Английская Википедия:2014 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:For Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Oklahoma The 2014 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Oklahoma, concurrently with the regularly-scheduled election to Oklahoma's other Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
This special election was held to fill the remaining two years of incumbent Republican Senator Tom Coburn's second term. Coburn, a strong supporter of term limits, had announced even before he was elected to the Senate in 2004 that he would only serve for two terms. After he was re-elected in 2010, he reaffirmed that he would not run for re-election in 2016.[1][2]
In January 2014, Coburn announced he would resign early at the end of the 113th United States Congress on January 3, 2015.[3][4] As pursuant to Oklahoma law, he submitted an "irrevocable letter of resignation" to take effect on that day. Thus, the special election was held while he was still in office.[5][6]
Unlike most states, except in very specific circumstances,[lower-alpha 1] Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin did not have the power to appoint a replacement senator. Instead, state law required her to schedule the special election "as soon as practicable".[8]
Primary elections were held on June 24, 2014. The Republicans nominated U.S. Representative James Lankford; as no candidate in the Democratic primary received more than 50% of the vote, a primary runoff election was held on August 26 between State Senator Connie Johnson and perennial candidate Jim Rogers, which Johnson won. In the general election, Lankford defeated Johnson in a landslide and was sworn in on the day Coburn's resignation took effect. Lankford easily won re-election to a full six-year term in 2016.
Republican primary
By April 2014, Lankford and T.W. Shannon were seen as the main contenders for the Republican nomination, with Brogdon a potential spoiler who was running even further to the right than they did. Although there was reported to be "little daylight ideologically" between Lankford and Shannon, and both are associated with the Tea Party movement, Shannon attracted the support of figures including Ted Cruz, Mike Lee and Sarah Palin and organizations including FreedomWorks and the Senate Conservatives Fund. They criticized Lankford for his votes to raise the debt ceiling and for being a member of the Republican House leadership. Supporters of Lankford, including the chairman of the Oklahoma Republican Party, pointed out Shannon's ties to the establishment-supporting Congressman Tom Cole, accused Cruz, Lee, Palin and the others of being "outsiders" who were attempting to meddle in the state's primary, and also pointed out that the aforementioned had previously criticized Coburn, whom they were now praising in an attempt to woo him into supporting Shannon.[9] Local Tea Party groups also criticised the national conservatives, saying in an open letter that they had endorsed Shannon without consulting them or examining his record, that Shannon was a "poser" who "had never stepped foot" in a Tea Party meeting before announcing his run for the Senate and "no longer attends grassroots meetings nor does he seek the grassroots support".[10]
In June, Coburn responded to attack ads calling Lankford a "Washington insider" who "votes with liberals" by saying that "political advertisements by groups... supporting T.W. Shannon have crossed an important line — they simply aren't truthful and they mischaracterize James Lankford's service in Congress." He also called Lankford "a man of absolute integrity" who was "one of the most honest, thoughtful and sincere men I have met in my time in Washington." He also praised Lankford's "life experience", "perspective" and willingness to fight the "status quo", but stopped short of fully endorsing him. He did however say that "as a voter", the negative ads from pro-Shannon groups made him question Shannon's ability to govern.[11]
By mid-June, Lankford was considered to have the momentum, a reversal of fortunes, though a runoff was considered likely.[12] Shannon's negative advertisements were considered to have backfired, in contrast to Lankford's advertisements, which were largely positive. Lankford also raised and spent more money than Shannon, who was not significantly helped financially by national conservative groups, who had focused their attention on the primary runoff in Mississippi between incumbent senator Thad Cochran and conservative challenger Chris McDaniel. The runoff in Mississippi was held on the same day as the primary in Oklahoma and Alexandra Jaffe of The Hill reported that Shannon's best hope was to force a runoff, which would allow the national groups to refocus on Oklahoma.[13] Outside spending for Shannon was $1.8m compared to $170,000 for Lankford but Lankford spent $1.8m to Shannon's $1.1m.[14]
In what was considered a surprise result, Lankford defeated Shannon by over 20%, negating the need for a runoff. Lankford ran a strong, well-organised campaign, considered by Congressman Tom Cole to be "probably the best organization in the state that was operating at this time". He was also helped by his "existing statewide presence grounded in the state's burgeoning Baptist community", which goes back to his time before politics when he ran the Falls Creek Baptist Youth Camp,[15] and the fact that his congressional district is based in Oklahoma City, where turnout was predicted to be high because there was also a competitive race in the Republican primary to succeed him. To attempt to counteract that, Shannon targeted the media market in Tulsa.[12][14] Finally, unlike in other races, there was no split between the establishment and the Tea Party, with Shannon not capitalising on an "anti-establishment" wave that benefited others like Ben Sasse in Nebraska. Cole summarised: "We don't need people coming in and telling us who conservatives are, [because] everybody is a conservative. There are no moderates."[14] State Senator David Holt, who supported Shannon, said that Coburn's comments about Lankford were the most important factor, saying that "Senator Coburn is enormously respected in Oklahoma, and when it appeared that he had a preference, I think that the voters listened."[14]
Candidates
Declared
- Randy Brogdon, former state senator and candidate for Governor in 2010[16]
- Andy Craig, Army Veteran and sales professional[17]
- Kevin Crow, college professor[18]
- James Lankford, U.S. Representative[19]
- Eric McCray, businessman[20]
- T. W. Shannon, state representative and former Speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives[21]
- Jason Weger, paramedic[22]
Declined
- Jim Bridenstine, U.S. Representative[23]
- Tom Cole, U.S. Representative[24]
- Patrice Douglas, State Corporation Commissioner and former mayor of Edmond (running for OK-05)[23][25]
- Mary Fallin, Governor of Oklahoma[26]
- Frank Keating, former governor of Oklahoma[27]
- Todd Lamb, Lieutenant Governor of Oklahoma[28]
- Frank Lucas, U.S. Representative[29][30]
- Markwayne Mullin, U.S. Representative[31]
- Scott Pruitt, Attorney General of Oklahoma[24]
- J. C. Watts, former U.S. Representative[26]
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Randy Brogdon |
Andy Craig |
Kevin Crow |
James Lankford |
Eric McCray |
T.W. Shannon |
J. C. Watts |
Jason Weger |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling Шаблон:Webarchive | Шаблон:Nowrap | 627 | ± 3.91% | — | — | — | 37% | — | 8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 40% | 2% | — | 13% |
| — | — | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 54% | — | 18% | — | 1% | — | 27% | ||||
| Tarrance Group* | February 10–12, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.9% | — | — | 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 47% | — | 17% | — | — | — | 33% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | February 9–11, 2014 | ? | ± ? | — | — | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 51% | — | 16% | — | — | 1% | 32% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | March 16–17, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.38% | 7% | — | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 37% | — | 28% | — | — | 3% | 25% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | April 21–22, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.48% | 7% | — | — | 32% | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 42% | — | — | 3% | 16% |
| NSON Opinion Strategy | April 23–29, 2014 | 400 | ± ? | 3.5% | 1% | 0.3% | 30.8% | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 32% | — | — | 1.0% | 32.5% |
| American Viewpoint | April 27–29, 2014 | ? | ± ? | — | — | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 36% | — | 34% | — | — | ? | ? |
| SoonerPoll | May 5–10, 2014 | 580 | ± 4.07% | 4.5% | 0.6% | 1.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 33.8% | 0.6% | 31.9% | — | 1.5% | — | 25.4% |
| Tarrance Group* | May 12–14, 2014 | 501 | ± 4.5% | 5% | — | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 43% | — | 33% | — | — | — | 18% |
| American Viewpoint | May 27–29, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 4% | — | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 48% | — | 26% | — | — | 3% | 18% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | June 7–9, 2014 | 600 | ± 4.81% | — | — | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 39% | — | 37% | — | — | 6% | 18% |
| Tarrance Group* | June 9–11, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.5% | — | — | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 41% | — | 34% | — | — | 7% | 18% |
| SoonerPoll | June 14–18, 2014 | 415 | ± 4.81% | 3% | — | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 41% | — | 38% | — | — | 2% | 16% |
| SoonerPoll | June 19–21, 2014 | 840 | ± 3.38% | 4.2% | 0.4% | 1.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 43.4% | 0.9% | 34.9% | — | 1.5% | — | 13.3% |
- * Internal poll for James Lankford campaign
| Poll source | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Randy Brogdon |
James Lankford |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSON Opinion Strategy | April 23–29, 2014 | 400 | ± ? | 10.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 50% | 39.8% |
| Poll source | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | James Lankford |
T.W. Shannon |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSON Opinion Strategy | April 23–29, 2014 | 400 | ± ? | 30.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 38.2% | 31.5% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Patrick Hayes[32]
- Connie Johnson, state senator[33][34]
- Jim Rogers, perennial candidate and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010[32]
Withdrew
- Charles Jenkins, retired federal employee[35]
Declined
- Bill Anoatubby, Governor of the Chickasaw Nation[36]
- Jari Askins, former lieutenant governor of Oklahoma and nominee for governor in 2010[36]
- Dan Boren, former U.S. Representative[36]
- Clark Brewster, attorney[37][33]
- Kenneth Corn, former state senator and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2010[38]
- Drew Edmondson, former attorney general of Oklahoma and candidate for governor in 2010[36]
- Kathy Taylor, former mayor of Tulsa[23]
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Patrick Hayes |
Connie Johnson |
Jim Rogers |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoonerPoll | May 5–10, 2014 | 631 | ± 3.9% | 5% | 9.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 9.4% | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided | 76.3% |
| SoonerPoll | June 19–21, 2014 | 781 | ± 3.5% | 6.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 13.2% | 5.4% | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided | 75.1% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Runoff
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Independents
Candidates
Declared
- Mark Beard[32]
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 7, 2014
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[39] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[40] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[41] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[42] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
| Poll source | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | James Lankford (R) |
Connie Johnson (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov | July 5–24, 2014 | 1,302 | ± 4.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 56% | 34% | 6% | 5% |
| Rasmussen | August 27–28, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 58% | 29% | 6% | 7% |
| Sooner Poll | August 28–30, 2014 | 603 | ± 3.99% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 58% | 28% | 3%[43] | 11% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 821 | ± 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 61% | 28% | 1% | 10% |
| Sooner Poll | September 27–29, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 56% | 28% | 4% | 12% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 1,244 | ± 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 65% | 24% | 0% | 11% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov | October 16–23, 2014 | 995 | ± 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 63% | 29% | 0% | 8% |
| Sooner Poll | October 25–29, 2014 | 949 | ± 3.18% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 59% | 28% | 4%[43] | 9% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
See also
- 2014 United States Senate elections
- 2014 United States elections
- 2014 United States Senate election in Oklahoma
- 2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma
- 2014 Oklahoma gubernatorial election
Notes
References
External links
- Official campaign websites (Archived)
- James Lankford for U.S. Senate
- Connie Johnson for U.S. Senate
- Andy Craig for U.S. Senate
- Kevin Crow for U.S. Senate
- Eric McCray for U.S. Senate
- T.W. Shannon for U.S. Senate
- Jason Weger for U.S. Senate
Шаблон:2014 United States elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 12,0 12,1 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 14,0 14,1 14,2 14,3 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 23,0 23,1 23,2 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 24,0 24,1 Шаблон:Cite news
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- ↑ 26,0 26,1 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 32,0 32,1 32,2 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 33,0 33,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 36,0 36,1 36,2 36,3 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 43,0 43,1 Mark Beard (I)
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