Английская Википедия:2014 United States Senate election in Alaska

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Alaska sidebar The 2014 United States Senate election in Alaska took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the election of the governor of Alaska, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Begich ran for re-election to a second term in office. Primary elections were held on August 19, 2014. Begich was renominated and the Republicans picked former Commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources Dan Sullivan.[1]

On November 7, Sullivan held an 8,000-vote lead,[2] which on November 11 had shrunk slightly to 7,991 votes.[3] Multiple media outlets called the race for Sullivan on November 12[4][5] and Begich conceded to Sullivan on November 17.[6][7] Republican Sean Parnell simultaneously lost the gubernatorial election to independent candidate Bill Walker, marking just the fifth time in the last 50 years in which U.S. Senate and gubernatorial incumbents from different political parties were simultaneously defeated in the same state.[8]

Background

Democrat Mark Begich won the 2008 election, defeating seven-term Republican incumbent Ted Stevens by just under 4,000 votes. A few days before the election, Stevens had been convicted of a felony, but the case against Stevens was later dismissed by the Justice Department after the election, when serious issues of prosecutorial misconduct emerged. In the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney easily won Alaska by 13 points, which made Begich a prime target during an election cycle in which Republicans needed a net gain of six seats to retake control of the Senate.

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination.

Democratic candidates

Declared

Alaskan Independence candidates

Declared

Libertarian candidates

Declared

Declined

  • Joe Miller, former magistrate judge, Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[15][16]

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Subsequent events

In an upset, the unknown Thom Walker won the Libertarian nomination despite not campaigning and raising no money. Libertarians speculated that he was a Republican "plant" designed to keep a more viable Libertarian from winning the nomination and then taking votes away from the Republican nominee in the general election. They further speculated that Walker was chosen because he shared a surname with Bill Walker (no relation), who was running as an independent candidate in the 2014 gubernatorial election, and that voters may have been confused because Bill Walker did not appear on the primary ballot and thus they may have voted for Thom Walker in error. This confusion could have extended to the general election, with voters picking Thom Walker for the Senate, thinking he was Bill Walker.[17]

Walker withdrew from the race on August 27, saying that "my work location and schedule will have me out of town, out of contact and off the campaign trail for too long." The Libertarian executive board replaced him as the nominee with Mark Fish.[18]

Alaskan Independence nominee Vic Kohring, who had changed his voter registration from Republican to Alaskan Independence just before the filing deadline, withdrew from the race on September 2 and endorsed Dan Sullivan. The Alaskan Independence Party did not name a replacement nominee before the deadline for them to do so had passed.[19]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Файл:Sullivan (15373065277).jpg
Bumper sticker from Sullivan's campaign

Withdrew

  • Kathleen Tonn, anti-abortion activist[24][25]

Declined

Filed

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Jaramillo
Loren
Leman
Joe
Miller
Sarah
Palin
Sean
Parnell
Dan A.
Sullivan
Dan S.
Sullivan
Kathleen
Tonn
Mead
Treadwell
Other/
Undecided
Moore Information (R-S. Sullivan) August 4–5, 2014 500 17% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 42% 25% 16%
Public Policy Polling Шаблон:Nowrap 337 ± 5.3% 2% 20% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 35% 29% 14%
Moore Information (R-S. Sullivan) July 29–31, 2014 375 ± 5.5% 16% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 35% 27% 22%
Hellenthal & Assoc. June 17–28, 2014 21% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 35% 31% 13%
Moore Information (R-S. Sullivan) June 16–18, 2014 500 13% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 36% 27% 24%
Dittman Research (R-A. Sullivan) May 27–29, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 12% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 37% 35% 16%
Public Policy Polling May 8–11, 2014 313 ± 5.5% 3% 14% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 40% 26% 17%
Moore Information (R-S. Sullivan) April 27–28, 2014 12% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 38% 22% 29%
Public Policy Polling Шаблон:Nowrap 442 ± 4.7% 2% 20% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 30% 4% 25% 19%
Ivan Moore December 15–22, 2013 335 19% 29% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 34% 18%
Public Policy Polling July 25–28, 2013 507 ± 4.4% 12% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 36% 15% 26% 11%
24% 25% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 33% 19%
30% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% 18%
Harper Polling May 6–7, 2013 379 ± 5.0% 14% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 32% 30% 24%
19% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% 29%
Public Policy Polling February 4–5, 2013 537 ± 4.2% 16% 17% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 24% 19% 14% 11%
20% 19% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 29% 23% 9%
Harper Polling January 29–30, 2013 1,157 ± 2.9% 12% 27% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 32% 14% 15%

Results

Файл:2014AKSenGOP.svg
Results by state house district Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Collapsible list

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Declined

General election

Fundraising

Candidate Raised Spent Cash on Hand Debt
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | Mark Begich (D) $7,918,887 $8,487,590 $721,505 0
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Dan Sullivan (R) $6,093,368 $7,579,632 $449,506 $43,000

Debates

Begich and Sullivan participated in a televised debate regarding fisheries on August 27, 2014, at the University of Alaska Anchorage.[38] Another televised debate concerning natural resources was held on October 1 in Kodiak, Alaska.[39]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[40] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[41] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[42] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[43] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Begich (D)
Dan
Sullivan (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 1–2, 2014 1,052 ± 3.0% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% 4%[44] 5%
46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 7%
Rasmussen Reports October 27–30, 2014 887 ± 4.0% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 11%
Ivan Moore October 24–26, 2014 544 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 42% 7% 4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 561 ± 9.0% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 0% 9%
Harstad Strategic Research October 18–22, 2014 700 44% 44% 4% 7%
Hellenthal & Associates October 15–21, 2014 403 ± 4.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 39% 7%[45] 6%
Rasmussen Reports October 8–12, 2014 700 ± 4.0% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 3% 3%
Fox News October 4–7, 2014 706 ± 3.5% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% 6%[46] 10%
CNN/ORC October 1–6, 2014 704 LV ± 3.5% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% 5%
875 RV ± 3.4% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 8%
Hickman Analytics September 26 – October 2, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% 4%[47] 9%
CBS News/New York Times September 20 – October 1, 2014 593 ± 5.0% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 2% 8%
Rassmussen Reports September 23–24, 2014 750 ± 4.0% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 5% 4%
Marc Hellenthal September 12–24, 2014 400 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% 7%[48] 5%
Public Policy Polling September 18–21, 2014 880 ± 3.3% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% 5%[49] 11%
42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 45% 13%
Dittman September 14–17, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 8%
Hays Research/AFL-CIO September 13–14, 2014 500 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% 36% 23%
Harstad Strategic Research September 7–10, 2014 709 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% 40% 7% 8%
CBS News/New York Times August 18 – September 2, 2014 412 ± 6.0% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% 6% 12%
Harstad Strategic Research August 24–27, 2014 807 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% 40% 10% 8%
ccAdvertising August 21–24, 2014 4,403 31% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 42% 27%
Rasmussen Reports August 20–21, 2014 750 ± 4% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 3% 4%
Public Policy Polling July 31 – August 1, 2014 673 ± 3.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% 37% 7%[50] 12%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% 41% 14%
Harstad Strategic Research July 20–24, 2014 808 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% 37% 10% 9%
CBS News/New York Times July 5–24, 2014 452 ± 5.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 35% 9% 10%
Basswood Research June 29–30, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 45% 15%
Moore Information (R-Sullivan) June 16–18, 2014 500 ± 4.0% 43% 43% 14%
Public Policy Polling May 8–11, 2014 582 ± 4.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% 37% 7%[51] 14%
Moore Information (R-Sullivan) April 27–28, 2014 500 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% 42% 14%
Magellan Strategies April 14, 2014 603 ± 4.0% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% 7% 6%
Rasmussen Reports March 19–20, 2014 750 ± 4.0% 44% 44% 3% 9%
Public Policy Polling January 30 – February 1, 2014 850 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% 37% 9%[52] 13%
Harper Polling January 20–22, 2014 677 ± 3.8% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 12%
Harper Polling September 24–25, 2013 731 ± 3.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% 41% 16%
Public Policy Polling July 25–28, 2013 890 ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 39% 15%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

with Leman
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Begich (D)
Loren
Leman (R)
Zachary
Kile (AIP)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 4–5, 2013 1,129 ± 2.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% 40% 10%
with Miller
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Begich (D)
Joe
Miller (R)
Zachary
Kile (AIP)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 31 – August 1, 2014 673 ± 3.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% 32% 12%[53] 11%
Public Policy Polling May 8–11, 2014 582 ± 4.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% 27% 4% 2%[54] 23%
Rasmussen Reports March 19–20, 2014 750 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 38% 3% 10%
Public Policy Polling January 30 – February 1, 2014 850 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% 25% 5% 3% 21%
Harper Polling January 20–22, 2014 677 ± 3.76% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% 32% 17%
Harper Polling September 24–25, 2013 731 ± 3.62% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% 28% 18%
Public Policy Polling July 25–28, 2013 890 ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% 32% 13%
Public Policy Polling February 4–5, 2013 1,129 ± 2.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 58% 30% 12%
Harper Polling January 29–30, 2013 1,157 ± 2.88% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% 29% 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Begich (D)
Dan
Sullivan (R)
Joe
Miller (I)
Other Undecided
Hays Research Group February 9, 2014 502 ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% 33% 10%
with Palin
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Begich (D)
Sarah
Palin (R)
Zachary
Kile (AIP)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 8–11, 2014 582 ± 4.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% 35% 6% 3%[55] 15%
Public Policy Polling January 30 – February 1, 2014 850 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% 40% 4% 2% 11%
Hays Research Group August 14–15, 2013 388 ± 4.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% 37% 8%
Public Policy Polling July 25–28, 2013 890 ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% 40% 8%
Public Policy Polling February 4–5, 2013 1,129 ± 2.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54% 38% 8%
Harper Polling January 29–30, 2013 1,157 ± 2.88% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 40% 13%
with Parnell
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Begich (D)
Sean
Parnell (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 4–5, 2013 1,129 ± 2.9% 48% 48% 4%
Harper Polling January 29–30, 2013 1,157 ± 2.88% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% 14%
with Dan A. Sullivan
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Begich (D)
Dan A.
Sullivan (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 4–5, 2013 1,129 ± 2.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 41% 12%
with Treadwell
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Begich (D)
Mead
Treadwell (R)
Zachary
Kile (AIP)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 31 – August 1, 2014 673 ± 3.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% 37% 8%[56] 12%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% 41% 15%
CBS News/New York Times July 5–24, 2014 452 ± 5.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 45% 9% 10%
Public Policy Polling May 8–11, 2014 582 ± 4.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% 33% 6% 3%[55] 17%
Rasmussen Reports March 19–20, 2014 750 ± 4% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 3% 6%
Public Policy Polling January 30 – February 1, 2014 850 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% 37% 5% 2% 13%
Harper Polling January 20–22, 2014 677 ± 3.76% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 12%
Harper Polling September 24–25, 2013 731 ± 3.62% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% 42% 15%
Hays Research Group August 14–15, 2013 388 ± 4.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50.4% 38.5% 11.1%
Public Policy Polling July 25–28, 2013 890 ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% 40% 17%
Public Policy Polling February 4–5, 2013 1,129 ± 2.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 39% 14%
Harper Polling January 29–30, 2013 1,157 ± 2.88% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% 34% 22%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box gain with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

Boroughs and Census Areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Boroughs and Census Areas that flipped Republican to Democratic

See also

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Campaign websites

Шаблон:2014 United States elections

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  7. Joseph, Cameron. Begich concedes Alaska Senate race, The Hill, November 17, 2014.
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  30. Sarah Palin Ups Her 2014 Game, Endorses In Competitive GOP Senate Primary
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  44. Mark Fish (L) 2%, Ted Gianoutsos (I) 2%
  45. Mark Fish (L) 3%, Ted Gianoutsos (I) 4%
  46. Mark Fish (L) 3%, Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1%, Other 2%
  47. Mark Fish (L) 4%, Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1%
  48. Mark Fish (L)
  49. Mark Fish (L) 3%, Ted Gianoutsos (I) 2%
  50. Mark Fish (L) 4%, Vic Kohring (AI) 3%, Ted Gianoutsos (I) 0%, Sidney Hill (I) 0%
  51. Zachary Kile 5%, Ted Gianoutsos 1%, Sidney Hill 1%
  52. Zachary Kile 6%, Ted Gianoutsos 1%, Sidney Hill 2%
  53. Mark Fish (L) 6%, Vic Kohring (AI) 4%, Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1%, Sidney Hill (I) 1%
  54. Ted Gianoutsos 0%, Sidney Hill 2%
  55. 55,0 55,1 Ted Gianoutsos 1%, Sidney Hill 2%
  56. Mark Fish (L) 5%, Vic Kohring (AI) 3%, Ted Gianoutsos (I) 0%, Sidney Hill (I) 0%