Английская Википедия:2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Main Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Use American English Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in New Jersey sidebar
The 2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
Biden carried New Jersey by 15.94%, making the state 11.49% more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's victory came from a coalition of key Democratic constituencies, including 86% of Blacks, 76% of Asians, 72% of Hispanic and Latino Americans, and 50% of Whites.[3] Biden's strength with Asian Americans was evident in New Jersey, where Asians constituted 10.0% of the population in 2019.[4][5]
Biden flipped Gloucester County, which was reliably Democratic until Trump flipped it in 2016. He also became the first Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 to win Morris County, which Cory Booker won in the simultaneous senate election.[6] This also became the first presidential election since 2000 in which Salem County did not vote for the national winner.Шаблон:Refn Biden subsequently became the first Democrat since 1992 to win the White House without carrying Salem County.Шаблон:Refn Trump carried 255 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities, fewer than the 307 he carried in 2016, with Biden carrying the other 310.[7] Biden's 2.6 million votes is the most received by any candidate of either party in a presidential election in the state's history.
Primary elections
The primary elections were originally scheduled for June 2, 2020. In April, they were moved to July 7 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[8] On May 15, 2020, Governor Phil Murphy signed an executive order declaring the primary election to become a primarily vote-by-mail election. Democratic and Republican voters will automatically receive a vote-by-mail ballot while unaffiliated and inactive voters will get a vote-by-mail application. Unaffiliated voters must declare their party in the application and send in to their respective county board of elections in order to vote and receive their primary election ballot. A limited number of polling stations in each county will be available on primary day for those who prefer to vote in person (including with provisional ballots if they're unable to obtain one) and for voters with disabilities.[9]
Republican primary
Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary.[10] The state has 49 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[11]
Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
---|---|---|---|
Шаблон:Sortname | 457,212 | 100 | 49 |
Total | 457,212 | 100.00 | 49 |
Democratic primary
Green primary
Шаблон:Transcluded section Шаблон:Trim
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[12] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 28, 2020 |
Inside Elections[13] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 16, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 8, 2020 |
Politico[15] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | September 8, 2020 |
RCP[16] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 3, 2020 |
Niskanen[17] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | July 26, 2020 |
CNN[18] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 3, 2020 |
The Economist[19] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | September 2, 2020 |
CBS News[20] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | September 27, 2020 |
270towin[21] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 2, 2020 |
ABC News[22] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | July 31, 2020 |
NPR[23] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 30, 2020 |
NBC News[24] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 6, 2020 |
538[25] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | September 27, 2020 |
Fox News[26] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
Polling
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Шаблон:Nobold |
Donald Trump Шаблон:Nobold |
Other/ Undecided Шаблон:Efn |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
270 to Win | October 9 – November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|56.5% | 37.3% | 6.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:HsBiden +19.2 |
Real Clear Politics | September 4 – October 13, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|54.7% | 37.3% | 8.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:HsBiden +17.4 |
FiveThirtyEight | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|58.4% | 37.9% | 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:HsBiden +20.4 |
Average | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |56.5% | 37.5% | 7.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Biden +19.0 |
- Polls
- Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Bernie Sanders (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fairleigh Dickinson University | Feb 12–16, 2020 | 715 (RV) | – | 36% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 53% | – | – |
- Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Elizabeth Warren (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fairleigh Dickinson University | Feb 12–16, 2020 | 715 (RV) | – | 36% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 50% | – | – |
- Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Michael Bloomberg (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fairleigh Dickinson University | Feb 12–16, 2020 | 715 (RV) | – | 32% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 56% | – | – |
- Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Pete Buttigieg (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fairleigh Dickinson University | Feb 12–16, 2020 | 715 (RV) | – | 36% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 48% | – | – |
- Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Amy Klobuchar (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fairleigh Dickinson University | Feb 12–16, 2020 | 715 (RV) | – | 36% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 47% | – | – |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box end
Results by county
Show/hide: [vote percentages]
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Gloucester (largest municipality: Washington Township)
- Morris (largest municipality: Parsippany)
By congressional district
Biden won 9 out of the 12 congressional districts in New Jersey. Trump won 3, including one that elected a Democrat.[47]
Analysis
As the polls predicted, Joe Biden won New Jersey by a wide margin. Biden ran up huge margins in the state's major cities such as Newark, Jersey City, Paterson, Trenton, Atlantic City, Camden, and several others. In addition to carrying all the counties that Clinton won in 2016, Biden flipped Gloucester County, which was a reliably blue county before Trump won it in 2016. Biden also won Morris County, which had never voted Democratic in any presidential race since 1964; Senator Cory Booker concurrently won Morris County in his reelection victory as well. In neighboring Hunterdon County, Biden came within 4.4 points of victory despite the county being a reliably Republican stronghold as well. Biden recorded the highest share of the vote in Sussex and Hunterdon Counties for a Democrat since 1964, the last time either county voted Democratic.
Trump, meanwhile, performed strongly in Ocean County, which is reliably red. He also did well in Sussex and Warren counties, two northern rural counties that have not voted Democratic since 1964. Salem County, which Trump flipped in 2016, remained in his column and he also narrowly held on to Monmouth County, which hasn't voted Democratic since 2000 but where the margins have always been somewhat close. He also improved in the urban counties of Essex and Hudson, due to noticeable improvements in several of those counties' most populated cities, such as Jersey City and Newark.[49]
Ultimately, Trump carried 255 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities, less than the 307 he carried in 2016, with Biden carrying the other 310. Compared to their 2016 margins, 471 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities swung towards Biden in this election. However, Trump was able to improve significantly upon his 2016 margins in many of New Jersey's most heavily populated cities, which kept the statewide margin within 2% of the 2016 results. For example, in New Jersey's most populated city, Newark, Trump nearly doubled his 2016 share of the vote, going from 6.63% to 12.25% of the vote.[49] This was the best Republican performance in Newark since George W. Bush received 12.8% of the vote in 2004.[50] Other populated cities, such as Paterson and Camden, posted similarly notable shifts towards the GOP, with much of the rest of the state shifting towards the Democrats instead.
See also
- United States presidential elections in New Jersey
- Presidency of Joe Biden
- 2020 New Jersey elections
- Bilingual elections requirement for New Jersey (per Voting Rights Act Amendments of 2006)[51]
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
Notes
References
Further reading
External links
- Шаблон:Citation
- Шаблон:Citation
- Шаблон:Cite web (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Шаблон:Ballotpedia
Шаблон:2020 United States elections Шаблон:State results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
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- ↑ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Шаблон:Webarchive, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ 49,0 49,1 Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ Шаблон:Citation
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