Английская Википедия:2010 United States Senate election in Hawaii

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsHI The 2010 United States Senate election in Hawaii took place on November 2, 2010, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary elections were held on September 18, 2010. Incumbent Senator Daniel Inouye, also the President pro tempore, secured the Democratic nomination with over 88 percent of the vote over his sole challenger, businessman Andy Woerner, while former state legislator (and Inouye's 2004 opponent) Campbell Cavasso won the Republican nomination with two-thirds of the primary vote.

Focuses of the campaign included Inouye's seniority and ability to direct federal resources to the state, as well as Cavasso's emphases on change and fiscal responsibility. Polling found Inouye with a large lead, although one poll gave the Democrat a lead of only thirteen points, greatly underestimating his share of the vote. Inouye won re-election to his ninth and final term, with nearly 75 percent of the vote to Cavasso's 21.6 percent. The Senator would not serve out his ninth term, as he died in December 2012 and was replaced by appointed then-Lieutenant governor Brian Schatz.

Background

Hawaii last elected a Republican Senator in 1970, and its current delegation to the United States Congress currently consists entirely of Democrats. Democrats have also won Hawaii's electoral votes in every presidential election since Ronald Reagan's landslide election in 1984. The exceptions at the time were then-Governor Linda Lingle (who was serving her second and final term) and then-U.S. Representative Charles Djou, both of whom are Republicans.

Democratic primary

Candidates

• Daniel Inouye, incumbent U.S. Senator
• Andy Woerner, businessman

Republican primary

Candidates

• Campbell Cavasso, former State Representative, candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 2002, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2004
• Eddie Pirkowski, businessman and U.S. Senate candidate in the 2006 primary
• John Roco

Results

Файл:Hawaii Senate Republican primary, 2010.svg

Results by county: Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend

General election

Candidates

• Democratic: Daniel Inouye
• Republican: Campbell Cavasso
• Green: Jim Brewer
• Libertarian: Lloyd Mallan
• Independent: Jeff Jarrett

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 26, 2010
Rothenberg	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 22, 2010
RealClearPolitics	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 26, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 21, 2010
CQ Politics	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 26, 2010

Campaign

The death of longtime U.S. Senator Robert C. Byrd allowed Inouye to become the President pro tempore and Chairman of the United States Senate Committee on Appropriations. He made no apologies for bringing home as much federal money as he could, despite Republican insistence that the U.S. government taxed and spent too much, a stance he called a "nice gimmick". The Maui News endorsed his reelection.

Cavasso, the 2004 nominee, won the Republican primary again, and ran on a platform of change, emphasizing the need for a balanced budget. Inouye, who defeated Cavasso in 2004 by 52 percentage points, released TV ads that referred to himself simply as "Dan". The senator was said to be "working" for Hawaii's transportation, high-tech economy, education and other needs.

Polling

A Rasmussen Reports poll of 500 likely voters conducted on October 13 gave Inouye only a thirteen-point lead over Cavasso, and found the Republican with a modest lead among independent voters. However, the poll would ultimately miss the final margin by forty percentage points. FivethirtyeightШаблон:'s Nate Silver awarded the Rasmussen poll his "worst poll award", citing it as evidence of the pollster's bias against Democratic candidates and observing that it was, as of November 2010, the largest error of any electoral poll in the Fivethirtyeight databases going back to 1998.

Poll source	Шаблон:Small	Шаблон:Small	Шаблон:Small	Daniel Inouye (D)	John Roco (R)	Other	Undecided
Rasmussen Reports	June 24, 2010	500	± 4.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 68%	20%	3%	8%

Poll source	Шаблон:Small	Шаблон:Small	Шаблон:Small	Daniel Inouye (D)	Cam Cavasso (R)	Other	Undecided
Rasmussen Reports	October 13, 2010	500	± 4.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 53%	40%	3%	4%
Public Policy Polling	October 2–3, 2010	1326	± 2.7%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 65%	29%	—	6%

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | Daniel Inouye (D)	$3,503,323	$3,814,829	$1,506,305	$0
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Campbell Cavasso (R)	$252,711	$238,794	$14,385	$126,179
Source: Federal Election Commission

External links

• Hawaii Office of Elections
• U.S. Congress candidates for Hawaii at Project Vote Smart
• Hawaii U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
• Campaign contributions from Open Secrets
• 2010 Hawaii Senate General Election: All Head-to-Head Matchups graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
• Election 2010: Hawaii Senate from Rasmussen Reports
• Hawaii Senate from Real Clear Politics
• 2010 Hawaii Senate Race from CQ Politics
• Race profile from The New York Times

Official campaign websites

• Campbell Cavasso for U.S. Senate
• Daniel Inouye U.S. Senator
• Jeff Jarrett for Hawaii, US Senate
• Lloyd Mallan for U.S. Senate Шаблон:Webarchive
• Eddie Pirkowski for U.S. SenateШаблон:Dead link
• John Roco for U.S. Senator
• Andy Woerner for U.S. Senate