Английская Википедия:2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election

Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:See also Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsLA The 2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election was held on November 21, 2015, to elect the governor of Louisiana. Incumbent Republican Governor Bobby Jindal was not eligible to run for re-election to a third term because of term limits established by the Louisiana Constitution.

Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates appeared on the same ballot, regardless of party and voters may vote for any candidate regardless of their party affiliation. As no candidate received a majority of the vote during the primary election on October 24, 2015, a runoff election was held on November 21, 2015, between the top two candidates in the primary. Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar "top two primary" system).

The runoff election featured Democrat John Bel Edwards, Minority Leader of the Louisiana House of Representatives, and Republican U.S. Senator David Vitter, as they were the top two vote getters in the primary. Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, both Republicans, were eliminated in the jungle primary.

In the runoff, which was held November 21, 2015, Edwards defeated Vitter by a count of 56.1% to 43.9%.^[1] Edwards became the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Louisiana since Mary Landrieu won her third term in the U.S. Senate in 2008; his victory also came one year after national wins for the Republican Party in congressional and state elections. The election was one of the most expensive in state history, with over $50 million spent by candidates and outside groups.^[2]

Candidates

Republican Party

Filed

Scott Angelle, Public Service Commissioner and former lieutenant governor of Louisiana^[3]^[4]
Jay Dardenne, Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana^[5]
David Vitter, U.S. Senator^[6]

Declined

John Neely Kennedy, Louisiana State Treasurer (running for re-election)^[7]
Newell Normand, Sheriff of Jefferson Parish (endorsed Dardenne)^[8]
Michael G. Strain, Commissioner of Agriculture and Forestry (running for re-election)^[9]
Rodney Alexander, former secretary of the Louisiana Department of Veterans Affairs and former U.S. Representative^[10]
Burl Cain, Warden of the Louisiana State Penitentiary^[11]^[12]
Gerald Long, state senator^[13]
Buddy Roemer, former governor, former U.S. Representative and candidate for president in 2012^[14]

Democratic Party

Filed

John Bel Edwards, Minority Leader of the Louisiana House of Representatives^[3]^[15]
Cary Deaton, candidate for governor in 2011
SL Simpson

Declined

Mary Landrieu, former U.S. Senator, state treasurer and candidate for governor in 1995^[16]
Mitch Landrieu, Mayor of New Orleans and former lieutenant governor of Louisiana^[17]^[18]
John Georges, Businessman and independent candidate for governor in 2007^[19]
Jason Williams, New Orleans City Council President^[20]
Tony Clayton, prosecutor of the 18th Judicial District Court, member of the Southern University system board ^[21]
James Bernhard, businessman^[22]^[23]
Foster Campbell, Public Service Commissioner, former state senator and candidate for governor in 2007^[24]

Ineligible

Edwin Edwards, former governor, U.S. Representative and state senator (ineligible due to 2000 felony convictions for bribery and racketeering)^[25]

Independents

Filed

Beryl Billiot, restaurant owner and former Marine^[26]
Jeremy Odom, minister^[27]
Eric Paul Orgeron^[28]

Declined

Melvin Slack, candidate for Mayor of Shreveport in 2014^[29]
Russel L. Honoré, retired lieutenant general and former commander of Joint Task Force Katrina^[30]^[31]^[32]^[33]

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Jungle primary

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Scott Angelle (R)	Jay Dardenne (R)	John Bel Edwards (D)	John Kennedy (R)	Mitch Landrieu (D)	David Vitter (R)	Other	Undecided
MarblePortLLC	October 20–21, 2015	1464	Шаблон:Nowrap	12.7%	14.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 40.5%	—	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 28.5%	—	4.3%
MRI	October 15–19, 2015	600	Шаблон:Nowrap	17%	14%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 36%	—	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 19%	2%	12%
Harper Polling (R)	October 16–17, 2015	612	Шаблон:Nowrap	14%	14%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 36%	—	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 26%	—	9%
KPLC/Raycom Media	October 7–13, 2015	602	Шаблон:Nowrap	7%	8%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 24%	—	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 21%	—	37%
The Advocate/WWL-TV	September 20–23, 2015	800	Шаблон:Nowrap	15%	14%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 24%	—	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 24%	—	18%
Public Policy Polling	September 21–22, 2015	616	Шаблон:Nowrap	15%	14%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 28%	—	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 27%	—	17%
Verne Kennedy	July 27–31, 2015	600	Шаблон:Nowrap	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 25%	12%	20%	—	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 22%	—	21%
MarblePort	June 17, 2015	1415	Шаблон:Nowrap	11.1%	10.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 28.8%	—	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 34.1%	—	15.6%
Verne Kennedy	May 27–29, 2015	700	Шаблон:Nowrap	17%	12%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 29%	—	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 29%	—	13%
SM&O Research	May 5, 2015	600	Шаблон:Nowrap	6%	17%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 25%	—	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 38%	—	16%
MarblePort	March 17, 2015	1,071	Шаблон:Nowrap	7%	14%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 31%	—	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 34%	—	14%
Triumph	March 5, 2015	1,655	± 2.4%	7%	15%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 33%	—	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 35%	—	11%
NSO Research*	January 10–13, 2015	600	± 4%	2%	10%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 20%	13%	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 24%	—	32%
SM&O Research	December 9–11, 2014	600	± ?	3.1%	18.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 25.7%	—	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 36.3%	—	16.3%
Suffolk	October 23–26, 2014	500	± 4%	3%	9.8%	3.8%	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 22.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 31.6%	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center\| 29.2%
Multi-Quest	October 22–24, 2014	606	± 4%	2.3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 10.9%	4%	—	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 25.9%	3.8%^[34]	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center\| 53.1%
SM&O Research	April 28–30, 2014	600	± ?	3.8%	10.5%	5.5%	11.7%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 28.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 28.9%	—	10.6%
PSB	April 2014	601	± ?	—	14%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 17%	8%	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 18%	14%^[35]	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center\| 29%
Magellan	March 24–26, 2014	600	± 4.1%	—	13.1%	4.6%	8.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 26.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 27.6%	—	19.8%
V/C Research	February 20–25, 2014	600	± 4%	—	11%	8%	9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 33%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 25%	—	15%
Kitchens Group**	February 10–12, 2014	600	± 4.2%	—	9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 21%	7%	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 26%	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center\| 38%
WPAOR^	November 12–14, 2013	800	± 3.5%	—	12%	2%	9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 20%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 25%	11%^[36]	11
WPAOR^	November 12–14, 2013	800	± 3.5%	—	22%	—	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 29%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 35%	—	14%
SM&O Research	November 6–12, 2013	600	± 4%	2.1%	18%	7.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 18.9%	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 30.3%	—	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center\| 22.9%
Magellan	October 2–4, 2012	2,862	± 1.9%	—	6.5%	—	7.2%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 29.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 31.1%	9.1%^[37]	16.7%

* Internal poll for the John Kennedy campaign
** Internal poll for the John Bel Edwards campaign
^ Internal poll for the Jay Dardenne campaign

Results

Runoff

Campaign

Файл:Sign supporting John Bel Edwards.jpg

Sign for John Bel Edwards

A debate between Edwards and Vitter was held on November 10 by Louisiana Public Broadcasting and the Council for a Better Louisiana.^[38]

Early voting was possible from November 7 until November 14. Despite having one fewer day due to Veterans Day, turnout was significantly higher compared to the primary election early voting, especially among black voters and in urban parishes.^[39]

Debates

Complete video of debate, November 10, 2015

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[40]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 13, 2015
Rothenberg Political Report^[41]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 6, 2015
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[42]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 19, 2015
DKE^[43]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 29, 2015

Polling

Шаблон:Graph:Chart

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	David Vitter (R)	John Bel Edwards (D)	Undecided
JMC Analytics	November 19, 2015	614	± 3.9%	43%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 47%	10%
RRH Elections	November 12–16, 2015	359	± 5%	42%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 48%	10%
JMC Analytics	November 14–16, 2015	635	± 3.9%	35%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 51%	13%
JMC Analytics	November 14–16, 2015	635	± 4%	38%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 54%	8%
Market Research Insight	November 11–14, 2015	600	± 4%	38%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 53%	9%
Hayride/MarblePort	November 11, 2015	978	± 3.1%	42%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 48%	10%
Market Research Insight	November 11, 2015	600	± 4%	38%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 52%	10%
UNO Survey Research Center	November 2–8, 2015	600	± 4%	34%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 56%	10%
Triumph Campaigns	November 5, 2015	1,818	± 3%	41%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 49%	10%
WVLA/JMC Analytics	October 28–31, 2015	600	± 4%	32%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 52%	16%
Market Research Insight	October 27–28, 2015	600	± 4.1%	38%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 54%	8%
Anzalone Liszt Grove	October 26–28, 2015	700	± 3.7%	40%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 52%	7%
KPLC/Raycom Media	October 7–13, 2015	602	± 4%	33%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 52%	?%
The Advocate/WWL-TV	September 20–23, 2015	800	± 3.46%	41%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 45%	?%
Public Policy Polling	September 21–22, 2015	616	± 4%	38%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 50%	12%
Public Policy Polling	September 25–28, 2014	1,141	± 2.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 50%	32%	18%
Public Policy Polling	June 26–29, 2014	664	± 3.8%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 52%	30%	17%
The Kitchen Group*	February 10–12, 2014	600	± 4.2%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 38%	32%	31%
Public Policy Polling	February 6–9, 2014	635	± 3.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 51%	30%	19%

*Internal poll for the John Bel Edwards campaign

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Dardenne vs. Landrieu

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Dardenne (R)	Mitch Landrieu (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	September 25–28, 2014	1,141	± 2.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 43%	39%	18%
Public Policy Polling	June 26–29, 2014	664	± 3.8%	43%	43%	15%
Public Policy Polling	February 6–9, 2014	635	± 3.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 46%	36%	18%
Public Policy Polling	August 16–19, 2013	721	± 3.6%	35%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 45%	20%
Public Policy Polling	February 8–12, 2013	603	± 4%	42%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 44%	15%

Duke vs. Edwards

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	David Duke (R)	Edwin Edwards (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 8–12, 2013	603	± 4%	15%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 62%	23%

Vitter vs. Landrieu

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	David Vitter (R)	Mitch Landrieu (D)	Undecided
SM&O Research	April 28–30, 2014	600	± ?	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 52.8%	41.8%	5.5%
Gravis Marketing	November 12–14, 2014	643	± 4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 54%	36%	10%
Public Policy Polling	September 25–28, 2014	1,141	± 2.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 47%	38%	14%
Gravis Marketing	September 5–9, 2014	426	± 5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 46%	44%	11%
Public Policy Polling	June 26–29, 2014	664	± 3.8%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 48%	44%	8%
Public Policy Polling	February 6–9, 2014	635	± 3.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 50%	37%	13%
Public Policy Polling	August 16–19, 2013	721	± 3.6%	42%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 45%	14%
Harper Polling	August 14–15, 2013	596	± 4.01%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 45%	43%	12%
Public Policy Polling	February 8–12, 2013	603	± 4%	44%	44%	13%
Magellan Strategies	October 2–4, 2012	2,862	± 1.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 45.2%	39.8%	15%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Edwards' win was the first statewide win for Democrats in Louisiana since Mary Landrieu won a third term to the Senate in 2008. He performed surprisingly well for a Democratic candidate in Louisiana, given that the Cook PVI for the state was R+12 at the time of the election and most Republican candidates won in landslides in prior statewide elections.Шаблон:Cn He performed especially well in Caddo Parish (home of Shreveport), East Baton Rouge Parish, (home of Baton Rouge), and in the reliably Democratic Orleans Parish, (home of New Orleans). Turnout was slightly higher in the November run-off than in the October jungle primary.

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box gain with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

By congressional district

Edwards won 5 of 6 congressional districts.^[44]

District	Edwards	Vitter	Representative
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|1st	43.30%	56.70%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Steve Scalise
rowspan=1 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|2nd	82.62%	17.38%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Cedric Richmond
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|3rd	50.11%	49.89%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Charles Boustany
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|4th	52.94%	47.06%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|John Fleming
rowspan=1 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|5th	53.78%	46.22%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Ralph Abraham
rowspan=1 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|6th	53.83%	46.17%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Garret Graves

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Шаблон:Louisiana elections Шаблон:2015 United States elections

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↑ Foster Campbell (D)
↑ Newell Normand (R) 10%, Mike Strain (R) 4%
↑ Rodney Alexander (R) 4%, Foster Campbell (D) 2%, John Georges (D) 2%, Jim Bernhard (D) 1%, Gerald Long (R) 1%, Newell Normand (R) 1%
↑ John Georges (D) 6%, Mike Strain (R) 3.1%
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[bel_gambit-3] 3,0 ^3,1 Шаблон:Cite web

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[rollcall1-6] Шаблон:Cite web

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[34] Foster Campbell (D)

[35] Newell Normand (R) 10%, Mike Strain (R) 4%

[36] Rodney Alexander (R) 4%, Foster Campbell (D) 2%, John Georges (D) 2%, Jim Bernhard (D) 1%, Gerald Long (R) 1%, Newell Normand (R) 1%

[37] John Georges (D) 6%, Mike Strain (R) 3.1%

[38] Шаблон:Cite news

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Английская Википедия:2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election

Содержание

Candidates

Republican Party

Filed

Declined

Democratic Party

Filed

Declined

Ineligible

Independents

Filed

Declined

Endorsements

Jungle primary

Polling

Results

Runoff

Campaign

Debates

Predictions

Polling

Results

By congressional district

See also

References

External links

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