Английская Википедия:2023 Nigerian presidential election in Lagos State

The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Lagos State was held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.^[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, were also held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.

Peter Obi—the nominee of the Labour Party—won the state by nearly 10,000 votes, a 0.77% margin, in a massive upset over former state Governor Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress.^[2]^[3] The other two major contenders, Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party) and Rabiu Kwankwaso (New Nigeria Peoples Party), trailed with just 5.96% and 0.66%, respectively.^[2]

Background

Lagos State is a highly populated, diverse southwestern state that is a major financial centre along with being a key culture, education, and transportation hub. Although it faces overcrowding and chronic debilitating traffic, it has grown to one of the largest economies in Africa.

Politically, the 2019 elections were a continuation of the state APC's control as Muhammadu Buhari won the state by 12% and the party held all three senate seats while gaining in the House of Representatives elections. On the state level, the APC also retained its House of Assembly majority but the gubernatorial election was prefaced by the unprecedented defeat of incumbent Akinwunmi Ambode in the APC primary, marking the first time an incumbent Nigerian governor was defeated in a party primary. His primary challenger, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, went on to win the general election by a wide 54% margin.

Campaign

Although Lagos State is the home state of Tinubu, both Abubakar and Obi pushed to make the state competitive by targeting certain demographics and using the downballot candidates of their respective parties to lead the direct grassroots campaign.^[4] As a state in the ethnic Yoruba homeland of Yorubaland, most of Lagos State's indigenous population are ethnic Yoruba but over a century of internal migration led to a significant minority of non-Yoruba non-indigenes. These differing ethnic dynamics greatly affected the presidential campaign in the state as Tinubu (an ethnic Yoruba himself) and his surrogates extensively employed ethnic Yoruba identity politics while campaigning across the South West;^[5] on the other hand, the Lagos State bases of both Abubakar and Obi are in the non-indigene community—primarily those originally from the South East or South South—along with youths and educated professionals of all ethnicities.^[4]

Soon after the campaign period began in September 2022, reports from the LP and the PDP emerged over continuous attempts at suppression from APC-backed assailants along with bias from the state government and local police.^[6] Notable incidents included an ambush on the state PDP campaign convoy in Badagry in October and an attack on Obi-aligned free medical services in Eti-Osa in November.^[7] The reports led to fears of electoral violence and voter suppression, with analysts noting the regular reports of suppression and violence from the recent elections in the state (especially in areas with a non-Yoruba majority).^[5]^[6] As the campaign continued into December, the administration of state governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu (APC)—a longtime Tinubu ally—was accused of abusing the power of government for political purposes after reports found that the Lagos State Traffic Management Authority was selectively closing roads and diverting traffic for only APC campaign events.^[8] As the election neared in January, suppression reports increased rapidly with both the LP and PDP accusing the state government and APC of destroying opposition banners and posters, attacking and intimidating of opposition supporters, and continued prevention of using billboards with the LP even claiming that the APC had infiltrated local INEC offices to discard the Permanent Voter Cards of non-indigenes.^[9]

Файл:Harbourseaside-lekki-port5en.jpg

Pre-opening artistic rendering of the Lekki Deep Sea Port—one of several infrastructure projects completed in 2022 and early 2023.

While both SBM Intelligence and ThisDay projected Tinubu to win Lagos State in December 2022, other pundits noted the potential competitiveness of the state with The Africa Report including it in a series on battleground states.^[10]^[11]^[12] The article contended that Tinubu would benefit from the support of the state and federal government in the state, both from the ability to suppress opposition voters and recent infrastructure projects.Шаблон:Efn For Abubakar, reporting focused on the divides within the PDP as the national split between the G5 and the rest of the party had trickled down to the Lagos State PDP as longtime state PDP stalwart Bode George sided with the G5 in its opposition to Abubakar. The split in the state PDP had its gubernatorial nominee—Abdul-Azeez Olajide Adediran—campaigning for Abubakar while George reportedly backed Obi and LP gubernatorial nominee Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour.^[12] The report claimed Obi's chances were based on his campaign's ability to successfully turnout non-indigenesШаблон:Efn and educated youths along with the vital assistance of Rhodes-Vivour.^[12]

In early February, Lagos State polling data and analysis from Stears Business was released with results showed a 4% lead for Obi, its model based on the polling statistics predicted Obi to win the state with 44% of the vote with Tinubu trailing at 32% while Abubakar stood at just 7%. The Stears data revealed a stark religious divide as Obi led by 11% among Christian respondents while Tinubu led by 28% among Muslim respondents; other questions revealed that the respondents had high confidence in INEC and were more excited about the election than previous ones.^[13] In the following days other issues took precedence as allegations of bias against INEC Lagos State Resident Commissioner Olusegun Agbaje led to calls for his resignation while mass coordinated attacks on LP supporters before an Obi rally at Tafawa Balewa Square reinforced fears of further violence.^[14]^[15]

Polling

Polling organisation/client	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Файл:Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (5980497975) (Cropped).png	Файл:Peter Obi.png	Шаблон:CSS image crop	Файл:Atiku Abubakar-2010 (cropped).jpg	Others	Undecided	Undisclosed	Not voting
			Tinubu APC	Obi LP	Kwankwaso NNPP	Abubakar PDP
			style="background:Шаблон:Party color" \|	style="background:Шаблон:Party color" \|	style="background:Шаблон:Party color" \|	style="background:Шаблон:Party color" \|
BantuPage	December 2022	N/A	28%	Шаблон:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)\|31%	1%	5%	–	14%	5%	16%
Nextier (Lagos crosstabs of national poll)	27 January 2023	N/A	25.2%	Шаблон:Party shading/Labour Party (Nigeria)\|39.4%	0.5%	14.7%	3.2%	17.0%	–	–
Stears	January 2023	500	21%	25%	2%	3%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Nonpartisan\|45%	–	6%
SBM Intelligence for EiE (Lagos crosstabs of national poll)	22 January-6 February 2023	N/A	Шаблон:Party shading/All Progressives Congress\|63%	25%	–	10%	–	1%	–	–

Projections

Source	Projection		As of
Шаблон:Nowrap^[16]	Tossup		24 February 2023
Dataphyte Шаблон:Efn^[17]
	Tinubu:	Шаблон:Party shading/All Progressives Congress\| 44.61%	11 February 2023
	Obi:	18.53%
	Abubakar:	21.21%
	Others:	15.66%
Enough is Enough- Шаблон:Nowrap	colspan=2 Шаблон:Party shading/All Progressives Congress \| Tinubu	17 February 2023
SBM Intelligence Шаблон:Efn^[10]	colspan=2 Шаблон:Party shading/All Progressives Congress \| Tinubu	15 December 2022
ThisDay Шаблон:Efn^[11]
	Tinubu:	Шаблон:Party shading/All Progressives Congress\| 45%	27 December 2022
	Obi:	25%
	Kwankwaso:	5%
	Abubakar:	20%
	Others/Undecided:	5%
Шаблон:Nowrap	colspan=2 Шаблон:Party shading/All Progressives Congress \| Tinubu	12-19 February 2023

Conduct

Pre-election

Шаблон:Excerpt

General election

Results

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District	Bola Tinubu APC		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Others		Total Valid Votes
Senatorial District	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Total Valid Votes
Lagos Central Senatorial District Шаблон:Efn	117,580	47.44%	108,633	43.83%	1,497	0.60%	14,543	5.87%	5,614	2.26%	247,867
Lagos East Senatorial District Шаблон:Efn	149,667	50.45%	118,348	39.89%	1,958	0.66%	19,565	6.60%	7,112	2.40%	296,650
Lagos West Senatorial District Шаблон:Efn	289,288	41.68%	340,446	49.05%	4,859	0.70%	40,713	5.87%	18,796	2.71%	694,102
Totals	572,606	45.04%	582,454	45.81%	8,442	0.66%	75,750	5.96%	32,199	2.53%	1,271,451

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency	Bola Tinubu APC		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Others		Total Valid Votes
Federal Constituency	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Total Valid Votes
Agege Federal ConstituencyШаблон:Efn	29,568	58.10%	13,270	26.08%	1,513	2.97%	4,498	8.84%	2,043	4.01%	50,892
Ajeromi/Ifelodun Federal ConstituencyШаблон:Efn	25,938	37.82%	35,663	51.99%	436	0.64%	4,680	6.82%	1,873	2.73%	68,590
Alimosho Federal ConstituencyШаблон:Efn	62,909	42.54%	71,327	48.24%	701	0.47%	8,201	5.55%	4,732	3.20%	147,870
Amuwo Odofin Federal ConstituencyШаблон:Efn	13,318	18.24%	55,547	76.09%	330	0.45%	2,383	3.26%	1,429	1.96%	73,007
Apapa Federal ConstituencyШаблон:Efn	15,471	56.86%	7,566	27.80%	338	1.24%	2,997	11.01%	840	3.09%	27,212
Badagry Federal ConstituencyШаблон:Efn	31,903	63.03%	10,956	21.64%	153	0.30%	6,024	11.9%	1,582	3.13%	50,618
Epe Federal ConstituencyШаблон:Efn	19,867	67.98%	3,497	11.97%	76	0.26%	5,221	17.87%	561	1.92%	29,222
Eti-Osa Federal ConstituencyШаблон:Efn	15,317	24.46%	42,388	67.69%	381	0.61%	3,369	5.38%	1,162	1.86%	62,617
Ibeju-Lekki Federal ConstituencyШаблон:Efn	14,685	51.88%	10,410	36.78%	104	0.37%	2,329	8.23%	776	2.74%	28,304
Ifako/Ijaiye Federal ConstituencyШаблон:Efn	14,685	51.88%	10,410	36.78%	104	0.37%	2,329	8.23%	776	2.74%	28,304
Ikeja Federal ConstituencyШаблон:Efn	21,276	38.64%	30,004	54.49%	337	0.61%	2,280	4.14%	1,165	2.12%	55,062
Ikorodu Federal ConstituencyШаблон:Efn	50,353	58.05%	28,951	33.37%	400	0.46%	4,508	5.20%	2,535	2.92%	86,747
Kosofe Federal ConstituencyШаблон:Efn	36,883	40.81%	46,554	51.51%	902	1.00%	4,058	4.49%	1,977	2.19%	90,374
Lagos Island I Federal Constituency and Lagos Island II Federal ConstituencyШаблон:Efn Шаблон:Efn	27,760	81.92%	3,058	9.03%	79	0.23%	2,521	7.44%	468	1.38%	33,886
Lagos Mainland Federal ConstituencyШаблон:Efn	20,030	46.43%	18,698	43.34%	257	0.60%	3,005	6.96%	1,153	2.67%	43,143
Mushin I Federal Constituency and Mushin II Federal ConstituencyШаблон:Efn Шаблон:Efn	41,907	58.85%	23,390	32.84%	410	0.58%	3,478	4.88%	2,030	2.85%	71,215
Ojo Federal ConstituencyШаблон:Efn	20,603	31.61%	38,859	59.63%	462	0.71%	3,701	5.68%	1,543	2.37%	65,168
Oshodi-Isolo I Federal Constituency and Oshodi-Isolo II Federal ConstituencyШаблон:Efn Шаблон:Efn	27,181	32.60%	51,020	61.19%	413	0.50%	3,139	3.76%	1,623	3.76%	83,376
Somolu Federal ConstituencyШаблон:Efn	27,879	44.96%	28,936	46.67%	476	0.77%	3,449	5.56%	1,263	2.04%	62,003
Surulere I Federal Constituency and Surulere II Federal ConstituencyШаблон:Efn Шаблон:Efn	39,002	48.15%	36,923	45.58%	442	0.55%	2,651	3.27%	1,991	2.46%	81,009
Totals	572,606	45.04%	582,454	45.81%	8,442	0.66%	75,750	5.96%	32,199	2.53%	1,271,451

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

LGA	Bola Tinubu APC		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Others		Total Valid Votes	Turnout Percentage
LGA	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Total Valid Votes	Turnout Percentage
Agege^[18]	29,568	58.10%	13,270	26.08%	1,513	2.97%	4,498	8.84%	2,043	4.01%	50,892	14.71%
Ajeromi-Ifelodun^[19]	25,938	37.82%	35,663	51.99%	436	0.64%	4,680	6.82%	1,873	2.73%	68,590	16.85%
Alimosho^[20]^[21]	62,909	42.54%	71,327	48.24%	701	0.47%	8,201	5.55%	4,732	3.20%	147,870	18.49%
Amuwo-Odofin^[22]	13,318	18.24%	55,547	76.09%	330	0.45%	2,383	3.26%	1,429	1.96%	73,007	23.18%
Apapa^[23]	15,471	56.86%	7,566	27.80%	338	1.24%	2,997	11.01%	840	3.09%	27,212	26.21%
Badagry^[24]	31,903	63.03%	10,956	21.64%	153	0.30%	6,024	11.9%	1,582	3.13%	50,618	23.55%
Epe^[25]	19,867	67.98%	3,497	11.97%	76	0.26%	5,221	17.87%	561	1.92%	29,222	19.04%
Eti-Osa^[26]^[27]	15,317	24.46%	42,388	67.69%	381	0.61%	3,369	5.38%	1,162	1.86%	62,617	17.81%
Ibeju-Lekki^[28]	14,685	51.88%	10,410	36.78%	104	0.37%	2,329	8.23%	776	2.74%	28,304	25.59%
Ifako-Ijaiye^[29]	14,685	51.88%	10,410	36.78%	104	0.37%	2,329	8.23%	776	2.74%	28,304	25.59%
Ikeja^[30]	21,276	38.64%	30,004	54.49%	337	0.61%	2,280	4.14%	1,165	2.12%	55,062	17.83%
Ikorodu^[31]^[32]	50,353	58.05%	28,951	33.37%	400	0.46%	4,508	5.20%	2,535	2.92%	86,747	24.87%
Kosofe^[33]^[34]	36,883	40.81%	46,554	51.51%	902	1.00%	4,058	4.49%	1,977	2.19%	90,374	19.90%
Lagos Island^[35]	27,760	81.92%	3,058	9.03%	79	0.23%	2,521	7.44%	468	1.38%	33,886	17.46%
Lagos Mainland^[36]^[37]	20,030	46.43%	18,698	43.34%	257	0.60%	3,005	6.96%	1,153	2.67%	43,143	18.09%
Mushin^[38]	41,907	58.85%	23,390	32.84%	410	0.58%	3,478	4.88%	2,030	2.85%	71,215	18.20%
Ojo^[39]^[40]	20,603	31.61%	38,859	59.63%	462	0.71%	3,701	5.68%	1,543	2.37%	65,168	17.07%
Oshodi-Isolo^[41]	27,181	32.60%	51,020	61.19%	413	0.50%	3,139	3.76%	1,623	3.76%	83,376	18.96%
Somolu^[42]^[43]	27,879	44.96%	28,936	46.67%	476	0.77%	3,449	5.56%	1,263	2.04%	62,003	20.29%
Surulere^[44]^[45]	39,002	48.15%	36,923	45.58%	442	0.55%	2,651	3.27%	1,991	2.46%	81,009	22.59%
Totals	572,606	45.04%	582,454	45.81%	8,442	0.66%	75,750	5.96%	32,199	2.53%	1,271,451	18.92%

Notes

Шаблон:Notelist

References

Шаблон:Reflist Шаблон:2023 Nigeria elections Шаблон:Elections in Lagos State

[New_Dates-1] Шаблон:Cite web

[Final_results-2] 2,0 ^2,1 Шаблон:Cite web

[3] Шаблон:Cite web

[TAR_Obi+Atiku_push_to_swing_state-4] 4,0 ^4,1 Шаблон:Cite web

[TAR_identity_politics-5] 5,0 ^5,1 Шаблон:Cite web

[TAR_voter_intimidation-6] 6,0 ^6,1 Шаблон:Cite web

[7] Шаблон:Cite web

[8] Шаблон:Cite web

[9] Шаблон:Cite web

[SBM_Dec_projection-10] 10,0 ^10,1 Шаблон:Cite web

[ThisDay_December_projections-11] 11,0 ^11,1 Шаблон:Cite web

[TAR_battleground_state-12] 12,0 ^12,1 ^12,2 Шаблон:Cite web

[13] Шаблон:Cite web

[14] Шаблон:Cite web

[15] Шаблон:Cite web

[Africa_Elects_state_ratings-16] Шаблон:Cite web

[Dataphyte_February_projections-17] Шаблон:Cite web

[18] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[19] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[20] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[21] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[22] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[23] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[24] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[25] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[26] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[27] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[28] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[29] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[30] Шаблон:Cite web

[31] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[32] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[33] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[34] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[35] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[36] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[37] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[38] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[39] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[40] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[41] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[42] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[43] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[44] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[45] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

[5]

[6]

[7]

[8]

[9]

[10]

[11]

[12]

[13]

[14]

[15]

[16]

[17]

[18]

[19]

[20]

[21]

[22]

[23]

[24]

[25]

[26]

[27]

[28]

[29]

[30]

[31]

[32]

[33]

[34]

[35]

[36]

[37]

[38]

[39]

[40]

[41]

[42]

[43]

[44]

[45]

Партнерские ресурсы
Криптовалюты	Обмен криптовалют - www.bestchange.ru Криптовалютная биржа CoinEx Криптовалютная биржа Binance HIVE OS - операционная система для майнинга e4pool - Мультивалютный пул для майнинга.
Магазины	AliExpress — глобальная виртуальная (в Интернете) торговая площадка, предоставляющая возможность покупать товары производителей из КНР; computeruniverse.net - Интернет-магазин компьютеров(Промо код 5 Евро на первую покупку:FWWC3ZKQ);
Хостинг	DigitalOcean - американский провайдер облачных инфраструктур, с главным офисом в Нью-Йорке и с центрами обработки данных по всему миру;
Разное	Викиум - Онлайн-тренажер для мозга Like Центр - Центр поддержки и развития предпринимательства. Gamersbay - лучший магазин по бустингу для World of Warcraft. Ноотропы OmniMind N°1 - Усиливает мозговую активность. Повышает мотивацию. Улучшает память. Санкт-Петербургская школа телевидения - это федеральная сеть образовательных центров, которая имеет филиалы в 37 городах России. Lingualeo.com — интерактивный онлайн-сервис для изучения и практики английского языка в увлекательной игровой форме. Junyschool (Джунискул) – международная школа программирования и дизайна для детей и подростков от 5 до 17 лет, где ученики осваивают компьютерную грамотность, развивают алгоритмическое и креативное мышление, изучают основы программирования и компьютерной графики, создают собственные проекты: игры, сайты, программы, приложения, анимации, 3D-модели, монтируют видео. Умназия - Интерактивные онлайн-курсы и тренажеры для развития мышления детей 6-13 лет SkillBox - это один из лидеров российского рынка онлайн-образования. Среди партнеров Skillbox ведущий разработчик сервисного дизайна AIC, медиа-компания Yoola, первое и самое крупное русскоязычное аналитическое агентство Tagline, онлайн-школа дизайна и иллюстрации Bang! Bang! Education, оператор PR-рынка PACO, студия рисования Draw&Go, агентство performance-маркетинга Ingate, scrum-студия Sibirix, имидж-лаборатория Персона. «Нетология» — это университет по подготовке и дополнительному обучению специалистов в области интернет-маркетинга, управления проектами и продуктами, дизайна, Data Science и разработки. В рамках Нетологии студенты получают ценные теоретические знания от лучших экспертов Рунета, выполняют практические задания на отработку полученных навыков, общаются с экспертами и единомышленниками. Познакомиться со всеми продуктами подробнее можно на сайте https://netology.ru, линейка курсов и профессий постоянно обновляется. StudyBay Brazil – это онлайн биржа для португалоговорящих студентов и авторов! Студент получает уникальную работу любого уровня сложности и больше свободного времени, в то время как у автора появляется дополнительный заработок и бесценный опыт. Автор24 — самая большая в России площадка по написанию учебных работ: контрольные и курсовые работы, дипломы, рефераты, решение задач, отчеты по практике, а так же любой другой вид работы. Сервис сотрудничает с более 70 000 авторов. Более 1 000 000 работ уже выполнено. StudyBay – это онлайн биржа для англоязычных студентов и авторов! Студент получает уникальную работу любого уровня сложности и больше свободного времени, в то время как у автора появляется дополнительный заработок и бесценный опыт.

Английская Википедия:2023 Nigerian presidential election in Lagos State

Содержание