Английская Википедия:2014 United States Senate election in Montana

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Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsMT The 2014 United States Senate election in Montana took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate from Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Democratic Senator Max Baucus, who had announced he would retire and not seek a seventh term, resigned in February 2014 in order to accept an appointment as United States Ambassador to China under President Barack Obama. Democrat John Walsh, the Lieutenant Governor of Montana, who was already running for Baucus' seat when Baucus was named to the ambassadorship, was appointed to replace Baucus by Governor Steve Bullock.[1]

Walsh won the Democratic primary on June 3 and ran for a first full term in office, but withdrew from the race on August 7, 2014 due to allegations that he had plagiarized a term paper while attending the Army War College.[2] Democrats selected Amanda Curtis, a state representative from Butte, to replace Walsh as the party's nominee at a convention in Helena on August 16.[3] Steve Daines, the incumbent U.S. Representative from Montana's at-large congressional district, easily won the Republican nomination.

Daines defeated Curtis 57.9% to 40.0%, while Libertarian Roger Roots won 2.2%. Daines and Arkansas' Tom Cotton became just the 18th and 19th U.S. House freshmen to win U.S. Senate races over the last 100 years, and just the third and fourth over the last 40 years.[4] He became the first Republican to win this Senate seat since 1907.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Polling

Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small John
Walsh
Dirk
Adams
John
Bohlinger
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013 381 ± 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 39% 3% 31% 27%
Harper Polling January 20–22, 2014 519 ± 4.3% 23% 2% 23% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 52%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Max
Baucus
Brian
Schweitzer
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 333 ± 5.4% 34% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% 14%
Public Policy Polling November 28–30, 2011 573 ± 4.1% 35% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% 14%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 332 ± 5.4% 37% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 15%
Public Policy Polling September 10–11, 2012 201 ± 5.4% 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 40% 24%
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 371 ± 5.1% 35% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54% 11%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Denise
Juneau
Brian
Schweitzer
Other Undecided
Harper Polling April 27–28, 2013 165 ± 7.63% 14% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 78% 8%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Файл:2014 MT US Senate Democratic primary.svg
Results by county Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Collapsible list

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Democratic convention

Because Walsh withdrew, a nominating convention was held to pick a new nominee prior to August 20.[29] The state party called a convention for August 16, and voting delegates were members of the State Central Committee, specifically: "one chair and one vice chair from each existing county central committee; one state committeeman and one state committeewoman from each county central committee; all voting members of the State Party Executive Board; the president of each chartered organization of the Montana Democratic Party; Montana State House leadership, and Montana State Senate leaders, and all Democrats currently holding statewide or federal office."[30]

Candidates

Momentary buzz was created by a movement to draft actor Jeff Bridges for the nomination, with over 1,000 people signing a petition on Change.org and a Twitter account, DudeSenator, being created online. Bridges, who lives part-time and owns property in the Paradise Valley south of Livingston, Montana, declined the offer on the Howard Stern show, noting the disapproval of his wife. Other news outlets noted that he also was not registered to vote in Montana.[31][32]

Potential

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Polling

Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Steve
Daines
Champ
Edmunds
Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013 469 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 66% 7% 27%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Steve
Daines
Champ
Edmunds
Marc
Racicot
Corey
Stapleton
Undecided
Harper Polling April 27–28, 2013 472 ± 4.51% 26% 3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 42% 6% 22%
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 340 ± 5.3% 28% 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 5% 14%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Declared

Independents

Candidates

Declined

General election

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[59] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[60] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[61] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[62] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Steve
Daines (R)
Amanda
Curtis (D)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports August 18–19, 2014 750 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% 35% 2% 8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014 684 ± 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% 35% 1% 11%
Gravis Marketing September 29–30, 2014 535 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% 41% 5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 549 ± 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% 34% 0% 10%
The MSU-Billings Poll October 6–11, 2014 410 ± 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 31% 2%[63] 21%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 497 ± 6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% 38% 0% 6%
Gravis Marketing October 23–24, 2014 604 ± 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% 39% 8%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

With Adams
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Dirk
Adams (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Harper Polling January 20–22, 2014 519 ± 4.3% 20% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% 36%
with Baucus
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Max
Baucus (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 7%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Max
Baucus (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 37% 16%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Max
Baucus (D)
Tim
Fox (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 43% 11%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Max
Baucus (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 11%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Max
Baucus (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% 38% 16%
With Bohlinger
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small John
Bohlinger (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013 952 ± 3.2% 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 13%
Harper Polling January 20–22, 2014 519 ± 4.3% 32% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% 25%
Harper Polling April 7–8, 2014 604 ± 4.3% 33% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% 23%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small John
Bohlinger (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013 952 ± 3.2% 37% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 39% 24%
With Juneau
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Denise
Juneau (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 13%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Denise
Juneau (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% 34% 25%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Denise
Juneau (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 37% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% 11%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Denise
Juneau (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% 38% 21%
With Keenan
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Nancy
Keenan (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 12%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Nancy
Keenan (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% 36% 23%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Nancy
Keenan (D)
Tim
Fox (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 45% 15%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Nancy
Keenan (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% 11%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Nancy
Keenan (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 40% 40% 20%
With Lindeen
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Monica
Lindeen (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 37% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 14%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Monica
Lindeen (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 39% 34% 26%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Monica
Lindeen (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 35% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% 13%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Monica
Lindeen (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 39% 37% 24%
With Schweitzer
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 45% 7%
Harper Polling April 27–28, 2013 771 ± 3.53% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% 40% 10%
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 45% 7%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% 37% 12%
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% 37% 11%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Tim
Fox (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 43% 8%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% 9%
Harper Polling April 27–28, 2013 771 ± 3.53% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 43% 10%
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 6%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 39% 13%
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% 38% 10%
With Walsh
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small John
Walsh (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013 952 ± 3.2% 35% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% 13%
Harper Polling January 20–22, 2014 519 ± 4.3% 29% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% 28%
Rasmussen Reports March 17–18, 2014 750 ± 4% 37% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 4% 9%
Magellan Strategies April 1–2, 2014 2,490 ± 1.96% 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 9%[64] 6%
Harper Polling April 7–8, 2014 604 ± 4.3% 35% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 42% 23%
Hickman Analytics April 24–30, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 37% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 14%
Vox Populi Polling May 21–22, 2014 806 ± 3.5% 33% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% 11%
Magellan Strategies June 4–5, 2014 761 ± 3.57% 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% 6%
Rasmussen Reports June 9–10, 2014 750 ± 4% 35% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% 3% 9%
Public Policy Polling July 17–18, 2014 574 ± 4.1% 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% 15%
Gravis Marketing July 20–22, 2014 741 ± 4% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 45% 6%[63] 7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 838 ± 3.6% 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% 2% 4%
Gravis Marketing July 24, 2014 781 ± 3.5% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 45% 9%[63] 8%
Vox Populi Polling August 3–4, 2014 798 ± 3.5% 34% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 18%
Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small John
Walsh (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013 952 ± 3.2% 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 38% 26%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box gain with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Шаблон:Columns-list

See also

References

Шаблон:Notelist Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Шаблон:2014 United States elections

Шаблон:Use mdy dates

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  64. Roger Roots (L) 4%, Other 5%