Английская Википедия:2011 National Assembly for Wales election

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use dmy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Politics of Wales The 2011 National Assembly for Wales election was an election for the National Assembly. The poll was held on 5 May 2011 and decided the incumbency for all the Assembly's seats. It was the fourth election for seats in the National Assembly for Wales (previous elections having been held in 1999, 2003 and 2007), and the second election taken under the rules of the Government of Wales Act 2006.

The election resulted in gains for the incumbent Welsh Labour, which gained four seats compared to the previous election and now has 30 seats, exactly half of the Assembly. The party also secured a swing in its favour of over 10 percentage points. The Welsh Conservatives emerged as the largest opposition party with 14 seats, a net gain of two, but party leader Nick Bourne lost his seat. The junior party in the government coalition, the nationalist Plaid Cymru, suffered a drop in its vote and lost 4 seats. The Welsh Liberal Democrats lost significantly in the popular vote and returned five AMs, a loss of one.

British, Irish, Commonwealth and European Union citizens living in Wales aged eighteen or over on election day were entitled to vote. The deadline to register to vote in the election was midnight on 14 April 2011, though anyone who qualified as an anonymous elector had until midnight on 26 April 2011 to register.

It was held on the same day as elections for Northern Ireland's 26 local councils, the Scottish Parliament and Northern Irish Assembly elections, a number of local elections in England and the United Kingdom Alternative Vote referendum.

Electoral method

In general elections for the National Assembly for Wales, each voter has two votes in a mixed member system. The first vote may be used to vote for a candidate to become the Assembly Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the 'first past the post' system. The second vote may be used to vote for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the d'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.

Results

• Overall turnout: 42.2%

Шаблон:Election table |-

| style="background-color:white" colspan=15 |

Файл:Welsh assembly election 2011.svg

|- !rowspan=3 colspan=2 | Parties !colspan=10 | Additional member system !rowspan=2 colspan=5 | Total seats |- !colspan=5 |Constituency !colspan=5 |Region |- ! Votes !! % !! +/− !! Seats !! +/− ! Votes !! % !! +/− !! Seats !! +/− ! Total !! +/− !! % |- Шаблон:AMS Election Summary Party Шаблон:AMS Election Summary Party Шаблон:AMS Election Summary Party Шаблон:AMS Election Summary Party Шаблон:AMS Election Summary Party Шаблон:AMS Election Summary Party Шаблон:AMS Election Summary Party Шаблон:AMS Election Summary Party Шаблон:AMS Election Summary Party Шаблон:AMS Election Summary Party Шаблон:AMS Election Summary Party Шаблон:AMS Election Summary Party Шаблон:AMS Election Summary Party Шаблон:AMS Election Summary Party Шаблон:AMS Election Summary Party Шаблон:AMS Election Summary |- |   || Total || 949,252 || || || 40 ||   || 949,388 || ||   || 20 || || 60 ||   || |}

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Opinion polls

Constituency Vote (FPTP)

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Lab	Cons	Plaid	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
5 May 2011	Welsh Assembly election results, 2011	42.3%	25.0%	19.3%	10.6%	2.8%	17.3%
4 May 2011	YouGov/ITV WalesШаблон:Dead link	47%	20%	18%	9%	6%	27%
2 May 2011	YouGov/ITV WalesШаблон:Dead link	45%	21%	18%	8%	7%	24%
14 April 2011	YouGov/ITV WalesШаблон:Dead link	49%	20%	17%	8%	6%	29%
7 April 2011	rmg:Clarity/Western Mail	51%	20%	17%	8%	5%	31%
30 March 2011	YouGov/ITV Wales	47%	21%	17%	8%	6%	26%
8 March 2011	YouGov/ITV WalesШаблон:Dead link	48%	20%	19%	7%	7%	28%
26 January 2011	YouGov/ITV Wales	45%	21%	21%	7%	6%	24%
22 December 2010	YouGov/ITV Wales	44%	23%	21%	6%	6%	21%
24 November 2010	YouGov/ITV Wales	44%	21%	21%	9%	6%	23%
27 November 2010	YouGov/ITV WalesШаблон:Dead link	44%	19%	21%	9%	8%	23%
3 May 2007	2007 National Assembly for Wales election	32.2%	22.4%	22.4%	14.8%	8.2%	9.8%

Regional Vote (AMS)

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Lab	Cons	Plaid	Lib Dem	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
5 May 2011	Welsh Assembly election results, 2011 (regional)	36.9%	22.5%	17.9%	8.0%	4.6%	3.4%	6.7%	14.4%
14 April 2011	YouGov/ITV WalesШаблон:Dead link	44%	20%	18%	8%	4%	2%	4%	24%
30 March 2011	YouGov/ITV Wales	45%	20%	16%	8%	6%	2%	2%	25%
8 March 2011	YouGov/ITV WalesШаблон:Dead link	45%	20%	18%	5%	5%	4%	2%	25%
26 January 2011	YouGov/ITV Wales	41%	20%	21%	8%	4%	2%	4%	20%
22 December 2010	YouGov/ITV Wales	42%	22%	21%	5%	5%	3%	2%	20%
24 November 2010	YouGov/ITV Wales	41%	20%	20%	9%	4%	3%	4%	21%
27 October 2010	YouGov/ITV WalesШаблон:Dead link	40%	18%	23%	9%	6%	2%	3%	17%
27 October 2010	YouGov/ITV WalesШаблон:Dead link	40%	18%	23%	9%	6%	2%	3%	17%
3 May 2007	National Assembly for Wales election, 2007 (regional)	29.6%	21.4%	21.0%	11.7%	4.0%	3.5%	8.8%	8.2%

Constituency and regional summary

Constituency nominations

NB: candidates in BOLD text were the incumbent assembly members. Non incumbents are represented in italics. Members elected 2011 are highlighted with party colours.

Constituency	Conservative	Labour	Liberal Democrats	Plaid Cymru	Others	Result
Aberavon	TJ Morgan	David Rees	Helen Ceri Clarke	Paul Nicholls Jones		Labour HOLD
Aberconwy	Janet Finch-Saunders	Eifion Wyn Williams	Mike Priestley	Iwan Huws		Conservative GAIN
Alyn and Deeside	John Bell	Carl Sargeant	Peter Williams	Shane Brennan	Mike Whitby (British National Party)	Labour HOLD
Arfon	Aled Davies	Christina Rees	Rhys Jones	Alun Ffred Jones		Plaid Cymru HOLD
Blaenau Gwent	Bob Haywood	Alun Davies	Martin Blakebrough	Darren Jones	Jayne Sullivan (Independent) Brian Urch (British National Party)	Labour GAIN
Brecon and Radnorshire	Chris Davies	Chris Lloyd	Kirsty Williams	Gary Price		LD HOLD
Bridgend	Alex Williams	Carwyn Jones	Briony Davies	Tim Thomas		Labour HOLD
Caerphilly	Owen Meredith	Jeff Cuthbert	Kay David	Ron Davies	Anthony King (British National Party)	Labour HOLD
Cardiff Central	Matt Smith	Jenny Rathbone	Nigel Howells	Chris Williams	Mathab Khan (Independent)	Labour GAIN
Cardiff North	Jonathan Morgan	Julie Morgan	Matt Smith	Ben Foday		Labour GAIN
Cardiff South and Penarth	Ben Gray	Vaughan Gething	Sian Anne Cliff	Liz Musa		Labour HOLD
Cardiff West	Craig Williams	Mark Drakeford	David Morgan	Neil McEvoy		Labour HOLD
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Henrietta Hensher	Antony Jones	Will Griffiths	Rhodri Glyn Thomas		Plaid Cymru HOLD
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire	Angela Burns	Christine Gwyther	Selwyn Runnett	Nerys Evans		Conservative HOLD
Ceredigion	Luke Evetts	Richard Boudier	Elizabeth Evans	Elin Jones	Chris Simpson (Welsh Green Party)	Plaid Cymru HOLD
Clwyd South	Paul Rogers	Ken Skates	Bruce Roberts	Mabon ap Gwynfor		Labour HOLD
Clwyd West	Darren Millar	Crispin Jones	Brian Cossey	Eifion Lloyd Jones		Conservative HOLD
Cynon Valley	Daniel Saxton	Christine Chapman	Ian Walton	Dafydd Trystan Davies		Labour HOLD
Delyn	Matthew Wright	Sandy Mewies	Michele Jones	Carrie Harper		Labour HOLD
Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Simon Baynes	Martyn Singleton	Steve Churchman	Lord Elis-Thomas	Louise Hughes (Llais Gwynedd)	Plaid Cymru HOLD
Gower	Caroline Jones	Edwina Hart	Peter May	Darren Price		Labour HOLD
Islwyn	David Chipp	Gwyn Price	Tom Sullivan	Steffan Lewis	Peter Whalley (British National Party)	Labour HOLD
Llanelli	Andrew Morgan	Keith Davies	Cheryl Philpott	Helen Mary Jones	Sian Caiach (Putting Llanelli First)	Labour GAIN
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney	Chris O'Brien	Huw Lewis	Amy Kitcher	Noel Turner	Tony Rogers (Independent)	Labour HOLD
Monmouth	Nick Ramsay	Mark Whitcutt	Janet Ellard	Fiona Cross	Steve Uncles (English Democrats)	Conservative HOLD
Montgomeryshire	Russell George	Nick Colbourne	Wyn Williams	David Senior		Conservative GAIN
Neath	Alex Powell	Gwenda Thomas	Matthew McCarthy	Alun Llewellyn	Mike Green (British National Party)	Labour HOLD
Newport East	Nick Webb	John Griffiths	Ed Townsend	Chris Paul		Labour HOLD
Newport West	David Williams	Rosemary Butler	Elizabeth Newton	Lyndon Binding		Labour HOLD
Ogmore	Martyn Hughes	Janice Gregory	Gerald Francis	Danny Clark		Labour HOLD
Pontypridd	Joel James	Mick Antoniw	Mike Powell	Ioan Bellin	Ken Owen (Independent))	Labour HOLD
Preseli Pembrokeshire	Paul Davies	Terry Mills	Bob Kilmister	Rhys Sinnett		Conservative HOLD
Rhondda	James Eric Jefferys	Leighton Andrews	George Summers	Sera Evans-Fear		Labour HOLD
Swansea East	Dan Boucher	Michael Hedges	Sam Samuel	Dic Jones	Joanne Shannon (British National Party)	Labour HOLD
Swansea West	Stephen Jenkins	Julie James	Rob Speht	Carl Harris		Labour HOLD
Torfaen	Natasha Asghar	Lynne Neagle	Will Griffiths	Jeff Rees	Susan Harwood (British National Party) Elizabeth Haynes (Independent))	Labour HOLD
Vale of Clwyd	Ian Gunning	Ann Jones	Heather Prydderch	Alun Lloyd Jones		Labour HOLD
Vale of Glamorgan	Angela Jones-Evans	Jane Hutt	Damian Chick	Ian Johnson		Labour HOLD
Wrexham	John Marek	Lesley Griffiths	Bill Brereton	Marc Jones		Labour HOLD
Ynys Môn	Paul Williams	Joe Lock	Rhys Taylor	Ieuan Wyn Jones		Plaid Cymru HOLD

Target seats for the main parties

Below are listed all the constituencies which required a swing of less than 7.5% from the 2007 result to change hands.

Labour targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2007		Swing to gain	Labour's place 2007	Result
1	Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire	Шаблон:Party name with colour	0.17	2nd	Conservative hold
2	Clwyd West	Шаблон:Party name with colour	3.05	2nd	Conservative hold
3	Preseli Pembrokeshire	Шаблон:Party name with colour	5.58	2nd	Conservative hold
4	Llanelli	Шаблон:Party name with colour	7.04	2nd	Labour gain
5	Cardiff North	Шаблон:Party name with colour	7.19	2nd	Labour gain

Plaid Cymru targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2007		Swing to gain	PC's place 2007	Result
1	Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire	Шаблон:Party name with colour	0.44	3rd	Conservative hold
2	Clwyd West	Шаблон:Party name with colour	3.33	3rd	Conservative hold
3	Neath	Шаблон:Party name with colour	3.36	2nd	Labour hold
4	Caerphilly	Шаблон:Party name with colour	4.38	2nd	Labour hold
5	Preseli Pembrokeshire	Шаблон:Party name with colour	6.92	3rd	Conservative hold

Conservative targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2007		Swing to gain	Con's place 2007	Result
1	Vale of Glamorgan	Шаблон:Party name with colour	0.13	2nd	Labour hold
2	Vale of Clwyd	Шаблон:Party name with colour	0.21	2nd	Labour hold
3	Delyn	Шаблон:Party name with colour	1.18	2nd	Labour hold
4	Gower	Шаблон:Party name with colour	2.17	2nd	Labour hold
5	Clwyd South	Шаблон:Party name with colour	2.87	2nd	Labour hold
6	Newport West	Шаблон:Party name with colour	2.96	2nd	Labour hold
7	Aberconwy	Шаблон:Party name with colour	4.09	2nd	Conservative gain
8	Montgomeryshire	Шаблон:Party name with colour	4.44	2nd	Conservative gain
9	Newport East	Шаблон:Party name with colour	4.73	3rd	Labour hold
10	Cardiff South & Penarth	Шаблон:Party name with colour	5.15	2nd	Labour hold
11	Bridgend	Шаблон:Party name with colour	5.21	2nd	Labour hold
12	Wrexham	Шаблон:Party name with colour	5.78	3rd	Labour hold
13	Swansea West	Шаблон:Party name with colour	6.58	3rd	Labour hold
14	Cardiff West	Шаблон:Party name with colour	6.88	2nd	Labour hold

Liberal Democrat targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2007		Swing to gain	LD's place 2007	Result
1	Newport East	Шаблон:Party name with colour	2.20	2nd	Labour hold
2	Swansea West	Шаблон:Party name with colour	3.30	2nd	Labour hold
3	Wrexham	Шаблон:Party name with colour	6.05	4th	Labour hold
4	Ceredigion	Шаблон:Party name with colour	6.57	2nd	Plaid Cymru hold
5	Pontypridd	Шаблон:Party name with colour	7.11	2nd	Labour hold

New members

23 of the members elected to the Assembly in the election were not members of the previous Assembly.

• Mick Antoniw, Labour, Pontypridd
• Byron Davies, Welsh Conservative, South Wales West electoral region
• Keith Davies, Labour, Llanelli
• Suzy Davies, Welsh Conservative, South Wales West electoral region
• Mark Drakeford, Labour, Cardiff West
• Rebecca Evans, Labour, Mid and West Wales electoral region
• Janet Finch-Saunders, Welsh Conservative, Aberconwy
• Russell George, Welsh Conservative, Montgomeryshire
• Vaughan Gething, Labour, Cardiff South and Penarth
• Llyr Huws Gruffydd, Plaid Cymru, North Wales electoral region
• Michael Hedges, Labour, Swansea East
• Julie James, Labour, Swansea West
• Julie Morgan, Labour, Cardiff North
• Eluned Parrott, Liberal Democrat, South Wales Central electoral region
• William Powell, Liberal Democrat, Mid and West Wales electoral region
• Gwyn Price, Labour, Islwyn
• Jenny Rathbone, Labour, Cardiff Central
• David Rees, Labour, Aberavon
• Aled Roberts, Liberal Democrat, North Wales electoral region (see below)
• Antoinette Sandbach, Welsh Conservative, North Wales electoral region
• Ken Skates, Labour, Clwyd South
• Simon Thomas, Plaid Cymru, Mid and West Wales electoral region
• Lindsay Whittle, Plaid Cymru, South Wales East electoral region

On 17 May it was discovered that two of the newly elected AMs, John Dixon and Aled Roberts, held posts which disqualified them from election to the Assembly. Although they had formally taken their seats at the first meeting on 11 May, they were then removed from membership of Assembly. Both resigned the posts which had given rise to the disqualification. After taking legal advice, the Presiding Officer Rosemary Butler was told that she must formally declare their seats vacant on Friday 27 May, which would mean the candidates placed second on the list being elected unless motions were tabled to reinstate the two. Motions to reinstate Dixon and Roberts were subsequently tabled, and the Assembly Commission issued a press statement explaining the legal situation as they saw it.

The Liberal Democrats withdrew the motion to reinstate John Dixon on 5 July 2011, after the assembly standards commissioner Gerard Elias QC made clear that he had failed to take notice of the relevant rules. On 6 July, Eluned Parrott was sworn in as an AM in his place, and the Assembly voted to readmit Aled Roberts, as evidence showed that he had been directed to out-of-date information in Welsh.

Defeated members

8 incumbent AMs were defeated at the polls.

• Eleanor Burnham, Liberal Democrat, North Wales electoral region
• Nick Bourne, Welsh Conservative, Mid and West Wales electoral region
• Nerys Evans, Plaid Cymru, Mid and West Wales electoral region
• Chris Franks, Plaid Cymru, South Wales Central electoral region
• Veronica German, Liberal Democrat, South Wales East electoral region
• Helen Mary Jones, Plaid Cymru, Llanelli
• Dai Lloyd, Plaid Cymru, South Wales West electoral region
• Jonathan Morgan, Welsh Conservative, Cardiff North

Retiring members

The following incumbent AMs did not offer themselves for re-election:

• Lorraine Barrett, Welsh Labour, Cardiff South and Penarth
• Mick Bates, Independent (elected Liberal Democrat), Montgomeryshire
• Alun Cairns, Welsh Conservative, South Wales West electoral region
• Jane Davidson, Welsh Labour, Pontypridd
• Andrew Davies, Welsh Labour, Swansea West
• Brian Gibbons, Welsh Labour, Aberavon
• Irene James, Welsh Labour, Islwyn
• Gareth Jones, Plaid Cymru, Aberconwy
• Trish Law, Independent, Blaenau Gwent
• Val Lloyd, Welsh Labour, Swansea East
• Rhodri Morgan, Welsh Labour, Cardiff West
• Jenny Randerson, Liberal Democrat, Cardiff Central
• Janet Ryder, Plaid Cymru, North Wales electoral region
• Karen Sinclair, Welsh Labour, Clwyd South
• Brynle Williams, Welsh Conservative, North Wales electoral region (died 1 April 2011).

See also

• 2011 Scottish Parliament election
• 2011 Northern Ireland Assembly election