republicans Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover, the state voted for Democrats until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only by Bill Clinton's narrow victory in 1996. Since then, the state had remained in the Republican camp, and was won by Donald Trump with a 3.5% margin in 2016, although Trump's margin of victory was much smaller than that of past Republican presidential nominees.[7]Шаблон:Better source
Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake announced in October 2017 that he would retire at the end of his current term instead of seeking reelection for another term in 2018.[8] Flake had previously indicated his intent to run for reelection in March 2017. However, he was considered vulnerable due to persistently low approval ratings, a poor relationship with President Trump, and the threat of a primary challenge from former state senator Kelli Ward, who promised to run on a more pro-Trump platform. Additionally, he had won his first term in 2012 by only 3 percentage points, even though Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney won Arizona by 9.[9][10][11]
Republican primary
Candidates
On the ballot
- Joe Arpaio, former Maricopa County sheriff[12][13][14][15]
- Martha McSally, U.S. representative and retired U.S. Air Force Colonel[16][17][15]
- Kelli Ward, former state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[18][19][20][15]
- Nicholas N. Glenn (write-in candidate)[21]
- William Gonzales (write-in candidate)[21]
Failed to file
- Craig Brittain, owner and co-founder of the revenge porn website IsAnybodyDown?[22]
- Christian "C.J." Diegel, financial advisor[23]
- Michelle Griffin[24]
- Shawn Redd[25]
- Nicholas Tutora, pharmacist[26]
Withdrew
- Jeff Flake, incumbent U.S. senator[27][28]
Declined
- Jan Brewer, former governor of Arizona[29][30]
- Paul Gosar, U.S. representative[31][32][33][34]
- Jeff DeWit, treasurer of Arizona (nominated as NASA chief financial officer)[35]
- Andy Biggs, U.S. representative from Arizona's 5th congressional district[13]
- Mark Brnovich, attorney general of Arizona[13]
- Trent Franks, former U.S. representative[36][37]
- Robert Graham, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party[38][29][13]
- Christine Jones, former GoDaddy executive, candidate for governor in 2014 and candidate for AZ-05 in 2016[33]
- Bill Montgomery, Maricopa County Attorney[39]
- Ben Quayle, former U.S. representative[40]
- Matt Salmon, former U.S. representative and nominee for governor in 2002[41][42][13]
- David Schweikert, U.S. representative from Arizona's 6th congressional district[20][13][37]
- John Shadegg, former U.S. representative[39][15]
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Arpaio |
Martha McSally |
Kelli Ward |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data Orbital Шаблон:Webarchive | August 21–22, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 18% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 22% | 1% | 8% |
OH Predictive Insights | August 14–15, 2018 | 578 | ± 4.1% | 13% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 27% | – | 12% |
OH Predictive Insights | July 23–25, 2018 | 576 | ± 4.1% | 15% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 35% | 27% | – | 23% |
Gravis Marketing Шаблон:Webarchive | June 27 – July 2, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 24% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 36% | 27% | – | 14% |
Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | June 21–22, 2018 | 305 | ± 5.9% | 18% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 32% | 19% | 7%[43] | 23% |
Data Orbital Шаблон:Webarchive | June 19–21, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 17% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 38% | 23% | 2% | 21% |
Marist College | June 17–21, 2018 | 371 | ± 6.7% | 21% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 30% | 28% | <1% | 21% |
OH Predictive Insights | June 11–12, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 14% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 39% | 25% | – | 22% |
Remington (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | May 23–24, 2018 | 2,011 | ± 2.3% | 25% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 42% | 23% | – | 10% |
Magellan Strategies (R) | April 11–12 and 15, 2018 | 755 | ± 3.6% | 26% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 36% | 25% | 6% | 7% |
OH Predictive Insights | April 10–11, 2018 | 302 | ± 5.6% | 22% | 27% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 36% | – | 15% |
Data Orbital Шаблон:Webarchive | January 11–15, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 22% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 31% | 19% | – | 27% |
OH Predictive Insights | January 9, 2018 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 29% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 31% | 25% | – | 15% |
WPA Intelligence (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | November 15–16, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 38% | 36% | – | 26% |
OH Predictive Insights | November 9, 2017 | 323 | ± 5.5% | – | 34% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 42% | – | 24% |
Revily (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | October 28–31, 2017 | 380 | ± 3.0% | – | 21% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 32% | 15%[44] | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 34% |
- with Jay Heiler
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Heiler |
Martha McSally |
Matt Salmon |
David Schweikert |
John Shadegg |
Kelli Ward |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data Orbital | October 26–28, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 1% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 26% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 28% |
- with Jeff Flake
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Flake |
Jeff DeWit |
Nicholas Tutora |
Kelli Ward |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GBA Strategies | August 30 – September 7, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 31% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 58% | – | 11% |
JMC Analytics (R) | August 26–27, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 21% | – | 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | – | 29% |
HighGround Public Affairs Шаблон:Webarchive | August 18–19, 2017 | 273 | ± 5.9% | 28% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% | 5% | 24% |
Political Marketing International (R-Ward) | February 7, 2017 | 921 | ± 5.0% | 23% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 30% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 47% |
Remington Research Group | November 15–16, 2016 | 1,122 | ± 2.9% | 30% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 38% | – | 15% | – | 17% |
33% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 42% | – | – | – | 25% | ||||
35% | 35% | – | – | – | 30% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Democratic primary
Candidates
On the ballot
- Deedra Abboud, attorney[45][15]
- Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. representative[46][15]
Failed to file
- Bob Bishop, pilot[47]
- Matt Jette[48]
- David Ruben, physician[49]
- Chris Russell, attorney[50]
- Richard Sherzan, retired administrative law judge, former Iowa state representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[51][15]
Withdrew
Declined
- Mark Kelly, astronaut, scientist, U.S. Navy captain and husband of former U.S. representative Gabby Giffords, (later elected to Arizona's Class 3 Senate seat in 2020). [54]
- Randall Friese, state representative[55][56][57]
- Ann Kirkpatrick, former U.S. representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016 (running for AZ-2)[9][58]
- Greg Stanton, Mayor of Phoenix (running for AZ-9)[59][56][60]
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Deedra Abboud |
Kyrsten Sinema |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data Orbital Шаблон:Webarchive | June 25–27, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 63% | 2% | 29% |
Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | June 21–22, 2018 | 260 | ± 6.2% | 8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | 12%[61] | 30% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
- Adam Kokesh (write-in candidate), anti-war activist and U.S. presidential candidate in 2020[21]
Removed
Green primary
Candidates
Declared
- Angela Green (write-in candidate)[21]
Removed
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 15, 2018
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[65] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 26, 2018 |
Inside Elections[66] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[67] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
CNN[68] | Шаблон:Sort | October 30, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics[69] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight[70] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 6, 2018 |
Daily Kos[71] | Шаблон:Sort | October 26, 2018 |
Fox News[72] | Шаблон:Sort | October 30, 2018 |
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Kyrsten Sinema (D) | $19,287,249 | $20,249,341 | $1,301,542 |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Martha McSally (R) | $16,211,836 | $13,688,178 | $2,523,657 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[73] |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Martha McSally (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (D) |
Angela Green (G) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 4–5, 2018 | 1,217 | ± 2.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 45% | – | 2% | 6% |
HarrisX | November 3–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | November 2–4, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | – | – | – |
OH Predictive Insights | November 2–3, 2018 | 631 | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 48% | 0% | – | 1% |
Emerson College | November 1–3, 2018 | 758 | ± 3.7% | 48% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 2% | – | 2% |
HarrisX | November 1–3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 46% | – | – | – |
Research Co. | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | – | 1% | 10% |
HarrisX | October 31 – November 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 44% | – | – | – |
Gravis Marketing | October 24 – November 2, 2018 | 1,165 | ± 2.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 46% | – | – | 7% |
HarrisX | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 42% | – | – | – |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 2,166 | ± 2.1% | 47% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | – | 2% | 1% |
HarrisX | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 42% | – | – | – |
Vox Populi Polling | October 27–30, 2018 | 677 | ± 3.7% | 48% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 24–30, 2018 | 1,400 | ± 2.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 43% | – | – | – |
FOX News | October 27–29, 2018 | 643 LV | ± 3.5% | 46% | 46% | – | 3% | 5% |
710 RV | ± 3.5% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | – | 4% | 6% | ||
CNN/SSRS | October 24–29, 2018 | 702 LV | ± 4.4% | 47% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | – | 0% | 1% |
867 RV | ± 4.0% | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | – | 0% | 3% | ||
HighGround Public Affairs Шаблон:Webarchive | October 26–28, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 45% | 4% | – | 5% |
NBC News/Marist College | October 23–27, 2018 | 506 LV | ± 5.4% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | 6% | <1% | 3% |
44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | – | 2% | 4% | ||||
793 RV | ± 4.4% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | 7% | <1% | 5% | ||
43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | – | 2% | 6% | ||||
CBS News/YouGov | October 23–26, 2018 | 972 | ± 4.1% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | – | 3% | 5% |
Ipsos | October 17–26, 2018 | 799 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 46% | – | 3% | 3% |
OH Predictive Insights | October 22–23, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 45% | 1% | – | 2% |
NYT Upshot/Siena College | October 15–19, 2018 | 606 | ± 4.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 46% | 1% | – | 6% |
Data Orbital Шаблон:Webarchive | October 16–17, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | 3% | 1% | 8% |
Change Research (D) | October 9–10, 2018 | 783 | – | 44% | 44% | – | – | 11% |
CBS News/YouGov | October 2–5, 2018 | 898 | – | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | – | 3% | 6% |
OH Predictive Insights | October 1–2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 41% | 4% | – | 8% |
FOX News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 716 LV | ± 3.5% | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | – | 2% | 6% |
806 RV | ± 3.5% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | – | 2% | 8% | ||
Vox Populi Polling | September 29 – October 1, 2018 | 702 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 49% | – | – | – |
Suffolk University Шаблон:Webarchive | September 27–30, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | 2% | 0% | 11% |
Latino Decisions | September 10–25, 2018 | 463 LV | – | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | – | – | 11% |
610 RV | – | 37% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | – | – | 17% | ||
Emerson College | September 19–21, 2018 | 650 | ± 4.4% | 39% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | – | 4% | 13% |
NBC News/Marist College | September 16–20, 2018 | 564 LV | ± 4.7% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | 6% | <1% | 6% |
45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | – | <1% | 7% | ||||
763 RV | ± 4.2% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% | 6% | <1% | 8% | ||
44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | – | <1% | 9% | ||||
CNN/SSRS | September 11–15, 2018 | 761 LV | ± 4.3% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | – | 0% | 3% |
854 RV | ± 4.1% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | – | 1% | 6% | ||
Ipsos | September 5–14, 2018 | 1,016 | ± 4.0% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | – | 4% | 5% |
TargetSmart (D) Шаблон:Webarchive | September 8–13, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.0% | 46% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | – | 1% | 3% |
FOX News | September 8–11, 2018 | 710 LV | ± 3.5% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | – | 2% | 5% |
801 RV | ± 3.5% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | – | 3% | 7% | ||
Gravis Marketing Шаблон:Webarchive | September 5–7, 2018 | 882 | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 48% | – | – | 3% |
OH Predictive Insights | September 5–6, 2018 | 597 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 46% | – | – | 6% |
Data Orbital Шаблон:Webarchive | September 4–6, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | – | 2%[74] | 9% |
OH Predictive Insights | July 23–24, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | – | – | 8% |
Gravis Marketing Шаблон:Webarchive | June 27 – July 2, 2018 | 925 | ± 3.2% | 39% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | – | – | 19% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 1,290 | ± 4.5% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | – | – | 7% |
Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | June 21–22, 2018 | 650 | ± 4.0% | 32% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 40% | – | 9% | 20% |
CBS News/YouGov | June 19–22, 2018 | 869 LV | – | 37% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | – | 7% | 10% |
998 RV | ± 3.7% | 34% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% | – | 8% | 14% | ||
NBC News/Marist College | June 17–21, 2018 | 839 | ± 4.5% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | – | 2% | 11% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | April 2–23, 2018 | 1,667 | ± 4.0% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | – | – | 7% |
OH Predictive Insights | April 10–11, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | – | – | 10% |
Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | March 15–16, 2018 | 547 | ± 4.2% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | – | – | 13% |
OH Predictive Insights | November 9, 2017 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | – | – | 9% |
Revily (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | October 28–31, 2017 | 850 | ± 3.4% | 29% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 33% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 37% |
- with Kelli Ward
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kelli Ward (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | July 23–24, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | – | 8% |
Gravis Marketing Шаблон:Webarchive | June 27 – July 2, 2018 | 925 | ± 3.2% | 37% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | – | 17% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 1,290 | ± 4.5% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | – | 7% |
Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | June 21–22, 2018 | 650 | ± 4.0% | 26% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | 8% | 23% |
YouGov | June 19–22, 2018 | 867 LV | ± 3.7% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 6% | 9% |
996 RV | 35% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | 7% | 14% | |||
Marist College | June 17–21, 2018 | 839 | ± 4.5% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | 2% | 12% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | April 2–23, 2018 | 1,667 | ± 4.0% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | – | 6% |
OH Predictive Insights | April 10–11, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | – | 10% |
OH Predictive Insights | November 9, 2017 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | – | 11% |
Revily (R-Ward) | October 28–31, 2017 | 850 | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 34% | 33% | – | 33% |
HighGround Public Affairs Шаблон:Webarchive | October 23–26, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 27% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 34% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 39% |
HighGround Public Affairs Шаблон:Webarchive | August 18–19, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 31% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 32% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 38% |
- with Joe Arpaio
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Arpaio (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | July 23–24, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 36% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54% | – | 10% |
Gravis Marketing Шаблон:Webarchive | June 27 – July 2, 2018 | 925 | ± 3.2% | 33% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | – | 14% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 1,290 | ± 4.5% | 34% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 57% | – | 9% |
Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | June 21–22, 2018 | 650 | ± 4.0% | 30% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54% | 8% | 9% |
YouGov | June 19–22, 2018 | 868 LV | ± 3.7% | 29% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 13% | 8% |
996 RV | 28% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | 13% | 11% | |||
Marist College | June 17–21, 2018 | 839 | ± 4.5% | 32% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 57% | 2% | 9% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | April 2–23, 2018 | 1,667 | ± 4.0% | 32% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 61% | – | 7% |
OH Predictive Insights | April 10–11, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 33% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 59% | – | 8% |
- with generic Republican and generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Morning Consult Шаблон:Webarchive | June 29 – July 9, 2018 | 1,641 | ± 2.0% | 35% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% | 23% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | March 15–16, 2018 | 547 | ± 4.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 45% | 8% |
- with Jeff Flake
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Flake (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GBA Strategies | August 30 – September 7, 2017 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | 13% |
HighGround Public Affairs Шаблон:Webarchive | August 18–19, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 33% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% | 27% |
Public Policy Polling | May 13–15, 2016 | 896 | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 38% | 36% | 27% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Flake (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line) Шаблон:Webarchive | July 31 – August 1, 2017 | 704 | ± 2.0% | 31% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | 22% |
- with Matt Salmon
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Matt Salmon (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revily (R-Ward) | October 28–31, 2017 | 850 | ± 3.4% | 30% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 32% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 38% |
Results
The race was too close to call on Election Day.[75] On November 7, 2018 (one day after the election), KGUN 9 reported that McSally held a narrow lead of 0.9%, with thousands of ballots still uncounted.[76] On November 8, Politico reported that Sinema had taken a 9,610-vote lead.[77] Due to the closeness of the vote count, the Associated Press and other major news outlets did not call the race for Sinema until November 12, 2018, six days after the election.[78] McSally conceded the race to Sinema that day.[79] The results were certified on December 3, 2018.[80]
This was the first Senate election won by a Democrat in Arizona since 1988.[79] Sinema is the first woman to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Arizona.[81]
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box gain with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Results by congressional districts
Sinema won 5 of the 9 congressional districts.[83]
District | Sinema | McSally | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr | 50.64% | 46.47% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Tom O'Halleran |
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr | 52.63% | 45.23% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Ann Kirkpatrick |
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr | 63.9% | 32.93% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Raúl Grijalva |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 32.85% | 64.49% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Paul Gosar |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 42.35% | 55.54% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Andy Biggs |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 47.4% | 50.81% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|David Schweikert |
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr | 75.43% | 21.19% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Ruben Gallego |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 42.88% | 54.89% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Debbie Lesko |
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr | 61.37% | 36.41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Greg Stanton |
Voter demographics
Demographic subgroup | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | Sinema | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | McSally | No Answer |
% of Voters |
---|---|---|---|---|
Gender | ||||
Men | 49 | 49 | 2 | 47 |
Women | 51 | 47 | 2 | 53 |
Age | ||||
18–24 years old | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4 |
25–29 years old | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4 |
30–39 years old | 57 | 39 | 4 | 17 |
40–49 years old | 50 | 48 | 2 | 17 |
50–64 years old | 44 | 55 | 1 | 29 |
65 and older | 51 | 48 | 1 | 29 |
Race | ||||
White | 45 | 53 | 2 | 75 |
Black | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
Latino | 68 | 30 | 2 | 18 |
Asian | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
Other | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
Race and Gender | ||||
White men | 42 | 55 | 3 | 34 |
White women | 47 | 52 | 1 | 41 |
Black men | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
Black women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
Latino men | 66 | 32 | 2 | 9 |
Latina women | 70 | 28 | 2 | 9 |
Others | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4 |
Education | ||||
High school or less | 50 | 46 | 4 | 25 |
Some college education | 45 | 54 | 1 | 28 |
Associate Degree | 43 | 53 | 4 | 10 |
Bachelor's Degree | 52 | 47 | 3 | 23 |
Advanced degree | 62 | 37 | 1 | 14 |
Education and race | ||||
White college graduates | 55 | 45 | N/A | 27 |
White no college degree | 39 | 58 | 3 | 48 |
Non-white college graduates | 72 | 27 | 1 | 9 |
Non-white no college degree | 65 | 33 | 2 | 16 |
Whites by education and gender | ||||
White women with college degrees | 56 | 44 | N/A | 15 |
White women without college degrees | 42 | 56 | 2 | 26 |
White men with college degrees | 53 | 47 | N/A | 12 |
White men without college degrees | 35 | 61 | 4 | 22 |
Non-whites | 68 | 31 | 1 | 25 |
Military service | ||||
Veteran | 38 | 59 | 3 | 14 |
Non-veteran | 54 | 45 | 1 | 86 |
Income | ||||
Under $30,000 | 62 | 34 | 4 | 15 |
$30,000-$49,999 | 63 | 36 | 1 | 18 |
$50,000-$99,999 | 48 | 49 | 3 | 33 |
$100,000-$199,999 | 41 | 58 | 1 | 24 |
Over $200,000 | 44 | 56 | N/A | 9 |
Party ID | ||||
Democrats | 97 | 3 | N/A | 32 |
Republicans | 12 | 86 | 2 | 38 |
Independents | 50 | 47 | 3 | 31 |
Party by gender | ||||
Democratic men | 94 | 6 | N/A | 14 |
Democratic women | 99 | 1 | N/A | 17 |
Republican men | 6 | 91 | 3 | 15 |
Republican women | 16 | 83 | 1 | 23 |
Independent men | 50 | 47 | 3 | 18 |
Independent women | 50 | 47 | 3 | 13 |
Ideology | ||||
Liberals | 94 | 6 | N/A | 22 |
Moderates | 63 | 35 | 2 | 38 |
Conservatives | 14 | 84 | 2 | 40 |
First-time midterm election voter | ||||
Yes | 53 | 44 | 3 | 15 |
No | 48 | 50 | 2 | 85 |
Most important issue facing the country | ||||
Health care | 77 | 20 | 3 | 42 |
Immigration | 16 | 83 | 1 | 31 |
Economy | 39 | 60 | 1 | 18 |
Gun policy | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7 |
Area type | ||||
Urban | 60 | 39 | 1 | 43 |
Suburban | 44 | 54 | 2 | 51 |
Rural | N/A | N/A | N/A | 6 |
Source: CNN[84] |
Aftermath
On December 18, 2018, Governor Doug Ducey appointed McSally to fill Arizona's other Senate seat. The seat was left vacant after the resignation of Jon Kyl, who himself had been appointed following the August 25, 2018 death of John McCain.[85] Both Sinema and McSally were sworn in with the 116th United States Congress on January 3, 2019,[86] marking the first time in history that Arizona was represented by two women in the United States Senate and making Arizona the second state to be represented by two women from different parties.Шаблон:Cn Sinema and McSally are only the second pair of senators from the same state in history to serve together after running against each other the previous year;Шаблон:Cn the first such instance occurred in Oregon in 1996–1997.[87] Ducey stipulated that Sinema would be sworn in first, making her the senior senator; this way, he said, the decision of Arizona's voters would be respected.Шаблон:Cn
Under Arizona law, McSally's appointment was only valid for the duration of the 116th CongressШаблон:Cn and a special election for her seat was held in November 2020 to determine who would finish the remainder of McCain's unexpired term (which expired in 2023). McSally was defeated by Democrat Mark Kelly in that special election.[88][89]
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
External links
- Шаблон:Cite news (constantly updated)
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at OpenSecrets
- Official campaign websites
- Kyrsten Sinema (D) for Senate
- Martha McSally (R) for Senate Шаблон:Webarchive
- Adam Kokesh (L) for Senate Шаблон:Webarchive
- Angela Green (G) for Senate
Шаблон:2018 United States elections Шаблон:Arizona elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Citation
- ↑ Democrat Kyrsten Sinema Wins Arizona Senate Seat. NPR. November 12, 2018.
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
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- ↑ 9,0 9,1 Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ 13,0 13,1 13,2 13,3 13,4 13,5 Шаблон:Cite news
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- ↑ 15,0 15,1 15,2 15,3 15,4 15,5 15,6 15,7 15,8 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Arizona Rep. McSally tells colleagues she’ll run for Senate Шаблон:Webarchive, The Washington Post, Bob Christie (AP), November 7, 2017. Retrieved November 7, 2017.
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
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- ↑ Christian Diegel with 3%, Craig Brittain and Michelle Griffin with 2%, Nicholas Tutora with 0%
- ↑ Matt Salmon 9%, Craig Brittain 4%, Nicholas Tutora 2%
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
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- ↑ Richard Sherzan with 4%, Cheryl Fowler and David Ruben with 3%, Bob Bishop with 2%
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- ↑ Adam Kokesh (L) with 2%
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