Английская Википедия:1979 XB
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use dmy dates Шаблон:Infobox planet
1979 XB is a lost asteroid[1] with a short observation arc of 3.9 days that cannot be recovered with targeted observations and awaits serendipitous survey observations. It is classified as a near-Earth object and potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group[2] and is estimated to be Шаблон:Convert in diameter.[3] The unnumbered minor planet has a poorly constrained orbit and has not been observed in 40 years. It has been listed on the Sentry Risk Table since the list started in 2002. With a cumulative Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale of −2.72, the poorly known orbit and assumed size place 1979 XB third on an unconstrained listing of the Sentry Risk Table.[4]
1979 XB was first observed on 11 December 1979 by astronomers at the Siding Spring Observatory, Australia, when the asteroid was estimated to be Шаблон:Convert from Earth and had a solar elongation of 127°. The object has never been confirmed by a second observatory.[5] The uncertainty region for this asteroid is now hundreds of millions of kilometers long.
Orbit-fit
With a short 4-day observation arc, the trajectory is poorly constrained and the uncertainties fit numerous different orbits. The perihelion point (closest approach to the Sun) is better known than the aphelion point (furthest distance from the Sun). Due to the uncertainty, the orbital period ranges from 2.4 to 4.2 years.[2]
| Source | Aphelion | Orbital period | Earth MOID |
|---|---|---|---|
| MPC[5] | Шаблон:Convert | Шаблон:Convert | Шаблон:Convert |
| NEODyS[6] | Шаблон:Convert | Шаблон:Convert | Шаблон:Convert |
2024
Around mid-December 2024 the asteroid has about a 0.05% chance of making an Earth approach within 0.1 AU.[7] But it will not pass any closer than Шаблон:Convert.[7] The nominal JPL Horizons December 2024 Earth distance is Шаблон:Convert with an uncertainty of more than a billion km.[8]
2056 virtual impactor
JPL Horizons suggests that the closest approach the asteroid will make to Earth in 2056 is a distant Шаблон:Convert on 4 August 2056.[8] NEODyS expects the closest Earth approach to be an even more distant Шаблон:Convert on 2 October 2056.[9]
With a short 4-day observation arc, the Sentry Risk Table shows an estimated 1 in 5 million chance of the asteroid impacting Earth on 12 December 2056.[3] The nominal JPL Horizons 12 December 2056 Earth distance is Шаблон:Convert with a 3-sigma uncertainty of ±13 billion km.[10] NEODyS lists the nominal 12 December 2056 Earth distance as Шаблон:Convert.[9]
| Date | Impact probability (1 in) |
JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
NEODyS nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
uncertainty region |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2056-12-12 | 5 million | Шаблон:Convert[10] | Шаблон:Convert[9] | ±13 billion km[10] |
| 2113-12-14 | 2 million | Шаблон:Convert | Шаблон:Convert[11] | ±5 billion km |
See also
References
External links
Шаблон:Small Solar System bodies Шаблон:Authority control
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- Английская Википедия
- Apollo asteroids
- Minor planet object articles (unnumbered)
- Discoveries by SSS
- Lost minor planets
- Potentially hazardous asteroids
- Potential impact events caused by near-Earth objects
- Astronomical objects discovered in 1979
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