Английская Википедия:2016 Ohio Republican presidential primary

Содержание

Текст

Текст

Текст

Текст

Текст

Текст

Текст

Текст

Текст

Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsOH The 2016 Ohio Republican presidential primary took place March 15 in the U.S. state of Ohio, as a part of the Republican Party's series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election. The Ohio primary was held alongside Republican primary elections in Florida, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina, along with the Democratic contest in Ohio.

The primary was won by the state's then governor, John Kasich.

Background

In the 2012 Republican primary elections, the Ohio primary was a winner-take-most primary scheduled for March 6. However, the state's winner, Mitt Romney, reached only 37% of the vote and thus won only 58% of the state's delegates. House Bill 153, signed by Governor Kasich, moved the primary to March 15 for the 2016 contest, in what would be dubbed a second Super Tuesday by several news networks. In addition, in mid-September, Ohio's Republican Party decided to make the state's 66 delegates completely winner-take-all, in order to maximize the state's power on the nominating convention and to avoid a similar problem to what happened in 2012. This was also expected to help John Kasich, as the state's governor.

The state of the campaign

Previous contests

Despite an early victory by Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump was seen as making steady progress towards the Republican nomination at the time. Trump was victorious in 7 of the contests on March 1, with Cruz seen as the only viable threat to Trump after victories in his home state of Texas and 3 other March 1 contests. Marco Rubio performed worse than anticipated on March 1, taking only Minnesota. On March 8, two primaries and a caucus were held in Hawaii, Michigan and Mississippi. Despite a poll from American Research Group that showed Kasich leading Trump in Michigan, Trump won all three contests.

Run-up to the election

Poll source	Date	1st	2nd	3rd	Other
Primary results	March 15, 2016	John Kasich 46.95%	Donald Trump 35.87%	Ted Cruz 13.31%	Marco Rubio 2.34%, Ben Carson 0.72%, Jeb Bush 0.27%, Mike Huckabee 0.25%, Chris Christie 0.12%, Carly Fiorina 0.11%, Rick Santorum 0.07%
ARG Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 400	March 12–13, 2016	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|John Kasich 44%	Donald Trump 38%	Ted Cruz 12%	Marco Rubio 2%, Undecided 4%
Monmouth University Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 503	March 11–13, 2016	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|John Kasich 40%	Donald Trump 35%	Ted Cruz 15%	Marco Rubio 5%, Other 1%, Undecided 4%
Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 721	March 8–13, 2016	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Donald Trump 38%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|John Kasich 38%	Ted Cruz 16%	Marco Rubio 3%, Undecided 4%
CBS News/YouGov Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 798	March 9–11, 2016	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|John Kasich 33%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Donald Trump 33%	Ted Cruz 27%	Marco Rubio 5%, No Preference 2%
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Margin of error: ± 4.1% Sample size: 564	March 4–10, 2016	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|John Kasich 39%	Donald Trump 33%	Ted Cruz 19%	Marco Rubio 6%
Fox News Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 806	March 5–8, 2016	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|John Kasich 34%	Donald Trump 29%	Ted Cruz 19%	Marco Rubio 7%, Undecided 5%, Other 3%, None of the above 2%
Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 685	March 2–7, 2016	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Donald Trump 38%	John Kasich 32%	Ted Cruz 16%	Marco Rubio 9%, Undecided 5%
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 3.9% Sample size: 638	March 4–6, 2016	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Donald Trump 38%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|John Kasich 35%	Ted Cruz 15%	Marco Rubio 5%, Undecided 5%
CNN/ORC Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 359	March 2–6, 2016	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Donald Trump 41%	John Kasich 35%	Ted Cruz 15%	Marco Rubio 7%
Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 3.6% Sample size: 759	February 16–20, 2016	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Donald Trump 31%	John Kasich 26%	Ted Cruz 21%	Marco Rubio 13%, Ben Carson 5%, Someone else 0%, DK/NA 5%
Baldwin Wallace University Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 440	February 11–20, 2016	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Donald Trump 31%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|John Kasich 29%	Ted Cruz 11%	Marco Rubio 10%, Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 3%, Don't Know 8%
Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 433	September 25 – October 5, 2015	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Donald Trump 23%	Ben Carson 18%	John Kasich 13%	Ted Cruz 11%, Carly Fiorina 10%, Marco Rubio 7%, Jeb Bush 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 0%, Would not vote 2%, DK/NA 6%
Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 5.1% Sample size: 371	August 7–18, 2015	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|John Kasich 27%	Donald Trump 21%	Ted Cruz 7%	Marco Rubio 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Scott Walker 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Rick Perry 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Don't know 11%
Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 413	June 4–15, 2015	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|John Kasich 19%	Jeb Bush 9%	Scott Walker 8%	Marco Rubio 7%, Rand Paul 7%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Ted Cruz 6%, Chris Christie 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Rick Perry 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Donald Trump 1%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 1%, Don't know 17%
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 411	June 4–7, 2015	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|John Kasich 19%	Ben Carson 13%	Scott Walker 13%	Jeb Bush 12%, Marco Rubio 12%, Rand Paul 9%, Mike Huckabee 6%, Ted Cruz 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Someone Else/Not Sure 8%
Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 404	March 17–28, 2015	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|John Kasich 20%	Ted Cruz 9%	Mike Huckbee 9%	Scott Walker 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Ben Carson 8%, Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Marco Rubio 5%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 1% Undecided 15%
		Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|John Kasich 22%	Scott Walker 10%	Ted Cruz 9%	Mike Huckabee 9%, Ben Carson 8%, Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rick Perry 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 1% Undecided 17%
		Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|John Kasich 22%	Ted Cruz 11%	Jeb Bush 9%	Ben Carson 9%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Rand Paul 7%, Marco Rubio 6%, Chris Christie 5%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 1% Undecided 15%
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive Margin of error: ± 5.3% Sample size: 337	January 22 – February 1, 2015	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Mitt Romney 15%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|John Kasich 11%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Scott Walker 10%	Jeb Bush 9%, Rand Paul 8%, Ben Carson 7%, Ted Cruz 5%, Mike Huckabee 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Marco Rubio 3%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Perry 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 2%, Undecided 18%
		Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|John Kasich 14%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Scott Walker 11%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Jeb Bush 10%	Rand Paul 10%, Ben Carson 8%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Ted Cruz 6%, Chris Christie 6%, Marco Rubio 4%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 2%, Undecided 20%
Magellan Strategies Margin of error: ± 6% Sample size: 300	April 14–15, 2014	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Mike Huckabee 17%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Rand Paul 15%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Jeb Bush 13%	Chris Christie 13%, Ted Cruz 12%, John Kasich 10%, Marco Rubio 5%, Scott Walker 4%, Undecided 11%
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 5.2% Sample size: 357	Aug. 16–19, 2013	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Chris Christie 17%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Rand Paul 17%	Jeb Bush 10%	Marco Rubio 9%, John Kasich 8%, Paul Ryan 8%, Ted Cruz 6%, Bobby Jindal 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Someone Else/Undecided 17%

The opinion polls during early March showed a narrow lead for Trump over Governor Kasich. These polls found approximately 10% support for Marco Rubio, in a distant fourth place. Seeing that many Rubio voters also preferred Governor Kasich as "establishment" voters, Rubio's communications director encouraged Rubio voters to vote for Kasich on March 11. The strategy seemed to work, as Kasich drew narrowly ahead in the polls immediately before the election. Kasich was seen as a slight favorite to take the state immediately before the primary.

Results

Шаблон:2016OHRep Marco Rubio suspended his campaign after March 15's contests, although this was more based on a poor Florida primary as opposed to the Ohio contest.