Английская Википедия:2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsPA The 2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey, Jr. ran for and won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Tom Smith, and Libertarian nominee Rayburn Smith.

The requisite primary elections occurred on April 24, 2012, during which the Republicans and Democrats selected nominees for the general election. The Republican primary was a five-way contest. Tom Smith, the eventual nominee, faced David A. Christian, Sam Rohrer, Marc Scaringi, and Steve Welch. The Democratic primary was not heavily contested. Incumbent Bob Casey, Jr., defeated Joseph Vodvarka by a wide margin. The Libertarian Party nominated Rayburn Smith.

Casey led most pre-election polls and eventually defeated his opponents to win re-election to a second term in the U.S. Senate. The election was the first time a Democrat won re-election to the U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania since the 1962 election. As of 2023, this is the last time that Fayette County and Luzerne County voted Democratic in a Senate election.

Background

On November 7, 2006, Bob Casey, Jr., the State Treasurer and son of former Governor Bob Casey, Sr., defeated two-term incumbent Republican senator Rick Santorum with 58.64% of votes cast. Santorum's margin of defeat was the largest for an incumbent Republican senator in Pennsylvania history; it was also the first time a Democrat was elected to a full Senate term from Pennsylvania since Joseph Clark was re-elected in 1962.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Republican primary

Candidates

On ballot

Withdrew

Declined

Campaign

In January 2012, the Pennsylvania Republican Party officially endorsed Steve Welch for U.S. Senate.[21] The largest state newspaper, The Philadelphia Inquirer, also endorsed Welch. He was also endorsed by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. However, he was criticized for changing his party registration. In 2008, he became a Democrat so he could vote for Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary. In 2006, he donated money to Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak.

Tom Smith spent nearly $3 million in the first three months of 2012, outspending Welch 2-1. Smith has spent a wide majority of it in television advertising.[22] Like Welch, Smith has also registered as a Democrat. However, unlike Welch who was a registered Democrat for only a few years, Smith was a Democrat for 42 years.[23] Smith was a Plumcreek Township Supervisor and allegedly raised taxes 9 times (including the real estate, earned income, and per capita taxes).[24] Over the past decade, he donated over $185,000 to Republican candidates. The only Democrat he donated to was Congressman Jason Altmire, a moderate Blue Dog.[25]

Sam Rohrer, a former state representative, ran for statewide office again after losing to State Attorney General Tom Corbett in the 2010 Republican primary for Pennsylvania Governor. Rohrer was endorsed by various tea party organizations, as well as U.S. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and 2012 Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain.[26]

David Christian, a Vietnam war veteran and businessman, also ran. He previously ran for congress in 1984 and 1986. He was endorsed by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.[27]

Polling

Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Tim
Burns
David
Christian
Laureen
Cummings
John
Kensinger
Sam
Rohrer
Marc
Scaringi
Tom
Smith
John
Vernon
Steve
Welch
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling Шаблон:Nowrap 400 ±4.9% 15% 2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 25% 0% 3% 1% 1% 8% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided | 43%
Шаблон:Nowrap February 2–6, 2012 500 ±4.4% 1% 3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 10% 1% 8% 1% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided | 72%
Public Policy Polling March 8–11, 2012 564 ±4.1% 10% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 16% 8% 12% 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided | 48%
Шаблон:Nowrap March 20–25, 2012 505 ±4.2% 1% 7% 1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 9% 1% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided | 81%

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

General election

Candidates

Debates

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | Bob Casey, Jr. (D) $7,664,686 $2,754,060 $6,226,560 $5,261
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Tom Smith (R) $7,954,211 $5,673,558 $2,280,655 $6,475,000
Source: Federal Election Commission[29]

Top contributors

[30]

Bob Casey, Jr. Contribution Tom Smith Contribution
Comcast Corp $95,175 Rosebud Mining $26,000
Blank Rome LLP $65,500 Tj Smith Trucking $15,000
Reed Smith LLP $61,800 Penneco Oil Co $12,500
Cozen O'Connor $44,975 Transportation Equipment Supply Co $11,500
University of Pennsylvania $44,450 R&S Machine Co $10,250
Buchanan, Ingersoll & Rooney $43,098 Citizens United $10,000
K&L Gates $42,650 Mepco LLC $10,000
Pride Mobility Products $40,250 Snyder Armclar Gas $10,000
Blue Cross & Blue Shield $39,950 Stitt Management $10,000
National Amusements Inc. $39,250 Penn Waste $10,000

Top industries

[31]

Bob Casey, Jr. Contribution Tom Smith Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms $2,095,026 Retired $104,725
Lobbyists $407,472 Mining $87,800
Real Estate $389,559 Republican/Conservative $43,500
Health Professionals $336,023 Oil & Gas $40,750
Financial Institutions $335,998 Misc Business $35,300
Retired $329,132 Financial Institutions $25,500
Pharmaceuticals/Health Products $313,597 Misc Manufacturing & Distributing $19,650
Hospitals/Nursing Homes $296,737 Leadership PACs $19,000
Entertainment Industry $237,825 Misc Energy $18,000
Insurance $221,750 Trucking $15,250

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[32] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[33] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[34] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[35] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)
Tom
Smith (R)
Other Undecided
Angus Reid Public Opinion Шаблон:Webarchive November 2–4, 2012 507 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% 46% 1%
Public Policy Polling November 2–3, 2012 790 ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% 44% 3%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Шаблон:Webarchive November 1–3, 2012 430 ± 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 42% 2% 9%
Tribune-Review/Susquehanna October 29–31, 2012 800 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 45% 2% 8%
Franklin & Marshall College October 23–28, 2012 547 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 36% 4% 13%
Philadelphia Inquirer October 23–25, 2012 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 42% 9%
Rasmussen Reports October 24, 2012 500 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 45% 9%
Pharos Research October 19–21, 2012 760 ± 3.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% 42% 6%
Muhlenberg College PollШаблон:Dead link October 17–21, 2012 444 ± 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% 37% 2% 16%
Angus Reid Public OpinionШаблон:Dead link October 18–20, 2012 559 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% 45% 4%
Quinnipiac October 12–14, 2012 1,519 ± 2.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 45% 7%
Public Policy Polling October 12–14, 2012 500 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% 39% 11%
Muhlenberg Шаблон:Webarchive October 10–14, 2012 438 ± 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% 39% 1% 18%
Susquehanna Polling October 11–13, 2012 1,376 ± 2.6% 46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 1% 5%
Rasmussen Reports October 9, 2012 500 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 45% 1% 5%
Philadelphia Inquirer October 4–8, 2012 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 38% 14%
Susquehanna Polling October 4–6, 2012 725 ± 3.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 44% 9%
Siena Poll October 1–5, 2012 545 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% 35% 16%
Muhlenberg College Шаблон:Webarchive September 22–26, 2012 427 ± 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% 36% 7% 13%
Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Poll September 18–24, 2012 1,180 ± 3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 43%
Franklin & Marshall September 18–23, 2012 392 ± 4.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 38% 8%
Rasmussen Reports September 19, 2012 500 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 42% 2% 7%
Muhlenberg College Шаблон:Webarchive September 10–16, 2012 640 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% 33% 5% 18%
Philadelphia Inquirer August 21–23, 2012 601 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% 34% 13%
MCall/Muhlenberg Poll August 20–22, 2012 422 ± 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 30% 18%
Franklin & Marshall College August 7–12, 2012 681 ± 3.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 35% 23% 2% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 39%
Quinnipiac Шаблон:Webarchive July 24–30, 2012 1,168 ± 2.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% 37% 8%
Public Policy Polling July 21–23, 2012 758 ± 3.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 36% 18%
Rasmussen Reports July 18, 2012 500 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 38% 9%
We Ask America July 9–10, 2012 1,227 ± 2.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% 39% 8%
Quinnipiac Шаблон:Webarchive June 19–25, 2012 1,252 ± 2.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 32% 1% 17%
Quinnipiac Шаблон:Webarchive June 5–10, 2012 997 ± 3.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% 32% 1% 14%
Franklin & Marshall College May 29–June 4, 2012 412 ± 4.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% 21% 2% 35%
Rasmussen Reports May 21, 2012 500 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 41% 3% 7%
Public Policy Polling May 17–20, 2012 671 ± 3.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 33% 19%
Public Policy Polling March 8–11, 2012 689 ± 3.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 31% 20%
Public Policy Polling November 17–20, 2011 500 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 32% 20%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Republican primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jake
Corman
Laureen
Cummings
Charlie
Dent
Jim
Gerlach
Tim
Murphy
Rick
Santorum
Marc
Scaringi
Mark
Schweiker
Kim
Ward
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 30 – July 5, 2011 376 ± 5.1% 9% 5% 4% 7% 9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 1% 0% 18%
Public Policy Polling January 3–5, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 3% 8% 9% 7% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 45% 1% 8% 1% 19%
9% 10% 14% 13% 1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 18% 2% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 33%
General election
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)
Generic
Republican
Depends on
the candidate
Undecided
Quinnipiac Шаблон:Webarchive March 7–12, 2012 1256 ± 2.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 34% 8% 12%
Morning Call February 15–21, 2012 625 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 40% 25% 20% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)
Tim
Burns (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 17–20, 2011 500 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 34% 17%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)
David
Christian (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 8–11, 2012 689 ± 3.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% 32% 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)
Jake
Corman (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 30 – July 5, 2011 545 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% 35% 14%
Public Policy Polling April 7–10, 2011 593 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% 35% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)
Laureen
Cummings (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 30 – July 5, 2011 545 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% 31% 18%
Public Policy Polling April 7–10, 2011 593 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% 32% 17%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)
Charlie
Dent (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 7–10, 2011 593 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% 31% 18%
Municipoll February 21–23, 2011 670 ± 3.79.% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% 32% 17%
Public Policy Polling January 3–5, 2011 547 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% 31% 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)
Jim
Gerlach (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 30 – July 5, 2011 545 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 33% 17%
Public Policy Polling April 7–10, 2011 593 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% 32% 19%
Municipoll February 21–23, 2011 670 ± 3.79.% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 34% 17%
Public Policy Polling January 3–5, 2011 547 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 33% 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)
Tim
Murphy (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 30 – July 5, 2011 545 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 35% 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)
Sam
Rohrer (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 8–11, 2012 689 ± 3.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 34% 17%
Public Policy Polling November 17–20, 2011 500 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 36% 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)
Rick
Santorum (R)
Other Undecided
Morning Call February 15–21, 2012 625 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% 36% 7% 12%
Public Policy Polling November 17–20, 2011 500 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 39% 11%
Public Policy Polling June 30 – July 5, 2011 545 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 39% 13%
Public Policy Polling April 7–10, 2011 593 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 37% 13%
Municipoll February 21–23, 2011 670 ± 3.79.% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% 38% 12%
Public Policy Polling January 3–5, 2011 547 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 41% 10%
Public Policy Polling June 19–21, 2010 609 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% 39% 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)
Marc
Scaringi (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 8–11, 2012 689 ± 3.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 29% 22%
Public Policy Polling June 30 – July 5, 2011 545 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 29% 24%
Public Policy Polling April 7–10, 2011 593 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% 28% 21%
Public Policy Polling January 3–5, 2011 547 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% 27% 22%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)
Mark
Schweiker (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 3–5, 2011 547 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 34% 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)
Kim
Ward (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 7–10, 2011 593 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% 29% 21%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)
Steve
Welch (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 8–11, 2012 689 ± 3.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 31% 22%
Public Policy Polling November 17–20, 2011 500 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 33% 20%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Despite many predictions of a close race, the election was not close. Casey, despite being seen as somewhat vulnerable, went into election night with most analysts thinking he could win. Casey did win by more than expected, which can be traced to several factors. Casey trounced Smith in Philadelphia County, home of Philadelphia. Casey also won the surrounding collar counties of Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery, which are seen as vital in statewide elections in Pennsylvania. Casey also performed well in Allegheny County, home of Pittsburgh. Casey also performed well in Erie. Casey also performed strongly in the Scranton area. Smith did well in rural counties, but it wasn't enough to overcome the lead Casey had built in the huge population centers. Casey was sworn in for his second term beginning at noon on January 3, 2013. Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Casey won 9 of the 18 congressional districts, including four that elected Republicans.[36]

District Smith Casey Representative
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 15.85% 83.36% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Bob Brady
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 8.61% 90.74% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Chaka Fattah
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 53.94% 43.87% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Mike Kelly
rowspan=2 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 54.81% 42.78% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Jason Altmire
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Scott Perry
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 55.83% 41.46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Glenn Thompson
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 48.56% 49.72% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Jim Gerlach
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 48.23% 50.58% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Pat Meehan
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 47.74% 50.94% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Mike Fitzpatrick
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 58.99% 38.94% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Bill Shuster
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 58.12% 39.84% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Tom Marino
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 51.35% 46.54% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Lou Barletta
rowspan=2 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 52.79% 45.31% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Mark Critz
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Keith Rothfus
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 30.84% 68.37% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Allyson Schwartz
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 27.74% 70.02% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Mike Doyle
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 48.2% 50.02% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Charlie Dent
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 51.6% 46.52% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Joe Pitts
rowspan=2 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 40.96% 57.28% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Tim Holden
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Matt Cartwright
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 53.4% 44.81% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Tim Murphy

See also

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

Шаблон:2012 United States elections