Английская Википедия:2008 United States Senate election in North Carolina

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsNC The 2008 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on Tuesday, November 4, 2008. The Senate election coincided with the presidential, U.S. House elections, gubernatorial, Council of State, and statewide judicial elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Elizabeth Dole ran for re-election to a second term, but was defeated by Kay Hagan.[1]

The November general election was the first time in North Carolina history, and only the eighth time in U.S. history, that the two major-party candidates for a U.S. Senate seat were both women. In addition, Hagan became the only Democrat to win this seat since 1966, and the first woman to defeat an incumbent woman in a U.S. Senate election.

Democratic primary

Candidates

  • Kay Hagan, State Senator
  • Duskin Lassiter, trucker
  • Jim Neal, businessman
  • Howard Staley, doctor
  • Marcus Williams, attorney

Campaign

Hagan, initially an unknown politician, decided to challenge incumbent Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole.[2]

National Democrats attempted to recruit incumbent Governor Mike Easley to make the race. A late October 2007 Rasmussen Report poll showed Easley defeating Dole 50% to 42%.[3][4] Easley declined to run, as did Congressman Brad Miller, who expressed interest in early 2007.[5][6] Former Governor Jim Hunt also declined to compete against Dole.[7][8]

Neal earned the endorsement of the Black Political Caucus of Charlotte-Mecklenburg. He also was endorsed by Blue America PAC, eQualityGiving, the Independent Weekly and YES ! Weekly.[9]

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Republican primary

Candidates

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Шаблон:See also

Файл:Doleattackad.JPG
Dole's attack ad, "Godless".

Dole was initially a heavy favorite for reelection, especially after several potential top-tier challengers such as Congressman Brad Miller, Governor Mike Easley and former Governor Jim Hunt all declined to compete against Dole.[7][8] Ultimately, Kay Hagan, a state senator from Greensboro, won the Democratic primary election and became Dole's general election opponent. Reports late in the campaign suggested that Dole, once considered a safe bet for reelection, suffered from Barack Obama's decision to aggressively contest North Carolina in the presidential election.[10]

Hagan was initially given little chance against Dole, but Hagan was helped by independent 527 groups lobbying/advertising against incumbent Dole.[8] The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee expended more money in North Carolina than in any other state during the 2008 election season.[8] However, Dole benefited from more out-of-state funding overall than Hagan.[11] The efforts appeared to be effective, as Hagan began to take the lead in several polls beginning in September.

In late October, Dole released a controversial television ad attacking Hagan for reportedly taking donations from individuals involved in the Godless Americans PAC, a group which advocates for the rights of people who do not believe in God. The ad also included a female voice saying, "There is no God."[12][13] The Dole campaign said the ad correctly shows who Hagan will associate with in order to raise campaign funds, and on November 1, Bob Dole also defended it, asserting that "it never questions her faith," and that "the issue is why she was there. There's no question about her faith. I think it's [the ad's] fair game."[14]

Hagan, who is a member of the Presbyterian Church and a former Sunday school teacher,[13] condemned the ad as "fabricated and pathetic," and, according to Hagan's campaign website, a cease-and-desist letter was "hand-delivered to Dole's Raleigh office, faxed to her Salisbury office and sent to her home at the Watergate in Washington, DC."[15] Hagan also filed a lawsuit in Wake County Superior Court accusing Dole of defamation and libel.[16][17]

The ad has met exceptionally strong criticism from the public as well as many local and several national media outlets. CNN's Campbell Brown said about the ad: "[A]mid all the attack ads on the airwaves competing to out-ugly one another, we think we've found a winner."[18] The ad has been described as "ridiculously outrageous,"[19] "indecent,"[20] a "gross misrepresentation,"[21] "worse than dishonest"[22] and "beyond the bounds of acceptable political disagreement,"[22] among other harsh criticism.[23] Another ad issued by the Dole campaign in mid-October 2008 was described by The Fayetteville Observer as "[setting] the low mark in negative political campaigning."[24] The media reported, that within 48 hours of the first ad Hagan received over 3,600 contributions, including major donors as well as individual support from a range of atheists, agnostics and followers of other religious beliefs who felt they were being attacked by Dole.[25] Following the second ad Hagan's lead doubled according to some polls.[25]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[26] Шаблон:USRaceRating October 23, 2008
CQ Politics[27] Шаблон:USRaceRating October 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report[28] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics[29] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 2, 2008

Polling

Файл:Hagen at Obama rally.jpg
Hagan on the campaign trail

Polls released during the week of October 28, 2008 showed Dole and Hagan within the statistical margin of error (3% apart).[2]

Poll source Dates administered Kay
Hagan (D) 		Elizabeth
Dole (R)
Public Policy Polling February 18, 2008 33% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50%
Rasmussen Reports April 10, 2008 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 52%
Research 2000/Daily Kos April 28–30, 2008 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48%
Rasmussen Reports May 8, 2008 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% 47%
Public Policy Polling May 8–9, 2008 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48%
Civitas Institute/
Tel Opinion Research 		May 14–17, 2008 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 45%
Survey USA May 17–19, 2008 46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50%
Public Policy Polling May 28–29, 2008 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47%
Anzalone Liszt Research June 4, 2008 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48%
Rasmussen Reports June 10, 2008 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 53%
Civitas Institute/
Tel Opinion Research 		June 11–13, 2008 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48%
The Tarrance Group July 9, 2008 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 51%
Survey USA July 14, 2008 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 54%
Rasmussen Reports July 15, 2008 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 54%
Public Policy Polling July 23–27, 2008 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 49%
Research 2000/Daily Kos July 28–30, 2008 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50%
Insider Advantage August 19, 2008 40% 40%
Public Policy Polling August 23, 2008 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 42% 39%
Democracy Corps August 26, 2008 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 50% 45%
Survey USA September 8, 2008 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48%
Daily Kos/Research 2000 September 10, 2008 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48%
Rasmussen Reports September 18, 2008 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 51% 45%
Public Policy Polling September 19, 2008 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% 41%
Rasmussen Reports September 23, 2008 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% 45%
Public Policy Polling September 28–29, 2008 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% 38%
Survey USA October 5–6, 2008 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 44%
Rasmussen Reports October 8, 2008 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 49% 44%
Survey USA October 20, 2008 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% 45%
Rasmussen Reports October 29, 2008 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 52% 46%
Public Policy Polling Oct 31-Nov 2, 2008 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 51% 44%
Survey USA November 2, 2008 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 50% 43%

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box gain with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Analysis

In the 2008 election, Dole lost by a wider-than-expected margin, taking only 44 percent of the vote to Hagan's 53 percent – the widest margin for a Senate race in North Carolina in 30 years, and the largest margin of defeat for an incumbent Senator in the 2008 cycle. It has been speculated that the outcry over the "Godless" ads contributed to Dole's loss.[30] Hagan trounced Dole in the state's five largest counties – Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Forsyth and Durham. Hagan also dominated most of the eastern portion of the state, which had been the backbone of Helms' past Senate victories. While Dole dominated the Charlotte suburbs and most of the heavily Republican Foothills region, it was not enough to save her seat.

See also

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Шаблон:Wikinews

Шаблон:North Carolina elections Шаблон:2008 United States elections

Партнерские ресурсы
Криптовалюты
Магазины
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Разное

  1. ↑ Libertarian Party of NC press release: Libertarians File List of 2008 Candidates Шаблон:Webarchive
  2. ↑ 2,0 2,1 Шаблон:Cite newsШаблон:Dead link
  3. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  4. ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
  5. ↑ newsobserver.com | Miller looking at Senate race Шаблон:Webarchive
  6. ↑ Draft dodger? | newsobserver.com projects Шаблон:Webarchive
  7. ↑ 7,0 7,1 2008 Election Challenge.
  8. ↑ 8,0 8,1 8,2 8,3 Шаблон:Cite magazine
  9. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  10. ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
  11. ↑ "Elizabeth Dole: Campaign Finance/Money - Summary." OpenSecrets http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary.php?type=C&cid=N00008071&newMem=N&cycle=
  12. ↑ Kraushaar, Josh. Hagan's campaign says the ad sought to put inflammatory words in their candidate's mouth; The Dole campaign says the ad correctly shows who Hagan will associate with in order to raise campaign funds.Dole still keeping the faith. The Politico. October 29, 2008.
  13. ↑ 13,0 13,1 Brown, Campbell. Commentary: Mudslinging to get elected. CNN.com. October 29, 2008.
  14. ↑ Bob Dole Defends "Godless" TV Ad. Small Business VoIP. November 1, 2008.
  15. ↑ KayHagan.com. Kay on Dole Ad Attacking Her Christian Faith: A Fabricated, Pathetic Ad Шаблон:Webarchive. October 30, 2008.
  16. ↑ Dole Sued for 'Godless' Attack Ad Шаблон:Webarchive, ABC News. October 30, 2008.
  17. ↑ Dole challenger irate over suggestion she is "godless". CNN.com. October 30, 2008.
  18. ↑ Brown, Campbell. Commentary: Mudslinging to get elected. CNN.com. October 29, 2008.
  19. ↑ Frank, James. Dole 'Godless' ad shows progress, sort of Шаблон:Webarchive. Chicago Tribune. October 31, 2008.
  20. ↑ Dole's desperate turn to Big Lie advertising Шаблон:Webarchive. The Charlotte Observer. October 30, 2008.
  21. ↑ As election nears, negative ads a distractionШаблон:Dead link. Asheville Citizen-Times. October 30, 2008.
  22. ↑ 22,0 22,1 Editorial: Dole's attack on Hagan's faith drives heated campaign lower. Greensboro News & Record. October 30, 2008.
  23. ↑ ELIZABETH DOLE ATTACKS KAY HAGAN'S CHRISTIAN FAITH Шаблон:Webarchive. AmericanChronicle.com. November 2, 2008.
  24. ↑ Dole's new ads set the low mark in negative political campaigning. The Fayetteville Observer. October 15, 2008.
  25. ↑ 25,0 25,1 Шаблон:Cite newsШаблон:Dead link
  26. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  27. ↑ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Шаблон:Webarchive CQ Politics
  28. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  29. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  30. ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
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