Английская Википедия:2014 Florida's 13th congressional district special election

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsFL A special election for Florida's 13th congressional district was held March 11, 2014, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives, following the death of incumbent Republican Congressman Bill Young on October 18, 2013. Primary elections were held on January 14, 2014. Young, who had already announced that he would not be running for re-election in 2014, was re-elected in 2012 with 57 percent of the vote. With 100% of the precincts reporting, David Jolly was declared the winner.

Background

On October 9, 2013, Republican Bill Young, who had held this Tampa Bay-area district since 1971, announced that he would not run for re-election to a twenty-second term in 2014. He died nine days later and this special election was called to fill his seat. Though Young had been re-elected by wide margins, the district in recent years had become competitive. In the four most recent presidential elections, it was won by Al Gore over George W. Bush in 2000 51%-49%, by Bush with 51%-49% in 2004, by Barack Obama over John McCain 51%-47% and again carried by Obama in 2012 by a narrower 50%-49% over Mitt Romney. Given this, some political commentators and journalists viewed this election as a bellwether for the fall 2014 elections. While discounting the idea of special elections as bellwethers, political scientists agreed the result was a data point that public sentiment favored Republicans.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Mark Bircher, retired United States Marine Corps Brigadier General
• David Jolly, attorney and former general counsel to Bill Young
• Kathleen Peters, state representative

Declined

• Larry Ahern, state representative
• Joseph Ayoub, Mayor of Safety Harbor
• Rick Baker, former mayor of St. Petersburg
• Neil Brickfield, former Pinellas County Commissioner
• George Cretekos, Mayor of Clearwater
• Larry Crow, former state representative
• Bob Gualtieri, Pinellas County sheriff
• Frank Hibbard, former mayor of Clearwater
• Michael Pinson, publisher
• Karen Seel, Pinellas County Commissioner
• Beverly Young, widow of Bill Young
• Bill "Billy" Young II, son of Bill Young
• Tom Young, brother of Bill Young
• Nick Zoller, Republican consultant and strategist

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mark Bircher	David Jolly	Kathleen Peters	Undecided
St. Pete Polls	January 9, 2014	653	± 3.8%	26.3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 36.5%	23.9%	13.3%
Gravis Marketing	January 8, 2014	976	± 3%	25%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 34%	28%	14%
St. Pete Polls	December 30, 2013	488	± 4.4%	17.7%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 39.4%	27.7%	15.1%
St. Pete Polls	December 18, 2013	660	± 3.8%	16.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 34.9%	30.2%	18.9%
St. Pete Polls	December 3, 2013	534	± 4.2%	17.2%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 27.8%	27.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 28.0%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Rick Baker	Neil Brickfield	Larry Crow	Frank Hibbard	David Jolly	Kathleen Peters	Karen Seel	Other	Undecided
St. Pete Polls	November 18, 2013	582	± 4.1%	—	—	—	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 39.2%	17.3%	—	30.9%	12.6%
St. Pete Polls	November 5, 2013	498	± 4.4%	—	16.8%	—	15%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 18.7%	—	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Others align=center| 28.7%	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 20.8%
St. Pete Polls	October 15, 2013	742	± 3.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51%	7%	4%	—	2%	—	10%	27%	—

Democratic nomination

Candidates

Nominee

• Alex Sink, former Chief Financial Officer of Florida and nominee for Governor of Florida in 2010

Withdrew

• Jessica Ehrlich, attorney and nominee for the 13th congressional district in 2012

Declined

• Charlie Justice, Pinellas County Commissioner and nominee for Florida's 10th congressional district in 2010
• Janet C. Long, Pinellas County Commissioner

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jessica Ehrlich	Alex Sink	Other	Undecided
St. Pete Polls	November 5, 2013	367	± 5.1%	10.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 69.6%	10.7%	9.1%
St. Pete Polls	October 15, 2013	706	± 3.7%	20%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 63%	10%	7%

General election

Candidates

• David Jolly (Republican), attorney and former general counsel to Bill Young
• Michael S. Levinson (write-in)
• Lucas Overby (Libertarian), commercial diver and activist
• Alex Sink (Democratic), former Chief Financial Officer of Florida and nominee for Governor of Florida in 2010

One voter was confused by a website called "sinkforcongress2014" accepting donations to the National Republican Congressional Committee to defeat Sink and other Democrats, thinking it was a pro-Sink website. His $250 donation was refunded by the NRCC.

Debates

David Jolly, Lucas Overby, and Alex Sink, the three candidates appearing on the ballot for the special election, took part in a televised debate on February 3, 2014. Held at the Seminole Campus of St. Petersburg College and co-hosted by the Tampa Bay Times and Bay News 9, the event aired live on C-SPAN 3. Al Ruechel, Adam Smith, and Amy Hollyfield served as moderators. The debate can be viewed in its entirety here.

A non-scientific poll conducted after the debate by Bay News 9 indicated that overall viewers felt David Jolly had won with 37% of the vote, followed by Alex Sink with 33% and Lucas Overby with 30%.

Campaign spending

During the campaign, OpenSecrets reported on February 13, 2014, that outside groups had spent $3.5 million on the election, with $2.6 million of that from groups that support Jolly. This makes it the most expensive election of the 2014 cycle so far and one of the most expensive special congressional elections in history.

The Associated Press reports that $11 million total was spent as the Democratic Party poured money into the campaign in its final weeks. In the end, Sink outspent Jolly by 3 to 1 on television ads as well as outspending him overall.

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	David Jolly (R)	Alex Sink (D)	Lucas Overby (L)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	March 7–9, 2014	702	± 3.7%	45%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48%	6%	2%
RedRacingHorses & PMI inc.	February 25–27, 2014	391	± 6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46%	44%	5%	5%
St. Pete Polls	February 25, 2014	1,269	± 2.8%	45.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45.9%	6.4%	2.1%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	February 17–18, 2014	400	± 4.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44%	42%	—	14%
St. Pete Polls	February 12, 2014	1,130	± 2.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46.2%	44%	6.6%	2.4%
St. Leo University	February 9–11, 2014	400	± 5%	37%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46%	12%	5%
Braun Research	February 4–9, 2014	603	± 4%	35%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42%	4%	14%
DCCC	January 24, 2014	527	± 4.3%	45%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49%	—	6%
McLaughlin & Associates	January 16–19, 2014	400	± 4.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43%	38%	4%	15%
St. Pete Polls	January 15, 2014	1,278	± 2.7%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47%	42.8%	4.4%	5.9%
St. Pete Polls	December 3, 2013	1,128	± 2.9%	36.3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49%	5.6%	8.8%
St. Pete Polls	November 18, 2013	1,252	± 2.8%	34.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49.3%	—	15.7%
St. Pete Polls	November 5, 2013	1,079	± 3%	31%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51.5%	—	17.5%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Rick Baker (R)	Jessica Ehrlich (D)	Undecided
St. Pete Polls	October 15, 2013	1,741	± 2.3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 34.6%	30.7%	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 34.7%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Rick Baker (R)	Alex Sink (D)	Undecided
St. Pete Polls	October 15, 2013	1,741	± 2.3%	34.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50.8%	15.2%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mark Bircher (R)	Alex Sink (D)	Undecided
St. Pete Polls	December 3, 2013	1,128	± 2.9%	30.2%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50.4%	12.1%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Neil Brickfield (R)	Alex Sink (D)	Undecided
St. Pete Polls	November 5, 2013	1,079	± 3%	30.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51.2%	18.8%
St. Pete Polls	October 15, 2013	1,741	± 2.3%	24.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 56.6%	19.4%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Frank Hibbard (R)	Alex Sink (D)	Undecided
St. Pete Polls	November 5, 2013	1,079	± 3%	30.7%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51.6%	17.7%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kathleen Peters (R)	Alex Sink (D)	Undecided
St. Pete Polls	December 3, 2013	1,128	± 2.9%	34.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47.7%	12.2%
St. Pete Polls	November 18, 2013	1,252	± 2.8%	30.7%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49.7%	19.6%

External links

• Mark Bircher
• David Jolly
• Michael S. Levinson
• Lucas Overby
• Kathleen Peters
• Alex Sink
• Nick Zoller