Английская Википедия:(367789) 2011 AG5

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Шаблон:Mp, provisional designation Шаблон:Mp, is a sub-kilometer asteroid, classified as near-Earth object and potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group. It has a diameter of about Шаблон:Convert. It was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 21 December 2012 and as such it now has a rating of 0 on the Torino Scale. It was recovered in December 2022 extending the observation arc from 4.8 years to 14 years. As of 2023, the distance between the orbits of Earth and Шаблон:Mp is Шаблон:Cvt

Earth Approaches on 3 February 2023 and 4 February 2040

Date	JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU)	uncertainty region (3-sigma)
2023-Feb-03 08:51 ± 00:01	Шаблон:Convert	±Шаблон:Val
2040-Feb-04 08:29 ± 00:06	Шаблон:Convert	±Шаблон:Val

Description

Файл:2011AG5.png

Orbital diagram of Шаблон:Mp (green) passing the Earth-Moon system in February 2040 (orbital solution from 2011)

Шаблон:Mp was discovered on 8 January 2011 by the Mount Lemmon Survey at an apparent magnitude of 19.6 using a Шаблон:Convert reflecting telescope. Pan-STARRS precovery images from 8 November 2010 extended the observation arc to 317 days. Observations by the Gemini Шаблон:Convert telescope at Mauna Kea recovered the asteroid on October 20, 21 and 27, 2012, and extended the observation arc to 719 days.

The October 2012 observations reduced the orbit uncertainties by more than a factor of 60, meaning that the Earth's position in February 2040 no longer falls within the range of possible future paths for the asteroid. On 4 February 2040 the asteroid will pass no closer than Шаблон:Convert (~2.8 LD) from Earth. Until 21 December 2012 it was listed on the Sentry Risk Table with a rating on the Torino Scale of Level 1. A Torino rating of 1 is a routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. It is estimated that an impact would produce the equivalent of 100 megatons of TNT, roughly twice that of the most powerful nuclear weapon ever detonated (Tsar Bomba). This is powerful enough to damage a region at least a hundred miles wide.

Older risks

Virtual clones of the asteroid that fit the mid-2012 uncertainty region in the known trajectory showed four potential impacts between 2040 and 2047. It had a 1 in 500 chance of impacting the Earth on 5 February 2040. In September 2013, there was an opportunity to make additional observations of Шаблон:Mp when it came within Шаблон:Convert of Earth. The 2013 observations allowed a further refinement to the known trajectory. The asteroid will also pass Шаблон:Convert from the Earth on 3 February 2023. The 2023 gravitational keyhole was 227 miles (365 kilometers) wide. With a Palermo Technical Scale of -1.00, the odds of impact by Шаблон:Mp were about 10 times less than the background hazard level of Earth impacts which is defined as the average risk posed by objects of the same size or larger over the years until the date of the potential impact.

External links

• UH Observations Result in "All Clear" for Potential Asteroid Impact (Institute for Astronomy at the University of Hawaii December 21, 2012)
• Phew! One Less Asteroid Impact to Worry About (Phil Plait Dec. 22, 2012)
• Table of next close approaches (Sormano Astronomical Observatory)
• MBPL - Minor Body Priority List (Sormano Astronomical Observatory)
• Шаблон:NeoDys
• Шаблон:ESA-SSA
• Шаблон:JPL small body