Английская Википедия:2024 United States Senate election in Florida

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The 2024 United States Senate election in Florida will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida. Incumbent one-term Republican Senator Rick Scott was elected with 50.05% of the vote in 2018. He is running for re-election to a second term in office, despite earlier rumors of him running for president. Primary elections will take place on August 20, 2024.

Background

Long one of the core swing states, Florida has trended towards Republicans in recent years and is now considered to be a moderately red state at the federal level, with Donald Trump carrying Florida by about three and a half percentage points in the 2020 presidential election.

As a result of that trend, Republicans have seen much more success in the state in recent years. That was most prevalent when the Florida GOP saw landslide victories in the 2022 gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections. As of 2023, Republicans control both of Florida's U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, supermajorities in both houses of the Florida Legislature, and a large majority in its U.S. House congressional delegation.

Scott was first elected in 2018 by 0.1 points, defeating then-incumbent Bill Nelson. Given that the state has trended Republican in the past few years, this race is considered to be favoring Scott. However, some consider the race to have the potential to become more competitive, as both of Scott's governor races and his Senate race have all been decided by less than two percentage points. Pundits have questioned whether his opposition to the 2020 Infrastructure bill and to Mitch McConnell's leadership will make him vulnerable, as well as his Columbia Healthcare Corporation's billion-plus dollar settlement over Medicare fraud and his Medicare "rescue" proposals. On the other side of the ledger, pundits point to how Scott "has a reputation for his machine-like discipline," and "has never lost a race." A Politico report quotes Scott's former Chief of Staff, saying that Scott “wants to change Washington ... That’s what makes him so dangerous to the entrenched establishment politicians. He is not one of them — and he doesn’t want to be.”

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Keith Gross, assistant state attorney for Florida's 18th circuit court
• Patricia Krentcil, reality TV star known as "Tan Mom"
• Rick Scott, incumbent U.S. senator (2019–present)

Filed paperwork

• Angela Windhauser

Declined

• Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida (2019–present) and former U.S. Representative from Шаблон:Ushr (2013–2018) (running for president)
• Byron Donalds, U.S. representative from Шаблон:Ushr (2021–present) (running for re-election)
• Matt Gaetz, U.S. representative from Шаблон:Ushr (2017–present) (running for re-election)

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Keith Gross (R)	$1,011,117	$965,567	$45,550
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Rick Scott (R)	$14,059,045	$12,440,784	$3,078,864
Source: Federal Election Commission

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Matt Boswell, progressive activist
• Stanley Campbell, corporate executive, U.S. Army veteran, and brother of rapper Uncle Luke
• Rod Joseph, consultant and Purple Heart recipient
• Bernard Korn, realtor and perennial candidate
• Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, former U.S. representative from Шаблон:Ushr (2019–2021)
• Matthew Sanscrainte, hospitality management consultant

Filed paperwork

• Alan Grayson, former U.S. representative from Шаблон:Ushr (2009–2011, 2013–2017), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2022, candidate for Шаблон:Ushr in 2018, write-in candidate for Шаблон:Ushr in 2020, and candidate for Шаблон:Ushr in 2022
• Josue Larose, businessman and perennial candidate
• Donald Horan
• Everett Stern
• Chase Romagnano
• Brian Rush

Publicly expressed interest

• Jennifer Jenkins, Brevard County school board member (2020–present)

Potential

• Andrew Warren, suspended Hillsborough County State Attorney (2017–2022)

Withdrew

• Phil Ehr, nonprofit executive, U.S. Navy veteran, nominee for Шаблон:Ushr in 2020 and candidate in 2018 (running for U.S. House, endorsed Mucarsel-Powell)

Declined

• Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, U.S. representative from Шаблон:Ushr (2022–present) (running for re-election)
• Fentrice Driskell, Minority Leader of the Florida House of Representatives (2022–present) from the 67th district (2018–present)
• Anna Eskamani, state representative (2018–present) (running for re-election)
• Lois Frankel, U.S. representative from Шаблон:Ushr (2013–present) (running for re-election, endorsed Mucarsel-Powell)
• Shevrin Jones, state senator from the 35th district (2021–present) (endorsed Mucarsel-Powel)
• Frederica Wilson, U.S. representative from Шаблон:Ushr (2011–present)
• Debbie Wasserman Schultz, U.S. representative from Шаблон:Ushr (2004–present) (endorsed Mucarsel-Powell)

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Rod Joseph (D)	$9,934	$9,104	$830
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Alan Grayson (D)	$221,831	$169,536	$54,874
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Donald Horan (D)	$73,455	$73,455	$0
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)	$1,703,647	$625,816	$1,077,830
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Evertt Stern (D)	$325	$325	$0
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Brian Rush (D)	$60,805	$9,088	$51,716
Source: Federal Election Commission

Independents and third-party candidates

Candidates

Filed paperwork

• James Davis (Write-in), code enforcement officer and U.S. Marine Corps veteran
• Alix Christopher Toulme (Moderate Party)
• Randy Toler (Green Party) (also running for President)
• Salomon Hernandez Sr.

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 9, 2023
Inside Elections	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 9, 2023
Elections Daily	Шаблон:USRaceRating	May 4, 2023
CNalysis	Very Likely R	November 21, 2023

Polling

Rick Scott vs. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Rick Scott (R)	Шаблон:Nowrap Powell (D)	Undecided
Global Strategy GroupШаблон:Efn-ua	July 5–10, 2023	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	43%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|44%	13%

Шаблон:Hidden begin Rick Scott vs. Phil Ehr

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Rick Scott (R)	Phil Ehr (D)	Undecided
Change Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	June 27–29, 2023	1,298 (LV)	?	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45%	41%	14%Шаблон:Efn

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

• Keith Gross (R) for Senate
• Rod Joseph (D) for Senate
• Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) for Senate
• Rick Scott (R) for Senate