Английская Википедия:2008 Washington gubernatorial election

Содержание

Текст

Текст

Текст

Текст

Текст

Текст

Текст

Текст

Текст

Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:For Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Washington (state) sidebar The 2008 gubernatorial election in Washington was held on November 4, 2008. Republican Dino Rossi and incumbent Democratic Governor Christine Gregoire emerged from the August 19 primary. This made the 2008 election a rematch between the candidates from the 2004 election, the closest gubernatorial election in the state's history. In contrast to the recounts and months of legal challenges in their previous contest, Gregoire was the clear winner on November 5, earning 53 percent of the vote. With a margin of 6.45%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2008 gubernatorial election cycle, behind only the election in North Carolina.

Timeline

Date	Year	Event	Reference	Notes
June 6	2008	Filing deadline
August 19	2008	State primary		Same date as general primaries for other offices
November 4	2008	General election		Same date as presidential election and other offices
November 26	2008	General election		Last day for counties to deliver results to the state
December 4	2008	General election		Results certified

Primary election

Шаблон:Election table |- !style="background-color:#E9E9E9" valign=top|Candidate !style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|Stated party preference !style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|Website !style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|Notes |- |Christine Gregoire || Prefers Democratic Party || cw || Incumbent governor |- |Dino Rossi || Prefers G.O.P. Party || cw || Ex-state senator, 2004 gubernatorial nominee |- |Will Baker || Prefers Reform Party || cw || Out; lost primary |- |Duff Badgley || Prefers Green Party || cw || Out; lost primary |- |John W. Aiken Jr. || Prefers Republican Party || cw || Out; lost primary |- |Christian Pierre Joubert || Prefers Democratic Party || cw || Out; lost primary |- |Chris Tudor || States No Party Preference || cw || Out; lost primary |- |Javier O. Lopez || Prefers Republican Party || cw || Out; lost primary |- |Mohammad Hasan Said || States No Party Preference || cw || Out; lost primary |- |James White || Prefers Independent Party || cw || Out; lost primary |- |colspan=4 align=left|Source: Secretary of State |}

The Washington primary election was held August 19, 2008. For the first time, Washington ran a top-two primary, eliminating the "pick a party" primary used since 2004. Unlike traditional primaries, wherein each party with more than one candidate is reduced to a single person to appear on the general election ballot, the system simply reduces the entire crop of candidates from all parties down to the top two candidates, resulting in no more than two candidates appearing on the general election ballot for a given position. As a result, candidates from all parties were essentially running against each other. To allow for ideological identification, each candidate in a partisan race was allowed to indicate an arbitrary party preference.

Controversy over Rossi's party preference

Under the changes to election law made by the passage of Initiative 872, partisan contests are no longer tied to registered parties, but candidates are allowed to indicate an arbitrary "party preference" to appear next to their name on the primary and general election ballots. An extreme example of this occurred in the 40th District race for state senator, where candidate Timothy Stoddard indicated a preference for the "Salmon Yoga" party.

Republican candidate Dino Rossi listed his party preference as "G.O.P." instead of the traditional party name "Republican". Critics of Rossi contended that the choice of party name was an attempt to distance himself from any negative opinions associated with the Republican Party. Rossi's campaign argued that the difference was insignificant, saying voters are already aware that the terms refer to the same party. However, an Elway Research poll taken in August 2008 found that over 25% of registered voters were not aware that the term "GOP" meant the Republican Party.

On September 23, the Washington State Democrats, alleging that the latter is a misrepresentation of his true party affiliation, filed a lawsuit against the Secretary of State to force the state to list Rossi to on the general election ballot as a Republican instead of with the "GOP Party" label. A King County Superior Court judge dismissed the suit, saying nothing in state law made the choice of party name illegal, but he acknowledged the potential confusion. Had the lawsuit succeeded, many counties would have had to reprint their ballots, and the already-cast absentee votes of military personnel may have become invalid.

Primary results

While the primary was officially held on August 19, 2008, some counties such as King County allow absentee ballots to be postmarked by that date in order to be valid. As a result, the primary vote tally may not be officially certified until as late as September 9, to allow time for mailed-in ballots to arrive and be counted by the counties. As an increasing number of counties allow, encourage, or mandate mail-in ballots for voters within the county, the number of such ballots can be significant.

The vote tally as of October 10 is as follows:

Candidate	Home city	Stated party preference	Total votes	Percentage
Dino Rossi	Sammamish	Prefers G.O.P. Party	668,571	46.35%
Will Baker	Tacoma	Prefers Reform Party	5,201	0.36%
Christine Gregoire	Auburn	Prefers Democratic Party	696,306	48.27 %
Duff Badgley	Seattle	Prefers Green Party	9,702	0.67%
John W. Aiken Jr.	Medical Lake	Prefers Republican Party	21,564	1.49%
Christian Pierre Joubert	Edmonds	Prefers Democratic Party	16,646	1.15%
Christopher A. Tudor	Indianola	States No Party Preference	5,600	0.39%
Javier O. Lopez	Lacey	Prefers Republican Party	4,981	0.35%
Mohammad Hasan Said	Ephrata	States No Party Preference	3,002	0.21%
James White	Marysville	Prefers Independent Party	10,884	0.75%
Total			1,441,753	100.00 %

General election

Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi were declared the winners of the primary and placed on the ballot for the November 4 election, which coincided with the national election. However, with all Washington counties either exclusively or (in the case of Pierce and King counties) predominantly voting via mail-in ballot, many votes were cast prior to that date. King County, the largest county in the state, and the one which carried Gregoire to victory in 2004, sent out overseas absentee ballots on October 5, and resident mail-in ballots on October 17.

In Washington state, mail-in ballots only need to be postmarked, not received, by November 4, meaning that valid ballots will continue to be received and counted after that date. For the 2008 election, counties had until November 26 to send results to the state, and the Secretary of State had until December 4 to certify all state results.

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 16, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 2, 2008
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 3, 2008
Real Clear Politics	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 4, 2008

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Christine Gregoire (D)	Dino Rossi (R)	Other/Undecided Шаблон:Efn	Margin
Real Clear Politics	October 22 – November 2, 2008	November 2, 2008	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|50.7%	47.3%	2.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Gregoire +3.4%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Christine Gregoire (D)	Dino Rossi (R)	Undecided
Survey USA	October 30-November 2, 2008	–	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align="center" | 52%	46%	2%
Survey USA	October 26–27, 2008	–	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50%	48%	2%
Rasmussen Reports	October 22, 2008	–	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50%	48%	2%
Survey USA	October 12–13, 2008	–	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48%	47%	5%
Rasmussen Reports	October 2, 2008	–	–	48%	48%	4%
Survey USA	September 21–22, 2008	–	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50%	48%	2%
Strategic Vision	September 14–16, 2008	800	± 3.0%	46%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48%	6%
Rasmussen Reports	September 10, 2008	–	–	46%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52%	2%
Survey USA	September 5–7, 2008	–	–	47%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48%	5%
SurveyUSA	August 11–12, 2008	718	± 3.7%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50%	48%	2%
Rasmussen Reports	August 6, 2008	–	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47%	43%	10%
Strategic Vision	July 25–27, 2008	800	± 3.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47%	45%	8%
SurveyUSA	July 13–15, 2008	666	± 3.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49%	46%	5%
Moore Information	July 9–10, 2008	400	± 5.0%	45%	45%	11%
Rasmussen Reports	July 9, 2008	–	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49%	43%	8%
Elway Poll	June 18–22, 2008	405	± 5.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47%	39%	14%
Rasmussen Reports	June 9, 2008	–	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50%	43%	7%
SurveyUSA	June 9, 2008	637	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50%	47%	3%
Rasmussen Reports	May 12, 2008	–	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52%	41%	7%
Elway Poll	April 21–22, 2008	405	± 5.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43%	38%	19%
SurveyUSA	April 14–16, 2008	634	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50%	46%	4%
SurveyUSA	April 7, 2008	607	± 4.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48%	47%	5%
Rasmussen ReportsШаблон:Dead link	March 27, 2008	–	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47%	46%	7%
Rasmussen Reports	February 28, 2008	–	–	46%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47%	7%
Washington Poll	February 7–18, 2008	300	± 5.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54%	42%	4%
Elway Poll	January 3–6, 2008	405	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48%	35%	17%
Washington Poll	October 22–29, 2007	601	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47%	42%	11%
Strategic Vision	October 5–7, 2007	800	± 3.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47%	45%	8%
Strategic Vision	March 24–26, 2006	800	± 3.0%	38%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51%	11%

Police Guild press conference incident

At an August 7 press conference held by the Seattle Police Officers Guild to declare its endorsement of Rossi, the Guild forcibly removed Kelly Akers, a Gregoire campaign staffer who was filming the event, from the premises. The Rossi campaign reiterated a standing policy to prevent opposing campaigns from filming Rossi's appearances, to deny them the ability to take "attack footage." Rossi's campaign staff includes a cameraman tasked with filming Gregoire appearances.

Debates

Five debates were held between Gregoire and Rossi, the candidates in the general election.

Date	Time	Location	Sponsors
2008-09-20	9:00 PM	Fisher Plaza (Seattle)	Fisher Communications, League of Women Voters, Seattle Post-Intelligencer
2008-09-25	7:30 PM	Semiahmoo Resort (Blaine)	Association of Washington Business Complete video of debate - C-SPAN
2008-10-01	7:00 PM	Capitol Theatre (Yakima)	KCTS 9, Yakima Herald-Republic
2008-10-09	7:00 PM*	KSPS-TV Studios (Spokane)	KSPS-TV, Spokane Spokesman-Review
2008-10-15	8:00 PM	TBD	KING-TV, Seattle Times, NPR

^*The Spokane debate was taped in the morning to be aired at the indicated time. All other debates were held and aired live.

The Gregoire campaign had sought a sixth debate in Tacoma, sponsored by the Tacoma News-Tribune. The Rossi campaign instead sought a sixth debate in Vancouver, Washington, sponsored by The Columbian. The local Camas-Washougal Rotary Club went so far as to reserve a venue for October 8. The campaigns could not agree on either event.

The Gregoire campaign had set aside August 15 for a pre-primary radio debate with Rossi on Seattle NPR station KUOW-FM. Rossi declined to appear, giving Gregoire solo airtime.

Results

These are the gubernatorial election results as of 11/25/2008 10:45 PM PST. Gregoire declared victory after late evening returns were posted, with 42% of the statewide vote counted, showing her with a 52% lead over Rossi. By 10:30 PM PST (1:30 AM EST) all five major television networks had called the race for Gregoire. The Rossi campaign called the networks' declarations "premature" and did not concede defeat that evening. Rossi held out hope that late ballots would carry him, as late returns had reversed an early Gregoire lead in 2004. Rossi conceded the next morning.

Rossi conceded defeat in the gubernatorial election on November 5. In his concession speech, he indicated that he was not planning a return to politics.

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Cowlitz (largest city: Longview)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Island (largest city: Oak Harbor)
• Kitsap (largest city: Bremerton)
• Pierce (largest city: Tacoma)
• Skagit (largest city: Mount Vernon)

External links

• Elections from the Washington Secretary of State
• Washington Governor candidates at Project Vote Smart
• Washington Governor race from 2008 Race Tracker
• Campaign contributionsШаблон:Dead link from Follow the Money
• Rossi (R) vs Gregoire (D-i) graph of collected poll results from Pollster.com
• Official campaign websites (Archived)
  • Christine Gregoire, Democratic incumbent candidate
  • Dino Rossi, Republican candidate