Английская Википедия:2007 FT3
Шаблон:Use dmy dates Шаблон:Infobox planet
Шаблон:Mp (also written 2007 FT3) is a lost asteroid[1] with a short observation arc of 1.2 days that cannot be recovered with targeted observations and awaits serendipitous survey observations. It has a poorly constrained orbit and has not been seen since 2007. It was first observed on 20 March 2007 when the asteroid was estimated to be Шаблон:Convert from Earth and had a solar elongation of 107 degrees. Шаблон:Mp is the fourth largest asteroid with better than a 1-in-2 million cumulative chance of impacting Earth after (29075) 1950 DA, 1979 XB, and 101955 Bennu. With a cumulative Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale of -2.93, the poorly known orbit and assumed size place Шаблон:Mp fifth on an unconstrained listing of the Sentry Risk Table.[2] The asteroid is not expected to be near the Earth in October 2024.
2013 virtual impactor
The 2 October 2013 virtual impactor did not occur.[3] The uncertainty region of ± 330 million kilometers wrapped around a large portion of the asteroid's orbit so that the asteroid could have been numerous different distances from the Earth.
2019 virtual impactor
The 3 October 2019 virtual impactor did not occur. The poorly constrained nominal orbit suggested that the closest approach the asteroid would make to Earth in 2019 was in late March at a distance of Шаблон:Convert.[4] But the line of variation (LOV) for this asteroid was hundreds of millions of kilometers long.
There was an estimated 1 in 11 million chance of the asteroid impacting Earth on 3 October 2019.[3] The nominal JPL Horizons 3 October 2019 Earth distance was Шаблон:Convert with a 3-sigma uncertainty of Шаблон:Nowrap.[5] NEODyS listed the nominal 3 October 2019 Earth distance as Шаблон:Convert.[4]
2024 virtual impactor
Since the asteroid has a short observation arc and the uncertainty in the orbit of the asteroid intersects Earth's orbit, simulations can not rule-out the asteroid and Earth being at the same point in space on 3 October 2024. The nominal orbit suggests that closest approach the asteroid will make to Earth in 2024 will not be until the end of December when it may be ~1 AU from Earth (the same distance the Sun is from Earth).[6] But the line of variation (LOV) for this asteroid is hundreds of millions of kilometers long.[7]
With a short 1.2 day observation arc, the Sentry Risk Table shows an estimated 1 in 11 million chance of the asteroid impacting Earth on 2 October 2024,[3] which is 1,900 times lower than the background threat.Шаблон:Efn The nominal JPL Horizons 2 October 2024 Earth distance is Шаблон:Convert with a 3-sigma uncertainty of Шаблон:Nowrap.[7] NEODyS lists the nominal 2 October 2024 Earth distance as Шаблон:Convert.[6]
| Date | Impact probability (1 in) |
JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
NEODyS nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
MPC[8] nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
Find_Orb nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
uncertainty[5] region |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-10-02 | 1.9 billion | Шаблон:Convert | Шаблон:Convert | Шаблон:Convert | Шаблон:Convert | Шаблон:Nowrap |
| 2019-10-03 | 11 million | Шаблон:Convert | Шаблон:Convert[4] | Шаблон:Convert | Шаблон:Convert | Шаблон:Nowrap |
| 2024-10-03 | 11 million | Шаблон:Convert[7] | Шаблон:Convert[6] | Шаблон:Convert[8] | Шаблон:Convert[9] | Шаблон:Nowrap |
See also
Notes
References
External links
Шаблон:Small Solar System bodies Шаблон:Authority control
- ↑ Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
<ref>; для сносокlostне указан текст - ↑ Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
<ref>; для сносокrisk-tableне указан текст - ↑ 3,0 3,1 3,2 3,3 Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
<ref>; для сносокsentryне указан текст - ↑ 4,0 4,1 4,2 Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
<ref>; для сносокNEODyS2019не указан текст - ↑ 5,0 5,1 Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
<ref>; для сносокHorizonsне указан текст - ↑ 6,0 6,1 6,2 Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
<ref>; для сносокNEODyS2024не указан текст - ↑ 7,0 7,1 7,2 Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
<ref>; для сносокHorizons2024не указан текст - ↑ 8,0 8,1 Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
<ref>; для сносокMPC-ephне указан текст - ↑ Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
<ref>; для сносокFind_Orb2024не указан текст
- Страницы с игнорируемыми отображаемыми названиями
- Английская Википедия
- Lost minor planets
- Minor planet object articles (unnumbered)
- Potentially hazardous asteroids
- Discoveries by MLS
- Potential impact events caused by near-Earth objects
- Astronomical objects discovered in 2007
- Near-Earth objects in 2024
- Страницы, где используется шаблон "Навигационная таблица/Телепорт"
- Страницы с телепортом
- Википедия
- Статья из Википедии
- Статья из Английской Википедии
- Страницы с ошибками в примечаниях
