Английская Википедия:1964 United States presidential election in Virginia

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The 1964 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on November 3, 1964. All 50 states and the District of Columbia were part of the 1964 United States presidential election. Virginia voters chose 12 electors to the Electoral College, which selected the president and vice president of the United States.

For the previous six decades Virginia had almost completely disenfranchised its black and poor white populations through the use of a cumulative poll tax and literacy tests. So restricted was suffrage in this period that it has been calculated that a third of Virginia’s electorate during the first half of the twentieth century comprised state employees and officeholders.

This limited electorate allowed Virginian politics to be controlled for four decades by the Byrd Organization, as progressive “antiorganization” factions were rendered impotent by the inability of almost all their potential electorate to vote. Historical fusion with the “Readjuster” Democrats, defection of substantial proportions of the Northeast-aligned white electorate of the Shenandoah Valley and Southwest Virginia over free silver, and an early move towards a “lily white” Jim Crow party meant Republicans retained a small but permanent number of legislative seats and local offices in the western part of the state.

In 1928, the GOP did carry the state’s presidential electoral votes due to anti-Catholicism against Al Smith, but it was 1952 before any real changes occurred, as in-migration from the traditionally Republican Northeast meant that growing Washington, D.C., and Richmond suburbs would turn Republican not just in presidential elections but in Congressional ones as well, although the Republicans would not make significant gains in the state legislature. Opposition to the black civil rights legislation of Harry S. Truman meant that the Byrd Organization did not support Adlai Stevenson II or John F. Kennedy. Although the Organization viewed the national Republican party as no better on civil rights—it opposed the “massive resistance” orchestrated by Senator Byrd after Brown v. Board of Education—Byrd’s silence helped Eisenhower and Nixon win the state three consecutive times between 1952 and 1960.

For 1964, it was evident that Virginia’s electorate would be substantially increased by the Twenty-fourth Amendment, which banned the poll tax in federal elections and allowed major increases in voter registration during the preceding year. Efforts by civil rights groups to register black voters would help black voter registration double vis-à-vis 1960. At the same time, Republican nominee Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater voted against the Civil Rights Act and targeted the South as critical to winning the election against incumbent President Lyndon B. Johnson who signed that Act in August 1964, whilst most Byrd Democrats endorsed Johnson—this being the first time since 1936 the Organization had done so.

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Wall Street Journal	Шаблон:USRaceRating	September 29, 1964
Honolulu Advertiser	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 18, 1964
The Progress-Index	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 25, 1964
The Chicago Tribune	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 29, 1964
Fort Lauderdale News	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 1, 1964
The Charlotte Observer	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 1, 1964
Los Angeles Times	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 1, 1964

Results

1964 United States presidential election in Virginia
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Lyndon B. Johnson (inc.)	558,038	53.53%	12
	Republican	Barry Goldwater	481,334	46.17%	0
	Socialist Labor	Eric Hass	2,895	0.28%	0
	American Nazi	George Lincoln Rockwell (Write-in)	212	0.02%	0
Totals			1,042,479	100.00%	12

Analysis

Virginia would be won by Johnson with 53.54 percent of the vote, making this the first time since 1948 that Virginia backed a Democratic presidential candidate. Johnson won the national election in a landslide with 61.05 percent of the vote, which actually made Virginia Goldwater’s tenth-best state nationally, 15.22 percentage points more Republican than the nation at large. The state would not vote for another Democratic candidate until Barack Obama won the state in 2008. Johnson’s victory saw major changes in Virginia voting patterns compared to previous presidential elections. Despite the state shifting from Richard Nixon to Johnson, nine counties in the Southside region, which had been the stronghold of the Byrd Organization, would shift from Kennedy to Goldwater due to opposition to Johnson’s civil rights proposals by an almost exclusively white electorate. In Charlotte County, Johnson lost 29 points from John F. Kennedy’s 1960 vote percentage. At the same time, the Shenandoah Valley, where pietistic Protestant sects supportive of civil rights were influential, alongside the heavily unionized southwestern coalfields and Northeastern-aligned Northern Virginia, would see a strong swing towards Johnson, aided by growth in poor white voter registration from the Twenty-Fourth Amendment. Despite this, a majority of white Virginians undoubtedly backed Goldwater, and a doubling of a black presidential vote that almost unanimously supported Johnson was critical for his win. Goldwater became the first Republican to win Pittsylvania County since 1928, Mecklenburg County and Brunswick County since 1900, Appomattox County since 1888, Lunenburg County since 1884, Charlotte County since 1880, Sussex County since 1892, and Halifax County since 1876.

Шаблон:As of, this remains the last occasion when Amherst County, Bland County, Clarke County, Culpeper County, Fauquier County, Frederick County, Rockingham County, Washington County and York County have voted for a Democratic presidential candidate. It is also the only time since 1948 Waynesboro City has voted for a Democrat for president, while Prince William County and Winchester City would not vote Democratic again until 2008. Fairfax County, Virginia's most populous county, would not vote Democratic again until 2004, having previously voted Democratic in 1940. The independent city of Virginia Beach would not vote Democratic again until 2020. This also remains the last time that Virginia and neighboring West Virginia would simultaneously vote Democratic in a presidential election.