Английская Википедия:2006 United States Senate election in Montana

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsMT The 2006 United States Senate election in Montana was held November 7, 2006. The filing deadline was March 23; the primary was held June 6. Incumbent Republican Senator Conrad Burns ran for re-election to a fourth term, but lost to Democrat Jon Tester by a margin of 0.87%, or 3,562 votes out of 406,505 cast. This made the election the second-closest race of the 2006 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in Virginia.

Background

Burns was first elected as a United States Senator from Montana in 1988, when he defeated Democratic incumbent John Melcher in a close race, 52% to 48%. Burns was re-elected 62.4% to 37.6%, over Jack Mudd in the Republican Revolution year of 1994. In 2000, Burns faced the well-financed Brian Schweitzer whom he beat 50.6% to 47.2%.

In 2000, George W. Bush carried Montana 58% to 33% in the race for president, but Burns won by 3.4%. Since the direct election of Senators began in 1913, Burns is only the second Republican Montana has elected to the U.S. Senate. Also, for thirty-two straight years, 1952 to 1984, Montana elected only Democratic Senators.

Burns' involvement in the Jack Abramoff scandal made him vulnerable.Шаблон:Citation needed A SurveyUSA poll released in March 2006 found that 38% of Montanans approved of him, while 52% disapproved of him.[1] Polls against leading Democratic candidates had him below his challengers.Шаблон:Citation needed

Democratic primary

Candidates

Campaign

On May 31, 2006, Richards, citing the closeness of the race, and his own position (third) in the polls, withdrew from the race, and threw his support to Tester.[2] Morrison started off strong in the race for the Democratic nomination for Senator, collecting $1.05 million as of the start of 2006, including $409,241 in the last three months of 2005.[3] but Morrison's advantages in fundraising and name identification did not translate into a lead in the polls.[4] Later, the race was called a "deadlock,"[5] but Tester continued to gather momentum.

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Republican primary

Candidates

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

General election

Candidates

Campaign

The race was expected to be close, due to Burns' narrow margin of victory in 2000, when he significantly underperformed Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush, and political scandal that he had been involved in. Republican incumbents everywhere were facing more challenging races in 2006 due to the waning popularity of the Republican-controlled Congress and the administration of President George W. Bush. In July 2006, the Rasmussen report viewed Burns as the "second most vulnerable Senator seeking re-election this year", after Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum.[6]

Senator Conrad Burns of Montana faced a strong challenge from Brian Schweitzer in 2000, being re-elected by 3.4% in a state that went for Bush twice by margins of over 20%Шаблон:Citation needed. This, combined with the increasing strength of the state Democratic partyШаблон:Citation needed and accusations of ethical issues related to the Jack Abramoff scandalШаблон:Citation needed, made this a highly competitive race.

On July 27, Burns was forced to apologize after he confronted out of state firefighters who were preparing to leave Montana after helping contain a summer forest fire and directly questioned their competence and skill, remarks for which he was strongly criticized.[7]

On August 31, in a letter faxed to the office of Montana governor Brian Schweitzer, Burns urged the governor, a Democrat, to declare a fire state of emergency and activate the Montana Army National Guard for firefighting. Schweitzer had already declared such a state of emergency on July 11 — thus, activating the Montana Army National Guard. He issued a second declaration on August 11. A Burns spokesman said the senator was "pretty sure" Schweitzer had already issued such a disaster declaration, but just wanted to make sure. "The genesis of the letter was just to make sure that all the bases were covered," Pendleton said. "This is not a political football. It’s just a cover-the-bases letter and certainly casts no aspersions on the governor."[8]

Debates

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[9] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 6, 2006
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 6, 2006
Rothenberg Political Report[11] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 6, 2006
Real Clear Politics[12] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 6, 2006

Polling

Source Date Jon
Tester (D) 		Conrad
Burns (R) 		Stan
Jones (L)
Mason Dixon May 2005 26% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50%
Rasmussen September 8, 2005 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 51%
Mason Dixon December 24, 2005 35% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 49%
Rasmussen January 11, 2006 45% 45%
Rasmussen February 13, 2006 46% 46%
Rasmussen March 20, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% 43%
Rasmussen April 15, 2006 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47%
Ayres McHenry & Associates (R) May 2, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% 42%
Rasmussen May 16, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% 44%
Mason Dixon May 28, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 45% 42%
Lake Research (D) June 20–26, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 43% 42%
Rasmussen July 11, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 50% 43%
Rasmussen August 10, 2006 47% 47%
Lake Research (D) August 10, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 44% 37%
Gallup September 5, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% 45%
Rasmussen September 13, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 52% 43%
Rasmussen September 20, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 50% 43%
Mason-DixonШаблон:Dead link October 1, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 47% 40% 3%
Reuters/Zogby October 5, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% 42%
Rasmussen October 11, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 49% 42%
Rasmussen October 18, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% 46%
Montana State University-Billings October 19, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% 35%
Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC October 24, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% 43%
Harstad Strategic (D) October 25, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% 42%
Rasmussen October 29, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 51% 47%
Reuters/Zogby October 31, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 47% 46% 2%
Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy November 3, 2006 47% 47% 1%
Rasmussen November 3, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 50% 46%
USA Today/Gallup November 4, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 50% 41%
Rasmussen November 4, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 50% 48%
OnPoint Polling and Research November 6, 2006 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 49% 44%

Results

Tester narrowly defeated Burns on election day by just over 3,000 votes. Libertarian candidate Jones received over 10,000 votes, greater than Tester's margin of victory. Due to errors with polling machines, the Montana count was delayed well into Wednesday, November 8. The race was too close to call throughout the night and many pundits predicted the need for a recount. After a very close election, on November 9, incumbent Conrad Burns conceded defeat.[13]

Just before 11:00 AM (MST) on November 8, Jon Tester was declared Senator-elect for Montana in USA Today.[14] At 2:27 PM EST on November 8, CNN projected that Jon Tester would win the race.[15]

Under Montana law, if the margin of defeat is more than 0.25% but less than 0.5%, the losing candidate can request a recount if they pay for it themselves.[16] However, this election did not qualify for a recount because the margin was larger than 0.5%. Burns conceded the race on November 9 and congratulated Tester on his victory.[17]

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box gain with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

County results

Source[18]

Jon Tester
Democratic 		Conrad Burns
Republican 		Stan Jones
Libertarian 		Margin Total
County Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes
Beaverhead 1,376 34.14% 2,552 63.31% 103 2.56% 1,176 29.17% 4,031
Big Horn 2,999 64.72% 1,551 33.47% 84 1.81% 1,448 31.25% 4,634
Blaine 1,390 51.90% 1,226 45.78% 62 2.32% 164 6.12% 2,678
Broadwater 825 34.93% 1,451 61.43% 86 3.64% 626 26.50% 2,362
Carbon 2,247 45.92% 2,510 51.30% 136 2.78% 263 5.38% 4,893
Carter 98 14.71% 554 83.18% 14 2.10% 456 68.47% 666
Cascade 14,947 49.37% 14,789 48.85% 540 1.78% 158 0.52% 30,276
Chouteau 1,491 51.86% 1,345 46.78% 39 1.36% 146 5.08% 2,875
Custer 1,991 42.36% 2,581 54.91% 128 2.72% 590 12.55% 4,700
Daniels 424 40.77% 594 57.12% 22 2.12% 170 16.35% 1,040
Dawson 1,595 40.31% 2,247 56.79% 115 2.91% 652 16.48% 3,957
Deer Lodge 3,211 72.63% 1,096 24.79% 114 2.58% 2,115 47.84% 4,421
Fallon 347 26.31% 951 72.10% 21 1.59% 604 45.79% 1,319
Fergus 1,985 35.25% 3,474 61.68% 173 3.07% 1,489 26.44% 5,632
Flathead 13,276 40.24% 18,511 56.10% 1,209 3.66% 5,235 15.87% 32,996
Gallatin 16,511 48.67% 16,693 49.21% 720 2.12% 182 0.54% 33,924
Garfield 98 16.58% 483 81.73% 10 1.69% 385 65.14% 591
Glacier 2,748 62.37% 1,564 35.50% 94 2.13% 1,184 26.87% 4,406
Golden Valley 181 37.24% 298 61.32% 7 1.44% 117 24.07% 486
Granite 594 39.13% 862 56.79% 62 4.08% 268 17.65% 1,518
Hill 3,411 58.33% 2,320 39.67% 117 2.00% 1,091 18.66% 5,848
Jefferson 2,415 45.76% 2,715 51.44% 148 2.80% 300 5.68% 5,278
Judith Basin 377 31.63% 785 65.86% 30 2.52% 408 34.23% 1,192
Lake 5,618 48.81% 5,480 47.61% 413 3.59% 138 1.20% 11,511
Lewis and Clark 14,921 54.74% 11,734 43.05% 604 2.22% 3,187 11.69% 27,259
Liberty 401 39.66% 596 58.95% 14 1.38% 195 19.29% 1,011
Lincoln 2,860 39.17% 4,105 56.23% 336 4.60% 1,245 17.05% 7,301
Madison 1,224 33.68% 2,311 63.59% 99 2.72% 1,087 29.91% 3,634
McCone 394 37.88% 624 60.00% 22 2.12% 230 22.12% 1,040
Meagher 272 32.19% 552 65.33% 21 2.49% 280 33.14% 845
Mineral 796 48.98% 779 47.94% 50 3.08% 17 1.05% 1,625
Missoula 29,327 63.92% 15,610 34.02% 942 2.05% 13,717 29.90% 45,879
Musselshell 670 31.16% 1,382 64.28% 98 4.56% 712 33.12% 2,150
Park 3,731 50.60% 3,441 46.67% 201 2.73% 290 3.93% 7,373
Petroleum 74 29.43% 180 67.92% 11 4.15% 106 40.00% 265
Phillips 559 28.18% 1,366 68.85% 59 2.97% 807 40.68% 1,984
Pondera 1,080 41.08% 1,494 56.83% 55 2.09% 414 15.75% 2,629
Powder River 248 24.55% 734 72.67% 28 2.77% 486 48.12% 1,010
Powell 1,052 40.48% 1,454 55.94% 93 3.58% 402 15.47% 2,599
Prairie 213 31.09% 455 66.42% 17 2.48% 242 35.33% 685
Ravalli 7,906 42.41% 10,273 55.11% 462 2.48% 2,367 12.70% 18,641
Richland 1,354 35.22% 2,381 61.94% 109 2.84% 1,027 26.72% 3,844
Roosevelt 2,203 57.47% 1,573 41.04% 57 1.49% 630 16.44% 3,833
Rosebud 1,895 55.31% 1,425 32.15% 106 3.09% 470 13.72% 3,426
Sanders 2,165 43.53% 2,575 51.77% 234 4.70% 410 8.24% 4,974
Sheridan 988 51.43% 887 46.17% 46 2.39% 101 5.26% 1,921
Silver Bow 9,500 66.69% 4,394 30.85% 351 2.46% 5,106 35.84% 14,245
Stillwater 1,556 39.28% 2,262 57.11% 143 3.61% 706 17.82% 3,961
Sweet Grass 563 32.39% 1,115 64.15% 60 3.45% 552 31.76% 1,738
Teton 1,252 40.80% 1,755 57.18% 62 2.02% 503 16.39% 3,069
Toole 759 37.52% 1,195 59.07% 69 3.41% 436 21.55% 2,023
Treasure 161 36.93% 260 59.63% 15 3.44% 99 22.71% 436
Valley 1,550 43.90% 1,893 53.61% 88 2.49% 343 9,71% 3,531
Wheatland 327 38.47% 498 58.59% 25 2.94% 171 20.12% 850
Wibaux 165 33.81% 317 64.96% 6 1.23% 152 31.15% 488
Yellowstone 27,981 47.77% 29,203 49.85% 1,394 2.38% 1,222 2.09% 58,578

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

Шаблон:United States elections, 2006

Партнерские ресурсы
Криптовалюты
Магазины
Хостинг
Разное

  1. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  2. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  3. ↑ Шаблон:Cite webШаблон:Dead link
  4. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  5. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  6. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  7. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  8. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  9. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  10. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  11. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  12. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  13. ↑ Шаблон:Cite webШаблон:Dead linkШаблон:Cbignore
  14. ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
  15. ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
  16. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  17. ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
  18. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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