Английская Википедия:2016 United States Senate election in Illinois
Шаблон:See alsoШаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Illinois The 2016 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Illinois, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Prior to the election, incumbent senator Mark Kirk (R) was considered to be the most vulnerable senator among those seeking re-election in 2016[1][2] due to Illinois's heavy Democratic partisan balance with news networks and analysts expecting a Democratic pickup.
Party primary elections were held on March 15, 2016. Kirk lost for re-election to a second full term [3] to Democrat Tammy Duckworth, the U.S. representative from Illinois's 8th congressional district and a decorated combat veteran of the Iraq War. Duckworth became the first woman elected to the U.S. Senate from Illinois since Carol Moseley Braun in 1992. Despite his loss, Kirk outperformed Trump in the concurrent presidential election by around 2 percent.
Election information
The primaries and general elections coincided with those for United States President and House, as well as those for state offices.
Background
In 2010, Republican Mark Kirk was elected to the Senate for Illinois, defeating Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias by 59,220 votes out of more than 3.7 million votes cast.
Kirk suffered a severe stroke in January 2012 that kept him away from the Senate until January 2013.[4] In June 2013 he confirmed that he was "planning" to run for re-election,[5][6] but there was speculation that he might retire,[7] particularly in the wake of the departure of several of his senior staff.[8][9] Republican Bruce Rauner was elected governor in 2014, and a possible scenario was that Kirk would resign early, allowing Rauner to appoint another Republican as the replacement.[10] Potential replacements included U.S. Representatives Bob Dold, Adam Kinzinger, Aaron Schock, and Peter Roskam, State Senators Jason Barickman and Christine Radogno, hedge fund manager and founder and CEO of Citadel LLC Kenneth C. Griffin, and businesswoman Beth Christie.[7][9] In November 2014, Kirk reiterated that he was going to run for re-election.[3]
Kirk was identified by The Washington Post, The New York Times, Politico, The Huffington Post, Slate and Roll Call as one of the most vulnerable Republican senators up for re-election in 2016.[11][12][13][14][15][16]
Turnout
For the primary election, turnout was 41.94%, with 3,215,334 votes cast.[17][18] For the general election, turnout was 68.39%, with 5,491,878 votes cast.[19][18]
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
Removed from ballot
Withdrawn
Declined
- William J. Kelly, television producer, nominee for IL-01 in 1994, candidate for Illinois Comptroller in 2010 and candidate for Mayor of Chicago in 2015[25][26][27]
- Bobby Schilling, former U.S. Representative[28]
- Joe Walsh, conservative radio talk show host and former U.S. Representative[29][30][31][32][33]
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Kirk |
James Marter |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Tribune | March 2–6, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 65% | 22% | 12% |
| SIU Simon Institute | February 15–20, 2016 | 306 | ± 5.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center|53% | 14% | 33% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Tammy Duckworth, U.S. Representative[34][35][36][37]
- Napoleon Harris, state senator and candidate for Illinois's 2nd congressional district in 2013[38][39]
- Andrea Zopp, former president and CEO of the Chicago Urban League and former Chicago Board of Education member[40][41]
Withdrawn
- Tio Hardiman, former director of CeaseFire and candidate for governor in 2014 (ran for IL-01, then withdrew to run for Cook County Clerk of Court[42][43][44])
- Robert Marshall, radiologist and perennial candidate (running for IL-06)[45][46]
Declined
- Daniel Biss, state senator (running for state comptroller)[47][48]
- Richard Boykin, Cook County Commissioner[49][50]
- Cheri Bustos, U.S. Representative[6][16][35][37]
- Jacqueline Y. Collins, state senator[51]
- Tom Dart, Sheriff of Cook County[13]
- Bill Foster, U.S. Representative[52][53]
- Mike Frerichs, Illinois Treasurer[30]
- Daniel Hynes, former Illinois Comptroller, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2004 and candidate for governor of Illinois in 2010[30]
- Robin Kelly, U.S. Representative[54]
- Lisa Madigan, Illinois Attorney General[6]
- Michelle Obama, First Lady of the United States[55]
- Mike Quigley, U.S. Representative[56]
- Pat Quinn, former governor of Illinois[8]
- Kwame Raoul, state senator[8][57]
- Jan Schakowsky, U.S. Representative[34][58]
- Sheila Simon, former lieutenant governor of Illinois and nominee for Illinois Comptroller in 2014[59][60]
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tammy Duckworth |
Andrea Zopp |
Napoleon Harris |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIU Simon Institute | February 15–20, 2016 | 422 | ± 4.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | 6% | 4% | 37% |
| Public Policy Polling | July 20–21, 2015 | 409 | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 59% | 10% | — | 31% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Third party candidates
On July 6, the Green Party candidate and the Libertarian Party candidate were announced as having made the ballot for November after no objections were filed against their petitions. However, objections against two others were filed, namely: the Constitution Party candidate Chad Koppie, due to his name being on a petition slate with Constitution Party presidential candidate Darrell Castle who turned in fewer than the required petitions needed,[61] and against Independent candidate Eric Conklin. Neither Koppie nor Conklin are likely to receive ballot access after a review of their petitions.[62][63]
Constitution Party (C) (Write in)
- Chad Koppie, farmer and vice president of Kane County Regional Board of School Trustees
Libertarian Party (L)
- Kent McMillen[64]
Green Party (G)
- Scott Summers, attorney and former member of the McHenry County College Board of Trustees[64]
Independent (I)
- Eric M. Conklin, law enforcement officer
General election
- Mark Kirk (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
- Tammy Duckworth (D), U.S. Representative
- Chad Koppie (C) (Write-in)
- Kenton McMillen (L)
- Scott Summers (G)
Debates
| Dates | Location | Kirk | Duckworth | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 3, 2016 | Chicago, Illinois | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
| October 27, 2016 | Springfield, Illinois | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
| November 4, 2016 | Chicago, Illinois | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Campaign
Kirk had multiple factors working against him, as no Republican had won an Illinois US Senate race during a presidential election year since 1972, and he had made a number of gaffes during the campaign. He had exaggerated his Iraq War record on his campaign website,[65] and during a debate, Kirk made a racially charged remark about Duckworth's familial military background.[66] Additionally, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump was unpopular in Chicago and its suburbs, and Kirk refused to endorse or vote for him, instead writing in former United States Secretary of State Colin Powell.[67] Kirk also had a mostly liberal voting record in the Senate, favoring gay marriage, an assault weapons ban, and he had voted against defunding and repealing portions of Obamacare in 2015. Due to these factors, Kirk alienated the Democratic, Independent, and Republican voters whom he had previously won over in his 2010 campaign. Unusually, the normally Republican-leaning editorial board of the Chicago Tribune endorsed Duckworth, as they believed that the health problems that Kirk had suffered as a result of his stroke made him a less effective Senator.[68] This election had been cited as historic as both major party nominees had physical disabilities.[69]
Endorsements
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[70] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[71] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[72] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[73] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[74] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Mark Kirk (R) |
Tammy Duckworth (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,823 | ± 4.6% | 39% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 56% | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 1,505 | ± 4.6% | 39% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 56% | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 1,120 | ± 4.6% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54% | — | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 997 | ± 4.6% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 911 | ± 4.6% | 39% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% | — | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 1,003 | ± 4.6% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 57% | — | 5% |
| Emerson College | October 27–30, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.3% | 36% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54% | 5% | 5% |
| Loras College Шаблон:Webarchive | October 26–27, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 34% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% | 6% | 18% |
| The Illinois Poll - Victory Research | October 16–18, 2016 | 1,200 | ± 2.8% | 39% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 3% | 8% |
| GS Strategy Group (R-Kirk) | October 4–5, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 37% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% | 6% | 16% |
| Southern Illinois University | Sept 27–Oct 2, 2016 | 865 | ± 3.3% | 34% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | 8% | 10% |
| Normington, Petts and Associates (D) | September 27–29, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 37% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | — | 17% |
| Emerson College | September 19–20, 2016 | 700 | ± 3.6% | 39% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% | 11% | 9% |
| Loras College Шаблон:Webarchive | September 13–16, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 36% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% | — | 22% |
| Normington, Petts and Associates (D) | August 1–4, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 37% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% | — | 19% |
| The Illinois Poll - Victory Research | July 14–16, 2016 | 1,200 | ± 2.8% | 37% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 4% | 12% |
| Normington, Petts and Associates (D) | July 11–14, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 40% | — | 22% |
| Basswood Research (R) | July 11–12, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 42% | 40% | — | 18% |
| GS Strategy Group (R-Kirk) | March 30–31, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | — | 17% |
| End Citizens United | September 10–14, 2015 | 948 | ± 3.2% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling | July 20–21, 2015 | 931 | ± 3.2% | 36% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% | — | 22% |
| Ogden & Fry | June 23, 2015 | 598 | ± 4.1% | 27% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% | — | 29% |
| We Ask America | December 18, 2014 | 1,003 | ± 3.0% | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | — | 9% |
- with Andrea Zopp
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Kirk (R) |
Andrea Zopp (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | July 20–21, 2015 | 931 | ± 3.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 38% | 29% | — | 32% |
- with Lisa Madigan
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Kirk (R) |
Lisa Madigan (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | November 22–25, 2013 | 557 | ± 4.2% | 41% | 41% | 19% |
- with Michelle Obama
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Kirk (R) |
Michelle Obama (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | March 21–22, 2014 | 806 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 42% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 26–28, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | 9% |
- with Pat Quinn
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Kirk (R) |
Pat Quinn (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| We Ask America | December 18, 2014 | 1,003 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% | 36% | 9% |
Results
The result was a landslide victory for Tammy Duckworth. Pre-election polling showed Kirk would be easily defeated by Duckworth, and the polls were proven right when Duckworth was declared the winner quickly after polls closed in Illinois. Duckworth performed extremely well in the heavily populated and strongly Democratic Cook County, home of Chicago. Duckworth also did well in Champaign, East St. Louis and Carbondale. Kirk did do well in rural parts of the state, but it was nowhere near enough to offset his weakness in the Chicago metropolitan area. The Chicago 'collar counties' — among them Kirk's home county of Lake County — previously voted for Kirk, but easily flipped to Duckworth. Duckworth was sworn in at 12:00 P.M. EST on January 3, 2017. The Libertarian and Green candidates polled well, winning three and two percent of the vote respectively.
Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box gain with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- DeKalb (largest city: DeKalb)
- DuPage (largest city: Aurora)
- Gallatin (largest city: Shawneetown)
- Kane (largest city: Aurora)
- Lake (largest city: Waukegan)
- McDonough (largest city: Macomb)
- Will (largest city: Joliet)
- Calhoun (largest village: Hardin)
- Madison (largest city: Granite City)
- Knox (largest city: Galesburg)
- Champaign (largest city: Champaign)
- Rock Island (largest city: Moline)
By congressional district
References
External links
- Official campaign websites
- Mark Kirk (R) for Senate Шаблон:Small
- Tammy Duckworth (D) for Senate Шаблон:Small
- Eric M. Conklin (I) for Senate Шаблон:Small
- Chad Koppie (C) for Senate Шаблон:Small
- Kent McMillen (L) for Senate Шаблон:Small
- Scott Summers (G) for Senate Шаблон:Small
Шаблон:2016 United States elections Шаблон:Illinois elections
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- ↑ Sweet, Lynn (February 17, 2015) - "Former Rep. Joe Walsh 'Looking At' Bid to Oust Sen. Mark Kirk" Шаблон:Webarchive. Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved February 21, 2015.
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