Английская Википедия:1991 BA
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use dmy dates Шаблон:Infobox planet
1991 BA is a sub-kilometer asteroid, classified as near-Earth object of the Apollo group that was first observed by Spacewatch on 18 January 1991, and passed within 160,000 km (100,000 mi) of Earth.[1][2] This is a little less than half the distance to the Moon. With a 5-hour observation arc the asteroid has a poorly constrained orbit and is considered lost. It could be a member of the Beta Taurids.[3]
Description
1991 BA is approximately 5 to 10 meters (15 to 30 ft) in diameter and is listed on the Sentry Risk Table.[4] It follows a highly eccentric (0.68), low-inclination (2.0°) orbit of 3.3 years duration, ranging between 0.71 and 3.7 AU from the Sun. 1991 BA was, at the time of its discovery, the smallest and closest confirmed asteroid outside of Earth's atmosphere.[5] 1991 BA is too faint to be observed except during close approaches to Earth and is considered lost.
Possible impact
The asteroid has a very short 5-hour observation arc that makes future predictions of its position unreliable. Virtual clones of the asteroid that fit the uncertainty region in the known trajectory use to show a 1 in 290,000 chance that the asteroid could impact Earth on 2023 January 18.[4] It is estimated that an impact would produce an upper atmosphere air burst equivalent to 16 kt TNT,[4] roughly equal to Nagasaki's Fat Man. The asteroid would appear as a bright fireball and fragment in the air burst into smaller pieces that would hit the ground at terminal velocity producing a meteorite strewn field. Impacts of objects this size are estimated to occur approximately once a year.[6] Asteroid Шаблон:Mpl was an object of similar size that was discovered less than a day before its impact on Earth on October 7, 2008 and produced a fireball and meteorite strewn field in the Sudan. The 18 January 2023 virtual impactor did not occur.
| Date | Impact probability (1 in) |
JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
NEODyS nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
MPC[7] nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
Find_Orb nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
uncertainty region (3-sigma) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-18 | Шаблон:Val | Шаблон:Convert[8] | Шаблон:Convert[9] | Шаблон:Convert | Шаблон:Convert[10] | Шаблон:Nowrap[8] |
There is a 1 in a million chance of impacting Earth on 19 January 2114.[4]
References
External links
- IAUC 5172: 1991 BA; 4U 0115+63; 1990c – (Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams 1991 January 21)
- Шаблон:NeoDys
- Шаблон:ESA-SSA
- Шаблон:JPL small body
Шаблон:Small Solar System bodies Шаблон:Authority control
- ↑ Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
<ref>; для сносокjpl-closeне указан текст - ↑ Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
<ref>; для сносокMPC-1991BAне указан текст - ↑ Peter Jenniskens Meteor Showers and their Parent Comets pg 463 fig 25.7
- ↑ 4,0 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
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- ↑ Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
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<ref>; для сносокHorizons2023не указан текст - ↑ Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
<ref>; для сносокNEODyS2023не указан текст - ↑ Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
<ref>; для сносокFind_Orb2023не указан текст
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- Near-Earth objects in 1991
- Lost minor planets
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- Astronomical objects discovered in 1991
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