Английская Википедия:2022 North Rhine-Westphalia state election

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Infobox election

The 2022 North Rhine-Westphalia state election was held on 15 May 2022 to elect the 18th Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia. The outgoing government (First Wüst cabinet) was a coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Free Democratic Party (FDP) led by Minister-President Hendrik Wüst.

The CDU remained the largest party with 36% of votes, a small increase from 2017, while the opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) declined to 27%. The Greens almost tripled their vote share to 18%. The FDP fell sharply to 6%, and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) slipped to 5%. Overall, the incumbent coalition lost its majority, though the opposition SPD and Greens also fell short of victory.[1][2]

After the election, CDU formed a coalition with the Greens. This was the first time the two parties had worked together on the state level in North Rhine-Westphalia. Hendrik Wüst was re-elected as Minister-President on 28 June, and his cabinet was sworn in the next day.[3]

Election date

The Landtag is elected for five years, with its term commencing when the new Landtag first meets. Elections must take place in the last three months of the legislative period.[4]

Electoral system

The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 128 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 53 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the remaining seats in a way that achieves proportionality overall. The minimum size of the Landtag is 181 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold are ineligible to receive seats.[5]

Background

Шаблон:Mainarticle In the previous election held on 14 May 2017, the CDU became the largest party with 33.0% of votes cast, an increase of seven percentage points. The SPD lost eight points and placed second with 31.2% of votes. The FDP won 12.6% (+4.0pp), and the Greens fell to 6.4% (–4.9pp). The AfD contested its first election in North Rhine-Westphalia, winning 7.4%. Other parties were not able to enter parliament, The Left only closely missing the electoral threshold of 5% winning 4.9% (+2.4pp).

The SPD had led a coalition with the Greens since 2010 (→ cabinets Kraft I und Kraft II), but this government lost its majority in the election. The CDU subsequently formed a coalition with the FDP, and Armin Laschet became Minister-President (→ Cabinet Laschet).

After unsuccessfully leading the CDU/CSU in the 2021 German federal election, Laschet resigned as Minister-President. Hendrik Wüst was elected by the Landtag as his successor on 27 October 2021.[6]

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 17th Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia.

Name Ideology Lead
candidate(s)
Leader(s) 2017 result
Votes (%) Seats
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Шаблон:Small
Christian democracy Hendrik Wüst Hendrik Wüst 33.0% Шаблон:Composition bar
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Шаблон:Small
Social democracy Thomas Kutschaty Thomas Kutschaty 31.2% Шаблон:Composition bar
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | FDP Free Democratic Party
Шаблон:Small
Classical liberalism Joachim Stamp Joachim Stamp 12.6% Шаблон:Composition bar
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | AfD Alternative for Germany
Шаблон:Small
Right-wing populism Markus Wagner Rüdiger Lucassen 7.4% Шаблон:Composition bar
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Шаблон:Small
Green politics Mona Neubaur Felix Banaszak
Mona Neubaur
6.4% Шаблон:Composition bar

Opinion polling

Graphical summary

Шаблон:Wide image

Party polling

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
CDU SPD FDP AfD Grüne Linke Others Lead
style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"|
2022 state election 15 May 2022 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 35.7 26.7 5.9 5.4 18.2 2.1 6.1 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 9.0
Wahlkreisprognose 12–13 May 2022 1,652 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU|33 28.5 6 6.5 16.5 3 6.5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|4.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 9–12 May 2022 2,254 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU|32 29 6 7 17 3 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|3
YouGov 6–12 May 2022 1,046 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU|31 28 10 7 15 4 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|3
INSA 9–10 May 2022 1,000 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU|32 28 8 7 16 3 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|4
INSA 2–9 May 2022 1,000 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU|31 29 8 7 16 3 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|2
Wahlkreisprognose 5–6 May 2022 2,127 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU|30 29.5 9 7 16.5 2.5 5.5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|0.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 3–5 May 2022 1,026 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU|30 28 7 7 18 3 7 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|2
Infratest dimap 2–4 May 2022 1,537 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU|30 28 8 8 16 3 7 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|2
Wahlkreisprognose 1 May 2022 1,853 30.5 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD|31 9 6 16.5 2.5 4.5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|0.5
Forsa 19–26 Apr 2022 2,006 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU|32 28 7 6 17 3 7 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|4
Wahlkreisprognose 20–22 Apr 2022 1,445 31 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD|31.5 6.5 7.5 15 2.5 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|0.5
Infratest dimap 19–21 Apr 2022 1,164 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU|31 30 8 7 16 3 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|1
INSA 11–13 Apr 2022 1,000 29 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD|31 10 7 14 4 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|2
Forsa 4–11 Apr 2022 1,821 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU|30 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD|30 8 6 18 2 6 Tie
Wahlkreisprognose 8–9 Apr 2022 1,230 27.5 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD|33 7.5 6 17.5 3 5.5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|5.5
INSA 28 Mar–4 Apr 2022 1,000 28 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD|30 10 7 15 4 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|2
Infratest dimap 29–31 Mar 2022 1,182 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU|31 30 8 7 15 4 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|1
Wahlkreisprognose 11–13 Mar 2022 1,100 30.5 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD|31 9.5 5 15.5 2.5 5.5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|0.5
Forsa 2–9 Mar 2022 2,006 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU|32 27 8 6 17 3 7 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|5
INSA 15–17 Feb 2022 1,000 27 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD|29 12 8 14 4 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|2
Wahlkreisprognose 13–17 Feb 2022 1,874 29 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD|30 10 8 13.5 4 5.5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|1
Forsa 26 Jan–2 Feb 2022 2,006 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU|29 27 9 7 18 4 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|2
INSA 24 Jan–2 Feb 2022 2,000 26 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD|28 12 8 14 4 8 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|2
Infratest dimap 24–27 Jan 2022 1,160 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU|28 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD|28 10 8 17 3 6 Tie
Wahlkreisprognose 19–20 Jan 2022 1,230 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU|30 27 11 9 13.5 4 5.5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|3
Wahlkreisprognose 12–20 Dec 2021 1,210 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 29 28 12 7 15 3 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 1
Forsa 26 Nov–7 Dec 2021 2,009 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 27 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 27 12 7 17 4 6 Tie
Wahlkreisprognose 24–28 Nov 2021 1,400 25 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 28 13.5 8.5 16 4 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 3
Wahlkreisprognose 11–16 Nov 2021 1,004 27 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 29 12 7 16.5 3.5 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2
Wahlkreisprognose 26–31 Oct 2021 1,009 27 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 30 14 5 16 3 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 3
Infratest dimap 18–21 Oct 2021 1,172 22 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 31 13 7 17 3 7 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 9
Wahlkreisprognose 16–19 Oct 2021 1,320 22 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 30 16 6 16.5 2.5 7 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 8
INSA 4–10 Oct 2021 1,000 20 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 33 15 8 13 4 7 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 13
2021 federal election 26 Sep 2021 26.0 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 29.1 11.4 7.3 16.1 3.7 6.5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 3.1
Wahlkreisprognose 1–9 Aug 2021 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 25 24.5 12 9 20 4.5 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 0.5
Wahlkreisprognose 8–15 Jul 2021 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 30 23.5 11 8.5 18 4 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 6.5
Forsa 10–17 May 2021 1,058 25 19 12 7 Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne| 26 4 7 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 1
INSA 3–10 May 2021 2,014 25 20 11 9 Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne| 26 4.5 4.5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 1
Infratest dimap 6–8 Apr 2021 1,197 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 28 18 11 8 26 3 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2
Infratest dimap 25–28 Jan 2021 1,000 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 37 17 8 6 24 3 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 13
INSA 22–28 Oct 2020 1,008 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 33 23 8 8 19 5 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 10
Infratest dimap 24–29 Aug 2020 1,002 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 34 21 7 7 22 4 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 12
Infratest dimap 8–9 Jun 2020 1,001 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 37 20 7 7 20 4 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 17
Infratest dimap 14–16 Apr 2020 1,003 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 40 19 7 6 20 4 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 20
Forsa 6–8 Apr 2020 1,084 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 39 20 8 6 15 6 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 19
Infratest dimap 24–29 Oct 2019 1,001 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 32 20 8 7 23 6 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 9
Mentefactum 14–21 Oct 2019 1,003 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 31 20 10 10 21 5 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 10
Forsa 1–16 Aug 2019 1,505 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 29 18 11 7 24 5 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 5
2019 EP election 26 May 2019 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 27.9 19.2 6.7 8.5 23.2 4.2 10.3 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 5.7
Infratest dimap 19–21 Feb 2019 1,001 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 30 23 12 9 17 6 3 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 7
Mentefactum 19–21 Nov 2018 1,004 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 28 19 11 11 19 8 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 9
Infratest dimap 4–6 Oct 2018 1,000 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 28 21 11 12 17 8 3 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 7
YouGov 6–12 Sep 2018 1,049 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 31 24 10 13 10 7 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 7
Infratest dimap 7–8 May 2018 1,002 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 35 22 9 12 12 7 3 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 13
Forsa 8–22 Feb 2018 1,015 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 34 24 12 7 10 7 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 10
Infratest dimap 9–11 Jan 2018 1,002 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 34 28 10 9 9 7 3 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 6
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 32.6 26.0 13.1 9.4 7.6 7.5 3.8 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 6.6
YouGov 1–8 Sep 2017 1,048 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 35 30 9 9 6 8 3 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 5
Infratest dimap 29–31 Aug 2017 1,000 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 33 30 13 8 6 6 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 3
2017 state election 14 May 2017 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 33.0 31.2 12.6 7.4 6.4 4.9 4.7 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 1.8

Results

Файл:2022 North Rhine-Westphalia state election - composition chart.svg
Party Constituency List Total
seats
+/–
Votes % Seats Votes % Swing
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) 2,607,596 36.6 76 2,552,276 35.7 Шаблон:Increase 2.8 76 Шаблон:Increase 4
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) 2,092,933 29.4 45 1,905,002 26.7 Шаблон:Decrease 4.6 56 Шаблон:Decrease 13
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE) 1,269,804 17.8 7 1,299,821 18.2 Шаблон:Increase 11.8 39 Шаблон:Increase 25
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Free Democratic Party (FDP) 390,062 5.5 0 418,460 5.9 Шаблон:Decrease 6.7 12 Шаблон:Decrease 16
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Alternative for Germany (AfD) 368,271 5.2 0 388,768 5.4 Шаблон:Decrease 1.9 12 Шаблон:Decrease 4
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| The Left (DIE LINKE) 162,005 2.3 0 146,634 2.1 Шаблон:Decrease 2.8 0 ±0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Die PARTEI 82,699 1.2 0 76,006 1.1 Шаблон:Increase 0.4 0 ±0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutzpartei) 7,488 0.1 0 75,811 1.1 New 0 New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany (dieBasis) 55,292 0.8 0 60,084 0.8 New 0 New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Free Voters (FW) 34,886 0.5 0 49,985 0.7 Шаблон:Increase 0.3 0 ±0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Volt Germany (Volt) 27,784 0.4 0 45,177 0.6 New 0 New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Pirate Party Germany (Piraten) 4,501 0.1 0 19,248 0.3 Шаблон:Decrease 0.7 0 ±0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Team Todenhöfer 3,533 0.0 0 14,799 0.2 New 0 New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Family Party of Germany (FAMILIE) 1,462 0.0 0 14,684 0.2 Шаблон:Increase 0.2 0 ±0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP) 9,664 0.1 Шаблон:Steady 0.0 0 ±0
European Party Love (LIEBE) 739 0.0 0 8,235 0.1 New 0 New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| The Humanists (Die Humanisten) 280 0.0 0 8,211 0.1 New 0 New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Party for Health Research (Gesundheitsforschung) 6,833 0.1 Шаблон:Steady 0.0 0 ±0
Party of Progress (PdF) 6,154 0.1 New 0 New
Democracy by Referendum (Volksabstimmung) 1,038 0.0 0 5,606 0.1 Шаблон:Steady 0.0 0 ±0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| The Urbans. A HipHop Party (Die Urbane) 399 0.0 0 5,201 0.1 New 0 New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Alliance for Innovation and Justice (BIG) 4,222 0.1 Шаблон:Decrease 0.1 0 ±0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Centre Party (ZENTRUM) 1,067 0.0 0 4,162 0.1 Шаблон:Steady 0.0 0 ±0
German Sports Party (DSP) 3,839 0.1 New 0 New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Marxist–Leninist Party of Germany (MLPD) 3,544 0.0 0 3,354 0.0 Шаблон:Decrease 0.1 0 ±0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| German Communist Party (DKP) 1,681 0.0 0 3,049 0.0 Шаблон:Steady 0.0 0 ±0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| The Violets (VIOLETTEN) 631 0.0 0 2,990 0.0 Шаблон:Decrease 0.1 0 ±0
neo. Wellbeing for all (neo) 2,192 0.0 New 0 New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Alliance C – Christians for Germany (Bündnis C) 476 0.0 0 0 New
The Independents (UNABHÄNGIGE) 389 0.0 0 0 New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Liberal Democrats (LD) 185 0.0 0 0 ±0
Humane World (MENSCHLICHE WELT) 158 0.0 0 0 New
Ecological Left (ÖkoLinX) 134 0.0 0 0 New
Modern Social Party (MSP) 85 0.0 0 0 New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Independents 11,435 0.2 0 0 ±0
Valid 7,130,557 99.0 7,146,831 99.3
Invalid 69,736 1.0 53,462 0.7
Total 7,200,293 100.0 128 7,200,293 100.0 195 –4
Registered voters/turnout 12,965,858 55.5 12,965,858 55.5 Шаблон:Decrease 9.6
Source: State Returning Officer

Analysis

The results of the election were widely interpreted in the German press as a rebuke of German chancellor Olaf Scholz's and the SPD's response to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the initial days after the Russian invasion, Scholz promised greater military spending and aid to Ukraine but in the following months was seen as indecisive about exporting heavy weapons to Ukraine. Germany has also been less willing than other European nations to boycott Russian energy imports. North Rhine-Westphalia is located in the industrial heartland of Germany and has traditionally been the base of support for the SPD. The Greens largely benefited from the collapse in support for the SPD, as many of their policies on Ukraine are more popular with the German public.[7][8]

The FDP's result was interpreted as coming from their federal ministers enjoying far less popularity than those of the Greens, popular Christian Lindner not running again, and many 2017 FDP voters migrating to the CDU to prevent Kutschaty from becoming Minister-President.Шаблон:Citation needed

Government formation

Since the incumbent coalition of the CDU and FDP lost its majority in the election, the formation a new government was necessary. The Greens were considered to hold the balance of power, able to enter into coalition either with the CDU or with the SPD and FDP. They held separate talks with the former two parties, but the FDP declined to participate in the belief that a CDU–Green government was a foregone conclusion.[9] The Greens continued exploratory talks with the CDU, and began formal coalition negotiations on 31 May. In a draft paper, they committed to transitioning North Rhine-Westphalia to climate neutrality, phasing out coal by 2030, and building 1,000 additional wind turbines over five years. They also agreed to hire 10,000 additional teachers and ensure equal pay for teachers regardless of the type of school they are employed in.[10] On 10 June, the two parties announced plans to finalise and approve a coalition agreement by 25 June, with Wüst to be re-elected as Minister-President on 28 June.[11]

The CDU and Greens presented their coalition agreement on 23 June, committing to the policies laid out in the previous draft paper, as well as growing police hires from 2,700 to 3,000, expanding public transport by aiming for a 60% increase in the number of buses and trains by 2030, and mandating the installation of solar energy systems in new private constructions from 2025. They also agreed to phase out regulations banning wind turbines from being built within 1,000 metres of residences. The cabinet would comprise the Minister-President, seven CDU ministers, and four Greens.[12] The coalition agreement was approved near-unanimously by a CDU conference on 25 June.[13] The same day, it passed the Greens congress with 85%. There were objections from members who criticised the proposed separation of the agriculture portfolio from the environment ministry. The state Green Youth rejected the prospect of coalition with the CDU outright, stating they could not sufficiently address pressing issues such as climate change, affordability, and rent and housing.[14]

Wüst was re-elected as Minister-President by the Landtag on 28 June, winning 106 votes out of 180 cast, plus one abstention. Fourteen deputies were absent, including four from the CDU and one from the Greens.[3]

References

Шаблон:Reflist Шаблон:ReflistШаблон:2022 elections in GermanyШаблон:North Rhine-Westphalia state election