Английская Википедия:2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Arkansas The 2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arkansas, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Arkansas, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor ran for re-election to a third term in office. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary; U.S. Representative Tom Cotton was also unopposed for the Republican nomination. While the race was initially expected to be close, Cotton prevailed by a margin of 56.5%-39.4%.[1] The Associated Press called the race for Cotton immediately after the polls closed.[2] This marked the first time since Reconstruction in 1877 that Republicans held both Senate seats in Arkansas, and the Arkansas congressional delegation was entirely Republican.

Elected at age 37, Cotton surpassed Connecticut's Chris Murphy as the youngest incumbent senator at that time and was until the seating of Missouri’s Josh Hawley at the opening of the 116th United States Congress.

Background

Arkansas Attorney General Mark Pryor was first elected to the Senate in 2002, defeating first-term Republican incumbent Tim Hutchinson. He was re-elected with 80% of the vote in 2008 as he was unopposed by a Republican candidate. He faced competition only from Green Party nominee Rebekah Kennedy, who won the largest share of the vote of any Green Party candidate in a Senate race in history.[3] Of the 88 previous occasions when an incumbent senator was re-elected without major party opposition and then went on to contest the following general election, all 88 were successfully re-elected.[4]

Heading into the 2014 Cotton vs. Pryor matchup, only 17 House freshmen had been elected to the U.S. Senate over the last century, and just two in the last 40 years.[5] In the 2014 cycle, Cotton and Montana's Steve Daines became the 18th and 19th freshmen to win U.S. Senate races since 1914.[6]

The election was originally thought to be extremely close- a claim backed up by polling, but Tom Cotton ended up winning in a landslide against the incumbent, by 17.1 points.[7]

Democratic primary

Pryor was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Republican primary

Cotton was unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Third parties

Candidates

Declared

  • Nathan LaFrance (Libertarian), energy executive[15]
  • Mark Swaney (Green), mechanical engineer and nominee for the state house in 2010[15]

General election

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box

Fundraising

Candidate Raised Spent Cash on Hand
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | Mark Pryor (D) $10,428,246 $12,034,784 $364,653
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Tom Cotton (R) $7,557,443 $6,411,763 $1,885,435

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[16] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[18] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[19] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Mark
Pryor (D)
Tom
Cotton (R)
Other Undecided
Basswood Research March 16–17, 2013 600 ± 4% 35% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 43% 22%
Basswood Research June 22–23, 2013 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 41% 40% 19%
Clark Research July 23–27, 2013 729 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 43% 35% 21%
On Message Inc. July 29–30, 2013 600 ± 4% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 44% 14%
Harper Polling August 4–5, 2013 587 ± 4.04% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 43% 16%
Polling Company/WomanTrend August 6–7, 2013 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 45% 43% 12%
Global Strategy Group August 26–29, 2013 501 ± ?% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 47% 40% 13%
Harper Polling September 24–26, 2013 622 ± 3.93% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 45% 42% 13%
Talk Business/Hendrix College October 8, 2013 603 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 42% 41% 17%
Public Policy Polling October 14–15, 2013 955 ± 3.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 44% 41% 15%
University of Arkansas October 10–17, 2013 800 ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 34% 32% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided | 34%
Impact Management Group October 24, 2013 911 ± 3.2% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 42% 18%
Polling Company/WomanTrend December 6–7, 2013 400 ± 4.9% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48% 9%
Public Policy Polling December 13–15, 2013 1,004 ± 3.1% 44% 44% 12%
Rasmussen Reports February 4–5, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 45% 5% 10%
Harper Polling January 26–27, 2014 533 ± 4.24% 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 42% 22%
Impact Management Group February 10, 2014 1,202 ± 2.83% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 46% 13%
Hickman Analytics February 17–20, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 41% 8% 12%
42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 51% 8%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research March 27 – April 2, 2014 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% 45% 7%
Talk Business/Hendrix College April 3–4, 2014 1,068 ± 3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% 43% 4%[20] 8%
Opinion Research Associates April 1–8, 2014 400 ± 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% 38% 8%
Harper Polling April 9–10, 2014 522 ± 4.29% 39% 39% 22%
New York Times/Kaiser Family April 8–15, 2014 857 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% 36% 4% 15%
Magellan Strategies April 14–15, 2014 857 ± 3.35% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 46% 4% 7%
Public Policy Polling April 25–27, 2014 840 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 43% 42% 16%
NBC News/Marist April 30 – May 4, 2014 876 ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 51% 40% 1% 3%
Rasmussen Reports May 27–28, 2014 750 ± 4% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% 4% 6%
Public Opinion Strategies May 27–29, 2014 500 ± 4.39% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 46% 13%
Fabrizio Lee June 3–5, 2014 600 ± 4% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 51% 5%
Magellan Strategies June 4–5, 2014 755 ± 3.57% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 49% 2% 4%
Impact Management Group June 29, 2014 1290 ± 2.72% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% 10%
Gravis Marketing July 7–8, 2014 987 ± 3% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 51% 5%[21]
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 1,628 ± 2.9% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 49% 1% 5%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research July 20–24, 2014 600 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 48% 46% 6%
Talk Business/Hendrix College July 22–25, 2014 1,780 ± 2.3% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 44% 7%[22] 7%
Public Policy Polling August 1–3, 2014 1,066 ± 3% 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 41% 7%[22] 14%
41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 43% 16%
Opinion Research Associates August 6–14, 2014 414 ± 4.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% 41% 4%[20] 9%
Rasmussen Reports August 25–26, 2014 750 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 44% 43% 6% 6%
ccAdvertising August 31 – September 1, 2014 1,735 ± ? 29% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 37% 34%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014 1,572 ± 3% 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 43% 2% 16%
CNN/ORC International August 28 – September 2, 2014 523 LV ± 4.5% 47% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 49% 4%
839 RV ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 47% 38% 14%
Hickman Analytics August 26 – September 3, 2014 700 ± 3.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 45% 43% 12%
NBC News/Marist September 2–4, 2014 639 LV ± 3.9% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 45% 6%[23] 9%
1,068 RV ± 3% 41% 41% 8%[24] 11%
Answers Unlimited September 7–9, 2014 600 ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% 42% 4%[20] 8%
Gravis Marketing September 8–11, 2014 902 ± 4% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% 2%[21] 8%
Hickman Analytics September 13–18, 2014 801 ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 46% 43% 11%
Public Policy Polling September 18–21, 2014 1,453 ± 2.6% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 43% 6%[25] 13%
39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 45% 15%
Suffolk September 20–23, 2014 500 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 45% 43% 5%[25] 7%
Rasmussen Reports September 24–25, 2014 750 ± 4% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% 5% 8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 1,991 ± 2% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 45% 1% 13%
Opinion Research Associates October 1–5, 2014 400 ± 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 45% 42% 5% 9%
Fox News October 4–7, 2014 707 ± 3.5% 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 46% 5%[26] 11%
Rasmussen Reports October 13–15, 2014 940 ± 3% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% 4% 5%
Talk Business/Hendrix October 15–16, 2014 2,075 ± 2.2% 40.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 49% 5%[27] 6%
NBC News/Marist October 19–23, 2014 621 ± 3.9% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 45% 6%[23] 7%
971 ± 3.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 43% 42% 6%[23] 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 1,567 ± 4% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% 1% 10%
Opinion Research Associates October 25–26, 2014 401 ± 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 45% 44% 2%[28] 10%
Issues & Answers Network October 21–27, 2014 568 ± 4.1% 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 49% 15%
Rasmussen Reports October 27–29, 2014 967 ± 3% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 51% 4% 2%
Public Policy Polling October 30 – November 1, 2014 1,092 ± 3% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 49% 4%[29] 5%
45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 51% 4%
Opinion Research Associates October 30 – November 1, 2014 400 ± 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 45% 43% 4%[29] 8%

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box gain with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Шаблон:Columns-list

See also

Шаблон:Portal

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Campaign websites (Archived)

Шаблон:Arkansas elections Шаблон:2014 United States elections

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  19. Шаблон:Cite web
  20. 20,0 20,1 20,2 Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
  21. 21,0 21,1 Nathan LaFrance (L)
  22. 22,0 22,1 Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%
  23. 23,0 23,1 23,2 Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%, Other 1%
  24. Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%, Other 1%
  25. 25,0 25,1 Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%
  26. Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%, Other 1%
  27. Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
  28. Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 1%
  29. 29,0 29,1 Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%