Английская Википедия:2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsAR The 2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2010 alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln ran for re-election to a third term, facing a strong primary challenge from Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and prevailing only in a runoff. However, the general election was won by U.S. Representative John Boozman, the younger brother of Fay Boozman whom Lincoln defeated in 1998. Boozman became the first Republican since Reconstruction in 1872 to win this seat. Lincoln's 21% margin of defeat was the largest for a sitting senator in 32 years.[1]

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3 to 17. Lincoln was challenged by Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, who ran as a more liberal alternative. As no candidate received 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election was held on June 8, with early voting from June 1 to 7. Lincoln managed to narrowly defeat Halter in the runoff.[2]

MoveOn.org supported Halter, criticizing Lincoln for her stance on issues such as health care and environmental regulations.[3] Labor unions also backed Halter, and pledged to spend more than $3 million on his campaign.[4]

Candidates

Declared

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Blanche
Lincoln
Bill
Halter
D.C.
Morrison
Other Undecided
Research 2000 May 10–12, 2010 600 ± 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 37% 6% 11%
Research 2000 April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% 35% 7% 15%
Talk Business April 13, 2010 1,167 ± 3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 38% 31% 10% 20%
Research 2000 March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% 31% 25%
Research 2000 November 30 – December 2, 2009 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% 26% 32%

Results

Файл:Arkansas Senate Democratic primary, 2010.svg
Results by county: Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Collapsible list

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Runoff

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Blanche
Lincoln
Bill
Halter
Undecided
Research 2000 June 2–4, 2010 600 ± 4% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 6%
Research 2000 May 24–26, 2010 600 ± 4% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 9%

Results

Файл:Arkansas Senate Democratic primary runoff, 2010.svg
Runoff results by county: Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Collapsible list

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Republican primary

The Republican primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3–17.

Candidates

Declared

Straw poll

In December 2009, a straw poll was held for the current Republican candidates for U.S. Senate. The results were as follows:[14]

  1. Gilbert Baker – 35%
  2. Curtis Coleman – 33%
  3. Conrad Reynolds – 23%
  4. Tom Cox – 4%
  5. Kim Hendren – 2%
  6. Fred Ramey – 2%
  7. Buddy Rogers – 1%

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Randy
Alexander
Gilbert
Baker
John
Boozman
Curtis
Coleman
Kim
Hendren
Jim
Holt
Fred
Ramey
Conrad
Reynolds
Other Undecided
Research 2000 May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 12% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% 6% 19% 4% 13%
Talk Business April 13, 2010 1,357 ± 3% 3% 14% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% 5% 3% 8% 1% 3% 17%

Results

Файл:Arkansas Senate Republican primary, 2010.svg
Results by county: Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Collapsible list

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Arkansas had previously only elected one Republican senator since the Reconstruction, Tim Hutchinson who was defeated after his first term in 2002 by Mark Pryor. Lincoln faced Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and narrowly won the primary contest.

The political blog FiveThirtyEight ranked Lincoln the most vulnerable senator of this electoral cycle. RealClearPolitics claimed that in 2010 Lincoln had the potential for the lowest percentage of the vote for any incumbent since the nation first began directly electing senators.[18] Boozman received 58% of the vote in the general election and defeated Lincoln (37%), Independent Trevor Drown (3%) and Green John Gray (2%).

Lincoln heavily criticized Boozman for supporting the FairTax and privatization of Social Security.[19] She released an advertisement touting her support for earmarks.[20]

Debates

Шаблон:Expand section Lincoln and Boozman agreed to two debates.

Predictions

Файл:Senate Ratings Table 2010 AR.svg

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[22] Шаблон:USRaceRating October 9, 2010
Rothenberg[23] Шаблон:USRaceRating October 8, 2010
RealClearPolitics[24] Шаблон:USRaceRating October 9, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[25] Шаблон:USRaceRating October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[26] Шаблон:USRaceRating October 9, 2010

Fundraising

Candidate (Party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | Blanche Lincoln (D) $9,508,007 $8,431,989 $1,886,132 $0
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | John Boozman (R) $1,452,241 $968,318 $483,923 $11,905
Source: Federal Election Commission[27]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Blanche
Lincoln (D)
John
Boozman (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports October 28, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% 5% 4%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research October 15–19, 2010 1,505 ± 2.5% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55%
Mason-Dixon October 15–19, 2010 625 ± 4% 34% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% 6% 5%
Talk Business October 14, 2010 1,953 ± 2.2% 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 8% 7%
Rasmussen Reports September 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% 3% 5%
Reuters/Ipsos September 17–19, 2010 600 ± 4% 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% 1% 7%
Mason-Dixon September 12–14, 2010 625 ± 4% 34% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 4% 11%
Rasmussen Reports August 18, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 27% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 65% 4% 3%
Rasmussen Reports July 20, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 60% 2% 3%
Reuters/Ipsos July 16–18, 2010 600 ± 4% 35% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% 1% 10%
Talk Business July 17, 2010 793 ± 3.7% 32% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% 5% 6%
Magellan Strategies July 12, 2010 879 ± 3.3% 29% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 60% 4% 6%
Rasmussen Reports June 15, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 32% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 61% 4% 3%
Research 2000 May 24–26, 2010 600 ± 4% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 58% 4%
Rasmussen ReportsШаблон:Dead link May 19, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 28% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 66% 2% 4%
Research 2000 May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54%
Research 2000 April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52%
Rasmussen Reports April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 30% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% 9% 5%
Rasmussen Reports March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 6% 7%
Research 2000 March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 9%
Rasmussen Reports March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 6% 7%
Rasmussen Reports February 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% 4% 7%
Public Policy Polling January 29–31, 2010 810 ± 3.4% 33% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% 11%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Poll Source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Blanche
Lincoln (D)
Gilbert
Baker (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (report) March 20–22, 2009 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% 37% 16%
Public Policy Polling (report) August 21–24, 2009 784 ± 3.5% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 42% 18%
Research 2000 (report) September 8–10, 2009 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 44% 37% 19%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 28, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% 5% 8%
Zogby (report) November 16–17, 2009 501 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 41% 39% 2% 18%
Rasmussen Reports (report) December 1, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% 6% 7%
Research 2000 (report) November 30 – December 2, 2009 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 42% 41%
Rasmussen Reports (report) January 5, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 51% 3% 7%
Public Policy Polling (report) January 29–31, 2010 810 ± 3.4% 35% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50% 15%
Rasmussen Reports (report) February 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 33% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 52% 6% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 45% 6% 8%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 49% 10%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 51% 6% 7%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 31% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 53% 12% 4%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 45%
Poll Source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Blanche
Lincoln (D)
Kim
Hendren (R)
Other Undecided
Research 2000 (report) September 8–10, 2009 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 47% 28% 25%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 28, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 44% 5% 10%
Zogby (report) November 16–17, 2009 501 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 45% 29% 2% 24%
Rasmussen Reports (report) December 1, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 46% 6% 9%
Research 2000 (report) November 30 – December 2, 2009 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% 30%
Rasmussen Reports (report) January 5, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% 4% 10%
Rasmussen Reports (report) February 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 51% 7% 7%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 43% 7% 12%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48% 9%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 51% 5% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 30% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 51% 11% 8%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 46%
Poll Source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Blanche
Lincoln (D)
Curtis
Coleman (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (report) August 21–24, 2009 784 ± 3.5% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 41% 19%
Research 2000 (report) September 8–10, 2009 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 45% 37% 18%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 28, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 43% 5% 11%
Rasmussen Reports (report) December 1, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 44% 7% 9%
Research 2000 (report) November 30 – December 2, 2009 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 44% 39%
Rasmussen Reports (report) January 5, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48% 4% 9%
Rasmussen Reports (report) February 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 34% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50% 7% 9%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 43% 7% 10%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% 9%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48% 7% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 32% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 52% 8% 7%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 46%
Poll Source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Blanche
Lincoln (D)
Jim
Holt (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 45% 6% 10%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 51% 7% 7%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 31% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 54% 6% 9%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 44%
with Bill Halter
Poll Source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Bill
Halter (D)
John
Boozman (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 33% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 52% 6% 9%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48% 12%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 34% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48% 8% 11%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 31% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 56% 7% 7%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50%
Poll Source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Bill
Halter (D)
Gilbert
Baker (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 44% 5% 13%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 46% 10%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 44% 7% 12%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 33% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48% 10% 9%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 44%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 42% 42%
Poll Source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Bill
Halter (D)
Kim
Hendren (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 42% 7% 15%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 45% 11%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 34% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 42% 10% 13%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 33% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 45% 15% 9%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 45%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 42% 42%
Poll Source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Bill
Halter (D)
Curtis
Coleman (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 38% 9% 18%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 45% 44% 11%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 40% 10% 13%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 43% 11% 9%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 43% 41%
Poll Source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Bill
Halter (D)
Jim
Holt (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 42% 8% 12%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 34% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 43% 9% 13%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 31% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 49% 12% 8%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 43%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box gain with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Debates
Official campaign sites

Шаблон:Arkansas elections Шаблон:United States elections, 2010