Английская Википедия:2016 United States Senate election in Indiana

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:See also Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsIN The 2016 United States Senate election in Indiana was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Indiana. The election was held alongside the presidential election and 2016 Indiana elections.

Republican incumbent Dan Coats, who served in the Senate since 2011 and previously from 1989 to 1999, ultimately chose to not seek reelection. U.S. Representative Todd Young won the May 3 Republican primary to succeed him, with former U.S. Representative Baron Hill winning the Democratic nomination. However, Hill withdrew from the race on July 11, with former senator Evan Bayh entering the race to regain the seat, which he held from 1999 to 2011.

The Indiana Democratic Party formally chose Bayh as Hill's replacement on July 22. Following his entry, Bayh was initially seen as the frontrunner in the race. However, during the campaign, he faced heavy criticism over his post-Senate career as a lobbyist, as well as questions about his residency in the state. Young ultimately won by a comfortable margin, defeating Bayh in the general election by 10 points.

Background

Republican Senator Dan Coats, who had served in the Senate since 2011, and previously from 1989 to 1999, stated that he planned to run for re-election, but in March 2014 his chief of staff said that Coats "has decided not to decide whether to run again until after the [2014] midterm elections".

On March 24, 2015, Coats announced that he would not run for re-election, citing that he would be of advanced age (just under 80 years old) by the end of the 2017–2023 term, should he complete it.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Marlin Stutzman, U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010
• Todd Young, U.S. Representative

Withdrawn

• Kevin Grant, financial consultant and candidate for IN-04 in 2014 (running for IN-04)
• Eric Holcomb, Senator Coats' chief of staff and former chairman of the Indiana Republican Party (appointed and ran for Lieutenant Governor before replacing Mike Pence as the nominee for Governor)

Declined

• Greg Ballard, former mayor of Indianapolis
• Jim Banks, state senator (running for IN-03)
• Brian Bosma, Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives
• Susan Brooks, U.S. Representative and former United States Attorney for the Southern District of Indiana (running for re-election)
• Larry Bucshon, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)
• Dan Coats, incumbent U.S. Senator
• Mitch Daniels, president of Purdue University and former governor of Indiana
• Mike Delph, state senator
• Richard Lugar, former U.S. Senator
• Jim Merritt, state senator
• Luke Messer, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)
• Mike Pence, Governor of Indiana and former U.S. Representative (running for Vice President of the United States)
• Todd Rokita, U.S. Representative and former secretary of state of Indiana (running for re-election)
• Jackie Walorski, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)
• Greg Zoeller, Indiana Attorney General (running for IN-09)

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Todd Young	Marlin Stutzman	Undecided
NBC/WSJ/Marist	April 26–28, 2016	645	± 3.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56%	24%	20%
IPFW/Downs Center	April 13–27, 2016	400	± 4.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 42%	34%	24%
WTHR/Howey	April 18–21, 2016	507	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43%	31%	26%

Results

Файл:Indiana U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2016.svg

Results by county: Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Baron Hill, former U.S. Representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1990 (withdrew after winning primary)

Withdrawn

• John Dickerson, former nonprofit organization director

Declined

• Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend
• André Carson, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)
• Brad Ellsworth, former U.S. Representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010
• Christina Hale, state representative (running for lieutenant governor)
• John Gregg, former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives and nominee for governor in 2012 (running for governor)
• Thomas McDermott Jr., Mayor of Hammond
• Bart Peterson, former mayor of Indianapolis
• Glenda Ritz, Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction (running for re-election)
• Jonathan Weinzapfel, former mayor of Evansville and nominee for Indiana's 8th congressional district in 1996

Democratic State Central Committee selection

On July 11, 2016, CNN's Tom LoBianco announced that Bayh would enter the race to regain his old Senate seat and Hill would drop out and withdraw his name from the November ballot. Hill soon after released a statement formally dropping out of the race saying he did not "...want to stand in the way of Democrats winning Indiana and the U.S. Senate. That would not be fair to my party or my state. And, the stakes are far too high in this election not to put my country above my own political ambitions," without explicitly endorsing Bayh. The first candidate to declare was Bob Kern, a frequent candidate for Congress in various districts around the state. Bayh officially declared for the race July 13. The Indiana Democratic Party's State Central Committee chose Bayh as Hill's replacement, for the general election.

Candidates

• Evan Bayh, former U.S. Senator and Governor of Indiana
• Bob Kern, candidate for IN-7 in 2012, IN-2 in 2014, and IN-9 2016

General election

Candidates

• Evan Bayh (D), former U.S. Senator and Governor of Indiana
• Todd Young (R), U.S. Representative
• Lucy Brenton (L)

Debates

Dates	Location	Young	Bayh	Brenton	Link
October 18, 2016	Indianapolis, Indiana	Participant	Participant	Participant	Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 3, 2016
Daily Kos	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 7, 2016

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Todd Young (R)	Evan Bayh (D)	Lucy Brenton (L)	Undecided
SurveyMonkey	November 1–7, 2016	1,700	± 4.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53%	42%	—	5%
SurveyMonkey	Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016	1,383	± 4.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52%	43%	—	5%
WTHR/Howey	November 1–3, 2016	600	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46%	41%	6%	7%
SurveyMonkey	Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016	923	± 4.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52%	43%	—	5%
SurveyMonkey	Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016	790	± 4.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51%	44%	—	5%
Gravis Marketing	Oct 30–Nov 1, 2016	399	± 4.9%	37%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 40%	7%	16%
SurveyMonkey	Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016	638	± 4.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51%	46%	—	3%
SurveyMonkey	October 25–31, 2016	674	± 4.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50%	46%	—	4%
Monmouth University	October 27–30, 2016	402	± 4.9%	45%	45%	4%	5%
Gravis Marketing	October 22–24, 2016	596	± 2.3%	37%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 39%	7%	17%
WISH/Ball State Hoosier Survey	October 10–16, 2016	544	± 3.9%	43%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49%	—	6%
Monmouth University	October 11–13, 2016	402	± 4.9%	42%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48%	6%	4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)	October 9–11, 2016	609	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 40%	39%	8%	13%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid	October 7–10, 2016	1,123	± 3.0%	43%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46%	—	11%
WTHR/Howey	October 3–5, 2016	600	± 4.0%	41%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42%	8%	9%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)	October 3, 2016	–	–	38%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42%	7%	13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)	September 21, 2016	–	–	39%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44%	9%	8%
WTHR/Howey Шаблон:Webarchive	September 6–8, 2016	600	± 4.0%	40%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44%	5%	11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)	September 1, 2016	–	–	35%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44%	6%	15%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bayh)	August 15–18, 2016	801	± 3.5%	39%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55%	—	6%
Monmouth University	August 13–16, 2016	403	± 4.9%	41%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48%	4%	7%
Global Strategy Group (D-SMP)	August 10–14, 2016	801	± 3.5%	36%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54%	—	10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)	August 8, 2016	–	–	35%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48%	7%	10%
Expedition Strategies (R-Gregg)	August 1–3, 2016	600	± 4.0%	32%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 58%	—	9%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-DSCC)	July 12–14, 2016	602	± 4.1%	33%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54%	—	13%

with Baron Hill

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Todd Young (R)	Baron Hill (D)	Undecided
Bellwether Research	May 11–15, 2016	600	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 36%	22%	30%
WTHR/Howey	April 18–21, 2016	500	± 4.3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48%	30%	22%

with Marlin Stutzman

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Marlin Stutzman (R)	Baron Hill (D)	Undecided
WTHR/Howey	April 18–21, 2016	500	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 39%	36%	25%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Porter (Largest city: Portage)
• St. Joseph (Largest city: South Bend)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Vermillion (largest city: Clinton)
• Sullivan (Largest city: Sullivan)

External links

Official campaign websites

• Todd Young (R) for Senate
• Evan Bayh (D) for Senate
• Lucy Brenton (L) for Senate